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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

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Gruden was quoted a few weeks ago saying that Guice is a 3 down back and won't come off the field in 3rd downs. Take it for coachspeak, but there were a lot of similar comments after OTA's and in the pre-season.

Thompson is in the last year of his contract extension and turns 29 this year so I don't see him as a threat to steal catches for much longer. Peterson was never known as much of a pass-catcher either.

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

Gruden was quoted a few weeks ago saying that Guice is a 3 down back and won't come off the field in 3rd downs. Take it for coachspeak, but there were a lot of similar comments after OTA's and in the pre-season.

Thompson is in the last year of his contract extension and turns 29 this year so I don't see him as a threat to steal catches for much longer. Peterson was never known as much of a pass-catcher either.

He said he doesn't NEED to come off on 3rd down.  Big difference.

When Thompson is healthy he's one of the best 3rd down backs in the league.  Gruden loves him and he'll have a role for as long as his body holds up.

That said, they have confidence in Guice as a 3 down back which is great for future interests.

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5 hours ago, Buckna said:

Gruden was quoted a few weeks ago saying that Guice is a 3 down back and won't come off the field in 3rd downs. Take it for coachspeak, but there were a lot of similar comments after OTA's and in the pre-season.

Thompson is in the last year of his contract extension and turns 29 this year so I don't see him as a threat to steal catches for much longer. Peterson was never known as much of a pass-catcher either.

Wow had no idea Thompson was so old (in RB terms)

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5 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Coaches say a lot of things, some of which are accurate. Some of those accurate statements pan out in real games.

FWIW, I traded for Guice a few weeks ago, drafted him in wsl.  I like the guy's talent. I'm just trying to keep my own expectations in check.

Yep.

Just saying he may be capable of doing that as well according to the coaches.

For this year it is looking like he will start slow with Peterson starting early on. Thompson will likely get the most targets in the passing game.

If Guice is getting all of the 1st and 2nd down work I can see him having 20-30 receptions. If he doesn't start until mid way through the season then perhaps fewer than that.

If Thompson gets hurt again though then I think Guice could see more targets then.

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31 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yep.

Just saying he may be capable of doing that as well according to the coaches.

For this year it is looking like he will start slow with Peterson starting early on. Thompson will likely get the most targets in the passing game.

If Guice is getting all of the 1st and 2nd down work I can see him having 20-30 receptions. If he doesn't start until mid way through the season then perhaps fewer than that.

If Thompson gets hurt again though then I think Guice could see more targets then.

This is reasonable. I think Washington may take the approach the Vikings took once they realized Cook wasnt ready, but it was already too late. Guice will be a great buy low after a few weeks into the season 

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23 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

They aren’t going to run Guice into the ground coming off an ACL

This guy is definitely not a Redskins fan lol.

(I agree, but it certainly won't be because we made a smart, calculated decision not to)

 

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On 3/15/2019 at 9:34 AM, menobrown said:

I thought about Diggs but would Minnesota do that and leave themselves with Thielen and about nothing else?

 

Stefon Diggs' brother, Trevon Diggs, posted a cryptic Instagram photo of the Vikings wideout in a Redskins uniform.

 

Bogus, non-story on Diggs apparently.

Edited by menobrown

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On 3/15/2019 at 9:00 PM, skinfanjon said:

This guy is definitely not a Redskins fan lol.

(I agree, but it certainly won't be because we made a smart, calculated decision not to)

 

Exactly. Put yourself in the position of the team. it’s smart not to overload Guice in 2019. 

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2 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Exactly. Put yourself in the position of the team. it’s smart not to overload Guice in 2019. 

Some people tend to only think in terms of Madden

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Redskins coach Jay Gruden expects Derrius Guice (knee) to be a full-go for training camp.

Guice suffered several setbacks after tearing his ACL last preseason, raising concerns about his availability for the start of 2019. All recent news has been positive, however, and Gruden even expects him to get in some work during OTAs. Washington did bring back Adrian Peterson, but Guice should get every shot to earn the lead job if he is healthy.

SOURCE: Tarik El-Bashir on Twitter

Mar 26, 2019, 10:01 AM

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9 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

VIDEO GUICE AGILITY

Travis May‏ @FF_TravisM 23h23 hours ago 

Travis May Retweeted  2️⃣ 9️⃣

Not even 8 months removed from ACL tear and Guice is out hear doing legit agility work. Been a joy to see this drive and determination all the way.

:drive:

CHOOO MOTHER TRUCKIN' CHOOOO :drive::pickle::thumbup::clap:

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I think come August all value will be lost here in redraft. He will get drafted high and probably should.  Peterson will be lucky to get 5-7 carries a game if guice is full go.

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Returning NFL players that could have a big impact in 2019 BY BEN COOPER • APR 5, 2019

Quote

 

The most successful NFL teams know when to let players walk and sign big contracts elsewhere, but teams also know when they have a valuable piece that’s worth bringing back. Re-signings are often overlooked in free agency as some of the league’s biggest playmakers swap teams, and players who lost their previous campaign to injury are often forgotten about in the grand scheme of things. Here are the best returning players — whether it be from injury or due to a re-signing — who could have a significant impact in 2019. 

RB Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins

2018 grade: N/A

Perhaps the biggest surprise on the list is Guice, who has yet to officially record a carry as an NFL running back, but his college production speaks for itself, where he never earned a season grade below 85.0 and frequently ranked among the best in yards after contact and first down runs. Those kinds of attributes should translate well to the pro game, and Guice will get some opportunities alongside Adrian Peterson to prove it.

 

 

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Speaking Saturday, Redskins coach Jay Gruden said Derrius Guice (knee) could be ready before training camp.

Gruden's words come the same day ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Guice is "coming along a little slower" than expected. We will believe the reporter over the coach, but we suppose it is encouraging Gruden did not have to outright admit to Schefter's report. Perhaps he will be ready after all. We will consider him firmly questionable.

SOURCE: John Keim on Twitter

Apr 27, 2019, 4:59 PM

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3 hours ago, Faust said:

 

 

Schefter's report made no sense. Guice's injury came before Love's. So to say they drafted Love in case Guice isn't ready ? Guice will be ready well before Love. Love's injury was a big enough concern that many teams had him completely off their draft boards.

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I honestly think they feel Love was a great value and I see AP out of there after this year.  They actually proactively drafted a player with the future in mind.

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Chris Thompson turns 29 this year and is in the last year of his contract as well. Love is the guy they’re hoping will replace Thompson’s playmaking COP ability a year from now IMO.

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I love all the negative takes on Guice. I've been trying to buy him in the few dynasty leagues I don't already own him with zero success. Maybe his owners will release their hold on him now 

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Loved him last year. Want to trade for him but the owner has a death grip. If his price is fair in redraft, I'd love to scoop up WRs early and take him as a RB2 later on.

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7 hours ago, Buckna said:

Chris Thompson turns 29 this year and is in the last year of his contract as well. Love is the guy they’re hoping will replace Thompson’s playmaking COP ability a year from now IMO.

I thought Love's hands were suspect?

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3 hours ago, Raptors409 said:

Loved him last year. Want to trade for him but the owner has a death grip. If his price is fair in redraft, I'd love to scoop up WRs early and take him as a RB2 later on.

Expanding on this thought. I had him in the Nick Chubb territory as far as talent goes. Guice was never a burner from my estimation. I think he gives us 10 touchdowns this year, barring injury. Washington is going to give him every chance to be "the guy". We will find out if he has the physical makeup to be "the guy". Risk reward.

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11 second-year NFL players poised for a breakout season

Quote

 

11 second-year NFL players poised for a breakout season

2. Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins

Guice had his rookie season end before it began due to a torn ACL, but he is expected to return in time for training camp, which will serve as a tremendous boost for the Redskins. And although the team re-signed Adrian Peterson, Guice is clearly their running back of the future and a player they are relying upon. In 2019, so long as Guice doesn’t suffer a setback, he’ll likely begin the season splitting carries with AP before taking over as the team’s No. 1 down the stretch.

 

 

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Guice seems priced about right...I agree with the sentiment that he's more of a second half back in 2019...kind of like how Henry came on for the Titans.  Just know that it's a timeshare for the first half.

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45 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Guice seems priced about right...I agree with the sentiment that he's more of a second half back in 2019...kind of like how Henry came on for the Titans.  Just know that it's a timeshare for the first half.

That's the rub. I like him enough, but I expect to see more Byrce Love in the second half (seeing if he can replace Thompson), making this a three headed monster potentially.  

Potentially, this is new Orleans light. But with two Kamaras.

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8 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

That's the rub. I like him enough, but I expect to see more Byrce Love in the second half (seeing if he can replace Thompson), making this a three headed monster potentially.  

Potentially, this is new Orleans light. But with two Kamaras.

I wouldn't expect Love to eat into Guice's opportunities.  I see AP as the bigger threat in 2019.  Love has a long road back.

Edited by TripItUp

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8 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I wouldn't expect Love to eat into Guice's opportunities.  I see AP as the bigger threat in 2019.  Love has a long road back.

We'll see. 

Early on I agree. But Love is too talented to sit out long. 

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There's a good chance we red-shirt Love on IR.  AP and Thompson for however long he stays healthy are the bigger concerns.  Not to mention the first half of the schedule is absolutely brutal.

Guice should become a better fantasy option as the season goes along.  He's a hold in dynasty for me.  Mid season target in redraft if he's too expensive on draft day.

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5 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

There's a good chance we red-shirt Love on IR.  AP and Thompson for however long he stays healthy are the bigger concerns.  Not to mention the first half of the schedule is absolutely brutal.

exactly

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The prevailing thought is we drafted Love to be Guice's backup next year.  Thompson is a 29 year old free agent.  AP is what, 34?  Fighting father time.

I think it was a wasted pick personally.

 

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:28 PM, skinfanjon said:

The prevailing thought is we drafted Love to be Guice's backup next year.  Thompson is a 29 year old free agent.  AP is what, 34?  Fighting father time.

I think it was a wasted pick personally.

If they'd spent a 2nd-rounder I'd agree, but a mid-4th? 90% of 4th-rounders will be out of the league before their rookie deals are up anyway ... you might as well take the chance that a guy with 1st-round talent can beat the injury odds. It worked out pretty well for the Niners with Frank Gore.

Personally it's exactly the kind of strategy more teams should be employing with their mid-rounders IMO.

In redraft, I agree that I wouldn't bother with him unless your league has multiple dedicated IR spots. The odds are good he'll start the season on PUP and most owners will be too impatient to hold him on the bench for a half-season or more.

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43 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

If they'd spent a 2nd-rounder I'd agree, but a mid-4th? 90% of 4th-rounders will be out of the league before their rookie deals are up anyway ... you might as well take the chance that a guy with 1st-round talent can beat the injury odds. It worked out pretty well for the Niners with Frank Gore.

Personally it's exactly the kind of strategy more teams should be employing with their mid-rounders IMO.

In redraft, I agree that I wouldn't bother with him unless your league has multiple dedicated IR spots. The odds are good he'll start the season on PUP and most owners will be too impatient to hold him on the bench for a half-season or more.

Wasted pick has more to do with my opinion of the player than strategy of spending mid rounders on backups.  Would have much rather seen a lineman or corner there instead of that particular player.

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well Love was seen as one of the best backs in the college football before the injury...so there is value there assuming he recovers...

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20 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

well Love was seen as one of the best backs in the college football before the injury...so there is value there assuming he recovers...

Never liked him.  Straight line speed guy that seems to be a minus in the passing game.  A lot like Ronald Jones imo.  The injury and unavailability only make it worse.

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31 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

well Love was seen as one of the best backs in the college football 

...by the dynasty community. A month ago Harmon and Butler were seen as some of the best WRs in college football by the dynasty community.

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2 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

well Love was seen as one of the best backs in the college football before the injury...so there is value there assuming he recovers...

Don't like Love at all. I don't see him as a threat to Guice one bit. Maybe as a COP type guy but all he has is straight line speed. That's it. And it was exposed in 2018

 

Even if he didn't tear his ACL, I'm not sure he goes much higher than he did in the draft. Maybe round 3

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Oh I wouldn't draft him in the first 2 rounds of a rookie draft for sure, but just saying I can see how the Redskins might have thought they were getting a good back (pre-injury) to fill in for Thompson/AP after they are gone in 2020. 

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7 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

If they'd spent a 2nd-rounder I'd agree, but a mid-4th? 90% of 4th-rounders will be out of the league before their rookie deals are up anyway ... you might as well take the chance that a guy with 1st-round talent can beat the injury odds. It worked out pretty well for the Niners with Frank Gore. 

Personally it's exactly the kind of strategy more teams should be employing with their mid-rounders IMO.

In redraft, I agree that I wouldn't bother with him unless your league has multiple dedicated IR spots. The odds are good he'll start the season on PUP and most owners will be too impatient to hold him on the bench for a half-season or more.

Source please.

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Source please.

I can say this for the Steelers... 4th round players are "misses" at a very high rate for the 'Burgh.  In the last 12 years and 12 players drafted in 4th, only Martavis Bryant was any good what-so-ever.  8.3%.

Edited by BigSteelThrill

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3 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Oh I wouldn't draft him in the first 2 rounds of a rookie draft for sure, but just saying I can see how the Redskins might have thought they were getting a good back (pre-injury) to fill in for Thompson/AP after they are gone in 2020. 

Yes, every team needs backup RBs

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1 hour ago, BigSteelThrill said:

I can say this for the Steelers... 4th round players are "misses" at a very high rate for the 'Burgh.  In the last 12 years and 12 players drafted in 4th, only Martavis Bryant was any good what-so-ever.  8.3%.

Seemed super low to me too, but I don't know aot of these guys. Someone with more time/knowledge help us out here. 

4th round history

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16 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Source please.

90% "out of the league" is a bit high but usually you're not missing out on much.  

2015: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/draft.htm

It would be generous to say there are 7 relevant players taken in the 4th. A few good players.

 

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8 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

90% "out of the league" is a bit high but usually you're not missing out on much.  

2015: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/draft.htm

It would be generous to say there are 7 relevant players taken in the 4th. A few good players.

Mike Davis and Buck Allen are good examples of the most realistic upside one should expect from a 4th rounder: part time contributor with some degree of fantasy relevance if enough injuries occur. 

That being said, if a guy from a small school goes in the 4th, I perk up a bit more, but that does not describe Bryce Love. 

I went through a few years looking at 4th round to 7th round... only a few names stood out:

2016: out of 16 RBs - Jordan Howard (good rookie year, two meh years, all but forgotten by his 4th year), Alex Collins (half a good year)
2015: out of 10 RBs - Jay Ajayi (one good year)
2014: out of 12 RBs - Devonta Freeman (first real gem yet), James White (one trick RBBC pony in the perfect system)
2013: out of 19 RBs - Chris Thompson (part time RBBC guy), Latavius Murray (replacement level/backup talent), Rex Burkhead (RBBC guy, zero fantasy notable seasons), Spencer Ware (replacement level/backup talent), Theo Riddick (part time RBBC guy)
2012: out of 14 RBs - Lamar Miller (quite a few RB2 seasons on a ppg basis), Robert Turbin (just kidding!), Alfred Morris (same skill set and trajectory as Jordan Howard)

So out of this pool of 71 players, the only two guys that might challenge Guice for meaningful playing time would be Freeman (4.03) and Miller (4.02). The other guys that were mildly fantasy relevant either flamed out quickly or were RBBC receiving specialists - something Love is not, at least not right now.

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21 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

  Straight line speed guy that seems to be a minus in the passing game.  A lot like Ronald Jones imo.  The injury and unavailability only make it worse.

About how I see him.

I did draft him yesterday at pick 4.8 in FFPC because I have Guice and think if he can grow in the passing game the idea behind drafting him is for him to take over COP/third down duties from Thompson in 2020. Seemed like a cheap enough cost to me to potentially own the entire backfield heading into 2020.  I figure at least first 6 weeks if not whole season he should only be taking up an IR spot, not a roster spot. But even owning Guice I passed on him at 3.10 and 3.11 meanwhile I'm in other drafts were non-Guice owners are drafting him as soon as late second and usually in the third round, seems a bit high to me.

One drawback I had in drafting him is just wondering if he will ever be active or have an opportunity to show me he is worth keeping when cuts are due next off-season. Hard to know but since James Andrews did his ACL surgery I figure Skins have reason to think he is recovering well enough and tore his ACL on December 1 so he'll have a year out for at least a few weeks.

 

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On 5/15/2019 at 10:00 AM, ffmail4me said:

well Love was seen as one of the best backs in the college football before the injury...so there is value there assuming he recovers...

A lot of great college players don't transition well to the NFL. I love (no pun intended) that there are all these Love truthers drafting this guy in the late 2nd and early 3rd. It allows more of my guys to fall to me in the mid-late round 😃

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I feel like Guice is now being under valued. Some people jumping ship. Chris Harris ranked him #41 for 2019. 

https://www.harrisfootball.com/rbranks-draft

I love Harris and what he does and I think this is more his way of punting the WAS RB situation. But still #41? Maybe I am taking a more long term perspective but I think he’s a good bit low in dynasty.

Edited by Gandalf
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5 hours ago, Gandalf said:

I feel like Guice is now being under valued. Some people jumping ship. Chris Harris ranked him #41 for 2019. 

https://www.harrisfootball.com/rbranks-draft

I love Harris and what he does and I think this is more his way of punting the WAS RB situation. But still #41? Maybe I am taking a more long term perspective but I think he’s a good bit low in dynasty.

I agree Harris has him too low even for redraft. (I hope that's a redraft ranking.) But his real life value is definitely higher.

 

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5 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

I agree Harris has him too low even for redraft. (I hope that's a redraft ranking.) But his real life value is definitely higher.

 

I think this is just his way of saying he wants no part of the Washington running game in 2019. But if we look out a year from now, Guice might be poised to be approaching RB1 territory and he can be had for less than that. 12-18 months from now I think his value is much higher so buy now.

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