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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

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Derrius Guice rushed seven times for 24 yards and caught a 45-yard touchdown in the Redskins' Week 11 loss to the Jets.

Guice entered the game as the clear backup -- Adrian Peterson started and saw the first two series -- but he may have earned more work moving forward. Guice picked up a 45-yard touchdown on a screen pass and was slightly more effective running between the tackles as AP. With that being said, the Redskins aren't likely to make Guice a workhorse in 2019 given his injury history. Guice is a bench stash and low-end flex play for those in trouble.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Just re-watched the highlights of the game, Guice could have had 3 TDs, easy.  He was in as the goal line back on two separate plays/drives in the 4th quarter from inside the 5, both were play action and short TD passes to tight ends.... I'll be starting him next week, DJ and Sony owner here 😫

Edited by ahartig
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Derrius Guice rushed 10 times for 32 yards in Washington's Week 12 win over the Lions.

Guice out-snapped Adrian Peterson (10/27) but still split carries down the middle with 10 apiece. Neither found any amount of space or success on the ground, combining for 20/59 and 2.95 yards per carry. Wendell Smallwood was also involved sparingly behind both. Carolina's lowly run defense makes for an amazing matchup for Guice in Week 13, but this backfield can't be trusted at its current state. Chris Thompson (toe) is also likely to return and further complicate matters. Guice is just a bench stash as the fantasy playoffs get underway.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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dynasty owners, what are you planning to do with him? I've put him on the block and I'm not sure what I should be looking for. I'm thinking a low 1st would be enough for me to finally get off this train. 

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25 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

dynasty owners, what are you planning to do with him? I've put him on the block and I'm not sure what I should be looking for. I'm thinking a low 1st would be enough for me to finally get off this train. 

I see no reason to accept anything less than a 2020 1st, but I doubt many are paying that.  The couple leagues I drafted him in, simply looking at him as a free RB lottery ticket going into next season as his original draft cost is fully sunk now

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58 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

dynasty owners, what are you planning to do with him? I've put him on the block and I'm not sure what I should be looking for. I'm thinking a low 1st would be enough for me to finally get off this train. 

I wouldn't trade a first for him in most leagues. I have him in two leagues, both are super flex so I'd be probably take a low first for him with this class.

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Not sure I would bail on Guice when we all know so much is going to change in Washington this offseason.

You're most likely going to see a new coaching staff, AP will probably be gone and Chris Thompson is an unrestricted free agent.  The team has needs everywhere and RB is generally a pretty low priority in the NFL, so a high pick on a RB or a splash FA signing seems unlikely.

It seems very likely that whoever heads the new regime will have Guice as the 1A in any RB situation going into the season.  Not sure you are going to be able to get a better RoI in a trade.

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16 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Not sure I would bail on Guice when we all know so much is going to change in Washington this offseason.

You're most likely going to see a new coaching staff, AP will probably be gone and Chris Thompson is an unrestricted free agent.  The team has needs everywhere and RB is generally a pretty low priority in the NFL, so a high pick on a RB or a splash FA signing seems unlikely.

It seems very likely that whoever heads the new regime will have Guice as the 1A in any RB situation going into the season.  Not sure you are going to be able to get a better RoI in a trade.

I want him to work out so badly, but 3 knee surgeries in 15 months is hars to over look granted, the meniscus thing isnt a major deal, but it kind of is if the meniscus didnt heal, which is incredibly possible considering the probability of success in that surgery. 

Part of me wants off no matter what. Best case scenario, IMO, is that 2020 Guice is no better than 2019 Mixon. Worst case scenario is that he has another knee injury and ends up worthless. 

Guess I'll hold and hope he ends the season well to generate hype. Haskins is terrible so far though, so I'm not sure the future is very bright 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

I want him to work out so badly, but 3 knee surgeries in 15 months is hars to over look granted, the meniscus thing isnt a major deal, but it kind of is if the meniscus didnt heal, which is incredibly possible considering the probability of success in that surgery. 

Part of me wants off no matter what. Best case scenario, IMO, is that 2020 Guice is no better than 2019 Mixon. Worst case scenario is that he has another knee injury and ends up worthless. 

Guess I'll hold and hope he ends the season well to generate hype. Haskins is terrible so far though, so I'm not sure the future is very bright 

You may be right about him but IMO it would be short sighted to consider trading him before this season is over.  He won't net you much right now and you are getting at least a glimpse of what he may, or may not be able to do.  That TD catch was very nice and mostly on him.

I also think you are way off base about his best case scenario, or maybe did not consider what the term "best case scenario" means.  I think 2017 Gurley makes a good case for your best & worst case scenarios.  He was pretty much written off as maybe a high volume guy who would never get right physically then delivered huge for two seasons (best case). And he did it on a team that many of us considered to be devoid of talent.  Now it looks like the injury did catch up to him, or at least the Rams have been keeping him in bubble wrap because of it (worst case).  

But, how many titles did Gurley deliver and how much more value could you have gotten in a trade for him after 2017, or even 2018?

It just seems to me that you are selling Guice very close to his theoretical nadir relative to his upside.  Unless you find a sucker, I don't see the value for you in that scenario.

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23 minutes ago, Chaka said:

You may be right about him but IMO it would be short sighted to consider trading him before this season is over.  He won't net you much right now and you are getting at least a glimpse of what he may, or may not be able to do.  That TD catch was very nice and mostly on him.

I also think you are way off base about his best case scenario, or maybe did not consider what the term "best case scenario" means.  I think 2017 Gurley makes a good case for your best & worst case scenarios.  He was pretty much written off as maybe a high volume guy who would never get right physically then delivered huge for two seasons (best case). And he did it on a team that many of us considered to be devoid of talent.  Now it looks like the injury did catch up to him, or at least the Rams have been keeping him in bubble wrap because of it (worst case).  

But, how many titles did Gurley deliver and how much more value could you have gotten in a trade for him after 2017, or even 2018?

It just seems to me that you are selling Guice very close to his theoretical nadir relative to his upside.  Unless you find a sucker, I don't see the value for you in that scenario.

Good points all around. I think Gurley is not as fair of a comparison because Guice hasnt played due to health. I think you make a good point though that he dpeant pose much value today in terms of what he could be if he finishes the season well and has a good start to next year. 

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Good points all around. I think Gurley is not as fair of a comparison because Guice hasnt played due to health. I think you make a good point though that he dpeant pose much value today in terms of what he could be if he finishes the season well and has a good start to next year. 

Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.

I think there is plenty of opportunity for Guice to get right enough health wise to produce at a high level for awhile at least.

Either way selling now is too little value. If he bombs you won't get much less for him than you will now. But if he shows anything at all his value will increase probably more than it should.

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24 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.

I think there is plenty of opportunity for Guice to get right enough health wise to produce at a high level for awhile at least.

Either way selling now is too little value. If he bombs you won't get much less for him than you will now. But if he shows anything at all his value will increase probably more than it should.

Thanks for talking me off the ledge. I think you make some real good points. I'm just antsy since my RBs have been bombs this year (barkley, mixon, guice, henderson)

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1 hour ago, Chaka said:

Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.

I think there is plenty of opportunity for Guice to get right enough health wise to produce at a high level for awhile at least.

Either way selling now is too little value. If he bombs you won't get much less for him than you will now. But if he shows anything at all his value will increase probably more than it should.

If he bombs the rest of the season and into next year, you won't be getting a 1st.  

All my leagues are past the trade deadline anyway, so it's a non issue for now (for me). But if I can get Fromm or tua in super flex, I'd have to consider it. Plus the RB and WR class looks strong.

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5 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

If he bombs the rest of the season and into next year, you won't be getting a 1st.  

All my leagues are past the trade deadline anyway, so it's a non issue for now (for me). But if I can get Fromm or tua in super flex, I'd have to consider it. Plus the RB and WR class looks strong.

But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.

You're selling at the bottom which doesn't make sense.  His value likely won't get lower so you might as well hold.

Edited by Chaka

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3 minutes ago, Chaka said:

But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.

You're selling at the bottom which doesn't make sense.  His value likely won't get lower so you might as well hold.

Just one more anecdotal data point.  I bought Guice and a pick for spare parts a month ago.  Might he be a zero?  Absolutely yes.  But I believe there are asymmetric outcomes here - the change in value if he goes to zero pales in comparison to the change in value if he hits, even if just for one season.  As you (Dr. Dan) said, the right time to sell is probably draft if he finishes strong or middle of next season if he's put in some good tape.  As usual though, the contending vs rebuilding spectrum can change the math.  

That said, if you can get a first for him, that's probably where I have to start thinking about it.  I expect getting that offer would be tough sledding though

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3 hours ago, Chaka said:

I think 2017 Gurley makes a good case for your best & worst case scenarios. 

I'm thinking Nick Chubb too.  

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8 minutes ago, One said:

 

I'm thinking Nick Chubb too.  

:goodposting:

Although I don't think Chubb has the medical concerns that are surrounding Guice. 

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2 hours ago, Chaka said:

But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.

You're selling at the bottom which doesn't make sense.  His value likely won't get lower so you might as well hold.

If I can get him for a 2nd, I'm probably all over it - depending on needs.

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here's my dilemma with selling... and I realize this is fickle as a few hours ago I wanted to sell him, but it's how I can be sometimes

 

Sell Guice for, let's say a low 1st. I think most people here would take that, not many would pay it. 

We l can hopefully agree that he has a favorable situation next year at the rb position. 

Next years class is pretty good, however there are maybe 3-4 RBs I have good faith in. There are maybe 4 WRs that I like, however I have to run my analysis still to rule out likely busts. So if I trade for 1.10-1.12 chances of me hitting one of those guys is low. So I'm stuck with a guy who is not a complete back, or a wr which I dont really need on my team as I stand to be drafting Jeudy anyways.

So for me personally it's a hard sell. I'm trying to move him along with others for a mid 1st but I am doubting as that guy doesnt like to trade his firsts. 

I do think Guice has big upside. IMO his injuries are a little over blown; had he not had his infection hed be pretty darn close to on par with Dalvin Cook 2018. IMO Cook is a much better comp to this situation than anyone else. 

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If he makes it through this season without a major injury or any kind of significant rehab I’m definitely holding him. The talent is there and depending on how the draft plays out so could the reps as well

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Thinking of buying him on the cheap in my deep keeper league.

Good thoughts above that we have no idea who the new coaching staff will be and how they address free agency/draft with so many needs.

What kind of odds do people think that as long as he doesn't get hurt, he'll be starting next year?

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9 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I dont know what to do with him either.

I hate owning Washington players.  Too much can go wrong...

I have him and McLaurin and feel really good about it 🤷‍♂️

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1 minute ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I have him and McLaurin and feel really good about it 🤷‍♂️

Why do you feel good about it? 

I own them both too. 

Afraid horrible coaching, bad supporting cast, bad QB play, a minor procedure turning into endless infections, etc are not making me feel good about it.  Players on really bad teams usually don't produce, especially RBs. 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Why do you feel good about it? 

I own them both too. 

Afraid horrible coaching, bad supporting cast, bad QB play, a minor procedure turning into endless infections, etc are not making me feel good about it.  Players on really bad teams usually don't produce, especially RBs. 

Guice is young, looks good to me and is getting more and more reps. IF he makes it through the rest of this season without any injuries that require rehab I’ll feel even better. He’s just 22 and they’re giving him 3rd down work too. Obviously I’ll wait to see who they get as a HC though. 

Yes they are bad this year but things in the NFL turn around quickly. Our division (I’m an Eagles fan) is also very bad. They can compete as soon as next season. 

McLaurin is going to be really good. Wouldn’t shock me if he enters top 10 PPR as soon as next season. 

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From a dynasty perspective, he has to be a hold unless you are desperate to get _anything_ for him ahead of your league's trading deadline.  In that case, you're probably only looking at a future 2nd or someone else's broken parts.

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18 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Guice is young, looks good to me and is getting more and more reps. IF he makes it through the rest of this season without any injuries that require rehab I’ll feel even better. He’s just 22 and they’re giving him 3rd down work too. Obviously I’ll wait to see who they get as a HC though. 

Yes they are bad this year but things in the NFL turn around quickly. Our division (I’m an Eagles fan) is also very bad. They can compete as soon as next season. 

McLaurin is going to be really good. Wouldn’t shock me if he enters top 10 PPR as soon as next season. 

This

And yet that's the hardest call for me this week. If I thought guice would get another ten snaps or so it might be an easy call. But right now I need to pick between him, Bo, and Hyde at rb2, then those guys, Gage or diontae at flex 🤔😕

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19 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Guice is young, looks good to me and is getting more and more reps. IF he makes it through the rest of this season without any injuries that require rehab I’ll feel even better. He’s just 22 and they’re giving him 3rd down work too. Obviously I’ll wait to see who they get as a HC though. 

Yes they are bad this year but things in the NFL turn around quickly. Our division (I’m an Eagles fan) is also very bad. They can compete as soon as next season. 

McLaurin is going to be really good. Wouldn’t shock me if he enters top 10 PPR as soon as next season. 

the odds are stacked against him pretty significantly 

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Derrius Guice rushed 10 times for 129 yards and two touchdowns in the Redskins' Week 13 win over the Panthers.

Guice was phenomenal against a porous Panthers run defense. He showed a ton of strength while running through arm tackles and had enough wiggle in space to create big plays. Guice's two touchdowns were both at the goal-line, which is a good sign that he's getting those looks over Adrian Peterson. AP was also fantastic today, rushing for 99 yards and a score on a team-high 13 carries. This is still a committee backfield and will be hard to fully trust given what we've seen from the offense. Guice will be a boom-or-bust flex play in Green Back next week. Expect him to handle 8-14 touches then.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Was sooo close to dropping him.

Legit flex now. Gotta think this performance gives the staff more incentive to give him more touches.

Haskins also looking a little more competent as well and the D isn't a pushover.

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

might be able to actually trade him for something this offseason

You'll absolutely be able to flip him if you need to improve your team elsewhere.  The question is do you really want to?  At a minimum I'd hold until you know who the next coach will be.  Me, I've been holding since last year and will continue to do so in belief he takes over the backfield in 2020.  

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3 minutes ago, popeye said:

You'll absolutely be able to flip him if you need to improve your team elsewhere.  The question is do you really want to?  At a minimum I'd hold until you know who the next coach will be.  Me, I've been holding since last year and will continue to do so in belief he takes over the backfield in 2020.  

I have long term concerns. if he ends the season as good as he played today then he is a hold, but I have health concerns 

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18 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I have long term concerns. if he ends the season as good as he played today then he is a hold, but I have health concerns 

It seems like you already made up your mind despite mounting evidence that he may be a strong hold.

On 31 touches over the last three games he has gains of 60, 45 & that 37 yard monster. He has scored three TDs, two of which were at the goal line and he has been used regularly in the passing game.  Injury concerns or not you shouldn't make a move until after the season at the earliest and probably best served if you wait until after the draft.

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Forget week 16...If Cousins gets me what I need tonight and I make the playoffs, I am very strongly considering marching Guice out there instead of Kamara (CMC is my #1 rb).  I'm sick of hearing about Kamara's upside.  Please talk me off the ledge.

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For this year ROS, do we actually think they start giving Guice the reins a little more?

I don't think so -- even with the argument that they need to see what they have in Guice as a featured back, I don't see why from both a risk and potential impact standpoint the team doesn't simply continue to split carries between Guice and ADP.

Add a healthy Chris Thompson back into the mix, and despite a good match up or two down the stretch, and despite his obvious talent, I am not sure Guice has the volume to trust as a flex option in the playoffs this year.

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8 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

For this year ROS, do we actually think they start giving Guice the reins a little more?

I don't think so -- even with the argument that they need to see what they have in Guice as a featured back, I don't see why from both a risk and potential impact standpoint the team doesn't simply continue to split carries between Guice and ADP.

Add a healthy Chris Thompson back into the mix, and despite a good match up or two down the stretch, and despite his obvious talent, I am not sure Guice has the volume to trust as a flex option in the playoffs this year.

Agreed on all fronts. As long as ADP is productive and healthy there is no compelling reason to kick him to the curb. 13/99/1 is pretty productive.

Plus Callahan is auditioning for the HC job...he'll field whatever team he thinks is going to get him the "W"...not just to get guys on tape.

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14 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

For this year ROS, do we actually think they start giving Guice the reins a little more?

I don't think so -- even with the argument that they need to see what they have in Guice as a featured back, I don't see why from both a risk and potential impact standpoint the team doesn't simply continue to split carries between Guice and ADP.

Add a healthy Chris Thompson back into the mix, and despite a good match up or two down the stretch, and despite his obvious talent, I am not sure Guice has the volume to trust as a flex option in the playoffs this year.

I wish I knew how that committee was going to work.   I don't think Guice becomes the feature back.    Doesn't seem worth the ris for the Redskins.   Add Thompson to the mix and Guice is probably getting 35-40% of the touches IMO.   

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4 hours ago, Chaka said:

It seems like you already made up your mind despite mounting evidence that he may be a strong hold.

On 31 touches over the last three games he has gains of 60, 45 & that 37 yard monster. He has scored three TDs, two of which were at the goal line and he has been used regularly in the passing game.  Injury concerns or not you shouldn't make a move until after the season at the earliest and probably best served if you wait until after the draft.

you're right, but I'm not convinced yet. I would love to feel different in 6 months

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39 minutes ago, Silver & Black said:

Forget week 16...If Cousins gets me what I need tonight and I make the playoffs, I am very strongly considering marching Guice out there instead of Kamara (CMC is my #1 rb).  I'm sick of hearing about Kamara's upside.  Please talk me off the ledge.

I have both and it has never even crossed my mind to bench Kamara (zeke is my #2).  He just came off back to back 20 point weeks.  
 

That said I’ll probably start Guice in my redraft league next week over the Steelers scrubs I’ve been starting.  

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Over the last three games Guice has three carries from the one yard line (2 TDs), Peterson has zero.

I think he is flex worthy on his 10 or so carries and 2-3 targets/game going forward.  I don't see Chris Thompson impacting his market share in the least.

 

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1 hour ago, Chaka said:

Over the last three games Guice has three carries from the one yard line (2 TDs), Peterson has zero.

I think he is flex worthy on his 10 or so carries and 2-3 targets/game going forward.  I don't see Chris Thompson impacting his market share in the least.

 

He's also had 3 explosive plays in the last two games.

What other RBs can say that?

Edited by kyoun1e
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11 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

He's also had 3 explosive games in the last two games.

What other RBs can say that?

Probably no one. That is seriously impressive

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