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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

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17 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I would have taken the Guice side in both of those personally.

Over Moore for me. I dont know about Gallup and Miller. One of those and Callaway for sure

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50 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Not a rookie draft but i was offered Guice for DJ Moore, which i rejected. Also offered Guice for both Miller and Gallup, which i also rejected. He had talked about maybe taking Miller or Gallup and Callaway but he decided he needed more. 

To add to this and these are all different leagues. In all these leagues my team is heavy favorite or at worst heavy top 2 contender so my original thought was to try and upgrade my #1 next year but in only one of these leagues in only one of these leagues did both teams have #1's next year.

I offered someone Michel and 4th for Guice and Mack. Got instantly rejected, like within a minute.  Made a new offer and said I shot high but let them know they can keep Mack so Michel for Guice straight. That offer stood for over 24 hours and I eventually pulled it, more on why in a bit.

Another league I offered Ronald Jones for Guice and a flip flop of 1st's next year for Guice. They said no.

Third league I offered up two deals, Michel in one and Jones in the other for Guice and a fairly minor second round pick upgrade next year, my second for theirs. Went over 24 hour, no response from an owner I frankly don't care much for and never responds to trade offers so I pulled the offers.

Key things to note:

*in all of those leagues I'm deep at RB and I'd label Michel or Jones as my RB5-RB6.  Those teams are also fairly deep in general so should 2-3 of my RB's go down it would not be cause for panic so long as my WR's and TE's were relatively healthy. So to me when making those offers my thought process was I'm losing depth for a what I view as a long term upgrade.

*If those teams were thin at RB or thin with overall depth not sure I'd have offered any of those deals.  Trying to answer @Faust question directly on where would I feel comfortable taking Guice requires context, how much do I need help right now being the main thing? If I need help now not so easy to take Guice high but on teams without a major need I'd honestly have him in no worse than top 4.

*I think I had a flaw, maybe several flaws, in my thought process on offering Guice for Jones and Michel straight up.  Flaw #1: Just because I don't need a RB does not mean other teams won't and if not now eventually  Flaw #2: Michel is getting dinged for injury and Jones for poor showing and both to some degree for lack of camp buzz. Their value in theory, barring a massive injury, likely can only increase so if I don't need to make a move today why not wait? Flaw #3: I made those offers after mulling over a question similar to the one Faust asked, where would I take Guice in a rookie dynasty draft. I was thinking on those teams, teams without immediate need, I'd take him 2 or 3 most likely. The flaw is this, I'm not limited to rookies when offering up Michel or Jones.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Faust said:

I would appreciate any feedback on rookie drafts that have taken place since the news broke that Guice will be out for the entire season. Where is he going now in rookie drafts? What pick would you feel comfortable using on him?

I'm up at 1.11 and have a choice of Guice or Ronald Jones.

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

To add to this and these are all different leagues. In all these leagues my team is heavy favorite or at worst heavy top 2 contender so my original thought was to try and upgrade my #1 next year but in only one of these leagues in only one of these leagues did both teams have #1's next year.

I offered someone Michel and 4th for Guice and Mack. Got instantly rejected, like within a minute.  Made a new offer and said I shot high but let them know they can keep Mack so Michel for Guice straight. That offer stood for over 24 hours and I eventually pulled it, more on why in a bit.

Another league I offered Ronald Jones for Guice and a flip flop of 1st's next year for Guice. They said no.

Third league I offered up two deals, Michel in one and Jones in the other for Guice and a fairly minor second round pick upgrade next year, my second for theirs. Went over 24 hour, no response from an owner I frankly don't care much for and never responds to trade offers so I pulled the offers.

Key things to note:

*in all of those leagues I'm deep at RB and I'd label Michel or Jones as my RB5-RB6.  Those teams are also fairly deep in general so should 2-3 of my RB's go down it would not be cause for panic so long as my WR's and TE's were relatively healthy. So to me when making those offers my thought process was I'm losing depth for a what I view as a long term upgrade.

*If those teams were thin at RB or thin with overall depth not sure I'd have offered any of those deals.  Trying to answer @Faust question directly on where would I feel comfortable taking Guice requires context, how much do I need help right now being the main thing? If I need help now not so easy to take Guice high but on teams without a major need I'd honestly have him in no worse than top 4.

*I think I had a flaw, maybe several flaws, in my thought process on offering Guice for Jones and Michel straight up.  Flaw #1: Just because I don't need a RB does not mean other teams won't and if not now eventually  Flaw #2: Michel is getting dinged for injury and Jones for poor showing and both to some degree for lack of camp buzz. Their value in theory, barring a massive injury, likely can only increase so if I don't need to make a move today why not wait? Flaw #3: I made those offers after mulling over a question similar to the one Faust asked, where would I take Guice in a rookie dynasty draft. I was thinking on those teams, teams without immediate need, I'd take him 2 or 3 most likely. The flaw is this, I'm not limited to rookies when offering up Michel or Jones.

 

 

 

I fell into this thought process too, although with a twist.  I'm trying to move him to bad teams for "older" guys but those teams don't seem to realize they are bad.  In one I offered Guice for Fitzgerald and McCoy and got rejected no counter.  Guy was 2-11 last year, didn't have his 1st rounder this year, and has zero chance of contending yet he's worried about needing a starter.  Another league I offered Guice for AJ Green - same result, and this is a league with contracts that expire and AJ Green only has two years left.  Guice for DT and Crowell - nope.  I'm about to start shopping for him now in leagues I don't own him at this rate.

I'm done trying to push him.  I'll wait until someone's 2-5 and then make sure I get a lot more out of him than I originally asked.

Edited by Hankmoody
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2 hours ago, TheGooRoo said:

I'm up at 1.11 and have a choice of Guice or Ronald Jones.

I'm at 1.11 too in a 15 keeper and I think that will also be my choice. I am in a quandary as to what to do. I may just punt and take Gesicki.

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5 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I would have taken the Guice side in both of those personally.

I had Moore as the #2 player after Barkley. Just my personal evaluation. Ended up trading dor Guice. Cost me Miller, Coutee, Akins and a future 2,3,4

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Its been 3 days since we found out Guice will miss the 2018 yet his FBGs rookie ranking hasn't changed.  I tend to believe this is because most of dynasty staff haven't tweeked their rankings yet.  Of the 3 who post comments, only one (Woods) has updated his notes to acknowledge the injury while the other 2 still comment on him being a major contributor this year.

Having said that, just about everyone in the dynasty community is aware of his injury.  I'm looking for opinions on his long-term value and the likelihood of his return to pre-injury skills. Other high 1st rd rookie RBs may not contribute much this year as well.  Chubb, Penny, Jones, Michel all have questions surrounding their impact for '18.  So if you're not counting on major production from your 1st round rookie RB, how far do you drop Guice?

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2 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

Having said that, just about everyone in the dynasty community is aware of his injury.  I'm looking for opinions on his long-term value and the likelihood of his return to pre-injury skills.

...

So if you're not counting on major production from your 1st round rookie RB, how far do you drop Guice?

I expect him to come back at 100%, but that may not be until at least November 2019, and more likely 2020. I do not believe that only a calendar year to come back to your prior self is a safe bet. 

As of today, I have dropped him down to about RB5 from RB2 simply because a couple of the other guys will be able to be counted on for 2018. In terms of future outlook, I think he’s now behind Chubb and Kerryon for sure. I need to see more from the other rookies to move them ahead of him, and I really don’t like any of the WRs from this class to develop into a true WR1 ranking. 

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9 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

Its been 3 days since we found out Guice will miss the 2018 yet his FBGs rookie ranking hasn't changed.  I tend to believe this is because most of dynasty staff haven't tweeked their rankings yet.  Of the 3 who post comments, only one (Woods) has updated his notes to acknowledge the injury while the other 2 still comment on him being a major contributor this year.

Having said that, just about everyone in the dynasty community is aware of his injury.  I'm looking for opinions on his long-term value and the likelihood of his return to pre-injury skills. Other high 1st rd rookie RBs may not contribute much this year as well.  Chubb, Penny, Jones, Michel all have questions surrounding their impact for '18.  So if you're not counting on major production from your 1st round rookie RB, how far do you drop Guice?

I see Guice as a minimally risky bet for 2019, but the good news is that he should be cleared for running before Washington finishes their season. this bodes well for him to condition this offseason and be ready to start the season without a delay that we would expect from someone who was hurt week 6 for example. 

I see him as 100% as 100% can be by the start of the regular season next year. if hes got any rust it'll be from not having played in a full football game for over 18 months. that's always risky. theres always the chance he has some bit of a regression as some do after an acl tear, but we have nothing to compare him to so we will never know

the silver lining in all of this is that hes only 21 years old. next year he will be the same age as the top rookie rbs in your rookie draft. had he stayed in school he was possibly the first rb taken next year. so it's not like hes about to be 23 like Chubb. he has many years ahead of him

Edited by Dr. Dan
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9 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I expect him to come back at 100%, but that may not be until at least November 2019, and more likely 2020. I do not believe that only a calendar year to come back to your prior self is a safe bet. 

As of today, I have dropped him down to about RB5 from RB2 simply because a couple of the other guys will be able to be counted on for 2018. In terms of future outlook, I think he’s now behind Chubb and Kerryon for sure. I need to see more from the other rookies to move them ahead of him, and I really don’t like any of the WRs from this class to develop into a true WR1 ranking. 

Dalvin Cook had the same injury, and is being drafted as RB9 this year.  And his injury came in week 4.  Guice will have a longer recovery time before next season starts.  I have not been following Cook this offseason, how's he looked?  Granted different position but Wentz tore his ACL and LCL in December and is hopeful to start week 1.

Now you think Guice is behind Chubb and Kerryon.  If Guice was your #2 before the injury, why have you devalued him long-term? 

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9 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I see Guice as a minimally risky bet for 2019, but the good news is that he should be cleared for running before Washington finishes their season. this bodes well for him to condition this offseason and be ready to start the season without a delay that we would expect from someone who was hurt week 6 for example. 

I see him as 100% as 100% can be by the start of the regular season next year. if hes got any rust it'll be from not having played in a full football game for over 18 months. that's always risky. theres always the chance he has some bit of a regression as some do after an acl tear, but we have nothing to compare him to so we will never know

the silver lining in all of this is that hes only 21 years old. next year he will be the same age as the top rookie rbs in your rookie draft. had he stayed in school he was possibly the first rb taken next year. so it's not like hes about to be 23 like Chubb. he has many years ahead of him

This is kinda how I'm looking at it.  Dynasty is for long-term and if Guice was your #2 before the injury, the only reason I can see to knock him down is if you don't think he'll return to 100%.  I get it, you get nothing from him this year.  But how much confidence do people have that Chubb can be a contributor this year?  I think Penny has a clearer path, but he has not been named the starter yet.  And if he is, what's his work load going to be like if Carson's also in the picture?  Looking ahead to '19, is KJohnson really going to be better than Guice?  I think there's a good argument to leave Guice as your 1.02 if that's where you had him originally.

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So in looking for more comparisons, Todd Gurley blew out his ACL in November of '14 and was selected 10th overall in 2015 less than 6 months later. 

ETA: in 2015 Gurley started 12 games and was second team All-Pro with over 1100 yards rushing and 10 TDs.

Edited by Amused to Death
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17 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

Its been 3 days since we found out Guice will miss the 2018 yet his FBGs rookie ranking hasn't changed.  I tend to believe this is because most of dynasty staff haven't tweeked their rankings yet.  Of the 3 who post comments, only one (Woods) has updated his notes to acknowledge the injury while the other 2 still comment on him being a major contributor this year.

Having said that, just about everyone in the dynasty community is aware of his injury.  I'm looking for opinions on his long-term value and the likelihood of his return to pre-injury skills. Other high 1st rd rookie RBs may not contribute much this year as well.  Chubb, Penny, Jones, Michel all have questions surrounding their impact for '18.  So if you're not counting on major production from your 1st round rookie RB, how far do you drop Guice?

I still take him 1.02 in rookie drafts.  There's no real concern with long-term outlook and I don't draft for this-year contributions.  The only difference is what veterans I'd take in trade for him now since I do make trades based on current season lineup needs.  Knowing I'm getting a 0 from him this year I would trade him for AJ Green, for example, where I would not have a week ago. 

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31 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I still take him 1.02 in rookie drafts.  There's no real concern with long-term outlook and I don't draft for this-year contributions.  The only difference is what veterans I'd take in trade for him now since I do make trades based on current season lineup needs.  Knowing I'm getting a 0 from him this year I would trade him for AJ Green, for example, where I would not have a week ago. 

Yes. If I'm drafting 1.2, then I'm not contending this year anyways most likely. So why not take the best long term talent on the board and then take my high pick next year (Love or Brown maybe?) 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

Yes. If I'm drafting 1.2, then I'm not contending this year anyways most likely. So why not take the best long term talent on the board and then take my high pick next year (Love or Brown maybe?) 

Even if you are contending, are you drafting a rookie to plug into your playoff contending team?  My guess is you're drafting for depth and the future.  I think dropping him in rankings is short sighted for dynasty purposes.  

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6 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

Dalvin Cook had the same injury, and is being drafted as RB9 this year.  And his injury came in week 4.  Guice will have a longer recovery time before next season starts.  I have not been following Cook this offseason, how's he looked?  Granted different position but Wentz tore his ACL and LCL in December and is hopeful to start week 1.

Now you think Guice is behind Chubb and Kerryon.  If Guice was your #2 before the injury, why have you devalued him long-term? 

It could really go either way.  Cook was a bit unique as he flashed bigtime prior to his injury., which Guice did not have a chance to.  Consider ARob as a counter-point, who is very young and missed all of last year with an ACL and saw his ADP drop by a round or so despite his situation improving (he'd likely have dropped even further if he stayed in Jax).

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Guice won't be RB9 next year because he didn't have the 4 game tear that Cook demonstrated for sure. But if he looks recovered in the preseason he will shoot right back up to where he was pre-injury.

I don't think ARob is a good comparison. ARob has dropped in large part because he had a god-awful follow-up season to his 1400/14 season. His ADP should have been even lower last year but his supporters were still clinging to hope that it was a one year blip which propped up his ADP. Now he's changed teams (which is rarely good for WR's) to a question mark offense with a question mark 2nd year guy under certain. For all Jacksonville's faults, at least you knew Bortles would feed 150 targets to a healthy ARob. Now you've even got a handful of people talking up Miller being the true #1 instead of the guy Chicago just paid a bunch of FA money to.

 

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32 minutes ago, Buckna said:

For all Jacksonville's faults, at least you knew Bortles would feed 150 targets to a healthy ARob. 

To be fair, probably half of those "targets" were not really catchable.

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In my rookie draft Guice went 1.2.  I offered Penny (1.4) and a 2nd and got turned down.

I expect even with the injury Guice will still be drafted top 4 or 5 in most drafts.  

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4 minutes ago, Arodin said:

In my rookie draft Guice went 1.2.  I offered Penny (1.4) and a 2nd and got turned down.

I expect even with the injury Guice will still be drafted top 4 or 5 in most drafts.  

Draft was after the injury?

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1 minute ago, Amused to Death said:

Draft was after the injury?

Draft was before.  The declined trade suggests the owner still values Guice highly (or just doesn’t like Penny).

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I’ve moved him down my boards.  One full lost season is a big deal in dynasty.  Especially if you’re team has the weapons to make a run this year.  Just ask John Ross owners!  He sucked wind on my bench all year last year.  Wasn’t fun.  

Plus, I think the average lifespan for a rb in the nfl is 3-4 years   He’s got a serious injury coming out of the gates   What will he look like next year in his first year as a pro, coming off that injury?  Might take him some time to get back to football shape and to trust that tendon   Remains to be seen how cook will look this year   And it’s starting to look like the vikes are going to manage his workload to keep him fresh and healthy for the season   Who knows if he remains the workhorse they envisioned him to be   

In the next draft, there’s also a chance that Washington drafts another solid rb   What then for guice owners?  The kid has not proven a damn thing to the skins yet BC he hasn’t played a down of real nfl football   At least with cook we all got to see what he can do when the lights come on for 4 games before he went down  

I like guice, but I think it’s now safe for a contending team to take Sony, rojo, Chubb, or even Royce or Kerryon before him now.  

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7 minutes ago, rickyg said:

I’ve moved him down my boards.  One full lost season is a big deal in dynasty.  Especially if you’re team has the weapons to make a run this year.  Just ask John Ross owners!  He sucked wind on my bench all year last year.  Wasn’t fun.  

Plus, I think the average lifespan for a rb in the nfl is 3-4 years   He’s got a serious injury coming out of the gates   What will he look like next year in his first year as a pro, coming off that injury?  Might take him some time to get back to football shape and to trust that tendon   Remains to be seen how cook will look this year   And it’s starting to look like the vikes are going to manage his workload to keep him fresh and healthy for the season   Who knows if he remains the workhorse they envisioned him to be   

In the next draft, there’s also a chance that Washington drafts another solid rb   What then for guice owners?  The kid has not proven a damn thing to the skins yet BC he hasn’t played a down of real nfl football   At least with cook we all got to see what he can do when the lights come on for 4 games before he went down  

I like guice, but I think it’s now safe for a contending team to take Sony, rojo, Chubb, or even Royce or Kerryon before him now.  

How far did you move him down?

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5 hours ago, Buckna said:

Guice won't be RB9 next year because he didn't have the 4 game tear that Cook demonstrated for sure. But if he looks recovered in the preseason he will shoot right back up to where he was pre-injury.

I don't think ARob is a good comparison. ARob has dropped in large part because he had a god-awful follow-up season to his 1400/14 season. His ADP should have been even lower last year but his supporters were still clinging to hope that it was a one year blip which propped up his ADP. Now he's changed teams (which is rarely good for WR's) to a question mark offense with a question mark 2nd year guy under certain. For all Jacksonville's faults, at least you knew Bortles would feed 150 targets to a healthy ARob. Now you've even got a handful of people talking up Miller being the true #1 instead of the guy Chicago just paid a bunch of FA money to.

 

I'm not suggesting Guice will be a top-10 RB next year, just a comparison of a player who suffered the same injury (with less time to recover) appears to be well enough to warrant that pre-season ranking.  Certainly Cook had the chance to flash last year, but the health is a good sign.

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i've got him 1.08 after all the other RB's.  I never understood why he was the clear 1.02 anyway.  NFL teams do tons of research on these guys, i doubt the draft day rumor was something that dropped him a ton.

Considering the injury i'd take Barkley, Penny, Michel, Jones, Freeman, Chubb, K.Johnson, and possibly DJ Moore and Sutton ahead of him.  Would probably take him after all the other RB's though (1.08)

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Just took Guice at 4.10 of a startup.  Barkley, Penny, Royce, and Kerryon were the other rooks off the board.

My other considerations were Ajayi, Collins, Fitz, Tate, or QB1.

My squad so far is Barkley, Kelce, Tyreek, and now Guice.

My reasoning was that if I really need a productive player to compete for a championship, it won't be hard to deal him.  There's a million mediocre WRs available, I have a stud RB and TE, and a good manager can plan around not having a 4th round pick.  Barkley and Guice is a beautiful dynasty backfield if I don't have to break it up.

I kept thinking there would be an option I liked better but kept coming back to Guice.

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On 8/14/2018 at 9:04 PM, Amused to Death said:

How far did you move him down?

I would take Barkley, Chubb, rojo, Michel, kJ, Freeman, penny over him at this pt.  

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50 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Does anyone have a sense yet whether Perrine or Kelly will be the main guy this year or some kind of committee?  

That's about all anyone has right now...

No facts. Just sense. Going to have to wait it out. Neither are good enough to win it and keep it. Leads me to belive it will be a "hot hand" approach where the hot hand is more of a not cold hand. Going off watching them last year I think Kelley is the better back. But maybe Perrine was having rookie jitters and is ready to step up. 

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I am at 1.07 in our rookie draft and was hoping for Kerryon Johnson but he was just taken so I've been doing more research on Nick Chubb. I remember seeing his knee injury at Georgia and he's sort of been out-of-mind since then. This is relevant to Guice because when Chubb came back from his injury at Georgia, he had a decent year but his numbers were significantly down and his burst wasn't the same. In 2017, he did regain some form and all indications are that he is going to be a solid back, maybe with some flashes of what could have been, but that he may never regain what made him truly special as a freshman.

Now I know that every player is different and every injury is different, but anyone expecting that Guice will come back in 2019 to be the same player he was in 2018 may be focusing on those success stories (like Adrian Peterson) and overlooking what I think is a more typical trajectory, that of at least two years to get back to full strength or maybe even a little bit below. With all that in mind, I'm taking Chubb even though I don't like his situation in Cleveland but he's already done the rehab and I don't want to lose potentially two years of production that might come with Guice.

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1 hour ago, pecorino said:

I am at 1.07 in our rookie draft and was hoping for Kerryon Johnson but he was just taken so I've been doing more research on Nick Chubb. I remember seeing his knee injury at Georgia and he's sort of been out-of-mind since then. This is relevant to Guice because when Chubb came back from his injury at Georgia, he had a decent year but his numbers were significantly down and his burst wasn't the same. In 2017, he did regain some form and all indications are that he is going to be a solid back, maybe with some flashes of what could have been, but that he may never regain what made him truly special as a freshman.

Now I know that every player is different and every injury is different, but anyone expecting that Guice will come back in 2019 to be the same player he was in 2018 may be focusing on those success stories (like Adrian Peterson) and overlooking what I think is a more typical trajectory, that of at least two years to get back to full strength or maybe even a little bit below. With all that in mind, I'm taking Chubb even though I don't like his situation in Cleveland but he's already done the rehab and I don't want to lose potentially two years of production that might come with Guice.

Chubb tore 3 ligaments with a dislocation and cartilage damage. Far worse than Guice's injury.

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35 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

Chubb tore 3 ligaments with a dislocation and cartilage damage. Far worse than Guice's injury.

Yeah, not even close. Chubb had a near Marcus Lattimore type injury. Guice was a simple acl tear.

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2 hours ago, pecorino said:

I am at 1.07 in our rookie draft and was hoping for Kerryon Johnson but he was just taken so I've been doing more research on Nick Chubb. I remember seeing his knee injury at Georgia and he's sort of been out-of-mind since then. This is relevant to Guice because when Chubb came back from his injury at Georgia, he had a decent year but his numbers were significantly down and his burst wasn't the same. In 2017, he did regain some form and all indications are that he is going to be a solid back, maybe with some flashes of what could have been, but that he may never regain what made him truly special as a freshman.

Now I know that every player is different and every injury is different, but anyone expecting that Guice will come back in 2019 to be the same player he was in 2018 may be focusing on those success stories (like Adrian Peterson) and overlooking what I think is a more typical trajectory, that of at least two years to get back to full strength or maybe even a little bit below. With all that in mind, I'm taking Chubb even though I don't like his situation in Cleveland but he's already done the rehab and I don't want to lose potentially two years of production that might come with Guice.

If I'm deciding between Chubb and Guice, it doesnt take me more than the time it takes to say both of their names to make up my choice. 

 

One reason we see a drop in performance is because these guys have these tears at week 4, 8, 10. not week 1 of the preseason. therefore they come back from injury at 8 months post op or so, which isn't enough time, and why there is typically a drop. 

 

consider this, Guice has 7 more weeks than Dalvin Cook had. 7 weeks in the rehab world is a very, very significant time period 

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All fair points. I also believe, though, that the delta between a healthy Chubb and Guice is not great (debatable of course) so losing a year could be enough to tip the scale to Chubb.

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1 hour ago, pecorino said:

All fair points. I also believe, though, that the delta between a healthy Chubb and Guice is not great (debatable of course) so losing a year could be enough to tip the scale to Chubb.

You're losing a year with Chubb too. And even in 2019 you're still looking at Duke stealing catches from Chubb. Guice has less of an obstacle there as it seemed the team was willing to use him and impressed with his ability in the passing game. I would disagree heavily with anyone who thinks Chubb is going to have a fantasy relevant season in 2018, barring injury to others. I could be wrong (and hope so as I own Chubb in another dynasty league with Guice), but I just don't see it happening. Which is why I say it wouldn't take me long to decide between the two; both are being drafted for 2019 and beyond, and I think Guice is going to be much better.

ETA: As you said, you don't see much of a difference between them, so you find anything in 2018 is better than nothing, and long term you see them the same. I don't believe that myself, but I would be stoked if true since I own stock in both 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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34 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

You're losing a year with Chubb too. And even in 2019 you're still looking at Duke stealing catches from Chubb. Guice has less of an obstacle there as it seemed the team was willing to use him and impressed with his ability in the passing game. I would disagree heavily with anyone who thinks Chubb is going to have a fantasy relevant season in 2018, barring injury to others. I could be wrong (and hope so as I own Chubb in another dynasty league with Guice), but I just don't see it happening. Which is why I say it wouldn't take me long to decide between the two; both are being drafted for 2019 and beyond, and I think Guice is going to be much better.

ETA: As you said, you don't see much of a difference between them, so you find anything in 2018 is better than nothing, and long term you see them the same. I don't believe that myself, but I would be stoked if true since I own stock in both 

Don't discount Chris Thompson.  Dude had 39 catches in 10 games last year, and could really gel with the new QB before Guice has a chance to.  Could be just as much an obstacle to Guice as Johnson is to Chubb.  Really the same with K Johnson in Detroit as well, with T Riddick. 

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15 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Does anyone have a sense yet whether Perrine or Kelly will be the main guy this year or some kind of committee?  

Alex Smith.

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10 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Don't discount Chris Thompson.  Dude had 39 catches in 10 games last year, and could really gel with the new QB before Guice has a chance to.  Could be just as much an obstacle to Guice as Johnson is to Chubb.  Really the same with K Johnson in Detroit as well, with T Riddick. 

Thompson will be turning 29 and in the last year of his contract in 2019. He is a factor limiting Guice's upside but much less of one than Duke Johnson who next year will only be 25 and will be in year 2 of his new 4 year contract. As good as Thompson looked last year, Duke was second only to Kamara in RB receiving prowess last year per PFF.

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26 minutes ago, Buckna said:
43 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Don't discount Chris Thompson.  Dude had 39 catches in 10 games last year, and could really gel with the new QB before Guice has a chance to.  Could be just as much an obstacle to Guice as Johnson is to Chubb.  Really the same with K Johnson in Detroit as well, with T Riddick. 

Thompson will be turning 29 and in the last year of his contract in 2019. He is a factor limiting Guice's upside but much less of one than Duke Johnson who next year will only be 25 and will be in year 2 of his new 4 year contract. As good as Thompson looked last year, Duke was second only to Kamara in RB receiving prowess last year per PFF.

Stole my thunder. 

More to the point about Riddick, he is 28 next year and in his last year of his contract as well. Not only that, but if Kerryon does well this year Detroit could very well move on from Riddick. He only counts just under 1 million if cut, but carries a 4.3 mil cap hit if kept. If Kerryon proves he has it, which i think he does, the team could move on from their congestion at RB and go with Kerryon. I'm not sure I see that happening, but 3 million in savings is 3 million in savings... 

 

Chris Thompson is always hurt it seems, older, and his contract situation is almost identical to Riddick, so Washington could move on from him, especially if he doesn't come back well. People forget the guy had a pretty nasty injury last year and hasn't played yet. It's very possible he has a bad season and never recovers back to his "old self"

All those things considered, I think Guice's future is much brighter for being "the guy" than Chubb's.

As someone who is overly pessimistic when it comes to guys returning from an ACL injury, I'm much more positive when a guy has 12 months than 7. If every athlete came back 12 months after an ACL tear I wouldn't have anything to talk about when it came to those injuries.

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Hey, I'm a skins fan so I hope that we finally do have a bell cow back for the next half decade or so - we haven't had that since Portis.  I just meant to say that all of these rookies (aside from Barkley) have some type of competition from somewhere.  No matter if it's this year or next year, or further down the line.  Guice has Thompson (under contract for at least one more year after this one, unless cut - and that deal is pretty team reasonable) - Chubb has Duke, KJ has Riddick, and so on.  Thompson might be the most electric player currently on the Redskins roster, as much as that pains me to say as a Skins fan. 

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Guice is 18 months younger than Chubb. A year from now when Guice is a feature back he'll be younger than Chubb is now as a committee back. Not much of a "lost year" when comparing these 2 players against each other. 

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21 minutes ago, Sebowski said:

Guice is 18 months younger than Chubb. A year from now when Guice is a feature back he'll be younger than Chubb is now as a committee back. Not much of a "lost year" when comparing these 2 players against each other. 

That's what I don't get, dropping him in ranking due to a 'lost year'.  Who are you drafting in his place that you're counting on for production *this* year?  Assuming you had Guice ranked #2, you're still taking a lesser talent who will still be a lesser talent a year from now.  And Chubb had a horrendous knee injury already himself - far worse than Guice's.

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On 8/10/2018 at 9:07 PM, az_prof said:

Tough news.  He is an interesting BUY now in dynasty for teams that are rebuilding for the future.  

or for winning teams that have a complete roster and dont need production this year.

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So I took Guice at the beginning of round 2 @ 2.02 in a 15yr dyno. Of note I took Freeman @ 1.05 around 2 weeks ago when the draft started. Guice was my clear cut #2 ov guy before the injury, so I'm really excited to pull him in the 2nd round of the entry draft. The ACL scares me but if it heals up I could have potentially 2 really good RB2s for the future if Freeman remains this explosive through the preseason. Either way I feel like I got pretty lucky this year for a change.

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On 8/18/2018 at 7:04 PM, grateful zed said:

or for winning teams that have a complete roster and dont need production this year.

Got him in the 11th round in my redraft. We are able to keep players in the same round the following year if they never reach the active roster. Prob could have waited longer but didn’t want to miss him. 

/obligatorypatselfonbackpost

Edited by Elevencents

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