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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

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4 hours ago, Gandalf said:

I think this is just his way of saying he wants no part of the Washington running game in 2019. But if we look out a year from now, Guice might be poised to be approaching RB1 territory and he can be had for less than that. 12-18 months from now I think his value is much higher so buy now.

The owners of Guice spent high draft capital on him last year and don’t want to move him on the cheap in my situations.  Not even sure what to offer at this point. 

I’m hoping he starts the season off slow, and then is the time to go get him. 

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Pretty sure everyone knows he'll start slow, probably as AP backup, for the first 5 games or so. However, around week 6/7, look out. 

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1 hour ago, Run It Up said:

Just acquired him for the 1.12, 2.10 and 2020 2nd.

That's a steal. Makes my trade back in March of 1.03 (Harry) look like a bad overpay 

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1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

That's a steal. Makes my trade back in March of 1.03 (Harry) look like a bad overpay 

Where would Guice go in this draft, 1.02 maybe?

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4 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Where would Guice go in this draft, 1.02 maybe?

Possibly. 

I'm not regretting my trade, just saying this one shows Guice can be had much cheaper. 

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3 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Where would Guice go in this draft, 1.02 maybe?

I would take him 1.01 and I wouldn’t have to think about it.  By far the best back if he was in this draft

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3 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Where would Guice go in this draft, 1.02 maybe?

Had this discussion last week in the trade thread but I think in different drafts he'd range from 1-5 but his ADP would be 1.2. I traded him last week along with a projected late 2020#2 for 1.2/2.2. FWIW I'd have held him for just the 1.2, he would be my #2 player.

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11 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Where would Guice go in this draft, 1.02 maybe?

I'd give 1.1 for Guice post acl

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

They are predicting 1100 yards total and 6-8 tds. That is about what I expect as well and don’t think it is a bad thing. Starts slow, finishes strong.

hard to believe those stats dont put him into the top 24

ETA: that very well may not be enough... just glancing at those numbers I feel like I'd be pretty happy with that from my rb2. guess I'm a bit off on what it takes to be top 24

Edited by Dr. Dan

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

hard to believe those stats dont put him into the top 24

ETA: that very well may not be enough... just glancing at those numbers I feel like I'd be pretty happy with that from my rb2. guess I'm a bit off on what it takes to be top 24

Agreed. I just think it may be a tale of two halves for him. Similar to Chubb last year.

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Redskins coach Jay Gruden expects Derrius Guice (knee) to be ready for training camp.

"Derrius is coming along very well," Gruden said Monday. "We’re just trying to make sure that leg — his quad and everything — is full strength before we let him go." ESPN's Adam Schefter reported last month that Guice was coming along "a little slower" than expected, but Gruden has been working overtime since to prove that's not true. Only time will tell. Guice went down early last August.

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com

May 20, 2019, 2:29 PM ET

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Faust said:

Redskins coach Jay Gruden expects Derrius Guice (knee) to be ready for training camp.

"Derrius is coming along very well," Gruden said Monday. "We’re just trying to make sure that leg — his quad and everything — is full strength before we let him go." ESPN's Adam Schefter reported last month that Guice was coming along "a little slower" than expected, but Gruden has been working overtime since to prove that's not true. Only time will tell. Guice went down early last August.

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com

May 20, 2019, 2:29 PM ET

 

I'm reading something here I dont particularly like

 

Most coaches dont mention anything specific about a particular injury/recovery. it's always "we just want his knee to be stronger." to specifically call out the quads, to me, means this has been an issue (expected for me, but its early yet).

The biggest issue with his infection and follow up surgeries is the delay in strengthening the quadriceps. The fact that Gruden called this out specifically means that it is or has been an issue for Guice that the medical staff has mentioned to him. Most coaches are grossly uninformed when it comes to anatomy. Since this is an issue already for someone with an ACL tear, I imagine it's worse for a guy who had an infection that delayed things for a month or two. 

He still has plenty of time to get it stronger, but I wouldnt be surprised to see him off to a very slow start, maybe even PUP if his quad isnt ready

Edited by Dr. Dan
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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

He still has plenty of time to get it stronger, but I wouldnt be surprised to see him off to a very slow start, maybe even PUP if his quad isnt ready

Significant risk for compensation injury?

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Significant risk for compensation injury?

yes absolutely, if not adequately strong

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What are recent thoughts on Guice now that we’re only a few months out? Projections don’t look too promising for him. And ADP is going on with his bad self. I was super stoked to land Guice last year so I could keep him this year but I’m having second thoughts. It’s either Guice in the 8th or Kupp in the 10th and I am starting to lean Kupp now. Ugh. 

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2 hours ago, Elevencents said:

What are recent thoughts on Guice now that we’re only a few months out? Projections don’t look too promising for him. And ADP is going on with his bad self. I was super stoked to land Guice last year so I could keep him this year but I’m having second thoughts. It’s either Guice in the 8th or Kupp in the 10th and I am starting to lean Kupp now. Ugh. 

Average Draft Position is doing what now? 

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Current ADP is RB29 / #65 overall (mid 6th round) for redraft, but I think that may be too high.  Peterson showed he can still handle a big load, racking up 251 carries (good enough for 5th among all RB's).  AP is a much better value, can be had 5 rounds later, and is the likely starter when the season kicks off (barring a miracle recovery by Derrius).  The Skins are projected to be one of the worst teams this year, and will be transitioning from a journeyman QB to a rookie during the season.  Their top 2 WR's are probably the weakest duo in the NFL, and their TE's are injured/old.  If you want to know how truly awful they will be this year, just do a mock draft and see how many players even get drafted.

Guice is still rehabbing, and the Skins have no reason to rush him.  At this point, I think he would hold more value if he were a healthy RB suspended for half the season.

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23 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Current ADP is RB29 / #65 overall (mid 6th round) for redraft, but I think that may be too high.  Peterson showed he can still handle a big load, racking up 251 carries (good enough for 5th among all RB's).  AP is a much better value, can be had 5 rounds later, and is the likely starter when the season kicks off (barring a miracle recovery by Derrius).  The Skins are projected to be one of the worst teams this year, and will be transitioning from a journeyman QB to a rookie during the season.  Their top 2 WR's are probably the weakest duo in the NFL, and their TE's are injured/old.  If you want to know how truly awful they will be this year, just do a mock draft and see how many players even get drafted.

Guice is still rehabbing, and the Skins have no reason to rush him.  At this point, I think he would hold more value if he were a healthy RB suspended for half the season.

They have the potential to be a top 5 defense. That can have a huge affect on the offense. You are right that their cupboard is bare as for receiving options. Someone needs to step up there. Keenum has had RBs have success with him in this league so I don't think it's fair to knock him in this thread. If the rookie beats him out, he beats him out. It should be a fair competition. 

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3 hours ago, Sebowski said:

They have the potential to be a top 5 defense. That can have a huge affect on the offense. You are right that their cupboard is bare as for receiving options. Someone needs to step up there. Keenum has had RBs have success with him in this league so I don't think it's fair to knock him in this thread. If the rookie beats him out, he beats him out. It should be a fair competition. 

I didn't knock Keenum - I simply said he was a journeyman likely to lose his starting job to Haskins.  4 teams in 4 yrs is the definition of a journeyman.  But now that you mention it, he does suck.  :D

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On 6/22/2019 at 6:26 AM, TheWinz said:

Current ADP is RB29 / #65 overall (mid 6th round) for redraft, but I think that may be too high.  Peterson showed he can still handle a big load, racking up 251 carries (good enough for 5th among all RB's).  AP is a much better value, can be had 5 rounds later, and is the likely starter when the season kicks off (barring a miracle recovery by Derrius).  

I agree that the Redskins offense is looking shaky and that the presence of AP negatively affects Guice’s 2019 outlook, but what makes you think Guice needs a “miracle recovery?” He’s been posting videos of himself doing drills and sprinting all offseason, some of them as far back as January.

To me Guice fits the profile of a dynasty player you target. His stock has been in steady decline for over a year now and exactly zero of the factors behind that relate to his talent or ability, which seem to be fading from people’s memory. I can’t say he’s a clear value in redraft at current ADP but I think he’s at least a consideration, particularly with roster constructions where you draft 2 or 3 safe RBs ahead of him. When I’m past the sure thing portion of drafts, I much prefer to make talent over situation gambles than vice versa. Also when I’m playing in a fantasy format that features playoff games I like players with much stronger 2nd half of the season projections and Guice checks that box also

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11 minutes ago, electric Ape said:

I agree that the Redskins offense is looking shaky and that the presence of AP negatively affects Guice’s 2019 outlook, but what makes you think Guice needs a “miracle recovery?” He’s been posting videos of himself doing drills and sprinting all offseason, some of them as far back as January.

To me Guice fits the profile of a dynasty player you target. His stock has been in steady decline for over a year now and exactly zero of the factors behind that relate to his talent or ability, which seem to be fading from people’s memory. I can’t say he’s a clear value in redraft at current ADP but I think he’s at least a consideration, particularly with roster constructions where you draft 2 or 3 safe RBs ahead of him. When I’m past the sure thing portion of drafts, I much prefer to make talent over situation gambles than vice versa. Also when I’m playing in a fantasy format that features playoff games I like players with much stronger 2nd half of the season projections and Guice checks that box also

I am not sure his stock has been in decline.  He was drafted in recent startup in 4th round (rookies included).  He was drafted only after Jacobs as far as rookies go.  

He was drafted only behind Barkley last year before his injury.  The injury occurred and he was drafted mid to late first last year in rookie drafts last year.  I am not sure his value declined.  I think it may have stayed the same or increased with all the hype about him this year.

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1 hour ago, electric Ape said:

I agree that the Redskins offense is looking shaky and that the presence of AP negatively affects Guice’s 2019 outlook, but what makes you think Guice needs a “miracle recovery?” He’s been posting videos of himself doing drills and sprinting all offseason, some of them as far back as January.

To me Guice fits the profile of a dynasty player you target. His stock has been in steady decline for over a year now and exactly zero of the factors behind that relate to his talent or ability, which seem to be fading from people’s memory. I can’t say he’s a clear value in redraft at current ADP but I think he’s at least a consideration, particularly with roster constructions where you draft 2 or 3 safe RBs ahead of him. When I’m past the sure thing portion of drafts, I much prefer to make talent over situation gambles than vice versa. Also when I’m playing in a fantasy format that features playoff games I like players with much stronger 2nd half of the season projections and Guice checks that box also

I was referring only to his redraft value, not dynasty.  Prior to his injury, he was projected to trail only Saquon as a rookie.  At QB, Alex Smith came over after a 4000/26 season in KC (where he led the league in QB rating).  Jordan Reed was healthy and primed for a rebound, and Jamison Crowder was supposed to be a "sneaky" pick at WR.  Things couldn't have looked much better for WAS or Guice.

Fast forward to 2019.  Guice had to have additional procedures after his ACL surgery due to infection.  Their "best" WR left for NYJ, Reed had a relative bust season and is a yr older, and the fill-in QB is only a placeholder for a rookie.  At RB, AP will try to repeat his 2018 comeback year, but we all know he is just keeping Guice's seat warm until he is ready for action.  Sure, Guice will be the man from the start if all goes well, but the outlook for 2019 Guice isn't quite as rosy as 2018 Guice's was.  

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Not his son according to Reddit, but he's someone's son.  Prayers are with him and the family.

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Not his son according to Reddit, but he's someone's son.  Prayers are with him and the family.

Yeah, according to hearsay it was his cousin I guess? Still not sure. Possibly a gunshot wound. Sad day. 

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such awful news.  according to guice’s twittee feed, his cousin died today of gunshot wound.  incredibly sad.

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redskins have the highest paid offense in football so they must be good, right?

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31 minutes ago, Chemical X said:

redskins have the highest paid offense in football so they must be good, right?

This got me thinking... who would gain more yards rushing - me behind the 5 best linemen of all time, or the best RB of all time behind 5 of me?  That's assuming I don't die on first contact...

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4 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

This got me thinking... who would gain more yards rushing - me behind the 5 best linemen of all time, or the best RB of all time behind 5 of me?  That's assuming I don't die on first contact...

My money is on RB Winz.

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59 minutes ago, Chemical X said:

redskins have the highest paid offense in football so they must be good, right?

Well, $20m or so of it is Alex Smith, who will likely never play again. 

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2 hours ago, Chemical X said:

redskins have the highest paid offense in football so they must be good, right?

What is this post supposed to accomplish? 

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56 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

What is this post supposed to accomplish? 

To prove he received his jack wagon platinum member card I guess. :shrug:

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

This got me thinking... who would gain more yards rushing - me behind the 5 best linemen of all time, or the best RB of all time behind 5 of me?  That's assuming I don't die on first contact...

We've already seen your second case - and Barry Sanders did pretty well with it.

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17 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

To prove he received his jack wagon platinum member card I guess. :shrug:

reported

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I don't know, it seems like it's a case of being worked back slowly, becomes a 1b to ADPs 1a around week 5 at the same time a rookie QB takes over and teams dump 8 man fronts on this offense. It's Jay Gruden, you can't trust him.ADP got his #'s last season strictly becuase there was no other RB on the roster who was able to walk . Best case scenario is that ADP and Guice split duties.Is he even in the top 32 RBs to select in the draft? I'm not sure we need 22 pages on a guy who is closer to being JAG than he is to being a starting top 25 RB. I'd rather have Gio Bernard or guys like him, than Guice. 

I don't like the Redskins offenses in the Gruden years in terms of dependable players and production outside of when Reed was healthy. the running game has been meh at best.

 

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13 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

I don't know, it seems like it's a case of being worked back slowly, becomes a 1b to ADPs 1a around week 5 at the same time a rookie QB takes over and teams dump 8 man fronts on this offense. It's Jay Gruden, you can't trust him.ADP got his #'s last season strictly becuase there was no other RB on the roster who was able to walk . Best case scenario is that ADP and Guice split duties.Is he even in the top 32 RBs to select in the draft? I'm not sure we need 22 pages on a guy who is closer to being JAG than he is to being a starting top 25 RB. I'd rather have Gio Bernard or guys like him, than Guice. 

I don't like the Redskins offenses in the Gruden years in terms of dependable players and production outside of when Reed was healthy. the running game has been meh at best.

 

imo it seems you've painted a worst case scenario, not best. 

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8 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

I don't know, it seems like it's a case of being worked back slowly, becomes a 1b to ADPs 1a around week 5 at the same time a rookie QB takes over and teams dump 8 man fronts on this offense. It's Jay Gruden, you can't trust him.ADP got his #'s last season strictly becuase there was no other RB on the roster who was able to walk . Best case scenario is that ADP and Guice split duties.Is he even in the top 32 RBs to select in the draft? I'm not sure we need 22 pages on a guy who is closer to being JAG than he is to being a starting top 25 RB. I'd rather have Gio Bernard or guys like him, than Guice. 

I don't like the Redskins offenses in the Gruden years in terms of dependable players and production outside of when Reed was healthy. the running game has been meh at best.

 

It's AP or AD. ADP has its own meaning. 

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I still dont know how this name is pronounced. Like juice or gice or something different? Darrius is easy though.

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Injury and situation are concerns, especially in redraft but if his ADP holds (a big if), I think those things are built into the price already. Who in his current redraft tier has more upside?

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2 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

I still dont know how this name is pronounced. Like juice or gice or something different? Darrius is easy though.

Like dice, but with a G. 

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51 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Let's roll the Guice then.

While we drink the juice? 

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6 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

I still dont know how this name is pronounced. Like juice or gice or something different? Darrius is easy though.

I always thought it was "goose"

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I thought it rhymed with "Ice"

As in:

You're as cold as Guice. You're willing to sacrifice Bryce Love.

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