AquaBliss

Fanduel Divisional Round Weekend

78 posts in this topic

Getting a bit trickier to build a solid cash LU here as every team has studs that are priced accordingly.

Who's going to fall into the Russel Wilson trap again?  Hard not to against ATL but I have a feeling it'll be the Rawls show after the potential he displayed last weekend. 

This is the last fun NFL DFS weekend of the season.  FD and DK will have matches available the following week but with only 2 games, the variations in LU's will be sparse. 

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1 hour ago, AquaBliss said:

Getting a bit trickier to build a solid cash LU here as every team has studs that are priced accordingly.

Who's going to fall into the Russel Wilson trap again?  Hard not to against ATL but I have a feeling it'll be the Rawls show after the potential he displayed last weekend. 

This is the last fun NFL DFS weekend of the season.  FD and DK will have matches available the following week but with only 2 games, the variations in LU's will be sparse. 

Didn't realize RWilson was a trap??

My cash LU went for 142.46 and made me a good bit last week

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True, RW was a value play but Aaron Rodgers (highest price QB) actually gave more bang for the buck.

Russell Wilson = .00216 points per $

Big Ben = .00175 points per $

Aaron Rodgers = .00354 points per $

Most of my cash LU opponents did use RW though, while GPP winners picked AR. 

The reason I called it a trap is because he has a very favorable matchup, but I think based on last weekends results, my gut is telling me to go Brady or Ryan (both of whom have less favorable matchups and of course cost more).

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3 hours ago, Megla said:

Didn't realize RWilson was a trap??

My cash LU went for 142.46 and made me a good bit last week

It was certainly better than all the 9s and 10s he's thrown up. Just seems like my LUs this year have pretty much sucked with him. This weekend I had him with Bell and Brown and put up 114. Awful. 

His price went up this week and while I'll have him in a few gpps he will not see a lineup I invest more money in. The other qbs are pretty much all in the 8000s with him. Probably a good reason for you guys to play him since I won't. Well until the IVC has him #1 lol.

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Don't know how much ATL's DEF has improved the last week and a half, but, I seem to recall that the DEF was not their strong suit this season. To me, without even looking at Vegas yet, I'd have to think that this game could have the highest O/U for the weekend. I qualify that with I can't say for certain that ATL's very potent offense will be enough to overcome SEA's DEF. But I can see the Seahawks potentially needing to run more plays & conversely, giving Wilson more opportunities. I think Wilson would be a decent choice for either cash or GPP. Personally, I'm probably steering away from cash this week & will be using Wilson in a few GPP's.

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14 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

True, RW was a value play but Aaron Rodgers (highest price QB) actually gave more bang for the buck.

Russell Wilson = .00216 points per $

Big Ben = .00175 points per $

Aaron Rodgers = .00354 points per $

Most of my cash LU opponents did use RW though, while GPP winners picked AR. 

The reason I called it a trap is because he has a very favorable matchup, but I think based on last weekends results, my gut is telling me to go Brady or Ryan (both of whom have less favorable matchups and of course cost more).

I'm not questioning the H-values of the other QBs from last weekend, I just don't agree with the statement

"Who's going to fall into the Russel Wilson trap again?"

Specifically the "again' part, inferring that he was a bad play the previous week.

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26 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Don't know how much ATL's DEF has improved the last week and a half, but, I seem to recall that the DEF was not their strong suit this season. To me, without even looking at Vegas yet, I'd have to think that this game could have the highest O/U for the weekend. I qualify that with I can't say for certain that ATL's very potent offense will be enough to overcome SEA's DEF. But I can see the Seahawks potentially needing to run more plays & conversely, giving Wilson more opportunities. I think Wilson would be a decent choice for either cash or GPP. Personally, I'm probably steering away from cash this week & will be using Wilson in a few GPP's.

Last I checked, both this game and GB/Dall are around 51-52 for an o/u. 

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17 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

Getting a bit trickier to build a solid cash LU here as every team has studs that are priced accordingly.

Who's going to fall into the Russel Wilson trap again?  Hard not to against ATL but I have a feeling it'll be the Rawls show after the potential he displayed last weekend. 

This is the last fun NFL DFS weekend of the season.  FD and DK will have matches available the following week but with only 2 games, the variations in LU's will be sparse. 

Trouble I am having is that the Ds have gotten better, and there really isn't one or two that stand out to target. 

They made it more interesting b/c the QBs are closer together in pricing than they usually seem to be. 

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Made two initial LUs before the value charts are out.  ASmith at home is just too cheap at 6800 to pass up, as it makes room for so many other studs.  He also usually rushes a bit more in the playoffs, and there's a chance Andy Reid dials up 50 pass attempts as he did last year against NE.  

1) Smith

Zeke, Freeman

Baldwin, Cobb, Sanu  --> punt at WR3

Kelce, Gosk, Pats

 

2) Smith

Zeke, Coleman --> punt at RB2

Baldwin, Dez, Cobb

Kelce, Santos, Pats

 

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Hey guys, question about your defenses/cash lineups this week (I know most will be playing mostly tourneys). Is there any way we're not playing Pats D?

Obviously would prefer not to pay so much (5100 on FD) but in cash I just don't think there's any other way to go in cash.

I mean sure you could throw in Chiefs/Steelers/Falcons in tourneys, but that means you are betting against Ben/Bell/Brown, Chiefs at home (Smith rarely turns ball over), and Russell Wilson who doesn't really turn it over either.  And no I do not have the balls to start a defense against Brady or Rodgers.

Thoughts?

 

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these are my 2 no reaearch from the gut lineups

cash- rogers bell zeke cobb edelman richardson cook santos falcons

gpp- ryan bell coleman julio baldwin allison toilio crosby kc

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2 hours ago, kdreezyy4 said:

Hey guys, question about your defenses/cash lineups this week (I know most will be playing mostly tourneys). Is there any way we're not playing Pats D?

Obviously would prefer not to pay so much (5100 on FD) but in cash I just don't think there's any other way to go in cash.

I mean sure you could throw in Chiefs/Steelers/Falcons in tourneys, but that means you are betting against Ben/Bell/Brown, Chiefs at home (Smith rarely turns ball over), and Russell Wilson who doesn't really turn it over either.  And no I do not have the balls to start a defense against Brady or Rodgers.

Thoughts?

 

I think the best alternative to the Pats is to play the Chiefs at home, and stack with T. Hill.  If he runs back a PR, you get double points.  As good as he is, I think it's more likely that the Pats force Brock into multiple turnovers, but it's a pretty decent high risk, high reward play (but will also be fairly popular in the GPPs).  

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Well, looks like MT loves D Adams this week, really skews any LU combo you place in the current IVC

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

these are my 2 no reaearch from the gut lineups

cash- rogers bell zeke cobb edelman richardson cook santos falcons

gpp- ryan bell coleman julio baldwin allison toilio crosby kc

This is almost exactly what I was starting with, but Cobb is really giving me pause for some reason.  I know he just blew up, but he also had a lot of history this year of being a non-factor with Nelson out too. 

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True but same can be said of Adams and Adams rarely has 2 good games in a row.

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29 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

True but same can be said of Adams and Adams rarely has 2 good games in a row.

He's scored 10+ FD points the last 3 weeks

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One option I've been kicking around is punting at RB2 because of Bell's high price.  It allows you to stack studs in other positions:

Rodgers/Zeke/James White/Julio/Davante/Baldwin/Witten/Boswell/Pats

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Crazy LU for GPPs

Smith/Bell/Zeke/Adams/Baldwin/TWilliams/Witt/Gostk/NE

I think I like it

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18 minutes ago, Megla said:

Crazy LU for GPPs

Smith/Bell/Zeke/Adams/Baldwin/TWilliams/Witt/Gostk/NE

I think I like it

That's basically my cash lineup.

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I don't any reason not to build a cash lineup around Bell/Elliott/Adams/Cobb/Cook/Crosby/NE D.

You can go Dak/Richardson to complete it.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

I don't any reas not to build a cash lineup . around Bell/Elliott/Adams/Cobb/Cook/Crosby/NE D.

You can go Dak/Richardson to complete it.

That is a ton of eggs in one basket for cash  

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6 hours ago, Thimblerig said:

One option I've been kicking around is punting at RB2 because of Bell's high price.  It allows you to stack studs in other positions:

Rodgers/Zeke/James White/Julio/Davante/Baldwin/Witten/Boswell/Pats

Just put together an alternative lineup for tournament play.

Dak.  GB gives up a lot of points to quarterbacks, and Dak is a threat to run one in.  With the Pack offense on the field, he might have to throw the ball a lot.  Could make a case for a lot of the QBs -- Rodgers and Wilson jump to mind -- but a decent value play.

Le'Veon and Zeke.  Two studs that could/should score over 20 points.  Beyond these two, I'm not sure how to bet the RBs.  I do like Blount, but worry that he'll be splitting touches with White and Lewis.  Not sure what to do with the Falcons' backs, who could fare well, but Sea has a tough defense.

Davante Adams.  Gotta grab a slice of the Packers' passing offense.

Doug Baldwin.  Same.  The Falcons' pass defense isn't that good, and Baldwin could play a sustaining role on the team.

Michael Floyd.  Here's where I'm punting.  Figured that few folks will have him, and Brady could target an excited, talented WR who wants to prove himself in his last few games.

Witten.  Don't love him, but he presents a reasonable floor.

Steelers.  I'd prefer NE or KC, in that order, but couldn't figure out how to squeeze them in.  With these offenses, I'm not sure that I want to downgrade some of my other starters to upgrade at defense.

Novak or Boswell or Santos.  Cheap as possible at kicker.  I like Bryant quite a bit, but I'd rather not pay an extra $700.  

Guys I worry about missing at the price:  

1.  A better QB.  Rodgers and Wilson are reasonably priced, but GB usually -- though not always -- gives up points to QBs.  

2.  Brown/Julio/Cobb/Tyreek.  Cobb worries me -- before last week, he's been at best hit or miss, so I'm not sure about the value.  Brown or Julio could easily blow up, but I trust Zeke and Bell more.

3.  A NE running back.  But which one?

Thoughts?

Edited by Thimblerig

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I'm thinking the NE game favors Edelman, Lewis/White and Bennett in the middle of the field, over the outside WRs and Blount due to Houston have a solid perimeter pass defense and run defense.  

Lewis got pretty decent touch numbers (double digit run attempts) in the last few weeks of the regular season in order to get him primed.  Always difficult to guess with Bill, but I think he's the primary back for this game until Blount takes over in the second half to grind down the clock.  

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2 hours ago, karmarooster said:

I'm thinking the NE game favors Edelman, Lewis/White and Bennett in the middle of the field, over the outside WRs and Blount due to Houston have a solid perimeter pass defense and run defense.  

Lewis got pretty decent touch numbers (double digit run attempts) in the last few weeks of the regular season in order to get him primed.  Always difficult to guess with Bill, but I think he's the primary back for this game until Blount takes over in the second half to grind down the clock.  

Again, WTF knows what Bill will come up with, but I was looking at FantasyInsiders and it looks like Houston is average vs #1 WR and "other" WR, and only 26th vs. pass catching Rbs.  #2 vs. TEs.  It's a struggle every week with NE as they usually have one of the highest implied totals, but are one of the most unpredictable teams.  I think best bet might be to target the Rbs, but Edelman could also go off.  As you said, Lewis has averaged something like 17 touches/g over the last 3 weeks of the season (maybe even outtouching Blount?), so he is going to be my punt in the gpps as of now.  

I have liked a couple LUs that I have seen using something like Stud RB paired with Lewis + NE D and then going game stack at QB/WR/TE using the 2 games that people think might shoot out in GB/Dall or Sea/Atl. 

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If you want to stack anyone for a cash LU .......... heck, any line-up, this week, consider the following from Rich Hribar at Rotoworld about ATL & Matt Ryan:

"Ryan already touched up Seattle on the road for 335 yards and three touchdowns for 22.6 fantasy points in Week 6, and that was with Earl Thomas patrolling the back end. In the five games since Thomas was injured, Seattle has allowed 19 pass completions of 20 or more yards (tied for the most in the league) after allowing 35 through their opening 12 games of the season (ninth best in the league). Going downfield is what Ryan did best this season as he ranked second in completions (69) and touchdowns (15) on connections of 20 plus yards and led the league in passing yardage on such completions (2,210 yards)."

 

Gonna have lots of exposure to the Falcons this week.

 

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11 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

If you want to stack anyone for a cash LU .......... heck, any line-up, this week, consider the following from Rich Hribar at Rotoworld about ATL & Matt Ryan:

"Ryan already touched up Seattle on the road for 335 yards and three touchdowns for 22.6 fantasy points in Week 6, and that was with Earl Thomas patrolling the back end. In the five games since Thomas was injured, Seattle has allowed 19 pass completions of 20 or more yards (tied for the most in the league) after allowing 35 through their opening 12 games of the season (ninth best in the league). Going downfield is what Ryan did best this season as he ranked second in completions (69) and touchdowns (15) on connections of 20 plus yards and led the league in passing yardage on such completions (2,210 yards)."

 

Gonna have lots of exposure to the Falcons this week.

 

Ryan/Bell/Zeke/JJ/Fuller/PRich/Cook/Bailey/NE

For those of you who want to swing for the fences

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26 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

If you want to stack anyone for a cash LU .......... heck, any line-up, this week, consider the following from Rich Hribar at Rotoworld about ATL & Matt Ryan:

"Ryan already touched up Seattle on the road for 335 yards and three touchdowns for 22.6 fantasy points in Week 6, and that was with Earl Thomas patrolling the back end. In the five games since Thomas was injured, Seattle has allowed 19 pass completions of 20 or more yards (tied for the most in the league) after allowing 35 through their opening 12 games of the season (ninth best in the league). Going downfield is what Ryan did best this season as he ranked second in completions (69) and touchdowns (15) on connections of 20 plus yards and led the league in passing yardage on such completions (2,210 yards)."

 

Gonna have lots of exposure to the Falcons this week.

 

Been looking at the Falcons and Ryan, but what I am running into is who besides Julio do you target or do you just run Ryan/Julio/Freeman or Coleman out there?  I know Gabriel is coming off an injury, but he doesn't excite me a ton either, and they don't have a TE. 

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16 minutes ago, Megla said:

Ryan/Bell/Zeke/JJ/Fuller/PRich/Cook/Bailey/NE

For those of you who want to swing for the fences

I like it.  I have also been looking at Kearse as a punt play.  He had the same activity/targets as Richardson did last week and Baldwin stole that TD from him too. 

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19 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Been looking at the Falcons and Ryan, but what I am running into is who besides Julio do you target or do you just run Ryan/Julio/Freeman or Coleman out there?  I know Gabriel is coming off an injury, but he doesn't excite me a ton either, and they don't have a TE. 

Don't be dissin Hooper

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My super risky $1 gpp lineup

Ryan Coleman Ware Julio Brown Adams Written Crosby KC

Probably just playing $4 in cash games and $3 in gpp. I think Dak and Rogers will be the chalk for cash so going to make gpp lineups with Ryan, Wilson and Ben.

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28 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

My super risky $1 gpp lineup

Ryan Coleman Ware Julio Brown Adams Written Crosby KC

Probably just playing $4 in cash games and $3 in gpp. I think Dak and Rogers will be the chalk for cash so going to make gpp lineups with Ryan, Wilson and Ben.

No Brady?

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43 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

My super risky $1 gpp lineup

Ryan Coleman Ware Julio Brown Adams Written Crosby KC

Probably just playing $4 in cash games and $3 in gpp. I think Dak and Rogers will be the chalk for cash so going to make gpp lineups with Ryan, Wilson and Ben.

Here is one that I was staring at that also fades Zeke and Bell:

Ryan - Freeman/Blount - Dez/Adams/Cobb - Witten - K of choice - NE

Get the TDs (hopefully) from that Atl get a piece of the shootout in Dallas without stacking with a higher % Qb from the game, and get the NE Rb/Def stack. 

 

Saw that Blount missed a 2nd practice with his illness, so we will have to keep our eye on that.  If it doesn't look like he is a go, I would proably think about Lewis and upgrade to Kelce at TE (like that option in general as well). 

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I like it. When Boulnt plays hes good in GPP because he can get 4 TDs or none on any given Sunday.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

I like it. When Boulnt plays hes good in GPP because he can get 4 TDs or none on any given Sunday.

One of the podcasts I listen to was highlighting again the correlation for the Vegas line and Blount/NE.  I think it was something like he averages about 20pts if they are double digit faves, 15 if they are TD faves, and 6 if they are underdogs.  The risk is that Lewis has been getting more and more work, and now Blount is missing practice with whatever he has. 

Freeman also has stark home/road splits.  I think it was 1.4 TDs/game at home and only .3TD/g away - something on those lines.  Have heard it a couple times in a few weeks that Freeman is the one to play at home, and Coleman away. 

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Don't you have when you hear so many different stats that make you change your winning lineup into a loser?

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"Safest" possible cash lineup:

 

QB-Rodgers   

RB-Bell, Zeke

WR-Adams, Maclin, Richardson

TE-Witten

K-Gostkowski

D-Pats 

 

I just think Rodgers is safest QB. Big Ben on road; losing Earl Thomas hurts but still Seahawks D has a reputation for a reason; Wilson more of GPP play but he would be my 2nd choice; Houston pass D is pretty good and Blount could score 3; would just way rather play Rodgers than Dak or A. Smith.

RB wise I also just think it's safest to play Bell and Zeke. I worry about Coleman taking Freeman carries and Seattle run D being good; I think a lot of people will chase points with Rawls, and Seattle will have to go through the air; and Dion Lewis taking snaps/carries also makes Blount less safe for me...

For WR my only lock is Adams. IVC helped me fill in Maclin and Richardson--but I am absolutely not in love with them. I could definitely put Sanu in for Maclin.

TE--since I'm spending way up on RB I guess I have to settle for Witten, but I do think he will be a safety net for a shakier than you think postseason Dak. Not in love with any TEs.

K and D--have to go Pats in cash.  I like the K/Defense correlations so that's why I have Gost, but could change to Hauschka if someone wanted to convince me.

 

Curious to hear everyone's thoughts? Thanks guys

Edited by kdreezyy4

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4 hours ago, kdreezyy4 said:

"Safest" possible cash lineup:

 

QB-Rodgers   

RB-Bell, Zeke

WR-Adams, Maclin, Richardson

TE-Witten

K-Gostkowski

D-Pats 

 

I just think Rodgers is safest QB. Big Ben on road; losing Earl Thomas hurts but still Seahawks D has a reputation for a reason; Wilson more of GPP play but he would be my 2nd choice; Houston pass D is pretty good and Blount could score 3; would just way rather play Rodgers than Dak or A. Smith.

RB wise I also just think it's safest to play Bell and Zeke. I worry about Coleman taking Freeman carries and Seattle run D being good; I think a lot of people will chase points with Rawls, and Seattle will have to go through the air; and Dion Lewis taking snaps/carries also makes Blount less safe for me...

For WR my only lock is Adams. IVC helped me fill in Maclin and Richardson--but I am absolutely not in love with them. I could definitely put Sanu in for Maclin.

TE--since I'm spending way up on RB I guess I have to settle for Witten, but I do think he will be a safety net for a shakier than you think postseason Dak. Not in love with any TEs.

K and D--have to go Pats in cash.  I like the K/Defense correlations so that's why I have Gost, but could change to Hauschka if someone wanted to convince me.

 

Curious to hear everyone's thoughts? Thanks guys

It's a solid LU but not necessarily the safest

Ryan is right there with Rogers, he lit Seattle up for 335 and 3 TDs week 6 and that was in Seat with ET, see no reason to believe he won' have similar success this week at home and with the extra 500 you can move off PRich to TGabriel or E Rogers or you can move off Maclin to T Hill and Santos at K

I agree that Bell/Zeke are the safest plays for cash

TE is a crap shoot this week, my preference is CJF as I see Houst falling behind early and having to throw

K- Santos and Bowell are cheaper options

DEF- I agree that NE is safest with KC a close second.

Edited by Megla
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6 minutes ago, Megla said:

It's a solid LU but not necessarily the safest

Ryan is right there with Rogers, he lit Seattle up for 335 and 3 TDs week 11 and that was in Seat with ET, see no reason to believe he won' have similar success this week at home and with the extra 500 you can move off PRich to TGabriel or E Rogers or you can move off Maclin to T Hill and Santos at K

I agree that Bell/Zeke are the safest plays for cash

TE is a crap shoot this week, my preference is CJF as I see Houst falling behind early and having to throw

K- Santos and Bowell are cheaper options

DEF- I agree that NE is safest with KC a close second.

Appreciate it.

Yah I'm a Packers fan so trying to remove all bias but it is proving to be difficult with Rodgers.

I think Gabriel and E rogers are more GPP plays, but would love to move off Maclin if I have the chance.

I like CJF too but not sure how I feel about Ryan Griffin sharing targets/snaps. They will definitely be throwing the ball all game so that helps.

And would love to have a cheaper K but weather right now in KC looks like freezing and sleet, and that makes me uncomfortable in cash games. Plus Boswell has been shaky and Tomlin loves to go for 2.

 

What other punt receivers are you guys looking at for cash? Right now I'm at Kearse/Richardson/Michael Floyd/Terrance Williams but not sure which one I trust most for cash.

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