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reel_smooth

Fan Duel Conference Championship weekend

47 posts in this topic

Don't know how many will take one more crack at the NFL, but, I'll get a thread started just in case. Had a little success this past weekend so I'll give it one more go.

Early observations - huge drop-off in the RB pricing. Bell at 9500, Freeman at 8000, D. Lewis at 7000, everybody else below that. QB - Rodgers & Ryan jump up big; Rodgers at 9600, Ryan 9200. Also, the early lines from Vegas list the O/U on the NFC game at 60!!! O/U on the AFC game is 50.5, nothing to sneeze at either. Really need to keep an eye on the weather for NE.

I think the plan is to go all GPP's again & focus on the NFC game [yeah, I know - thank you Captain Obvious] and try to figure out which AFC-game player will be low-owned and go off. 

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1 hour ago, reel_smooth said:

Don't know how many will take one more crack at the NFL, but, I'll get a thread started just in case. Had a little success this past weekend so I'll give it one more go.

Early observations - huge drop-off in the RB pricing. Bell at 9500, Freeman at 8000, D. Lewis at 7000, everybody else below that. QB - Rodgers & Ryan jump up big; Rodgers at 9600, Ryan 9200. Also, the early lines from Vegas list the O/U on the NFC game at 60!!! O/U on the AFC game is 50.5, nothing to sneeze at either. Really need to keep an eye on the weather for NE.

I think the plan is to go all GPP's again & focus on the NFC game [yeah, I know - thank you Captain Obvious] and try to figure out which AFC-game player will be low-owned and go off. 

But... Wouldn't game theory be the opposite of that?  I was thinking Brady and his non-Edelman WRs are cheap. What about a NE/Pitt game stack - something like Brady/Hogan/Mitchell/Bell/Brown and then some "other" guys from the Atl/GB game. 

One I just threw together that was staring at is:  Brady - Bell/Freeman/ - Brown/any2 non-Edelman NE Wrs - Cook - Crosby - Atl.    If you did something like this you could rotate in WRs and PKs around a core like that.  Go Hogan/Mitchell, Hogan/Floyd, etc..  or take a stab with Bennett and a WR and use your WR3 on Cobb or Sanu instead.  (of course all this depends on the health of the NE receiving options.  Thought I read yesterday they were optimistic about Mitchell being back.

Of course I:  1.  am a Pats fan, and 2:  am only doing $1 entries. 

I will have an NFCCG LU too, but I just figured with smaller slates you are going to have to nail one or two of the "other" guys and I think NE have the most of those on the cheap and have the highest likelihood off grabbing a TD or 2.    White, Lewis, Hogan, Floyd, Mitchell, Bennett, Amendola - any of these guys could get theirs, and don't forget that Blount is priced down and Lewis priced up for the game too. 

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In theory, yes, I would agree with that ........... IF we're talking a normal-sized slate. With just two games, my thought was better to try and pay up, as much as possible, for the chalky-type guys from what should be the higher-scoring game and try to hit a home run with one or two low-priced guys from the other game because it might be harder to make up the point difference of fading the bigger names. Not saying I won't have some exposure to NE/PIT - just a much lower percentage ........ especially if the weather turns out to be crappy. Guys like Hogan & White will probably see a line-up or two. Heck, I might even get real brave and toss Matt Lengel in for one of them. :-) 

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1 hour ago, reel_smooth said:

In theory, yes, I would agree with that ........... IF we're talking a normal-sized slate. With just two games, my thought was better to try and pay up, as much as possible, for the chalky-type guys from what should be the higher-scoring game and try to hit a home run with one or two low-priced guys from the other game because it might be harder to make up the point difference of fading the bigger names. Not saying I won't have some exposure to NE/PIT - just a much lower percentage ........ especially if the weather turns out to be crappy. Guys like Hogan & White will probably see a line-up or two. Heck, I might even get real brave and toss Matt Lengel in for one of them. :-) 

This is what makes this stuff so interesting to me (and also makes me second guess myself into ####ty LUs a lot). 

I agree on the bolded, but I also assume that if people go heavy on the NFC guys, that might mean fading Bell and Brown, and those are two guys who could get the most points.  Choices have to be made, unless we can jam in Bell/Brown/Julio + Nelson or Adams somehow.   (off now to see what that looks like...)

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Haven't looked much at the slate but it seems like pricing is tight and surely there are big gaps between tiers.  Should be able to work a few different angles for a base and then swap around some K and D.  I was planning on entering only around $10, but that barely wets the whistle.  I'm already in 4 contests for $6...not gonna cut it.

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Running with 8 LU's for $16. Want to hang on to the rest since I'm going to be coming out on top for the season regardless. Six of them heavy on ATL/GB with a very small smattering of NE/PIT. But just in case, got one that's NE-based starting w/ Brady & one PIT-based starting w/ Roethlisberger.

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10 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Running with 8 LU's for $16. Want to hang on to the rest since I'm going to be coming out on top for the season regardless. Six of them heavy on ATL/GB with a very small smattering of NE/PIT. But just in case, got one that's NE-based starting w/ Brady & one PIT-based starting w/ Roethlisberger.

I am curious how you or anybody else divide out their entries.  You have them all in bigger gpps, in the same multi-entry one, 100 man, etc..?

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Rolling with this for a cash line-up. Feels weird to fade Green Bay but really liking this outside of TE and D.

Brady, Bell, Coleman, Jones, Brown, Hogan, Hooper, Gostkowski, Green Bay

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am curious how you or anybody else divide out their entries.  You have them all in bigger gpps, in the same multi-entry one, 100 man, etc..?

Personally I only play in SE gpp when possible. I'm sure the pros have multiple accounts and are still getting in multiple lineups but it still has to be better odds.

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10 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Personally I only play in SE gpp when possible. I'm sure the pros have multiple accounts and are still getting in multiple lineups but it still has to be better odds.

Yeah, I probably should go with this more.   I always get suckered in to the big payouts though, but what are the odds I get that and like you said you are probably battling people who might just computer generate 50 LUs and put them in. 

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I tend to spread it out and don't do any big $$ GPP's. Mostly SE's and low-dollar ones. Although, I do seem to do ok on the low-dollar mini's that limit the number of entries.

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Pulled out my cash but still have enough FD points for the $1 GPP:

Ryan

Freeman, Ty

Edelman, Cobb, [Sanu/Gabriel/Hogan]

Cook, [Bryant/Gostk.], Pats

 

Seems like Cobb and Cook will be the beneficiaries of GB WR injuries.  However I haven't seen anything about Jeff Janis -- when pressed into service last year in the playoffs due to WR injuries, he had a huge 7-145-2 game.  What am I missing?  

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7 hours ago, karmarooster said:

I haven't seen anything about Jeff Janis -- when pressed into service last year in the playoffs due to WR injuries, he had a huge 7-145-2 game.  What am I missing?  

He missed Wednesday's practice with a quadriceps problem. Maybe it's that.

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So there is a possibility that Adams, Nelson, and Janis are a no-go on Sunday?  

Assuming people still have the boner for Rodgers, Cobb and Cook will be off the charts owned.  I am not sure what to do with that info. 

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

So there is a possibility that Adams, Nelson, and Janis are a no-go on Sunday?  

Assuming people still have the boner for Rodgers, Cobb and Cook will be off the charts owned.  I am not sure what to do with that info. 

Play R Rogers and Montgomery in that situation

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This should not get its own thread, however I am not sure where to put it, so I will just go...

Last weekend I won a free entry into the $300 Monster for this weekend on FanDuel.  They sent me an email stating I will get my ticket, but it is now Friday and I do not have it...is that normal?

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1 minute ago, Sweet Love said:

This should not get its own thread, however I am not sure where to put it, so I will just go...

Last weekend I won a free entry into the $300 Monster for this weekend on FanDuel.  They sent me an email stating I will get my ticket, but it is now Friday and I do not have it...is that normal?

Have you checked you FD account's "upcoming"?  Usually they just place a default LU there that you need to change

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1 minute ago, Megla said:

Have you checked you FD account's "upcoming"?  Usually they just place a default LU there that you need to change

It's odd...nothing in "upcoming", except for another contest I entered.  They sent me a link (which I can't figure out how to get to without the link) and the tab is called "My Tickets", but my entry is in the "Pending" section not the "Active"...so I can't enter my lineup yet (which I think is odd for it to be this long).

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1 minute ago, Sweet Love said:

It's odd...nothing in "upcoming", except for another contest I entered.  They sent me a link (which I can't figure out how to get to without the link) and the tab is called "My Tickets", but my entry is in the "Pending" section not the "Active"...so I can't enter my lineup yet (which I think is odd for it to be this long).

I'd just email them, they are quick to respond, usually in less than 30 minutes

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22 minutes ago, Megla said:

I'd just email them, they are quick to respond, usually in less than 30 minutes

Thanks...they were quick.  They said it would be editable on the day of the game...that seems very last minute to me.

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1 minute ago, Sweet Love said:

Thanks...they were quick.  They said it would be editable on the day of the game...that seems very last minute to me.

Is it a NFL ticket?

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11 hours ago, Megla said:

Play R Rogers and Montgomery in that situation

I kind of like this on GPP...I have a lineup I like, but could only get R Rodgers at TE if I went with it.  I did well last weekend on GPPs, but only because I had Boswell who was 10% owned (basically the other three kickers were an avg of 30% owned).  I don't expect another kicker to get 21 points, however, the key may be picking the least owned kicker and hoping he puts up better points than the others...just hard to get diversification on RBs, Qbs, and TEs this week.

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3 minutes ago, Megla said:

Is it a NFL ticket?

Yeah...I just thought it would drop earlier...and if there was a glitch, did not want to have to try connecting with their customer service on Sun Morning.

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8 minutes ago, Sweet Love said:

I kind of like this on GPP...I have a lineup I like, but could only get R Rodgers at TE if I went with it.  I did well last weekend on GPPs, but only because I had Boswell who was 10% owned (basically the other three kickers were an avg of 30% owned).  I don't expect another kicker to get 21 points, however, the key may be picking the least owned kicker and hoping he puts up better points than the others...just hard to get diversification on RBs, Qbs, and TEs this week.

MB is a must start this week IMHO, it's a 61 total and it's indoors, I'll look for contrarian plays elsewhere

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1 hour ago, Megla said:

MB is a must start this week IMHO, it's a 61 total and it's indoors, I'll look for contrarian plays elsewhere

You talking gpp or cash?

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33 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

You talking gpp or cash?

both

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Got 20 GPP LUs that I will be entering into small $ large entry GPPs but I also have 15 or so single entry tournys that range from $5-$25 and these are the LUs I'm looking for opinions on.

#1 Ryan/Bell/Coleman/AB/Hogan/Eli/Cook/MB/NE

#2 Rogers/Bell/Coleman/AB/Hogan/EliCook/MB/NE

#3 Brady/Bell/White/Edle/AB/Hogan/Cook/MB/Pitt

#4 Ben/Bell/Cole/AB/Cobb/Hogan/Cook/MB/NE

 

Also have super stacks from both games

Rogers/Bell/Ty/Cobb/JJ/Eli/Hooper/MB/ATL

Ryan/Colem/Ty/JJ/Cobb/AB/Hoop/Gost/NE- I really like this one

Ben/Bell/Cole/AB/Edle/Hogan/Jessy/Gost/NE

Brady/Bell/Cole/Edle/AB/Eli/Benn/MB/Pitt

Yea yea I know, where's Freeman, I have in many of the other LU that will be in the lower # GPPs

 

Thoughts??

Edited by Megla

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11 minutes ago, Megla said:

both

I have just never liked the guy, so maybe I need to look past that.  Has upside for sure as we saw in Chicago and Dallas, but I think he only got more than 10pts 3 times in the last 1/2 of the season.  Add to that a road dog, and is that a guy for cash?  (not playing cash, just talking here). 

I can't get away from Blount in gpps and usually have him with an Atlanta Rb.  Only going to do a couple LUs this week too. 

 

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

.  Add to that a road dog, and is that a guy for cash? 

 

??????

ATL is at home in a dome

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2 minutes ago, Megla said:

??????

ATL is at home in a dome

:lol:

I have no ####in' clue what I was talking about.  Somehow I was still on your suggestion of Rodgers and Montgomery from a few posts up, and was talking about T-Mont still.  Carry on...

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Thoughts for this Sunday:

  • I'm interested in all the QBs, My 15 tickets have all four in various iterations.
  • Willing to spend the money on Bell on a few teams.
  • Not willing to touch Blount in a high scoring game.
  • Julio Jones worth every penny and I will own several shares.
  • Eli Rogers a nice value.
  • Julian Edelman should get a lot of targets.
  • Not touching Martellus Bennett.
  • Lots of Jesse James shares this week.
  • I own plenty of Jared Cook, but he's going to be highly owned.
  • For defense, the only one that's interesting to me is Pittsburgh. But they all stink this week.

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1 hour ago, Megla said:

Got 20 GPP LUs that I will be entering into small $ large entry GPPs but I also have 15 or so single entry tournys that range from $5-$25 and these are the LUs I'm looking for opinions on.

#1 Ryan/Bell/Coleman/AB/Hogan/Eli/Cook/MB/NE

#2 Rogers/Bell/Coleman/AB/Hogan/EliCook/MB/NE

#3 Brady/Bell/White/Edle/AB/Hogan/Cook/MB/Pitt

#4 Ben/Bell/Cole/AB/Cobb/Hogan/Cook/MB/NE

 

Also have super stacks from both games

Rogers/Bell/Ty/Cobb/JJ/Eli/Hooper/MB/ATL

Ryan/Colem/Ty/JJ/Cobb/AB/Hoop/Gost/NE- I really like this one

Ben/Bell/Cole/AB/Edle/Hogan/Jessy/Gost/NE

Brady/Bell/Cole/Edle/AB/Eli/Benn/MB/Pitt

Yea yea I know, where's Freeman, I have in many of the other LU that will be in the lower # GPPs

 

Thoughts??

I have the same lineup as group 2 #2 except I have crosby and Pitt D.

my Brady lineup is  brady/ty/coleman/AB/edelman/cobb/cook/gost/pack

havent done my rogers or ben lineups yet

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

Thoughts for this Sunday:

  • I'm interested in all the QBs, My 15 tickets have all four in various iterations.
  • Willing to spend the money on Bell on a few teams.
  • Not willing to touch Blount in a high scoring game.
  • Julio Jones worth every penny and I will own several shares.
  • Eli Rogers a nice value.
  • Julian Edelman should get a lot of targets.
  • Not touching Martellus Bennett.
  • Lots of Jesse James shares this week.
  • I own plenty of Jared Cook, but he's going to be highly owned.
  • For defense, the only one that's interesting to me is Pittsburgh. But they all stink this week.

Love that there is only 2 games, and still varying opinions on where to go!

I am still on Blount for a few reasons:  I think he will be low owned after Lewis got his last week, the Pats are now favored by 6, only David Johnson scored more TDs than Blount this year, and he was sick and missing practices last week.  IMO he is one of the best gpp plays in these games. 

Rogers is a good value, but looking at things and listening to Silva on the podcasts he pointed out that NE is decent in the slot and Logan Ryan usually does a good job with his man.  That is getting me thinking about James a lot this week like you pointed out. 

I will try Bennett for a couple.  If there has been one place to target vs. Pitts it has been through the TE position.  Gronk has had his way with them in the past, but Bennett just hasn't been himself and good another hit to the legs last week. 

I am not interested in Ben at all, but I will have a little bit of Brown/Bell stacks. 

I will have a bit of Julio, but he did come up gimpy yet again on that foot last game.  I know they are saying all systems go for him, but there is a part of me that says there is a chance he is hobbled still  or if Atl gets up on the Packers big they ease off on his targets a bit.  Even if they start, the same thing goes for the GB WRs.  Makes me nervous when they say that they wouldn't play if it was regular season.  Right now I think I am heavier on the the studs from the NE/Pitts game (Brady, Blount/Lewis, Edelman, Brown/Bell), the Atl RBs, and then sprinkling in the cheap options from Atl and GB to get a piece of that game. 

I will be mostly on Atl and NE D this week.  I think the home teams get it done and meet in the SB.  Of the teams left, I think it's GB that gives up the most points to Ds, but it's not by a big margin. 

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12 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Love that there is only 2 games, and still varying opinions on where to go!

I am still on Blount for a few reasons:  I think he will be low owned after Lewis got his last week, the Pats are now favored by 6, only David Johnson scored more TDs than Blount this year, and he was sick and missing practices last week.  IMO he is one of the best gpp plays in these games. 

Rogers is a good value, but looking at things and listening to Silva on the podcasts he pointed out that NE is decent in the slot and Logan Ryan usually does a good job with his man.  That is getting me thinking about James a lot this week like you pointed out. 

I will try Bennett for a couple.  If there has been one place to target vs. Pitts it has been through the TE position.  Gronk has had his way with them in the past, but Bennett just hasn't been himself and good another hit to the legs last week. 

I am not interested in Ben at all, but I will have a little bit of Brown/Bell stacks. 

I will have a bit of Julio, but he did come up gimpy yet again on that foot last game.  I know they are saying all systems go for him, but there is a part of me that says there is a chance he is hobbled still  or if Atl gets up on the Packers big they ease off on his targets a bit.  Even if they start, the same thing goes for the GB WRs.  Makes me nervous when they say that they wouldn't play if it was regular season.  Right now I think I am heavier on the the studs from the NE/Pitts game (Brady, Blount/Lewis, Edelman, Brown/Bell), the Atl RBs, and then sprinkling in the cheap options from Atl and GB to get a piece of that game. 

I will be mostly on Atl and NE D this week.  I think the home teams get it done and meet in the SB.  Of the teams left, I think it's GB that gives up the most points to Ds, but it's not by a big margin. 

I can't argue against any of this.

  • My thinking on Julio is a gimpy Julio is still good enough to torch that decimated GB secondary.
  • The argument for Blount, and it's a sound one, is even in a high-scoring game, Blount could still have two or three goalline opportunities.
  • My thinking on Eli Rogers is that NE swings a lot of coverage towards Antonio Brown and that frees up Rogers in single man coverage. 
  • I think Ben is going to light it up. Nothing about that NE secondary scares me.
  • I loved Martellus pre-season, but that guy must have been hurt most of the year to perform this poorly.
  • I can see the argument for either GB or ATL defense. Not that they will stop anyone, but with all that passing I bet one of those Ds gets a pick 6.

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Will mix it up more on DK, but only have 4 entries in on FD with Ryan and Brady as my Qbs.  One thing that I have learned this year is that it is no fun cheering for your team, but having guys from the other side on your DFS roster you need to do well to win some money, so I kept it to $5 and am basically just betting on the Pats and kept exposure to Pitts players low.  I figured that is just some bad karma there. 

My $1 dart, "Pitts does nothing, I think Atl will crush" entry:

Brady - Freeman/Coleman - Julio/Edelman/Mitchell - Cook - Crosby - NE

 

 

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According to RW, Nelson/Allison/Adams will all be active today for the game.  Now it's up to everybody to try to figure out how effective they will be and how many snaps they will get. 

Also, it looks like TB will have all 3 of Mitchell, Hogan, and Bennett to throw to as well. 

Good Luck today everybody!!

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One last Sunday of NFL DFS

Got around $400 worth of GPPs and 100 player leagues on these

Rogers, Bell, Coleman,AB,Hogan,Eli,Cook,MB,NE-127.08

Brady, Freeman, Lewis, AB,Edleman, Cobb, Hooper, MB, NE-107.06

Ben, Bell, Coleman, AB, Cobb, Hogan, Cook, MB, NE-121.66

Ryan, Freeman,Montg,Julio,Gabriel, Hogan, Cook,Gostk,NE-166.48

Good luck to all

 

Edited by Megla

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Need a huge game from Jordy. 3.4 and 4.7% owned in 2 gpps I'm using him.

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Well, I still stink on FD.  $6 in, $2.50 out. 

Managed to win $70 on DK though mostly betting on my team.  Best LU got $60 on a $3 entry:

Brady - Freeman/Coleman - Julio/Edelman/Hogan - Cook - James - Atl

 

More important is NE going to another SB, but I will take that icing on the cake to close out the year.

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