No doubt, but they knew he was injured (and would likely miss 2019) when they spent a 4th on him to backup Guice in 2020.
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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Not a whole lot of love and talk on Guice. Hmm... I just picked him up for free on FA. I'm sure he'll get a fair shot to see his talents. I don't think he's got a large enough sample size yet. Worth a stash I guess.
Edit: I get it bad team that is committed to rushing the ball.
Edit: I get it bad team that is committed to rushing the ball.
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I am not minimizing the fact that Guice has had two issues now, and the implications/risk that comes with it. However I think that risk is a little less of an issue than it was in the past given advancements in sports medicine and surgery/rehab for these injuries. I mean, the Skins already have a back that rewrote the book on expectations and performance coming back from a serious injury.
To the first point, if there was a chance that rehabbing longer would help recovery, they wouldn't clear him to play with ADP doing a solid job. But I get the point that it's the Skins who don't seem to have a great track record this year of "protecting a player's long-term value." But I don't think any team does -- it's always a win now league.
To the second point, again, I am not sure you can operate -- as an athlete or in terms of team management -- based on the potential or probability of injury/re-injury that's impossible to predict. Concussions might qualify as an injury where the risk increases with each successive one, but even then, if a player clears protocol, they are back on the field regardless of that greater potential risk.
Is that an actual thing? Is there data to support it? I am not sure I've ever hear that that's a demonstrable trend.
ahartig
Footballguy
Wild guess - 50/50 split this weekend, transitioning to 70/30 in favor of guice week 12 and on
I'm about the same - thinking 64/40 in favor of ADP this week then Guice ramping up. Unfortunately this probably makes both irreverent for now.
We’re giving Redskins’ backs a 4% bonus to try to make them competitive?
Best fantasy adjustment concept since ppr!
VikingFrog
Footballguy
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I honestly don't know. Peterson has always been labelled as a two-down back who isn't a strong pass catcher. Wasn't really leaned on in college, and I remember that strain while he was on the Vikings and then joined the Saints (e.g. can he help in the passing game on a pass-heavy team? Likely not). Though he was used last year to a small degree (20 receptions of 26 targets for 208 yards), he is definitely way off pace for that this year.
One of the knocks on Guice was that he was slower on breaks as a receiver, but as a back who isn't a pure between the tackles runner, and one who can leverage space well, I have to think the team gives him some of CT's targets if he can't go. He got 3 targets/3 receptions/20 yards in the first game until he got injured
Need some points from him this week, so would be great if they used Guice in that facet of the game.
fatness
Footballguy
Thompson is out for Sunday. He's like Jordan Reed, these one-time "offensive weapons" the Redskins hang onto for several unproductive years.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
AP put in a full practice FRI. CT was DNP.
Has that actually been announced?
I know they will run AP right at this Jets rush D and try to establish the ground game. But if Derrius can pick up some of CT's passing work?
Guice Guice baby.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
starting over Ty Johnson and Peyton Barber, so I have no other good options. I am expecting about 30 rushing yards, 4 receptions and 20 receiving yard. I'd be thrilled with double digit points
That one guy
Footballguy
It’s between Guice and JD McKissic for me and I’m going Guice for the homerun potential. Being a ppr league I expect their floor to be similar
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I think that is the right decision for many reasons. Hill isn't exciting but the volume should be there. Guice is exciting on paper but we just don't know anything about his usage.
fatness
Footballguy
It has been announced when I posted it and is still the same right now. He's on the inactive list.
Absolutely Nothing
Footballguy
Caught a touchdown, it looks like he is filling a role similar to how Thompson was used when healthy- spelling Peterson and catching passes. In a blowout on his first game back, this probably isn’t indicative of the future, but overall he didn’t look BAD.
Chaka
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
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ahartig
Footballguy
Just re-watched the highlights of the game, Guice could have had 3 TDs, easy. He was in as the goal line back on two separate plays/drives in the 4th quarter from inside the 5, both were play action and short TD passes to tight ends.... I'll be starting him next week, DJ and Sony owner here 
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The Frankman
Footballguy
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
dynasty owners, what are you planning to do with him? I've put him on the block and I'm not sure what I should be looking for. I'm thinking a low 1st would be enough for me to finally get off this train.
That one guy
Footballguy
I see no reason to accept anything less than a 2020 1st, but I doubt many are paying that. The couple leagues I drafted him in, simply looking at him as a free RB lottery ticket going into next season as his original draft cost is fully sunk now
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
This draft is so hyped up I doubt you can get a 1st for him either but I’d take it if I could get it.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade a first for him in most leagues. I have him in two leagues, both are super flex so I'd be probably take a low first for him with this class.
Chaka
Footballguy
Not sure I would bail on Guice when we all know so much is going to change in Washington this offseason.
You're most likely going to see a new coaching staff, AP will probably be gone and Chris Thompson is an unrestricted free agent. The team has needs everywhere and RB is generally a pretty low priority in the NFL, so a high pick on a RB or a splash FA signing seems unlikely.
It seems very likely that whoever heads the new regime will have Guice as the 1A in any RB situation going into the season. Not sure you are going to be able to get a better RoI in a trade.
You're most likely going to see a new coaching staff, AP will probably be gone and Chris Thompson is an unrestricted free agent. The team has needs everywhere and RB is generally a pretty low priority in the NFL, so a high pick on a RB or a splash FA signing seems unlikely.
It seems very likely that whoever heads the new regime will have Guice as the 1A in any RB situation going into the season. Not sure you are going to be able to get a better RoI in a trade.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I want him to work out so badly, but 3 knee surgeries in 15 months is hars to over look granted, the meniscus thing isnt a major deal, but it kind of is if the meniscus didnt heal, which is incredibly possible considering the probability of success in that surgery.
Part of me wants off no matter what. Best case scenario, IMO, is that 2020 Guice is no better than 2019 Mixon. Worst case scenario is that he has another knee injury and ends up worthless.
Guess I'll hold and hope he ends the season well to generate hype. Haskins is terrible so far though, so I'm not sure the future is very bright
Chaka
Footballguy
You may be right about him but IMO it would be short sighted to consider trading him before this season is over. He won't net you much right now and you are getting at least a glimpse of what he may, or may not be able to do. That TD catch was very nice and mostly on him.
I also think you are way off base about his best case scenario, or maybe did not consider what the term "best case scenario" means. I think 2017 Gurley makes a good case for your best & worst case scenarios. He was pretty much written off as maybe a high volume guy who would never get right physically then delivered huge for two seasons (best case). And he did it on a team that many of us considered to be devoid of talent. Now it looks like the injury did catch up to him, or at least the Rams have been keeping him in bubble wrap because of it (worst case).
But, how many titles did Gurley deliver and how much more value could you have gotten in a trade for him after 2017, or even 2018?
It just seems to me that you are selling Guice very close to his theoretical nadir relative to his upside. Unless you find a sucker, I don't see the value for you in that scenario.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Good points all around. I think Gurley is not as fair of a comparison because Guice hasnt played due to health. I think you make a good point though that he dpeant pose much value today in terms of what he could be if he finishes the season well and has a good start to next year.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.
I think there is plenty of opportunity for Guice to get right enough health wise to produce at a high level for awhile at least.
Either way selling now is too little value. If he bombs you won't get much less for him than you will now. But if he shows anything at all his value will increase probably more than it should.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Thanks for talking me off the ledge. I think you make some real good points. I'm just antsy since my RBs have been bombs this year (barkley, mixon, guice, henderson)
-OZ-
Footballguy
If he bombs the rest of the season and into next year, you won't be getting a 1st.
All my leagues are past the trade deadline anyway, so it's a non issue for now (for me). But if I can get Fromm or tua in super flex, I'd have to consider it. Plus the RB and WR class looks strong.
Chaka
Footballguy
But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.
You're selling at the bottom which doesn't make sense. His value likely won't get lower so you might as well hold.
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inyoutees
Footballguy
Just one more anecdotal data point. I bought Guice and a pick for spare parts a month ago. Might he be a zero? Absolutely yes. But I believe there are asymmetric outcomes here - the change in value if he goes to zero pales in comparison to the change in value if he hits, even if just for one season. As you (Dr. Dan) said, the right time to sell is probably draft if he finishes strong or middle of next season if he's put in some good tape. As usual though, the contending vs rebuilding spectrum can change the math.
That said, if you can get a first for him, that's probably where I have to start thinking about it. I expect getting that offer would be tough sledding though
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
-OZ-
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
here's my dilemma with selling... and I realize this is fickle as a few hours ago I wanted to sell him, but it's how I can be sometimes
Sell Guice for, let's say a low 1st. I think most people here would take that, not many would pay it.
We l can hopefully agree that he has a favorable situation next year at the rb position.
Next years class is pretty good, however there are maybe 3-4 RBs I have good faith in. There are maybe 4 WRs that I like, however I have to run my analysis still to rule out likely busts. So if I trade for 1.10-1.12 chances of me hitting one of those guys is low. So I'm stuck with a guy who is not a complete back, or a wr which I dont really need on my team as I stand to be drafting Jeudy anyways.
So for me personally it's a hard sell. I'm trying to move him along with others for a mid 1st but I am doubting as that guy doesnt like to trade his firsts.
I do think Guice has big upside. IMO his injuries are a little over blown; had he not had his infection hed be pretty darn close to on par with Dalvin Cook 2018. IMO Cook is a much better comp to this situation than anyone else.
Sell Guice for, let's say a low 1st. I think most people here would take that, not many would pay it.
We l can hopefully agree that he has a favorable situation next year at the rb position.
Next years class is pretty good, however there are maybe 3-4 RBs I have good faith in. There are maybe 4 WRs that I like, however I have to run my analysis still to rule out likely busts. So if I trade for 1.10-1.12 chances of me hitting one of those guys is low. So I'm stuck with a guy who is not a complete back, or a wr which I dont really need on my team as I stand to be drafting Jeudy anyways.
So for me personally it's a hard sell. I'm trying to move him along with others for a mid 1st but I am doubting as that guy doesnt like to trade his firsts.
I do think Guice has big upside. IMO his injuries are a little over blown; had he not had his infection hed be pretty darn close to on par with Dalvin Cook 2018. IMO Cook is a much better comp to this situation than anyone else.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
If he makes it through this season without a major injury or any kind of significant rehab I’m definitely holding him. The talent is there and depending on how the draft plays out so could the reps as well
zamboni
Footballguy
Thinking of buying him on the cheap in my deep keeper league.
Good thoughts above that we have no idea who the new coaching staff will be and how they address free agency/draft with so many needs.
What kind of odds do people think that as long as he doesn't get hurt, he'll be starting next year?
Good thoughts above that we have no idea who the new coaching staff will be and how they address free agency/draft with so many needs.
What kind of odds do people think that as long as he doesn't get hurt, he'll be starting next year?
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I dont know what to do with him either.
I hate owning Washington players. Too much can go wrong...
I hate owning Washington players. Too much can go wrong...
