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ChicagoArch

Old Rookie Drafts

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Strange request. Anyone in a superflex, full-idp dynasty league that's been around for a few years. I'd love to look at a few years of rookie drafts to mine for data. Obviously willing to share whatever insights a spreadsheet shows me.

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3 hours ago, ChicagoArch said:

Strange request. Anyone in a superflex, full-idp dynasty league that's been around for a few years. I'd love to look at a few years of rookie drafts to mine for data. Obviously willing to share whatever insights a spreadsheet shows me.

Our league has been around since 2005.  We are a salary cap league that has a restricted free agent auction prior to the rookie/FA draft.  We keep 15 players (or $250 in salary) from year to year and start QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1SuperFlex/K/Punter/2DL/2LB/2DB/ 1 IDP Flex.

 

Our draft is 25 rounds.  Let me know if you are interested and if so what you need

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Im in a few leagues with 40-45players, full IDP start 3/4 DL, 3/4 L, 4 DB. Roookie drafts 5-7 rounds each.

One of them also drafts before the NFL draft which might throw your research off a little!

Let me know how I can help.

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Gally, I'm aiming for rookie only drafts if possible. That would help the most people (and myself, selfishly).

Scothawk, can you please send a link to the last couple rookie drafts? Maybe 5 years or so. However is easiest for you. One league would be a start but if you've got a couple, it could potentially even out the results more. I would love the pre-draft rookie draft, but it would be impossible to convince most of the people in my leagues to do that, so we can probably skip that one.

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Fusion
http://www67.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/23280

ConFusion
http://www67.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/18400

Any Time Any Place
http://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/35128

Any Other Time Any Other Place
http://www58.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/44780

Dynasty Warz
http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/47374

Dynasty Warz II
http://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/10792

Dynasty Warz III
http://www62.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/48401

None are Superflex, but all are full IDP with multiple years of draft history rookie only.  Most of these league are spawns of each other so will have very similar rules and requirements.

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Johnny U league - link to drafts for 2016 and 2015

http://www58.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=37617&O=17

http://www58.myfantasyleague.com/2015/options?L=36937&O=17

This is the league where we draft before the NFL draft. We also have  a 3 round waiver (reverse of draft order) after the NFL draft is completed - Ive picked up a couple of gems during this period.

Lots of different lineups options between 1-3 RB, WR and TE. On Def we start the standard 3-4-4.

League has at least one opening if you are interested. In the past new teams have rebuilt very fast and most have competed within one draft cycle. $7 entry fee.

Will post some other leagues later.

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If Zealots is a format that fits, there's a crapload of drafts to look at there.  3 DB, 3 LB, 3 DL, 53-man rosters.  There are something like 60 leagues with the same rules, and it's been around for over 10 years, so you could do a lot of mining in there.

Here's 2016 stuff: http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_board.htm

I used to run a spreadsheet every year that collected all of the Z drafts, but it's been a looong time since I did that.  My macro skillz are weak - the file got corrupted somehow and I never had the energy to build it from scratch again.

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I need a little more help everyone. I've put 10 years of the Dynasty Wars drafts into a spreadsheet. I'm going to look at what positions get drafted in each round. That's easy. But then I also want to judge which picks are successful so I can put a percentage on picks. 60% chance of success drafting an LB in the 4th round, 4% chance of success drafting a WR in the 7th round, etc. The problem is, how do I determine success? It all seems very objective to me. Some people who have done similar checks in the past consider a top 24 season at their position in the first 3 years a success. But by that measure, T-Rich and RGIII would be considered successes. Someone taking T-Rich 1.01 or RGIII 1.04 wouldn't consider either of those guys a success. Johnny "$50 selfie" Football has scored more fantasy points than Jimmy Garoppolo, but Manziel was drafted to be a starter right away while Garoppolo was drafted to start next year not too mention the invested costs are greatly different. I would consider Garoppolo a more successful draft pick than Manziel and Garoppolo has only started 2 games to this point. It would also be nice to weight the rounds a little bit. T-Rich at 1.01 was unsuccessful, but getting his production from the 5th or 6th would be somewhat successful, better than someone who washed out of the league in a few years. Oh wait...

Does anyone have a good suggestion about how to determine the success of a draft pick? Or should I just be subjective?

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Subjective takes too much work.

I'd lean on someone else's work... perhaps PM Chase Stuart.  

If I had to do something from scratch, I'd use VBD from here:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00.htm#all_fantasy

I'm not sure what I'd do with it, though - VBD/year, maybe?  I'd probably try to find some cutoff players at each position and see what their stats look like.  Maybe percentage of seasons with any VBD is a better guide?  Total years with any VBD?

For example, Ryan Tannehill is an NFL success in that he's been a starter for five years... but he's a fantasy failure for the most part - if you're starting Tannehill, things have gone wrong for you.  Looking at his page, he has 13 VBD over five years.  Sam Bradford has been a starter for 6-7 years, but has no VBD.  Maybe somewhere around 3 VBD per year is a useful QB?  Dalton has 29 over 6 years, Alex Smith has no VBD over 11 years, Jay Cutler has 63 over 11 years...

Let's look at WRs.  Brian Hartline had 4 VBD over 7 years, Tavon Austin has 16 over 4 years, Kenny Britt has 20 over 8 years, Brandon LaFell has 13 over 7 years, Az-Zahim Hakim had no VBD over 9 years, Koren Robinson had 50 over 8 years, Roy Williams had 60 over 8 years, Marcus Robinson had 73 over 9 years (all in one year).  Maybe 3/year again?  Perhaps that works across all positions.

Poo, they don't have VBD listed for defensive players. 

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Once you are back far enough to have 3-5 years of fantasy results in hand, you could measure success using some form of "present value" calculation, where you accumulate incrementally smaller amounts of future years production and rank by total.  This makes a player who contributes reliably for many years more valuable than those who flash and burn out, and makes those about as valuable as the ones who become long-term contributors but not for several years.  (After all, if they take too long, many owners will have moved on,making them less valuable as draft picks). 

The trick would be choosing the right rate of depreciation.  You could probably baseline that by looking at some historical examples of players you can rank confidently (that's the part that would be subjective), and tweaking until you get a result that feels right.

I seem to recall Adam Harstad did some work on such time valued calculations, albeit targetted more at aging decline than at "value on draft day."  But it might be portable enough to apply...you could reach out to him and see if he'd share any spreadsheet algorithms.

 

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11 minutes ago, Arodin said:

This makes a player who contributes reliably for many years more valuable than those who flash and burn out,

I'm not sure you want to do that, though.  Drew Bennett won people leagues with his 70 VBD in 2004 (most in the last six games or so).  He never had any VFD in another season.  Meanwhile, Wayne Chrebet had 33, 31, and 3 VBD seasons, so the same amount of VBD over his career, but distributed differently.  I'm not sure one was more successful than the other.

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1 minute ago, Tick said:

I'm not sure you want to do that, though.  Drew Bennett won people leagues with his 70 VBD in 2004 (most in the last six games or so).  He never had any VFD in another season.  Meanwhile, Wayne Chrebet had 33, 31, and 3 VBD seasons, so the same amount of VBD over his career, but distributed differently.  I'm not sure one was more successful than the other.

Fair point.  I was applying my own preference biases as far as fantasy drafts, and the one you mention seems just as reasonable...I'm sure we'll each have our own flavor.

I'm trying to figure out a good way to tweak things to account for that.  Possibly a scaling factor based on the player's highest single season of output?  That would enhance the perceived value of a one-shot wonder over that of a reliable mid-tier starter, and also still favor longevity simply because the more seasons a steady producer plays, the more chances he has for that one big career year (cough...Matt Ryan...).

 

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1 minute ago, Arodin said:

Fair point.  I was applying my own preference biases as far as fantasy drafts, and the one you mention seems just as reasonable...I'm sure we'll each have our own flavor.

I'm trying to figure out a good way to tweak things to account for that.  Possibly a scaling factor based on the player's highest single season of output?  That would enhance the perceived value of a one-shot wonder over that of a reliable mid-tier starter, and also still favor longevity simply because the more seasons a steady producer plays, the more chances he has for that one big career year (cough...Matt Ryan...).

 

It might just be total VBD, with no accounting for how it's spread out over a career.

I'm not sure how to tag someone in a post.  @Chase Stuart - can you give some insight in how to decide whether a player was a successful fantasy player in their career?

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On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 10:02 PM, ChicagoArch said:

Strange request. Anyone in a superflex, full-idp dynasty league that's been around for a few years. I'd love to look at a few years of rookie drafts to mine for data. Obviously willing to share whatever insights a spreadsheet shows me.

2014 Auction

http://www76.myfantasyleague.com/2014/options?L=26388&O=102&SORT=AMOUNT

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On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 5:55 PM, Tick said:

I'm not sure you want to do that, though.  Drew Bennett won people leagues with his 70 VBD in 2004 (most in the last six games or so).  He never had any VFD in another season.  Meanwhile, Wayne Chrebet had 33, 31, and 3 VBD seasons, so the same amount of VBD over his career, but distributed differently.  I'm not sure one was more successful than the other.

But I think if you are trying to figure out value for drafting someone the flash in the pan guy isn't what you are looking for.  When evaluating draft pick value you are trying to see what rounds lead to meaningful players over years.  I wouldn't think you are looking for a free agent pick up from week 12 that blew up over the last four weeks for one particular year. 

 

For the purposes of draft evaluation I would believe that Chrebet would be of more "value" for draft purposes and Bennett would fall into an in-season evaluation type process because he was a 1 yr wonder based on optimal conditions for those 6 weeks.  That is valuable to know but when evaluating a rookie draft I don't think it has value.

 

I would consider success a player that finishes as a starter for a particular year as a success.  So a 12 team league with 3 WR starters if a WR finishes in the top 36 of WR that would be a successful year.  The more years fitting that criteria the more successful the player.  If you wanted to rank the success further you can break it down to WR1 years, WR2 years, WR3 years and non starting years.  Assign different weight for each category and then add up the total score.

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3 hours ago, Gally said:

I would consider success a player that finishes as a starter for a particular year as a success.  So a 12 team league with 3 WR starters if a WR finishes in the top 36 of WR that would be a successful year.  The more years fitting that criteria the more successful the player.  If you wanted to rank the success further you can break it down to WR1 years, WR2 years, WR3 years and non starting years.  Assign different weight for each category and then add up the total score.

But this raises the T-Rich/RGIII question and the Jimmy Garoppolo question again. T-Rich had a year as top 16 RB. But someone who drafted him at 1.01 wouldn't consider him a successful draft pick. Same with RGIII. On the other hand, the owner who drafted Jimmy Garoppolo didn't expect him to unseat Brady in year 2. He drafted Garoppolo knowing he would be starting in a few years because all of Belicheck's QBs have a chance to start at one point or another. If Garoppolo gets traded in the offseason to a team where he'll be the starter, that pick was successful. Shaq Thompson was drafted, knowing he would need to wait for Thomas Davis to retire before getting 3-down work. So he's an unsuccessful draft pick because Davis hasn't retired yet?

Weighting the success of each pick can lead to some issues as well. I put in 2004-2014. 2004 picks have had a few more years in order to earn those successful years, so would that make 2004 picks more successful than 2014 picks simply by virtue of having more than 3 years experience?

Who would've thought that deciding the success of a draft pick would be the most difficult part?

Another option is to just cop to the subjectivity. If anyone was interested, a couple people could work their way through the spreadsheet and simply vote whether they thought a pick was successful or not. Who's got time to vote on 960 draft picks?

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1 hour ago, ChicagoArch said:

But this raises the T-Rich/RGIII question and the Jimmy Garoppolo question again. T-Rich had a year as top 16 RB. But someone who drafted him at 1.01 wouldn't consider him a successful draft pick. Same with RGIII. On the other hand, the owner who drafted Jimmy Garoppolo didn't expect him to unseat Brady in year 2. He drafted Garoppolo knowing he would be starting in a few years because all of Belicheck's QBs have a chance to start at one point or another. If Garoppolo gets traded in the offseason to a team where he'll be the starter, that pick was successful. Shaq Thompson was drafted, knowing he would need to wait for Thomas Davis to retire before getting 3-down work. So he's an unsuccessful draft pick because Davis hasn't retired yet?

Weighting the success of each pick can lead to some issues as well. I put in 2004-2014. 2004 picks have had a few more years in order to earn those successful years, so would that make 2004 picks more successful than 2014 picks simply by virtue of having more than 3 years experience?

Who would've thought that deciding the success of a draft pick would be the most difficult part?

Another option is to just cop to the subjectivity. If anyone was interested, a couple people could work their way through the spreadsheet and simply vote whether they thought a pick was successful or not. Who's got time to vote on 960 draft picks?

I don't think lumping in Garoppolo into this discussion will get you what you are looking for.  Those type players are a special case to some degree....but I would also say to this point in his career Garoppolo wouldn't be considered a successful pick.  You haven't used him at all and basically he is just bench fodder (to this point) so he wouldn't be "successful".  After all the point is to have a player that contributes to your success and that only happens by playing and scoring fantasy points. 

 

This is all based on the assumption you are trying to get a reading on where "successful" players come from in the draft.  This is why I was alluding to using a "starting" grade as being top 36 WR in a 12-team start 3 WR league.  Anybody outside of that designation for a particular year wouldn't be in your lineup (theoretically).  Bottom line is you have to set the line for success at some point in order to have any meaning.  Maybe using the term "success" isn't the right term. 

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4 hours ago, Gally said:

I don't think lumping in Garoppolo into this discussion will get you what you are looking for.  Those type players are a special case to some degree....but I would also say to this point in his career Garoppolo wouldn't be considered a successful pick.  You haven't used him at all and basically he is just bench fodder (to this point) so he wouldn't be "successful".  After all the point is to have a player that contributes to your success and that only happens by playing and scoring fantasy points. 

 

This is all based on the assumption you are trying to get a reading on where "successful" players come from in the draft.  This is why I was alluding to using a "starting" grade as being top 36 WR in a 12-team start 3 WR league.  Anybody outside of that designation for a particular year wouldn't be in your lineup (theoretically).  Bottom line is you have to set the line for success at some point in order to have any meaning.  Maybe using the term "success" isn't the right term. 

I agree - Garoppolo looks about like Osweiler did last year, or Glennon.  Don't assume he'll be successful going forward IMO - grade him on what he's done.

For that reason, maybe only look at drafts up to 2013 or so, under the idea that a guy who doesn't score for you in his first three years was dropped from your team at some point anyway.

Regarding your top-36, I would just use the VBD column at pro-football-reference.  If a guy has a VBD score for a season, he was successful.  I prefer overall value over the career because I'm a little more boom/bust, but if you're looking for consistent starters, number of seasons with a VBD score gets you that.  The baseline isn't exactly 36, I think it's about 31 for WRs, but that's intentional and follows FBG's numbers as well.

Edited by Tick

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On 1/20/2017 at 3:53 PM, Hankmoody said:

Fusion
http://www67.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/23280

ConFusion
http://www67.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/18400

Any Time Any Place
http://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/35128

Any Other Time Any Other Place
http://www58.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/44780

Dynasty Warz
http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/47374

Dynasty Warz II
http://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/10792

Dynasty Warz III
http://www62.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/48401

None are Superflex, but all are full IDP with multiple years of draft history rookie only.  Most of these league are spawns of each other so will have very similar rules and requirements.

 

:unsure:  Shane Falco knows Hank Moody?  :ph34r:

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Just some leagues that originated at another site whose forums I used to frequent.

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