What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

FWIW: Rappaport reported Saturday morning that Guice got into a shouting match with someone during his Eagles visit and that another unnamed source stated that it was the worst player interview they'd every conducted.

I believe the Eagles have denied these reports. Either way, it's way too :tinfoilhat:  to think "rumors" caused the Eagles to pass on him considering they had him in for an actual visit. Maybe a whole lot of teams just didn't like him that much, Occam's Razor and all.
But the whole issue is that a lot of teams passed on him, not just the Eagles.  And I don't think those reports about the shouting match with Philly came out until AFTER he had already slid past all those other teams that needed a RB while the rumor about the TMZ rumor came out just before they passed on him.

 
But the whole issue is that a lot of teams passed on him, not just the Eagles.  And I don't think those reports about the shouting match with Philly came out until AFTER he had already slid past all those other teams that needed a RB while the rumor about the TMZ rumor came out just before they passed on him.
The shouting match clarification came out after, but the rumor of him getting into an "altercation while on the Eagles visit" was already out there. As were rumors of missed flights, late to meetings, etc. Look no further than 2 pages back where Skeletore posted the Eagles thing shortly before Guice was picked by the Redskins. I recall it being mentioned on live television Friday night while I was watching the NFLN.

Ultimately, I don't think any of these rumors matter at all after teams did months of their own analysis and background checks and in person meetings, it's not like he was taking a bong hit on somebody's cellphone video.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ross Tucker surmised on his podcast today that the rumors could have been spread from the agent that was fired.

I could see a spiteful agent definitely do that to cause his former meal ticket to lose money.

 
Ross Tucker surmised on his podcast today that the rumors could have been spread from the agent that was fired.

I could see a spiteful agent definitely do that to cause his former meal ticket to lose money.
I listened to that yesterday and was going to get around to posting it here.

I went and looked some stuff up after I heard it and all I'll say is believable. He first signed with place called Top Dawg I think. It's more of a record label than sports agent, he was in fact the only athlete. Kendrick Lamar is their big guy and after he signed he was posting photos of him and Lamar. Then a few weeks ago he left them for Lil Wayne's group, which at least has other athletes. You think of stuff like rumored TMZ video leak and while just a theory seems plausible.

It's like he's almost caught up in a hip hop war. Which frankly is probably part of the whole picture with him where he could stand to be a little more professional.

But I think for sure something went down with his visit with Philly.

 
This guy has to be the least talked about top 2 or 3 FF rookie draft pick ever.  I had to go to page 5 to find this thread because it has been a week since the last post.  Very strange
While I agree and I’m an investor, I believe him to be #2 but he just happens to be in a draft in which there are several backs who are just as talented and most of them landed in ideal spots. That’s whats strange, this year it was the TEs and WRs who landed in undesirable spots. It’s usually the backs who we coveted that mostly land in a crowed backfield......not this year so all of these backs are getting a great deal of attention.

Tex

 
This guy has to be the least talked about top 2 or 3 FF rookie draft pick ever.  I had to go to page 5 to find this thread because it has been a week since the last post.  Very strange
Actually this thread is 11 pages long now, while the thread for Johnson and Jones are only 6 pages right now, Freeman 5 pages.

I think a lot of what people had to say about Guice was before the NFL draft and I don't have too much to add at this time. 

I was talking about Guice in the Jones thread recently though.

:shrug:

 
My biggest concern about Guice vis-a-vis the other rookie RBs isn't his reputation, but the fact that he he won't see many passes. Gruden has already said as much, and they have one of the best 3rd down guys in the game in Chris Thompson, who is signed for at least the next few years.

While it's still a good landing spot, he looks to be more game script dependent than the Barkleys, Pennys, and Joneses of the world. Certainly a big factor in PPR leagues.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My biggest concern about Guice vis-a-vis the other rookie RBs isn't his reputation, but the fact that he he won't see many passes. Gruden has already said as much, and they have one of the best 3rd down guys in the game in Chris Thompson, who is signed for at least the next few years.

While it's still a good landing spot, he looks to be more game script dependent than the Barkleys, Pennys, and Joneses of the world. Certainly a big factor in PPR leagues.
That’s a fair assessment for redraft but for dynasty things change so often that it would be difficult for me to drop him based on them already having a strong 3rd down back. Thompson is 27 and has an extensive injury injury history. If you really want to put the rose coloured glasses on, Thompson might be a benefit to Guice if Guice can learn from him in the passing game. 

 
My biggest concern on Guice vis-a-vis the other rookie RBs isn't his reputation, but the fact that he he won't see many passes. Gruden has already said as much, and they have one of the best 3rd down guys in the game in Chris Thompson, who is signed for at least the next few years.

While it's still a good landing spot, he looks to be more game script dependent than the Barkleys, Pennys, and Joneses of the world. Certainly a big factor in PPR leagues.
I hear ya but all that’s going to change when Guice catch a few passes and take it to the house. It’s going to be difficult to keep him off the field.

Tex

 
That’s a fair assessment for redraft but for dynasty things change so often that it would be difficult for me to drop him based on them already having a strong 3rd down back. Thompson is 27 and has an extensive injury injury history. If you really want to put the rose coloured glasses on, Thompson might be a benefit to Guice if Guice can learn from him in the passing game. 
Fair point. His old college teammate Fournette caught all of 41 passes in his three years at LSU and then caught 36 as an NFL rookie even with a good 3rd down back in Yeldon on board. I guess the same could happen with Guice - could be that LSU backs just aren't asked to catch the ball much.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Fair point. His old college teammate Fournette caught all of 41 passes in his three years at LSU and then caught 36 as an NFL rookie even with a good 3rd down back in Yeldon on board. I guess the same could happen with Guice - could be that LSU backs just aren't asked to catch the ball much.
That and the fact for all their talent they quite often have a Pop Warner level QB...

 
Fair point. His old college teammate Fournette caught all of 41 passes in his three years at LSU and then caught 36 as an NFL rookie even with a good 3rd down back in Yeldon on board. I guess the same could happen with Guice - could be that LSU backs just aren't asked to catch the ball much.
LSU is the only University who can produce NFL quality, Pro Bowl WRs who are not ranked in the top 150! If there WRs are only catching 50 passes a year we certainly can’t knock these NFL, Pro Bowl quality Running Backs! ;)

The issue is QB.

Tex

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My biggest concern about Guice vis-a-vis the other rookie RBs isn't his reputation, but the fact that he he won't see many passes. Gruden has already said as much, and they have one of the best 3rd down guys in the game in Chris Thompson, who is signed for at least the next few years.

While it's still a good landing spot, he looks to be more game script dependent than the Barkleys, Pennys, and Joneses of the world. Certainly a big factor in PPR leagues.
Think big picture, if he plays to his capabilities then they will get him touches.  A lot of touches.  There's a legit reason to doubt he plays to his abilities, but imho that's his only risk.

 
That’s a fair assessment for redraft but for dynasty things change so often that it would be difficult for me to drop him based on them already having a strong 3rd down back. Thompson is 27 and has an extensive injury injury history. If you really want to put the rose coloured glasses on, Thompson might be a benefit to Guice if Guice can learn from him in the passing game. 
Exactly.  Situations change fast in dynasty, so talent should always reign supreme.  Thompson is a nice player, but not the kind of talent to make me pass up on a guy as talented as Guice 

 
Fair point. His old college teammate Fournette caught all of 41 passes in his three years at LSU and then caught 36 as an NFL rookie even with a good 3rd down back in Yeldon on board. I guess the same could happen with Guice - could be that LSU backs just aren't asked to catch the ball much.
The LSU RB really aren't asked to do that much.

I noted from my charting that Guice was a bit slow to release out on routes after checking for the blitz. This could be him just being slow to process, but it also may be how he is coached to wait that long. Defenders seem happy to just not blitz and neutralize Guice by just having a defender spy him.

In addition to this Guice rounds off his routes, two of his best receptions came off of shovel passes which Guice just hides behind his lineman after play action then the QB flips it to him and he does the rest. He does have a GREAT run after one of these picking up a lot of yards on his own.

In his game against Florida I only gave him credit for one good route run. He was targeted 3 times (so two routes that did not get credit for route running) and he drops two of these, bringing some questions about his catching technique in that game.

Overall from the 10 games charted he only gets credit for 10 good routes run, some games he has zero, most of the games he has one. The Louisville game with 3 and another game with two. He does catch 3 in the Louisville game so thats not bad, but in my notes I am talking about him being slow to release.

These criticisms are about things that I think are very coachable, so I don't see it as a big deal. It is mostly that LSU doesn't ask their RB to do these things, not that he isn't capable of doing them. The two drops from the Florida game would be more of a concern if I had seen him drop passes in other games as well, I didn't.

Only time will tell but I think Guice may be fine as a receiver, he just wasn't used as one by LSU to be sure.

I do have Ronald Jones running more routes than Guice does in the games I charted for him, and he does a better job of that from what I have seen of both of them. Jones just isn't targeted by Darnold much, even when he likely should have. For Jones I only charted 4 games, he has 3.75 positive routes per game in those, while Guice was only running one positive route per game from the 10 games charted. I would definitely give Jones an edge there.

That said Charles Sims and Quizz Rodgers are similarly good COP receiving RB to Chris Thompson and there is a pass catching RB for every one of these rookie RB to compete with for those opportunities as a receiver except for Barkley and Penny.

 
The LSU RB really aren't asked to do that much.

I noted from my charting that Guice was a bit slow to release out on routes after checking for the blitz. This could be him just being slow to process, but it also may be how he is coached to wait that long. Defenders seem happy to just not blitz and neutralize Guice by just having a defender spy him.

In addition to this Guice rounds off his routes, two of his best receptions came off of shovel passes which Guice just hides behind his lineman after play action then the QB flips it to him and he does the rest. He does have a GREAT run after one of these picking up a lot of yards on his own.

In his game against Florida I only gave him credit for one good route run. He was targeted 3 times (so two routes that did not get credit for route running) and he drops two of these, bringing some questions about his catching technique in that game.

Overall from the 10 games charted he only gets credit for 10 good routes run, some games he has zero, most of the games he has one. The Louisville game with 3 and another game with two. He does catch 3 in the Louisville game so thats not bad, but in my notes I am talking about him being slow to release.

These criticisms are about things that I think are very coachable, so I don't see it as a big deal. It is mostly that LSU doesn't ask their RB to do these things, not that he isn't capable of doing them. The two drops from the Florida game would be more of a concern if I had seen him drop passes in other games as well, I didn't.

Only time will tell but I think Guice may be fine as a receiver, he just wasn't used as one by LSU to be sure.

I do have Ronald Jones running more routes than Guice does in the games I charted for him, and he does a better job of that from what I have seen of both of them. Jones just isn't targeted by Darnold much, even when he likely should have. For Jones I only charted 4 games, he has 3.75 positive routes per game in those, while Guice was only running one positive route per game from the 10 games charted. I would definitely give Jones an edge there.

That said Charles Sims and Quizz Rodgers are similarly good COP receiving RB to Chris Thompson and there is a pass catching RB for every one of these rookie RB to compete with for those opportunities as a receiver except for Barkley and Penny.
Good stuff - thanks, Bia.

 
That said Charles Sims and Quizz Rodgers are similarly good COP receiving RB to Chris Thompson and there is a pass catching RB for every one of these rookie RB to compete with for those opportunities as a receiver except for Barkley and Penny.
Seatlle does have McKissic and Prosise as excellent pass catchers alongside Penny, although it seems like Carroll would like to ride with one guy.

 
Seatlle does have McKissic and Prosise as excellent pass catchers alongside Penny, although it seems like Carroll would like to ride with one guy.
Yeah I only saw one game of McKissic but I did like what I saw from him. I have never like Prosise much, but thats just my opinion.

Facts are that none of the Seattle RB have caught as many passes as Sims, Thompson, RIddick, Duke Johnson, James White. McKissic did have 34 receptions in 13 games last season which is similar to the receptions that Booker has had.

So maybe Freeman and Penny have lesser threats to opportunities than Guice, Jones, Chubb, Michel have. A slightly lower tier of COP receiving RB to split with.

The Giants have Shane Vereen but Barkley so good as a receiver I don't see him as any threat to Barkleys opportunities there.

 
Yeah I only saw one game of McKissic but I did like what I saw from him. I have never like Prosise much, but thats just my opinion.

Facts are that none of the Seattle RB have caught as many passes as Sims, Thompson, RIddick, Duke Johnson, James White. McKissic did have 34 receptions in 13 games last season which is similar to the receptions that Booker has had.

So maybe Freeman and Penny have lesser threats to opportunities than Guice, Jones, Chubb, Michel have. A slightly lower tier of COP receiving RB to split with.

The Giants have Shane Vereen but Barkley so good as a receiver I don't see him as any threat to Barkleys opportunities there.
Barkley certainly seems to be the outlier right now, and understandably so. Injury is probably the only obstacle to a 350 touch season.

For the others, situations will likely clear up once we get into camp. It's nice to see so many guys land in potentially good situations though.

 
That said Charles Sims and Quizz Rodgers are similarly good COP receiving RB to Chris Thompson and there is a pass catching RB for every one of these rookie RB to compete with for those opportunities as a receiver except for Barkley and Penny.
Sims got no interest in FA and signed a one year deal on Draft day for an undisclosed amt. He did catch 35 passes last year, but PFF rated Sims very poorly for his production. I don't think he's anything more than depth this year or insurance in case RoJo struggles in the passing game. Quiz only caught 9 passes last year, basically got demoted to special teams and lost his job to Barber, and has no dead or guaranteed money left on his deal. It's possible neither of these two make it out of training camp to the final roster (I imagine 1 will for depth unless the Bucs unearth a gem UDFA.) The only major barrier to RoJo catching passes will be himself.

In Guice's case, Thompson has the injury obviously but has two more years on a cheap extension signed last year. He's a little older and will be 29 when his current contract runs out. PFF rated him one of the best receiving RB's in the league when he went out with the broken leg, basically only behind Kamara and Duke Johnson.

 
Sims got no interest in FA and signed a one year deal on Draft day for an undisclosed amt. He did catch 35 passes last year, but PFF rated Sims very poorly for his production. I don't think he's anything more than depth this year or insurance in case RoJo struggles in the passing game. Quiz only caught 9 passes last year, basically got demoted to special teams and lost his job to Barber, and has no dead or guaranteed money left on his deal. It's possible neither of these two make it out of training camp to the final roster (I imagine 1 will for depth unless the Bucs unearth a gem UDFA.) The only major barrier to RoJo catching passes will be himself.

In Guice's case, Thompson has the injury obviously but has two more years on a cheap extension signed last year. He's a little older and will be 29 when his current contract runs out. PFF rated him one of the best receiving RB's in the league when he went out with the broken leg, basically only behind Kamara and Duke Johnson.
Sims definitely hasn't been as good as a receiver since 2015. So maybe I am giving him too much credit for what he did then, which is very similar numbers to what Thompson did last season and the last 3 seasons.

The Bucs have a lot of offensive weapons while last season Washington was missing most of their best ones leading to them using Thompson more until he got injured.

But yeah I agree with you that Sims seems less likely to be involved than Thompson.

 
I see Guice/Thompson being a Gordon/Woodhead type situation. Guice will not be given the receiving work unless there is an injury but will prove himself capable when an injury happens, this year or next, and be a 3 down back there forward

 
I see Guice/Thompson being a Gordon/Woodhead type situation. Guice will not be given the receiving work unless there is an injury but will prove himself capable when an injury happens, this year or next, and be a 3 down back there forward
There’s no telling who gets injured when. Thompson started out on a tear last year. He’s been a reliable receiver. Perine was high on a lot of lists last year, and the oline is healthy so maybe he earns some work. It’s pretty bullish on guice to assume he will run away with a bell cow role. I see a mixon/hill/gio type situation, and it could certainly favor guice in the future, Perine and Thompson aren’t going anywhere. Maybe you’re that confident in your valuation, but a lot of people liked Perine last year too. 

 
There’s no telling who gets injured when. Thompson started out on a tear last year. He’s been a reliable receiver. Perine was high on a lot of lists last year, and the oline is healthy so maybe he earns some work. It’s pretty bullish on guice to assume he will run away with a bell cow role. I see a mixon/hill/gio type situation, and it could certainly favor guice in the future, Perine and Thompson aren’t going anywhere. Maybe you’re that confident in your valuation, but a lot of people liked Perine last year too. 
Fantasy people were high on Perine based on what looked like a clear path to a heavy workload, not necessarily his talent. He looked pretty slow and plodding last season so if Guice is who analysts and observers think he is he should have no trouble blowing past Perine and Kelley. I do expect Thompson to keep his passing down role when healthy though, He's a pretty dynamic back in an offense missing game-breaker types.

 
Guice was taken #2 RB off the board in a local draft after Barkley

The guy who took him is a savvy guy, thinks Guice is a all that and more. We'll see

 
Redskins coach Jay Gruden said second-round RB Derrius Guice is "more of a first-, second-down banger."

Gruden added he thinks Guice has good enough hands, but his role will be on early downs as a rookie. "Really, our role for him is quite easy to see," Gruden said. "It’s first, second down." The comments are not surprising considering Guice was not routinely used as a receiver in college and Chris Thompson is one of the best passing-down backs in the league, but they are still disappointing. Without real usage in the passing game, Guice's fantasy value will be somewhat capped as a rookie.

Source: ESPN

May 10 - 10:05 AM
 
Fantasy people were high on Perine based on what looked like a clear path to a heavy workload, not necessarily his talent. He looked pretty slow and plodding last season so if Guice is who analysts and observers think he is he should have no trouble blowing past Perine and Kelley. I do expect Thompson to keep his passing down role when healthy though, He's a pretty dynamic back in an offense missing game-breaker types.
This is how I felt about Perrine last year. I personally stayed away because his value was based almost solely on situation, not talent. Now Guice is coming in to the same situation (a 2 down place holder starter and a proven pass catcher on the roster) except Guice is vastly more talented that Perine. Draft capital alone tells us what the team thought of Guice vs Perine and we saw Perine underwhelm last year. Thompson will keep his role but he has a long history of being dinged up and his been on IR twice in his time in WAS. Guice will get a chance at some point this year to show if he has the 3 down skill set because Thompson will probably get knicked up at the least.

Perine is a non-factor. He will get SOME work, as the back ups always do, but Guice's talent and draft capital put him in the driver seat.

 
Kelley was better than Perrine last year. If the Skins didn't bring in a RB this year Kelley would be the starter, not Perrine. 

 
There’s no telling who gets injured when. Thompson started out on a tear last year. He’s been a reliable receiver. Perine was high on a lot of lists last year, and the oline is healthy so maybe he earns some work. It’s pretty bullish on guice to assume he will run away with a bell cow role. I see a mixon/hill/gio type situation, and it could certainly favor guice in the future, Perine and Thompson aren’t going anywhere. Maybe you’re that confident in your valuation, but a lot of people liked Perine last year too. 
Lol Perine isn’t in the same galaxy as Guice as far as talent 

 
Fantasy people were high on Perine based on what looked like a clear path to a heavy workload, not necessarily his talent. He looked pretty slow and plodding last season so if Guice is who analysts and observers think he is he should have no trouble blowing past Perine and Kelley. I do expect Thompson to keep his passing down role when healthy though, He's a pretty dynamic back in an offense missing game-breaker types.
Perine looked great if you watched 2014 games of his, but did not look nearly as quick in 2015 or 2016 games. I speculated from this that an injury or something had reduced his speed and burst compared to 2014. I was open to the possibility that this level of talent might come back, but I wasn't counting on it.

It didn't.

Perine still may have put up better numbers just from the situation if Washingtons offensive line stayed healthy. Or Kelly may have kept him on the bench all year if he was healthy. Perine never really won the job from Kelly, he just got it by default with Kelly and then Thompson being injured. Thompson did amazingly well early on in the season being forced into a larger role with Kelly hurt and Perine not being good enough. IIRC he was a top 5 RB for fantasy in those early weeks before he got injured. (Looked it up he was 5th overall in week 4 PPR scoring).

Lesson learned, don't put too much stock in how a player looks 3 years ago in college. I applied this to Nick Chubb and did not chart any pre injury games for him.

 
And what did you think of Chubb post-injury?
He is very good. Powerful runner with good speed and vision.

Most of his games did not grade out quite as high as some of the other RB in the first 10 games that I charted in terms of upside. Part of this I think was due to him splitting time with Michel, so he wasn't getting as much opportunity as some of the other top RB. His highest total score was 51 with two other games of 48 and one of 47 while other RB such as Guice had 3 games with a total score above 60 and his best game a score of 105. Ronald Jones I only charted 4 games for but he had two 64 score games. Sony Michels best game was a total score of 70 so higher than anything I had for Chubb at that point. So this had me questioning Chubbs upside somewhat.

I was kind of down on him because of this, but then I found his game against North Carolina and this game graded out as 79 total points. I just needed a game where he had more touches than I wasn't getting from the games he was splitting with Michel.

Chubb still had some poor games in my charting as well. I tossed out his worst game but I still have his game against Notre Dame where he only had 17 total points, the game against Tennessee he only had 24 total points. There were some bad games.

Traits Chubb is stong in are vision, burst, power, footwork. He is certainly fast enough but he didn't win with speed very often in my charting (not as often as some of the other RB) he doesn't make defenders miss very often although he does sometimes. He could run with better pad level than he does which would make his power even more effective. He wasn't used as a receiver much at all in these 10 games that I kept in the sample or the games I threw out. I have him with 8 positive routes run and only one point for hands (in the Notre Dame game), most of the other RB are doing a bit more than that as receivers. For example I have Guice with 10 positive routes run and 9 for hands out of 10 games. Still not much but every point adds up and he had a little more as a receiver than Chubb did.

I do intend to chart some of his pre injury games and see what kind of difference that might be, but I haven't yet as I did not want to include those games in the current sample. I have watched games of Chubb from before that, I just didn't chart them. He seems more explosive in the 2014 games than the 2016 or 2017 games. I'm not sure how much better those games might chart relative to the more recent games yet, but better. I am not sure that Chubb is ever coming back.

I think some people who are much higher on Chubb than I am, that the reason for that is they are thinking about pre injury Chubb rather than 2016 or 2017.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rich Tandler‏Verified account @TandlerNBCS

FollowFollow @TandlerNBCS

Three notes from rookie camp: Guice is a hustler, first in line for every drill, Gruden said he was first one with playbook open in the meeting room and a ball of fire. If he’s at all productive he will be a big-time fan favorite. 1/3

12:22 PM - 11 May 2018

 
Rich Tandler‏Verified account @TandlerNBCS

FollowFollow @TandlerNBCS

Three notes from rookie camp: Guice is a hustler, first in line for every drill, Gruden said he was first one with playbook open in the meeting room and a ball of fire. If he’s at all productive he will be a big-time fan favorite. 1/3

12:22 PM - 11 May 2018
“Character issues” look like they are holding him back...

I know it’s just the first day but I’m still on record as saying that whole draft fall debacle was retaliatory by the nfl execs he blew the whistle on

 
Between this stuff with Guice and the high class professionalism that Mayfield is showing in Cleveland, it’s almost like every time the NFL think tank and media looks closely at the “character” of a player, they have no f’in clue what they are talking about. They should probably just limit character issues to be in reference to actual criminal or rule breaking activity from now...

 
Between this stuff with Guice and the high class professionalism that Mayfield is showing in Cleveland, it’s almost like every time the NFL think tank and media looks closely at the “character” of a player, they have no f’in clue what they are talking about. They should probably just limit character issues to be in reference to actual criminal or rule breaking activity from now...
We can wish. That would deprive them of a lot of their content however.

 
Curious what about Guice makes people have him as the 2nd or 3rd RB off the board in rookie drafts? 
To be honest, much of my love for him comes from predraft analysis done by the FF community. I watch very little college ball and am no scout by any means. He played at a school that has produced NFL caliber players and elite caliber ones at that. When reading about him vs other high level RB prospects, it’s clear that he played in a place where they were run first and run often, thus producing a predictable game plan where he still succeeded. He played well 2 years ago while Fournette was around and injured and was dinged up himself last year while still playing well. All these things are extremely appealing. I don’t buy into his draft slide. His “off field issues” were never revealed to be anything but vague and a lot of us see it as nothing but smoke meant to hurt him. His landing spot is good, he was clearly drafted for 1st and 2nd down but Thompson is injury prone and Guice could see 3rd down work some day, he has neither proven nor disproven his ability there. Washington’s o line is underrated due to the massive amount of injuries they had last year. Basically, the things that people are lowering him for post draft are either non issues to me or problems of perception in my view. When they were pre-draft and judging based on talent alone, they had him #2. I am sticking with that.

To contrast him with a someone like Penny, who produced at a historic level on a team that also always produces strong RB numbers and has a predictable game plan, it comes down to history. San Diego isn’t sending guys to the NFL with insane production who produce at the next level. LSU is. Additionally, Seattle was kind of a dumpster fire last year and , besides the head coach and QB, is lacking a lot of continuity in the offense. I started out very down on Penny because he played in a system that made him look god like in a way that it has made other JAGs look just as good but I have slowly softened. I think he has a higher bust rate than Guice due to program history and landing spot but like most guys transitioning to the NFL, you can’t knock them too hard for gaudy numbers even if it is system related because they are NFL caliber players playing against guys who probably won’t sniff a practice squad, they are supposed to dominate them and you shouldn’t hold the competition against them as long as they do.

So to summarize, I tend to start out by submitting to those who do this for a living as my base of analysis then apply some of my own research. I’m personally not the type of FF player who is going to pull for Jordan Howard to be the second leading rookie rusher in 2016 when there is a named starter in front of him and draft capital spent was low just based on a talent assessment. But I did accurately predict the value of a guy like Kupp last year based on his college dominance, draft capital and the nuances of his situation. Guice could be the leading rusher in the NFL this coming year, his situation is good, his talent is good and despite the slide, he still had second round capital spent on him. Barring that, he is on a team that has that has been a revolving door at RB for a few years and they will be patient with him as he is the highest investment at the position that they have had for a while. I see him as a starter for years to come

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top