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The Trump Years- Every day something more shocking than the last!

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23 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

It's good that House Democrats can vote to condemn obvious and naked racism.  Now can we get on with impeachment, or are we just going to sit around and do nothing about all the other stuff?

I have $200 to win $580 I think and time is running out. 

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10 hours ago, Dan Lambskin said:

He’s going to run America like a business!

Like  a mob boss runs his business!

Edited by lazyike

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4 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

A beautiful city I'm told - with a large Sikh community.

Is that where darth maul is from?

Edited by Snorkelson
Go back to Vancouver, maul!
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7 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

I work in a very diverse office (at one point I counted immigrants from 14 different countries). I couldn't imagine having a disagreement with any of them and telling them to "go back where you came from". Probably even lose my job.

Anyone who said that to someone in my firm would be fired immediately.   Trump drained Washington alright.  He drained it of any moral or ethical minimum standard to hold public office.   

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House resolution hits brief snag as Nancy Pelosi violates 200-year-rule prohibiting accusations of racism

Actually it looks like the specific language about racism was inserted by Republicans since 2016. I do like the idea of requiring a certain level of decorum from members of Congress, though. The House should think about adding things to the list to protect potential Democratic presidents ("...thou shalt not accuse the President of creepy shoulder rubs...").

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10 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

It would be a pretty big deal if the President of the United States didn't know how to pronounce al Qaeda and needed a phonetic spelling.

Nah, not to me. Another symptom of his cognitive slide. Which is actually scarier

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10 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Is that where darth maul is from?

No that’s Dathomir :nerd:

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14 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

It's good that House Democrats can vote to condemn obvious and naked racism.  Now can we get on with impeachment, or are we just going to sit around and do nothing about all the other stuff?

A million times this.....

It's an utter embarrassment. 

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Trump dropping in polls with the people who matter, independents and women over his racist tweets.  Got to love the GOP going public with backing a racist president. Strange strategy  thinking most Americans give 2 ####s over 4 random house members who they can't vote for or against over the actions of the President,  someone they can vote against. 

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I think the overall strategy is to recreate the 2016 environment. How to do this when Biden and other candidates are generally well liked? Try to recreate the center-left wedge that existed with Hillary-Sanders and recreate female targets that much of the base will consider unlikable. That's obviously the goal, but the fundamentals are not there but they will obviously be trying this through 2020.

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The CEO of Axios wrote this morning that we're going to see a lot more race baiting from the president.

Quote

 

It might seem like improvisational madness when President Trump tells American citizens in Congress to "go back." But those close to Trump say there's a lot of calculation behind his race-baiting, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes.

Why it matters: It’s central to his 2020 strategy, they say.

The rough calculation goes like this: 

Trump knows that in 2016, he won the white vote by 20+ points. 

He hopes he can crank their turnout even higher, especially among older, white evangelicals. He knows most of those voters are unlikely to ditch him, no matter how offensive his comments.

He watches Fox News and knows AOC, in particular, is catnip to old, white voters, especially men. She is young, Hispanic, female and a democratic socialist — a 4-for-4 grievance magnet. Last week, AOC got nearly as much online attention as all 2020 Democrats combined.

Trump believes he did better than Mitt Romney among Hispanic voters because many who came here and went through the legal process agree with his views. 

Axios sat in on a focus group in Michigan where white swing voters agreed with Trump on immigration. Carlos Algara, a political scientist at UC Davis, told the N.Y. Times that a forthcoming analysis of the 2018 midterms found that even without Trump on the ballot, "white Democrats with high levels of racial resentment were likely to vote ... Republican."

Facebook is often his incubator. He has spent three times more than all Democratic contenders combined on Facebook, with a mix of message-testing immigration lines to appealing to Hispanics who seem susceptible to his worldview. 

So Trump calculates that (white voters + some Hispanic voters) * (tough immigration rhetoric + race-baiting language) = narrow 2020 win. 

The bottom line: Trump sees the four progressive women in The Squad as perfect foils until he gets a Democratic nominee to run against.

N.Y. Times: "He has told aides ... that he is pleased with the Democratic reaction to his attacks, boasting that he is 'marrying' ... Pelosi and the Democratic Party to the four congresswomen known as 'the Squad.'"

Then, he will try to do the same to the nominee.

The big picture ... Sad but true: Trump associates predict more, not less, of the race-baiting madness.

 

Also, SOCIALISM.

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16 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

She is young, Hispanic, female and a democratic socialist

I'm OUT!

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20 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

The CEO of Axios wrote this morning that we're going to see a lot more race baiting from the president.

Also, SOCIALISM.

I hope they keep going down that rabbit hole. Most people are friends, work with or their kids go to school with minorities. If their minority contacts are telling them this is racist that's who they will go with.

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Quote

He hopes he can crank their turnout even higher, especially among older, white evangelicals. He knows most of those voters are unlikely to ditch him, no matter how offensive his comments.

Almost three million of these 2016 voters will have died by '20 so he's really going to have to dig deep deep deep to increase turnout there. I also think that for every new voter he rallies to him by being even worse than before, he is alienating two more who will enter the booths for the first time thinking that Donald Trump is not who we want as the face of the nation.

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19 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Almost three million of these 2016 voters will have died by '20 so he's really going to have to dig deep deep deep to increase turnout there.

While this undoubtedly is true, there are two comments here I'd like to make:

1) Isn't the average age of the US increasing? 

2) What is Trump's approval in the 3m+ people that in the mean time will have moved into the "old fart" category? Is it really that much lower?

Edited by msommer

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2 minutes ago, msommer said:

While this undoubtedly is true, there are two comments here I'd like to make:

1) Isn't the average age of the US increasing? 

2) What is Trump's approval in the 3m+ people that in the mean time will have moved into the "old fart" category? Is it really that much lower?

1) Yes, and will continue for a while.

  ) That's not who's replacing the dead people. They're being replaced by Millennial voters, where Donald loses by 35 points. 

Rob Reiner tweeted a suggestion today that, if there are Apprentice tapes with Trump using the N-word, that Republicans should get them released to really fire up the base.

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57 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Almost three million of these 2016 voters will have died by '20 so he's really going to have to dig deep deep deep to increase turnout there. I also think that for every new voter he rallies to him by being even worse than before, he is alienating two more who will enter the booths for the first time thinking that Donald Trump is not who we want as the face of the nation.

HFS, that's craxy. 

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Just now, Sheriff Bart said:

HFS, that's craxy. 

No, gb, it's actually pretty basic numbers. A little over two million of Hilary voters will have gone to that great ballot booth in the sky, too. Just under three million people die every year in this country and right around four million are born. Donald had a reasonable edge with the former but gets clobbered in the group who have turned 18 since 2016. If the 18-29s turn out to vote in '20, Trump is toast; he can't find enough anti-minority white folks out there to overcome what that bunch can do to him.

Can we get them out in force? I dunno, I just don't know.

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9 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

No, gb, it's actually pretty basic numbers. A little over two million of Hilary voters will have gone to that great ballot booth in the sky, too. Just under three million people die every year in this country and right around four million are born. Donald had a reasonable edge with the former but gets clobbered in the group who have turned 18 since 2016. If the 18-29s turn out to vote in '20, Trump is toast; he can't find enough anti-minority white folks out there to overcome what that bunch can do to him.

Can we get them out in force? I dunno, I just don't know.

Not doubting you GB, just never really thought about it. 

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14 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

NEWS: SDNY has concluded its probe into Trump campaign finance violations tied to the Michael Cohen case, according to a federal judge order released Wednesday. Link to his order where he breaks the news is here: (link: http://ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj) ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj

Orders that the info be unredacted

Quote

Accordingly, the Government is directed to file the July 15, 2019 status report and the Materials on the public docket on July 18, 2019 at 11:00 a.m. The July 15, 2019 status report shall be unredacted in its entirety, except that limited references in the footnote to an uncharged third-party may remain redacted. See United States v. Smith, 985 F. Supp. 2d 506, 526 (S.D.N.Y. 2013). The Materials shall be unredacted in their entirety, except that the names of law enforcement investigators, references to individuals who purportedly engaged in business transactions or contemplated business transactions with Cohen relating to taxi medallions, see Cohen, 366 F. Supp. 3d at 625, and personal information referenced in this Court’s March 18, 2019 Order may remain redacted.

 

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If Trump wants to court the racist vote, which seems probable, that might mean his “defense” of Pelosi was actually just him saying she’s not racist enough 

Politically, that really is sort of genius

Edited by randall146

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11 minutes ago, randall146 said:

the racist vote

What is the “racist vote” ?

 

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48 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

No, gb, it's actually pretty basic numbers. A little over two million of Hilary voters will have gone to that great ballot booth in the sky, too. Just under three million people die every year in this country

That works out to about 40,000 men and women every day.  We can be like they are.

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1 minute ago, roadkill1292 said:

1) Yes, and will continue for a while.

  ) That's not who's replacing the dead people. They're being replaced by Millennial voters, where Donald loses by 35 points. 

Rob Reiner tweeted a suggestion today that, if there are Apprentice tapes with Trump using the N-word, that Republicans should get them released to really fire up the base.

Re 2, yes there are new millennials coming in. Say 4 million but if only 35% of them vote it won't move the needle much if the 'new' old people support Trump vigorously.

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5 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

What is the “racist vote” ?

 

The racists who vote

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4 minutes ago, msommer said:

Re 2, yes there are new millennials coming in. Say 4 million but if only 35% of them vote it won't move the needle much if the 'new' old people support Trump vigorously.

Well, we already know how what you call the "new" old people will vote because they've already been voting for a long time. And that will be for Trump, but not "vigorously." 

Let's look at it like this: if six million old '16 voters are now dead and six million new young people vote this time (lower turnout rate but bigger overall numbers), we know that Dems gain a sizable edge in this trade, somewhere between 1-2 million. That may be enough to flip those states where Donald drew his inside straight, maybe not. Which is why I think it comes down instead to people who declined to vote in '16 and experts think that could be a monstrous number. Who wins 'em? I dunno, I obviously hope that the bulk of those folks are terrified of four more years of The Don.

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20 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

What is the “racist vote” ?

 

People who vote based on racist attitudes

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57 minutes ago, apalmer said:
1 hour ago, Bucky86 said:

NEWS: SDNY has concluded its probe into Trump campaign finance violations tied to the Michael Cohen case, according to a federal judge order released Wednesday. Link to his order where he breaks the news is here: (link: http://ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj) ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj

Orders that the info be unredacted

Quote

Accordingly, the Government is directed to file the July 15, 2019 status report and the Materials on the public docket on July 18, 2019 at 11:00 a.m. The July 15, 2019 status report shall be unredacted in its entirety, except that limited references in the footnote to an uncharged third-party may remain redacted. See United States v. Smith, 985 F. Supp. 2d 506, 526 (S.D.N.Y. 2013). The Materials shall be unredacted in their entirety, except that the names of law enforcement investigators, references to individuals who purportedly engaged in business transactions or contemplated business transactions with Cohen relating to taxi medallions, see Cohen, 366 F. Supp. 3d at 625, and personal information referenced in this Court’s March 18, 2019 Order may remain redacted.

Mark your calendar fellers.

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50 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

That works out to about 40,000 men and women every day.  We can be like they are.

We'll be able to fly!

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2 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

That works out to about 40,000 men and women every day.  We can be like they are.

I've read this a bunch of times and I still understand neither it nor the follow up post by lard. It's probably something really simple that I'm missing, right?

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3 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

NEWS: SDNY has concluded its probe into Trump campaign finance violations tied to the Michael Cohen case, according to a federal judge order released Wednesday. Link to his order where he breaks the news is here: (link: http://ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj) ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj

THIRD BRANCH!!! THIRD BRANCH!!! THIRD BRANCH!!!

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3 hours ago, apalmer said:
3 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

NEWS: SDNY has concluded its probe into Trump campaign finance violations tied to the Michael Cohen case, according to a federal judge order released Wednesday. Link to his order where he breaks the news is here: (link: http://ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj) ow.ly/gv7z50v31gj

Orders that the info be unredacted

Quote

Accordingly, the Government is directed to file the July 15, 2019 status report and the Materials on the public docket on July 18, 2019 at 11:00 a.m. The July 15, 2019 status report shall be unredacted in its entirety, except that limited references in the footnote to an uncharged third-party may remain redacted. See United States v. Smith, 985 F. Supp. 2d 506, 526 (S.D.N.Y. 2013). The Materials shall be unredacted in their entirety, except that the names of law enforcement investigators, references to individuals who purportedly engaged in business transactions or contemplated business transactions with Cohen relating to taxi medallions, see Cohen, 366 F. Supp. 3d at 625, and personal information referenced in this Court’s March 18, 2019 Order may remain redacted.

Can someone unpack this for us laymen? I'd like to be clear this says what I think it does.

Also, what are the odds the Government actually abides by this order and submits the unredacted status report? I mean, given their recent history on following court orders.

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3 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

Can someone unpack this for us laymen? I'd like to be clear this says what I think it does.

Also, what are the odds the Government actually abides by this order and submits the unredacted status report? I mean, given their recent history on following court orders.

Pretty sure that the gov in this case is NY State so probably will abide. Unless Rudi and his buddies step in. 

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4 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

No, gb, it's actually pretty basic numbers. A little over two million of Hilary voters will have gone to that great ballot booth in the sky, too. Just under three million people die every year in this country and right around four million are born. Donald had a reasonable edge with the former but gets clobbered in the group who have turned 18 since 2016. If the 18-29s turn out to vote in '20, Trump is toast; he can't find enough anti-minority white folks out there to overcome what that bunch can do to him.

Can we get them out in force? I dunno, I just don't know.

I don't hold out much hope for huge numbers of young people. I think the battle will be one or lost in the suburbs. At least if 2018 tells us anything. Although young turnout is better in Presidential elections. 

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5 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

I also think that for every new voter he rallies to him by being even worse than before, he is alienating two more who will enter the booths for the first time thinking that Donald Trump is not who we want as the face of the nation.

I think this gets to the heart of it.  He's so obsessed with holding his base that he isn't doing what he needs to do to expand the base in any meaningful way.  He should be trumpeting (pun intended) the economy at every chance he gets, but he can't his foot out of his mouth long enough to do so.

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12 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I don't hold out much hope for huge numbers of young people. I think the battle will be one or lost in the suburbs. At least if 2018 tells us anything. Although young turnout is better in Presidential elections. 

The concern about yoot turnout is justified by recent data. But while overall turnout from the 2014 midterms to last year increased by over 40%, turnout from younger voters increased by 90% (a very bad 20% to an almost respectable 36%). For a midterm. Which is why I think under-30 turnout could reach 45% next year and which would pretty much make Trump toast. He can't survive losing another major demographic by 35 points.

Your point about the suburbs remains true as well, imo. Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta -- those suburbs are where Republicans got clobbered this past November. If Donald can't get 'em back and the young people come out, he's gonna have to hit an even luckier EC inside straight than he did in '16. Or get some help.

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1 hour ago, Amused to Death said:

Can someone unpack this for us laymen? I'd like to be clear this says what I think it does.

Also, what are the odds the Government actually abides by this order and submits the unredacted status report? I mean, given their recent history on following court orders.

When the FBi raided (or "broke into" if you use Trump terminology) Cohen's office, home, etc. they did so under search warrants.  At the time, those warrants, the applications for search warrants and the affidavits upon which they were based were under seal because the FBI maintained the info in them had to be kept secret so as not to interfere with the ongoing investigation.  Various media outlets (networks, newspapers, AP, etc.) sued to have them unsealed so that they could access the info in them. In Feb., 2019, the Court ordered the Government (Federal, NOT NY) to file redacted versions hiding the info it deemed to be necessary to keep sealed, pending the conclusion of the investigation and to provide a status report to the Court on July 15.  The Government did so and its status report indicated that the investigation was complete. Because it is complete, the Court says there's no longer a need to hide the info (other than the few exceptions noted above) and ordered the Government to now file unredacted versions so that the media can see the affidavits of probable cause, etc. and then report what the basis was behind the FBI's raids. 

 

Two years ago, I would have said, "Of course the Justice Department will comply with the Court Order." Now? Your guess is as good as mine, although it's likely that there isn't much in the affidavits worth hiding any longer.

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On 7/17/2019 at 7:52 AM, msommer said:

"Racism is Donald Trump's Brand"

- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

I don't know how many times we need to have the ridiculous debate as to whether President Trump is a racist when it is so obvious. His ####hole country remarks also supposedly included why can't we get more immigrants from Norway.

https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/gop-sen-tim-scott-sen-graham-confirmed-trumps-####hole-countries-quote-accurate/

Edited by lazyike
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