Stinkin Ref

2017 WSL1 Discussion Thread.......

189 posts in this topic

On 2/9/2017 at 3:09 PM, Duckboy said:

Alex Ellis is Evan Engram TE.  Going with 2 rookie TEs can't be a bad thing can it? :loco::banned:

No worse than drafting Josh Gordon.

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20.3 Cyrus gray = Wayne Galman RB

Edited by Crippler

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QB: Brady, Flacco. Like this combo. Stud and steadie Eddie. So many might have only 1 QB

RB: Fournette, Bernard, Martin, Perine, Galman. This is my suspect group with 3 rookies and no bell cow yet. Could be good to knock me out early

WR: Cooper, Sanders, White, Sanu, Dorset, Austin, Amendola. As group for submitting lineup, I would hate this group. But for best all, I think it will be good. All capable of big games to overcome the bad ones. Torrey Smith I really wanted and almost lasted. Hope not settling for Browns does not hurt

TE: Olsen, Hooper. Old steady and up and comer. Hopefully Hooper steps up in year 2. Almost drafted another in 20th as one I like out there

PK: Crosby, zuerlein, Hope Rams O gets better. Lots of guys I did not want in the pool. These 2 will have jobs and one is top O

D: Dallas, Tennessee. Waited as don't care. This is the one that can change and I looked at teams that will look too. Cowboys feel on verge with Jones at helm and Titans with picks. Expect both to be a lot better. Just wanted 2. 

Looks good for survivor depending on rookie RB. 

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Roster

Bortles, Blake JAC QB

Mariota, Marcus TEN QB

Gurley, Todd RAM RB

Hunt, Kareem ROOK  RB

Hyde, Carlos SFO RB

Mixon, Joe ROOK RB

Zenner, Zach DET RB

Beckham, Odell NYG WR

Gordon, Josh CLE WR

Kupp, Cooper ROOK WR

Lee, Marqise JAC WR

Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR

Meredith, Cameron CHI WR

Williams, Mike ROOK WR

Barnidge, Gary CLE TE

Walker, Delanie TEN TE

Gould, Robbie NYG PK

Hauschka, Steven SEA PK

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def

Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

Two rookie running backs, two rookie receivers, two NFC west RBs, two Titans, two Jaguars, two old tight ends, two NFC south defenses, two kickers, two guys with disciplinary problems (in the past). :towelwave:

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Now that the draft is over, is anyone else surprised that none of Watson or the other rookie QBs were taken?  I thought about Watson last round but I really like kupp and had looked his way for a few rounds.  

Also wanted butt. 

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3 hours ago, FUBAR said:

Now that the draft is over, is anyone else surprised that none of Watson or the other rookie QBs were taken?  I thought about Watson last round but I really like kupp and had looked his way for a few rounds.  

Also wanted butt. 

A few guys not drafted that might come back to haunt. Maxx Williams was the TE I took a hard look at. Think talented and now in year 3. 

 

Zane Gonzalez was a thought for last round pm so Bass taking what I gave thought too, will be interesting after aguago suffered badly last year.m

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3 hours ago, FUBAR said:

Now that the draft is over, is anyone else surprised that none of Watson or the other rookie QBs were taken?  I thought about Watson last round but I really like kupp and had looked his way for a few rounds.  

Also wanted butt. 

Considering some of the qb's drafted....yes

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10 hours ago, Crippler said:

QB: Brady, Flacco. Like this combo. Stud and steadie Eddie. So many might have only 1 QB

RB: Fournette, Bernard, Martin, Perine, Galman. This is my suspect group with 3 rookies and no bell cow yet. Could be good to knock me out early

WR: Cooper, Sanders, White, Sanu, Dorset, Austin, Amendola. As group for submitting lineup, I would hate this group. But for best all, I think it will be good. All capable of big games to overcome the bad ones. Torrey Smith I really wanted and almost lasted. Hope not settling for Browns does not hurt

TE: Olsen, Hooper. Old steady and up and comer. Hopefully Hooper steps up in year 2. Almost drafted another in 20th as one I like out there

PK: Crosby, zuerlein, Hope Rams O gets better. Lots of guys I did not want in the pool. These 2 will have jobs and one is top O

D: Dallas, Tennessee. Waited as don't care. This is the one that can change and I looked at teams that will look too. Cowboys feel on verge with Jones at helm and Titans with picks. Expect both to be a lot better. Just wanted 2. 

Looks good for survivor depending on rookie RB. 

Liked the price you got on Flacco...solid qb2 and tough combo....yeah RB's a little shaky and Martin out for first 4....agree about best ball attitude of your wr group....solid TE's....overall might be some tough weeks

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6 hours ago, FUBAR said:

Roster

Bortles, Blake JAC QB

Mariota, Marcus TEN QB

Gurley, Todd RAM RB

Hunt, Kareem ROOK  RB

Hyde, Carlos SFO RB

Mixon, Joe ROOK RB

Zenner, Zach DET RB

Beckham, Odell NYG WR

Gordon, Josh CLE WR

Kupp, Cooper ROOK WR

Lee, Marqise JAC WR

Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR

Meredith, Cameron CHI WR

Williams, Mike ROOK WR

Barnidge, Gary CLE TE

Walker, Delanie TEN TE

Gould, Robbie NYG PK

Hauschka, Steven SEA PK

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def

Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

Two rookie running backs, two rookie receivers, two NFC west RBs, two Titans, two Jaguars, two old tight ends, two NFC south defenses, two kickers, two guys with disciplinary problems (in the past). :towelwave:

I like this team overall as Gurley and Hyde might be bargains like QB combo even tho Bortles struggles as a real qb....WR's will need your rooks to help...like walker in this format.....

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7 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I like this team overall as Gurley and Hyde might be bargains like QB combo even tho Bortles struggles as a real qb....WR's will need your rooks to help...like walker in this format.....

I am not big on either RB as both capable in any week of 25 yards and not much else. Don't like Barnidge much. Can only go down with strong TE class. Neither PK guaranteed job. 30% chance one without to start season. 

So this team is good to go to kick my ###. 

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31 minutes ago, Crippler said:

I am not big on either RB as both capable in any week of 25 yards and not much else. Don't like Barnidge much. Can only go down with strong TE class. Neither PK guaranteed job. 30% chance one without to start season. 

So this team is good to go to kick my ###. 

:shrug: we'll see how this plays out of course.  But I don't think ref was predicting anything.  

The rookie draft isn't going to affect Barnidge much if at all (I really don't see the Browns drafting a TE high), but better qb play would benefit him. So your comment of "nowhere to go but down" is just wrong.   He was the 27th TE taken (yet the 18th TE last year).  I considered thomas and higbee there but barnidge was the safer pick and I think he bounces back.  

Hyde might be capable of a 25 yard game, I mean he did have one game under 25 yards last year, on a horrendous team.  Gurley might be, but he had zero games under 25 yards last year.  But I didn't pick them for their 2016 seasons, again I think they bounce back - I'm actually much more confident they do than barnidge. 

Haushka is a free agent but he's easily a top 10 kicker.  If Seattle doesn't re-sign him, someone else will.  Gould, also a FA, made 100% of his field goals last year.  I'm betting he'll also work next year.  Your guy Greg the leg, also a free agent, has a career average under 80% (he'll probably have a job but he's inconsistent). 

My team's biggest faults are that too many of my players play for bad teams and I took too much risk.   I usually try to avoid both of those in early drafts.  

Edited by FUBAR

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MR. IRRELEVANT
Player YTD Pts Drafted
Carr, Derek OAK QB 381.55 5.01
Wentz, Carson PHI QB 317.80 6.16
Ervin, Tyler HOU RB 5.10 20.16
Gillislee, Mike BUF RB 125.60 15.01
Johnson, David ARI RB 413.80 1.01
Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 42.80 7.01
Cooks, Brandin NOS WR 246.30 2.16
Davis, Corey ROOK WR 0.00 11.01
Funchess, Devin CAR WR 86.10 17.01
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 180.50 9.01
Montgomery, Ty GBP WR (RB?) 142.50 8.16
Pryor, Terrelle CLE WR 213.85 4.16
Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR 2.50 12.16
Davis, Vernon WAS TE 158.30 19.01
McDonald, Vance SFO TE 111.10 10.16
Reed, Jordan WAS TE 236.60 3.01
Forbath, Kai MIN PK 56.00 16.16
Lutz, Wil NOS PK 133.00 14.16
Broncos, Denver DEN Def 142.00 13.01
Colts, Indianapolis IND Def 87.00 18.16

 

QB: Just because I won MBSL last year with one starting QB doesn't mean I feel like tempting fate again - so being at the turn I had to go to the backup well early on. Carr was a top-10 scorer on a PPG basis last year and the arrow continues to point up in Oakland. There's zero chance the Eagles go into Year 2 of the Wentz Era with the same lack of offensive playmakers that plagued him as a rookie; I expect them to address WR in both FA and the draft, which gives Wentz significant season-long upside. Together should be somewhat above-average ... not world-beaters but not the reason I get eliminated either.

RB: My team's wagon is definitely hitched to DJ but I'm fine with that - if healthy he's probably an odds-on favorite for 2,000 YFS. Between Lacy and Montgomery I'm optimistic I have at least one primary backfield option for the Packers. Best case is Lacy tests FA, earns himself a LeGarrette Blount-type role with another team, and McCarthy trusts Monty enough to give him a crack as an RB1. Gillislee is one of the more talented backups in the league playing behind a fragile 29-year-old. And, hey, finally Mr. Irrelevant got to draft a survivor league Mr. Irrelevant! :lol: Ervin's a dart-throw, but his upside as PR/KR could be useful under the new rules. 

WR: Kind of a motley crew here but I feel like they work well together in best-ball. I've got one every-week PPR stud in Cooks; one guy with WR1 upside in Pryor; one deep-ball specialist in D-Jax; and then three young guys with loads of talent that give me high ceilings, if low floors. Davis may be the first WR off the board - in truth I'm praying he falls to my Eagles at 14/15.  I'll own Treadwell everywhere this year if his ADP stays in the WR70+ range ... people have short memories, but one injury-plagued season is way too early to write a highly-touted 1st-rounder off as a bust. Funchess ... meh, less confident about him, but he'll still be only 23, and if nothing else should be good for a few cheap jump-ball TDs.

TE: Reed's the kind of guy that IMO is more valuable in the earlier SL drafts ... 20 rounds gives you the flexibility to go 3-deep at QB or TE, where the 18-rounders make that difficult without sacrificing depth elsewhere. Absolute monster when he plays and if I can get 10 good weeks out of him I'll call it a win, especially since I was fortunate enough to grab Davis as insurance in the 19th (Ref took him three rounds earlier in WSL2). McDonald is an interesting proposition - probably the most explosive skill-position athlete on the dumpster fire that is SF, hopefully the new regime will find more ways to work him into the gameplan. Really like this trio and think they could be key if I make a deep run.

ST: Two steals at the kicker position at PK17 and PK28. Guys with some measure of job security, kicking in domes, who should get plenty of opportunities. Not sure I've ever taken the first DST off the board before, but nothing else appealed to me at the 12/13 turn and even if they only repeat last year's numbers, hey, that's 50 VBD you're not likely to find anywhere else 13 rounds in. As for Indy ... well, at least they aren't the Browns, and, ummm, yeah.

Overall I'm happy enough with this lineup, even if it's a fool's errand trying to guess how things are going to shake out 7 months from now. Should have enough consistent performers to get me through the first few weeks, but will probably need a couple things to fall my way at RB and at least one of my three young WRs to make the leap in order to be a serious contender.

Best of luck to all. :shark:

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

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16 hours ago, FUBAR said:

Now that the draft is over, is anyone else surprised that none of Watson or the other rookie QBs were taken?  I thought about Watson last round but I really like kupp and had looked his way for a few rounds.  

Like I said in my last post, people have short memories, and Goff / Lynch probably burned quite a few folks in these leagues last season (Wentz at least played a full season, but finished QB23, so not like even he delivered massive value). Once you get past about the 9th round in these things QB becomes a total crapshoot, so I'd probably lean towards Watson or Trubisky with a last-rounder versus spending a 12th or 13th on a name like Garoppolo or Glennon whom nobody can say for sure will even start a game next season.

A few other names I'm surprised were left on the board: Vereen (only 28, should still be PPR relevant somewhere), AlMo (likely 2nd-stringer with the league's best OL), Leonte Carroo (Stills likely lost to FA and Parker has shown nothing), Maxx Williams as mentioned above, maybe even Nelson Agholor. :scared:

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4.14 Cam Newton QB8 CAR
9.03 Tony Romo QB26 DAL

Cam seemed like value and a solid pick nearing round 5 if you believe this was a down year and he and the rest of the team should improve.  I guess if you split the difference between this year and the year before he maybe is right where he should be, but I won't be surprised if he finishes top 4. Romo was a late target all along knowing he would fall but also knowing he will be starting for somebody next year.  He should piss all over QB26. 

Update: was tempted to add a third but needed the pick elsewhere…looking back, glad I stayed with just these two, as I think I will feel much better about this combo, particularly the Romo side of it, months from now. 

1.03 Ezekiel Elliot RB3 DAL
5.03 Thomas Rawls RB19 SEA
7.03 Adrian Peterson RB29 MIN
13.03 James White RB58 NE

Zeke was basically an auto pick as we know who the top 3 will be.  I have my own opinions on how they should be ranked, but you really can't go wrong with any of them (maybe). I'm assuming Rawls is the main man so I'll gobble him up all day at RB19.  Speaking of all day....I guess the Mock Draft Forum thinks ADP is dead with his initial ADP of RB29. Maybe I'm completely misreading it.  But whether he stays at a reduced rate or goes elsewhere, I still feel he has enough left to be a difference maker in the 7th round.  Dude has comeback before at a high level and I'm not gonna say it can't happen again. I'd actually prefer he go elsewhere, but I'll roll the dice at RB29 in the 7th.
 

Update: added White at 13.03 shortly after the SB IIRC…decent RB4 in this format will see what his role is with Lewis hurt and Blount a FA….but he should still see some snaps and receptions no matter what….felt little need to add a 5th as feel the top 3 should be just fine…I don’t really draft in these worrying about injury, I usually take the mindset that my guys will be healthy all year, if not I probably shouldn’t have drafted them….so if all 4 of these guys are healthy, I’ll put them up against any other group in this draft. 


2.14 Doug Baldwin WR14 SEA
3.03 Tyreek Hill WR17 KC
6.14 Martavis Bryant WR39 PIT
11.03 Pierre Garcon WR60 FA
12.14 J.J. Nelson WR73 ARZ
17.03 Dorial Green-Beckham WR86 PHI
20.14 Brandon Coleman WR106 NOS


Baldwin and Wilson seem to have a consistency thing going on that works pretty well in this format.  He was WR8 last year so a decent start at WR from the 2-3 turn. Hill was a reach at WR17....by one spot.  He finished WR18.  Dripping with best ball juiciness.  Will reach for him a ton in this format.  He will only get more touches. Bryant is the captain of my go big or go home attitude.  Another dice roll like ADP that I hope pays off. 

Update: Garcon had a pretty solid year but is a FA, should still be solid no matter where he goes.  Nelson came on a little down the stretch and Palmer seems to look for him at times.  Should have more opportunity now with Floyd gone and brown doing the sickle cell thing.  Nelson can post a score on limited touches. DGB was a total crapshoot/gamble hoping he gets it figured out at some point.  Went with little upside I still think he has.  Not sure what his role will be and what PHI will end up doing, but if DGB can at least be a starter in 3 wide sets, he might score for me occasionally but I’m not real optimistic. There was very little left in the 20th round but thought I needed to go WR.  Almost pulled the trigger on Kearse but thought that was playing it a little too safe and he has some guys already behind him that are pushing for PT.  As a Michael Thomas owner in both of my main leagues last year I watched several Saints games last year and sure enough Coleman would find his way on the field every once in a while.  Many times in the red zone. He needs an injury from one of the 3 guys in front of him to do anything significant, so like DGB, I’m not real optimistic, but the talent is there.  I will admit, I have some kind of weird thing for both DGB and Coleman, it just seems like the talent is there, they just haven’t used it yet. If nothing else they seem to be decent red zone guys. Top 5 will have to do the heavy lifting here. May have rolled the dice a little too much with group overall.


8.14 Martellus Bennett TE15 NE
10.14 O.J. Howard TE25ROOK
19.03 A.J. Derby TE36 DEN

In the 8th I was sitting on Jared Cook, as I almost took him at the 6-7 turn but couldn't pass on ADP, and couldn't believe he almost made it back to me until Bass ####ed that all up. Bennett will suffice whether he stays in NE or not.  We get two extra picks in WSL so can throw some darts here later.

Update: Well, darts it is. Howard seems to have the goods.  But so did other guys like him in the past.  If he sticks a good landing spot, he could be money, even in his rookie year.  Hate the Broncos but I can’t ignore what Derby did after coming to DEN and prior to his concussion.  Now it wasn’t anything spectacular but it was enough of an eyebrow raiser to file it away as a late pick in these drafts. Probably shouldn’t post it here, cause I’m hoping to snag him in WSL2 too, but he could be a double digit scorer most weeks.  

14.14 Brandon McManus PK15 DEN
15.03 Josh Lambo PK19 LAC

16.14 Miami Dolphins DST16
18.14 New York Jets DST30

Update: So generally not a fan of players in the same division at these spots due to potential bye week issues, but you really never know what you are going to get from the NFL anymore, so I just went with who I wanted. PK’s should be just fine, and really have no clue about the DST’s. 

Overall: Felt like my draft lost a little steam after round 13, but 4 of the last 7 picks go to PK and DST so I guess it’s going to feel like that.  The other 3 picks were DGB, Coleman, and Derby so yeah, not much to get excited about. I could have the highest scoring QB and the highest scoring RB, so I got that going for me.  Rawls, Peterson, White….pretty solid.  If Bryant comes back and assumes his role with PIT, I like my top 5 WR’s.  TE…meh…could ham and egg a decent score, and some potential to actually have 3 pretty good options. WR production will determine my survival, but I feel I have immunity earning pop up and down this lineup.  Good luck guys.
 

:banned:

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Like I said in my last post, people have short memories, and Goff / Lynch probably burned quite a few folks in these leagues last season (Wentz at least played a full season, but finished QB23, so not like even he delivered massive value). Once you get past about the 9th round in these things QB becomes a total crapshoot, so I'd probably lean towards Watson or Trubisky with a last-rounder versus spending a 12th or 13th on a name like Garoppolo or Glennon whom nobody can say for sure will even start a game next season.

A few other names I'm surprised were left on the board: Vereen (only 28, should still be PPR relevant somewhere), AlMo (likely 2nd-stringer with the league's best OL), Leonte Carroo (Stills likely lost to FA and Parker has shown nothing), Maxx Williams as mentioned above, maybe even Nelson Agholor. :scared:

Tossed around Agholor in the 20th, but he may just not be very good and why they are looking elsewhere. I just felt like it would be punching myself in the nuts if I took him.  Agree about Vereen, I sniffed him but couldn't pull the trigger/didn't need. There were a few others, can't see them cause MFL is down, but I think Jennings went undrafted and couple other guys like Starks, etc. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Like I said in my last post, people have short memories, and Goff / Lynch probably burned quite a few folks in these leagues last season (Wentz at least played a full season, but finished QB23, so not like even he delivered massive value). Once you get past about the 9th round in these things QB becomes a total crapshoot, so I'd probably lean towards Watson or Trubisky with a last-rounder versus spending a 12th or 13th on a name like Garoppolo or Glennon whom nobody can say for sure will even start a game next season.

A few other names I'm surprised were left on the board: Vereen (only 28, should still be PPR relevant somewhere), AlMo (likely 2nd-stringer with the league's best OL), Leonte Carroo (Stills likely lost to FA and Parker has shown nothing), Maxx Williams as mentioned above, maybe even Nelson Agholor. :scared:

if somebody deals fro Grap....he's probably starting...

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

 

Update: So generally not a fan of players in the same division at these spots due to potential bye week issues, but you really never know what you are going to get from the NFL anymore...

That's an interesting comment.  In 2016, only week 9 had 2 teams in the same division on bye - and seemingly half the league was out that week.  But then in 2015, 5 weeks had two teams from the same division on bye.  Haven't done the math but it seems no more likely than any random two teams sharing a bye.  

If the Jags and Titans share a bye I'm probably screwed but that's true for any qb combo. 

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27 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

That's an interesting comment.  In 2016, only week 9 had 2 teams in the same division on bye - and seemingly half the league was out that week.  But then in 2015, 5 weeks had two teams from the same division on bye.  Haven't done the math but it seems no more likely than any random two teams sharing a bye.  

If the Jags and Titans share a bye I'm probably screwed but that's true for any qb combo. 

I think the NFL likes having divisional rivals share bye weeks in theory, but if you've ever read an in-depth account of how the schedule is created, you realize how quickly the thousand different constraints around stadium conflicts, travel, seasons, unwritten rules, etc. cut into their flexibility, and we wind up with seemingly stupid things like 8 byes in the same week, or byes in week 13 but none in week 12. Bottom line is you really never can tell ...

Not that anyone asked, but If I were re-creating the survivor leagues from scratch, I'd probably set them up something like this:

  • WSL - 12 teams, 25 roster spots
  • PDSL - 14 teams, 22-23 roster spots
  • SSL - 16 teams, 20 roster spots
  • MBSL - 16 teams, 18 roster spots

Especially with the WSLs (and often the PDSLs) drafting before the schedule gets released, it'd be nice to have the ability to go 3-deep at the start-1 positions to provide a last line of defense against bye-week conflicts ... which, unlike benchings, and even injuries to some extent, are completely arbitrary. Obviously it'd be meaningless in a 16-teamer, but in the 12-14 team sweet spot teams would have to make some strategic decisions to either pull the trigger on QB3/TE3/PK3 a couple rounds early to lock up a viable starter, draft both ends of a camp battle, or roll the dice and add depth elsewhere instead ...

(Random related point - I love the flex idea BnB added into SSL and MBSL last year ... hoping that becomes a permanent thing going forward, at least in the later sets of SLs.)

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21 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Like I said in my last post, people have short memories, and Goff / Lynch probably burned quite a few folks in these leagues last season (Wentz at least played a full season, but finished QB23, so not like even he delivered massive value). Once you get past about the 9th round in these things QB becomes a total crapshoot, so I'd probably lean towards Watson or Trubisky with a last-rounder versus spending a 12th or 13th on a name like Garoppolo or Glennon whom nobody can say for sure will even start a game next season.

A few other names I'm surprised were left on the board: Vereen (only 28, should still be PPR relevant somewhere), AlMo (likely 2nd-stringer with the league's best OL), Leonte Carroo (Stills likely lost to FA and Parker has shown nothing), Maxx Williams as mentioned above, maybe even Nelson Agholor. :scared:

Vereen is starting to get up there at 28 though and there's a lot of talent coming into the league this year.  I did consider him when I selected Langford.  Also consider AlfMo but there's a chance he doesn't even see the field in Dallas.

I actually wanted Carroo instead of a second PK but he wasn't on the draft list alphabetically when I looked.  Matter of fact, I looked at the list a couple f different ways and couldn't find him.  Figure one of you guys had taken him.

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On Friday, February 03, 2017 at 9:20 AM, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

QB. Brees....brock oz

Rb. Lamar miller. Jeremy hill. Fat rob kelley. Jamaal charles. Jacquizz rodgers.

Wr. Kelvin benjamin. Jordan mathews. Breshad perriman. Tyler boyd.  Kendall wright. Anquan boldin. Dede westbrook

Te. Gronk. Cj fedor

K seabass. Argayo.

Def. Minnesota. Cincy

 

Too many texans.........

At qb im set with drew.

At rb i like this core....im thinking jacquizz is a steal. Doug martin fell lout of favor...and is suspended. Plus the coach already said he wants quizz back. 

Wr....need a break here. Probably should of passed on j mathews. Lots of philly rumors of desean. Alshon...etc......perriman should have every opportunity. I expect kendall wright to sign somewhere good and be productive. 

 

Te gronk and a mini gronk

 

Kicker n def. Like the defense pair....cincy should rebound too much talent not t

Edited by bicycle_seat_sniffer

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On 2/13/2017 at 8:37 AM, Mr. Irrelevant said:

A few other names I'm surprised were left on the board: Vereen (only 28, should still be PPR relevant somewhere), AlMo (likely 2nd-stringer with the league's best OL), Leonte Carroo (Stills likely lost to FA and Parker has shown nothing), Maxx Williams as mentioned above, maybe even Nelson Agholor. :scared:

this mention kind of surprised me.....IMO Williams may be the 4th best TE on his own team....

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5 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

this mention kind of surprised me.....IMO Williams may be the 4th best TE on his own team....

:shrug: I mean, I had Vernon Davis (my TE3) and one other TE ahead of him on my list so it's not like I'm that high on him.

But I'm 95% certain one of Pitta or Watson is gone before camp, and Crockett Gilmore is the literal definition of JAG. All things considered there are worse hills to die on in fantasy than a young, highly-drafted TE2, behind either a one-year-wonder 37-year-old or a guy with 80-year-old hips, on a team that's dropped back to pass 1,400 times in the past two seasons.

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27 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

:shrug: I mean, I had Vernon Davis (my TE3) and one other TE ahead of him on my list so it's not like I'm that high on him.

But I'm 95% certain one of Pitta or Watson is gone before camp, and Crockett Gilmore is the literal definition of JAG. All things considered there are worse hills to die on in fantasy than a young, highly-drafted TE2, behind either a one-year-wonder 37-year-old or a guy with 80-year-old hips, on a team that's dropped back to pass 1,400 times in the past two seasons.

yeah gonna be tough to hold him in a dyno league. but I need TEs probably draft OJ or Njoku

 

 

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14 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

:shrug: I mean, I had Vernon Davis (my TE3) and one other TE ahead of him on my list so it's not like I'm that high on him.

But I'm 95% certain one of Pitta or Watson is gone before camp, and Crockett Gilmore is the literal definition of JAG. All things considered there are worse hills to die on in fantasy than a young, highly-drafted TE2, behind either a one-year-wonder 37-year-old or a guy with 80-year-old hips, on a team that's dropped back to pass 1,400 times in the past two seasons.

no worries....you just said you were surprised to see him go undrafted and I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him go undrafted in these....if somebody pulls the trigger late and hits on him...mad props to that owner....

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14 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

no worries....you just said you were surprised to see him go undrafted and I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him go undrafted in these....if somebody pulls the trigger late and hits on him...mad props to that owner....

Meta-observation: Not only are we running a 20-round draft seven months before the season and a 4-page discussion thread about it, but I'm about to make the 6th post in the thread referencing a guy who wasn't even one of the 320 players we drafted. :lmao: And yet I haven't rebalanced my 401(k) in two years. :unsure:

Anyway, he'd be like #35-36 on my list ... MFL is still down but off the top of my head I think I'd have picked him over Kendricks, Griffin, every rook not named O.J. Howard, and probably one or two other guys. So, yeah, in a league where ~40 TEs routinely get drafted I guess I am a bit surprised no one pulled the trigger on him.

FWIW, there were at least 6-7 RBs I was surprised to see go ahead of Vereen, even though I personally took a RB I had ranked lower with my 20th-rounder (b/c of his ST ability and higher ceiling) ... that probably doesn't make sense to most people but hope it helps explain what I mean by "surprised" in this context.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

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20 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Meta-observation: Not only are we running a 20-round draft seven months before the season and a 4-page discussion thread about it, but I'm about to make the 6th post in the thread referencing a guy who wasn't even one of the 320 players we drafted. :lmao: And yet I haven't rebalanced my 401(k) in two years. :unsure:

Anyway, he'd be like #35-36 on my list ... MFL is still down but off the top of my head I think I'd have picked him over Kendricks, Griffin, every rook not named O.J. Howard, and probably one or two other guys. So, yeah, in a league where ~40 TEs routinely get drafted I guess I am a bit surprised no one pulled the trigger on him.

FWIW, there were at least 6-7 RBs I was surprised to see go ahead of Vereen, even though I personally took a RB I had ranked lower with my 20th-rounder (b/c of his ST ability and higher ceiling) ... that probably doesn't make sense to most people but hope it helps explain what I mean by "surprised" in this context.

please stop making me feel more pathetic about myself than I already do.....

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Is MFL working for you guys? I was going to analyze my draft, but I don't remember it offhand. 

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Is MFL working for you guys? I was going to analyze my draft, but I don't remember it offhand. 

Others apparently got an e-mail notification from them (I didn't) that the site was still down and expected to be back up some time today. Based on my past experience with MFL, "some time today" might mean anywhere between "an hour from now" and "this time next week".

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MFL is finally working so I'll yammer on about my draft strategy for a bit, because offseason...

QB4 4.02 - Wilson

QB28 Cutler 10.02 

QB33 Glennon 15.15

I don't like to go QB early, but I figured I could get the guys I wanted later, so I bit on Wilson. I expect him to be better in 2017 because he'll be healthy and the line can't be worse. Since I took one early, I took the 2nd late, but didn't feel great about Cutler so I also drafted Glennon. This better be a position of strength for me after that investment. 

RB23 Dixon 5.15

RB24 Crowell 6.02

RB33 Abdullah 7.15

RB54 Thompson 11.15

RB73 Ellington 19.15

I love this group, particularly the top 3. I think Dixon shoots into the top 12 next year, but even if I'm wrong and he's stuck in a RBBC, he'll be a great "best ball" format player. Crowell was RB14 on a terrible team which can't get worse (right?). Abdullah looked good before injury and he played all 16 as a rookie, so hopefully he doesn't become injury prone. Thompson is just a decent PPR filler RB in case someone ahead of him gets injured. Ellington is a talented FA. I think he'll start for me a few times as long as he finds a decent home (I'm hoping for SD).

WR9 Keenan 1.15

WR11 AR15 2.02

WR45 Marvin 8.02

WR65 Wallace 12.02

WR87 T.Benjamin 17.15

WR101 Quick 20.02

Should be the core of my team, especially since I spent my first two picks on the position. I love Keenan in PPR and feel good about AR15 in best ball. In fact, I think WR2-6 are all great best ball players. I know Marvin fell off last year, but he was dealing with injuries and still put up 1000 yards in his 16 games (incl. playoff game). Wallace... I guess people expect them to bring in a FA or something. Not sure why I got him so cheap. He had a very nice connection with Flacco all year long. Benjamin will be fighting with Tyrell for targets, but should still be good for a few bombs. He also played injured last year. Quick is a FA, so hopefully signs with someone who can use him better than the Rams.

TE7 Eifert 3.15

TE21 Doyle 9.15

I felt like both of these guys were steals. I considered, for a second, taking Eifert at 2.02. Had no hope he'd make it back to me at 3.15. Doyle overtook Dwayne Allen last year to finish around TE12 and he's coming back this year. Should get more than last year's 75 targets. 

Gano, Sturgis - two guys with safe jobs

Car, Det - two decent D's

Maybe I'm drinking the kool aid but I don't see a weakness on this team. But that's the problem with early drafts - the weaknesses show up during the preseason injury reports. If Keenan and Eifert repeat 2016, I'm screwed. 

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If Cutler and Glennon start...should be solid at QB....guess I'm not as high on your RB's....Bal looking to bring somebody in at RB according to Harbaugh so RBBC very likely....Quick and Benjamin better help more than you think as you need 3 scores here a week and last 4 can disappear sometimes....as well as Robinson....Best case scenario Doyle resigns with Colts but word is he will test free agent market....Allen is locked up and I think they like Swoop...Doyle could still be decent elsewhere...backs are all in crowded situations or not on a team yet....in survivor this make work but don't see many immunities....good luck

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agreed with Ref here.  Ninja's team could be really good with the right breaks, but those RBs don't garner enthusiasm.  You could absolutely be right, they could all break out.  That's the fun part.  

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I didn't really expect anyone else to like those 3 guys since (1) I got them relatively cheap - if anyone liked them they could've had them and (2) despite all of them being young they basically get no love in the dynasty community, either. I get it with Abdullah - it's the what have you done for me lately treatment. His rookie year was disappointing, largely due to usage, and his 2nd year, while promising, was cut very short. But I don't see how people are sleeping on Dixon in PPR or Crowell after an RB14 season.

19 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

If Cutler and Glennon start...should be solid at QB....guess I'm not as high on your RB's....Bal looking to bring somebody in at RB according to Harbaugh so RBBC very likely....Quick and Benjamin better help more than you think as you need 3 scores here a week and last 4 can disappear sometimes....as well as Robinson....Best case scenario Doyle resigns with Colts but word is he will test free agent market....Allen is locked up and I think they like Swoop...Doyle could still be decent elsewhere...backs are all in crowded situations or not on a team yet....in survivor this make work but don't see many immunities....good luck

All signs point to at least one of them (Cutler/Glennon) starting. That's all I really need unless I get unlucky with byes.

I took Harbaugh's quote about bringing in a game breaker to mean someone like Dri Archer or Tyreek Hill - a bit player in the running game. I don't expect them to bring in a bell cow.

I think I've got four 1000 yard WRs next year, so I don't feel like I need a lot from Benjamin or Quick, but they are both capable deep threats. Benjamin played hurt last year and I'm a big believer in his talent after what he did in Cleveland. He made some plays last year. I think when healthy he'll produce, but due to competition for targets it'll be unpredicatable, which is fine in best ball. I'm a Quick believer as far as talent (I didn't think his 2014 hot start was an accident) and I don't think his situation could possibly get worse than last year. I haven't looked, but I bet he's got the most upside of anyone drafted after WR70.

I'll try to respond to some other people's analysis of their teams later this week to make the feedback reciprocal and to keep the discussions going.

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On 2/13/2017 at 10:33 AM, Stinkin Ref said:

4.14 Cam Newton QB8 CAR
9.03 Tony Romo QB26 DAL

1.03 Ezekiel Elliot RB3 DAL
5.03 Thomas Rawls RB19 SEA
7.03 Adrian Peterson RB29 MIN
13.03 James White RB NE

2.14 Doug Baldwin WR14 SEA
3.03 Tyreek Hill WR17 KC
6.14 Martavis Bryant WR39 PIT
11.03 Pierre Garcon WR FA
12.14 J.J. Nelson WR ARZ
17.03 Dorial Green-Beckham WR PHI
20.14 Brandon Coleman WR NOS

8.14 Martellus Bennett TE15 NE
10.14 O.J. Howard TE ROOK
19.03 A.J. Derby TE DEN

14.14 Brandon McManus PK DEN
15.03 Josh Lambo PK LAC

16.14 Miami Dolphins DST
18.14 New York Jets DST

Newton at 8 seems like a nice price, although with this being 6 pt PTD it diminishes his value a bit compared to 4 pt PTD leagues where his rushing TDs would give you a leg up. Romo was a very nice price. I was hoping to land him as my QB2. If I had, I probably wouldn't have drafted Glennon as my QB3... So I like this QB tandem. Easily a top half duo in my estimation.

Very nice RB squad. Remains to be seen how Peterson will hold up at his age or if he's even any good anymore, not to mention we've got no idea what team he'll end up on. 7.03 felt a little rich for all of his question marks, but you gotta take some shots to win this thing. White was pretty cheap and should be a nice best ball guy even if he cedes a lot of snaps to Dion. Overall, a very strong squad. Probably top 25%.

I'm a Baldwin fan - drafted him a bunch last year - but I feel like his targets will regress just enough that WR14 is his ceiling barring a crazy amount of TDs. Maybe I'm wrong. Given that there are no return yards in this league, Hill felt like a huge reach to me. Bryant should outperform his slot. I think Garcon will match his ADP, but I don't see much upside there as he's likely to go to a less favorable situation. Nelson going off the board before Jaron Brown didn't feel right. DGB is a nice dart throw. Overall, I think this will be the achilles heal of this team (mental note: use that phrase as a pun when evaluating team with Doctson).

I like Bennett, but he's hardly an anchor. Rookie TE was relatively expensive and high risk. Derby was a nice dart, but pretty risky. Granted I haven't looked at all the teams, but I'd say this squad is likely in the lower half of the league.

Decent team, but not as good as the teams I saw you draft last year (IIRC we were in a few of these together).

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On 2/23/2017 at 8:37 AM, FF Ninja said:

Newton at 8 seems like a nice price, although with this being 6 pt PTD it diminishes his value a bit compared to 4 pt PTD leagues where his rushing TDs would give you a leg up. Romo was a very nice price. I was hoping to land him as my QB2. If I had, I probably wouldn't have drafted Glennon as my QB3... So I like this QB tandem. Easily a top half duo in my estimation.

Very nice RB squad. Remains to be seen how Peterson will hold up at his age or if he's even any good anymore, not to mention we've got no idea what team he'll end up on. 7.03 felt a little rich for all of his question marks, but you gotta take some shots to win this thing. White was pretty cheap and should be a nice best ball guy even if he cedes a lot of snaps to Dion. Overall, a very strong squad. Probably top 25%.

I'm a Baldwin fan - drafted him a bunch last year - but I feel like his targets will regress just enough that WR14 is his ceiling barring a crazy amount of TDs. Maybe I'm wrong. Given that there are no return yards in this league, Hill felt like a huge reach to me. Bryant should outperform his slot. I think Garcon will match his ADP, but I don't see much upside there as he's likely to go to a less favorable situation. Nelson going off the board before Jaron Brown didn't feel right. DGB is a nice dart throw. Overall, I think this will be the achilles heal of this team (mental note: use that phrase as a pun when evaluating team with Doctson).

I like Bennett, but he's hardly an anchor. Rookie TE was relatively expensive and high risk. Derby was a nice dart, but pretty risky. Granted I haven't looked at all the teams, but I'd say this squad is likely in the lower half of the league.

Decent team, but not as good as the teams I saw you draft last year (IIRC we were in a few of these together).

Thanks Ninja....

as I mentioned, I will be all over Hill this year and based on last years performance, he really isn't that much of a reach in this format considering he finished as WR18 and I drafted him WR17....if you think he may even see more touches next year, which I do (considering he did most of his damage in the second half of the season when he started getting more love) then it's really not a reach at all....I don't care if people want to label him gadget or whatever, I could care less....I watched every snap of every Chief game last year and I expect to see him lined up at WR a TON next year....he will be on the field....and he has most certainly earned having the ball in his hands a bunch...

guess I like this team a little more than most and think decent isn't really a fair assessment, I would lean towards strong.....although you are correct I have drafted some killer teams in the past.....;)

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3 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Thanks Ninja....

as I mentioned, I will be all over Hill this year and based on last years performance, he really isn't that much of a reach in this format considering he finished as WR18 and I drafted him WR17....if you think he may even see more touches next year, which I do (considering he did most of his damage in the second half of the season when he started getting more love) then it's really not a reach at all....I don't care if people want to label him gadget or whatever, I could care less....I watched every snap of every Chief game last year and I expect to see him lined up at WR a TON next year....he will be on the field....and he has most certainly earned having the ball in his hands a bunch...

guess I like this team a little more than most and think decent isn't really a fair assessment, I would lean towards strong.....although you are correct I have drafted some killer teams in the past.....;)

Sorry, didn't see/remember the Hill discussion. My thoughts on Hill are basically that, sure, maybe he finished WR18 last year with half a dozen long TDs boosting his value, but I'll take the under on 9 TDs in 2017. And with the expectation of a healthy Maclin returning to the fold, I don't see a lot of room for Hill's targets to grow (let's also remember those targets are coming from Alex Smith). I think he's being massively overdrafted just like DeSean was after his season with all the long TDs. A handful of long TDs will always inflate value, but the inflation is exponential if it occurs within the first year or two of a guy's career. People view the previous season as some sort of baseline when it's almost always an outlier. In the 7 seasons since DeSean's breakout 10 TD season, he's has zero 10 TD seasons and only one season with more than 7 TDs. And he's probably a better WR than Hill will ever be.

I can't give a "strong" assessment given my perception of the WRs and TEs being below average. Maybe if I looked at all 16 teams I'd change my mind, but those two groups feel weak without much frame of reference. If Hill gets over 110 targets or 200+ yards on the ground and Bryant picks up where he left off, then I'll be forced to change my tune.

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4 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Sorry, didn't see/remember the Hill discussion. My thoughts on Hill are basically that, sure, maybe he finished WR18 last year with half a dozen long TDs boosting his value, but I'll take the under on 9 TDs in 2017. And with the expectation of a healthy Maclin returning to the fold, I don't see a lot of room for Hill's targets to grow (let's also remember those targets are coming from Alex Smith). I think he's being massively overdrafted just like DeSean was after his season with all the long TDs. A handful of long TDs will always inflate value, but the inflation is exponential if it occurs within the first year or two of a guy's career. People view the previous season as some sort of baseline when it's almost always an outlier. In the 7 seasons since DeSean's breakout 10 TD season, he's has zero 10 TD seasons and only one season with more than 7 TDs. And he's probably a better WR than Hill will ever be.

I can't give a "strong" assessment given my perception of the WRs and TEs being below average. Maybe if I looked at all 16 teams I'd change my mind, but those two groups feel weak without much frame of reference. If Hill gets over 110 targets or 200+ yards on the ground and Bryant picks up where he left off, then I'll be forced to change my tune.

Guess I've never really been good at predicting regression and I don't compare players in different situations a ton too each other....anything djax has done or not done really matters very little in my assessment of Hill or any other player....and I also don't really factor in how other players were drafted in previous years after having good, or bad years for that matter.....I can get on board with the other things you said regarding why you don't expect Hill to remain in the top 20 WR.....but the djax comparison stuff is just noise to me....don't get me wrong I can understand why people will think guys like Michael Thomas will continue his rookie breakout and guys like Hill won't...basically people think what Hill did was fluky....I don't, I think he is one of the more dangerous players currently in the NFL and that his touches in the offense will increase....I actually think his explosiveness is a few levels above the likes of djax....and in this best ball format I'll take Hill all day as a WR2...there was nothing really fluky about his long TD's (i.e.: busted coverage or something)...IMO it was talent.....the second half of the season he was WR4 in this format....I'm not sure where him being drafted would feel right to you....but I doubt he was making it back to me with my next picks...I guess I'll be massively over drafting the #### out of this guy in these leagues and in Anarchy....I hope the guys here in this forum continue to value him the way you do....

good stuff ninja....good luck

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11 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Guess I've never really been good at predicting regression and I don't compare players in different situations a ton too each other....anything djax has done or not done really matters very little in my assessment of Hill or any other player....and I also don't really factor in how other players were drafted in previous years after having good, or bad years for that matter.....I can get on board with the other things you said regarding why you don't expect Hill to remain in the top 20 WR.....but the djax comparison stuff is just noise to me....don't get me wrong I can understand why people will think guys like Michael Thomas will continue his rookie breakout and guys like Hill won't...basically people think what Hill did was fluky....I don't, I think he is one of the more dangerous players currently in the NFL and that his touches in the offense will increase....I actually think his explosiveness is a few levels above the likes of djax....and in this best ball format I'll take Hill all day as a WR2...there was nothing really fluky about his long TD's (i.e.: busted coverage or something)...IMO it was talent.....the second half of the season he was WR4 in this format....I'm not sure where him being drafted would feel right to you....but I doubt he was making it back to me with my next picks...I guess I'll be massively over drafting the #### out of this guy in these leagues and in Anarchy....I hope the guys here in this forum continue to value him the way you do....

good stuff ninja....good luck

I know DeSean is just one example, so it may not mean much to you, but he's the only example of a guy with a bunch of long TDs I could think of on the spot. The basic premise I'm throwing out there is that TDs are fluky and long TDs are even more so (and you've been playing long enough to know that - so I don't see how you can say you don't think what he did last year was fluky). I rarely draft guys coming off large TD totals because they are overdrafted, but it stands to reason guys that benefited from the yardage AND the TDs are waaay overdrafted the next year. Probability says they'll take hits in both categories the next year and that makes for a bust. 

Don't get me wrong... it's no fluke that Hill was the one to get the long TDs - he's certainly got the requisite skills, but even the most explosive players have ups and downs because 16 games is a tiny, tiny sample. It feels like a long season, so it's easy to forget, but 16 games is minuscule. And there's only about 11 minutes of football (and 65 offensive plays) in each one of those games. 

This was the first mock I've participated in, so I can't say where he would fall, but my gut says he'd have been there for you a round later. I agree best ball is the format for him, but we're still talking PPR and he's raw as a WR. Just curious, what do you expect his utilization to be next year compared to this year? With Maclin back (and healthy), do you expect his targets to grow? He got 55 targets in the 2nd half of the season when he was WR4 as you say, but Maclin only got 20 targets during that time (4 games played).

FWIW, I'm not touching Michael Thomas at his ADP, either.

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Well you have more data on Hill

4.3 and WR24 in wsl2. So if you like him, you had to reach a little. 

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12 hours ago, Crippler said:

Well you have more data on Hill

4.3 and WR24 in wsl2. So if you like him, you had to reach a little. 

In a 16 teamer yeah.....considering that was me as well I guess his current adp is 20.5 with a "ref massively overdarafting" factor of lets say maybe 15 WR...so lets say from now on he shouldnt go off the board sooner than WR35....I can live with that and might consider drafting him in the 5th round from now on which is about where he he would go at WR35 in a 16 team league....so cool lets all agree WR35 is ADP moving forward.... 

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