Stinkin Ref

2017 WSL1 Discussion Thread.......

189 posts in this topic

15 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I know DeSean is just one example, so it may not mean much to you, but he's the only example of a guy with a bunch of long TDs I could think of on the spot. The basic premise I'm throwing out there is that TDs are fluky and long TDs are even more so (and you've been playing long enough to know that - so I don't see how you can say you don't think what he did last year was fluky). I rarely draft guys coming off large TD totals because they are overdrafted, but it stands to reason guys that benefited from the yardage AND the TDs are waaay overdrafted the next year. Probability says they'll take hits in both categories the next year and that makes for a bust. 

Don't get me wrong... it's no fluke that Hill was the one to get the long TDs - he's certainly got the requisite skills, but even the most explosive players have ups and downs because 16 games is a tiny, tiny sample. It feels like a long season, so it's easy to forget, but 16 games is minuscule. And there's only about 11 minutes of football (and 65 offensive plays) in each one of those games. 

This was the first mock I've participated in, so I can't say where he would fall, but my gut says he'd have been there for you a round later. I agree best ball is the format for him, but we're still talking PPR and he's raw as a WR. Just curious, what do you expect his utilization to be next year compared to this year? With Maclin back (and healthy), do you expect his targets to grow? He got 55 targets in the 2nd half of the season when he was WR4 as you say, but Maclin only got 20 targets during that time (4 games played).

FWIW, I'm not touching Michael Thomas at his ADP, either.

I'm kinda hesitant to keep this going cause all I think is happening is I'm bringing more attention to him....in this forum/drafts...lol...and I rather just keep getting him where I have been (or later if possible) and go on about my business...but he had 85 touches last year on offense and scored 9 TD's with IIRC none of them based on blown coverage etc. I saw all of them....he also added 3 TD's on special teams which we get credit for now on 48 touches....I'm sorry but last year he was pretty much a plug and play starter the last half of the season in 10-12 team redraft leagues let alone a 16 team best ball league....I expect his production to continue as is at an absolute minimum let alone if he gets more touches....I know that we have sat on our sofas before and wondered why certain guys don't get more touches and have been baffled by coaches not giving the guy the ball...but I think he is another level from the djax, spiller, etc...so yeah I am banking on Reid putting this guy in the slot for slants or more runs, etc....cause it only makes sense....I think he can be productive outside as well....matchup nightmare for even the best DB's...hell I'd line this guy up at RB in the red zone...I also think in drafts he is one of those guys that owners that don't get him soon enough will talk crap about because they were hoping to get him later...draft him based on expected regression if you want....I'm just not gonna be that guy.... I think Reid is sitting at home right now thinking about how to get him more touches and I am drafting him accordingly....let alone the fact that he was in fact WR18 in this format last year....please everybody value him as WR35 and lets move on....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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7 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I'm kinda hesitant to keep this going cause all I think is happening is I'm bringing more attention to him....in this forum/drafts...lol...

Haha, well, let me ease your mind a bit... I think 16 is the absolute most people who will read pages 4-5 of this thread and of the people who participate in these drafts, most of them are not going to be swayed on their targets for the first few rounds. If anyone ever drafts him higher than WR17 in one of your other leagues, let me know and I'll issue a formal apology for making you inadvertently hype him in the WSL1 discussion thread :P

So you keep referencing his 2nd half when Maclin was hurt and yet you "expect his production to continue as is at an absolute minimum let alone if he gets more touches" despite Maclin being back. Add to the fact that he put up 222 yards and 3 TDs on 16 carries in that half season. I'm taking the under on 222 yards and 3 TDs from him (rushing) in 16 games next year, much less 444 and 6 TDs, which would be "continuing as is". When a guy does something like that, it's not just you and Reid thinking about him in the offseason, it's also opposing DCs. He's not going to be catching anyone by surprise this coming season. 

If you take away the rushing TDs, which are likely to evaporate, and give him his second half receiving targets/stats for 16 games (which are unlikely when Maclin returns), you end up with 78 rec for 718 yards and 4 TDs. Add in maybe 150 rushing yards and 1 TD and you're still a far cry from WR17 numbers. I'm definitely not a guy talking crap about him bc I wanted him later. He's pretty much off my radar due to expected ADP. I'm in more of a "watch in awe as he's overdrafted" mode.

FYI, I just watched his highlights and his TD rec against the Colts was definitely busted coverage. His two long rushing TDs were a product of his speed for sure, but he basically just followed his blocks. Ah, I guess those highlights triggered it... another example just came to me... Chris Johnson. Everyone expected those long TDs to be there after his 2nd year. He went from seven 50+ yard TDs down to 1 the next year, 0 the year after, 3 the year after that, and 1 in his final year as a workhorse. And he had over 300 touches in all those season. As a rookie he had 2 on 293 touches. And if you try to tell me Hill is more talented than Chris Johnson in his prime, I'm going to call you crazy.

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seeing as it is early March....I guess we can just agree to disagree on this one....I think that will be pretty common in discussions about Hill....I do realize more will lean in your direction and that I am kind of on my own here....maybe it is my first rodeo.......Maclin healthy/not healthy has very little to do with my position on Hill....quite honestly it has more to do with the simple fact that I believe he will see significantly more snaps on offense than he did last year which will translate into more touches....and I've seen what he has done on limited touches...let alone a significant bump in touches...even if he doesn't get the ball, his mere presence on the field should be a no brainer for the coaching staff....teams will have to account for him helping open things up elsewhere....I would not be surprised to see him playing starter type snaps next year.....slot/WR2/in the backfield, whatever....teams aren't going to be scared by the Albert Wilson's and Chris Conley's of the world....so why would you put them on the field over Hill even if the play is designed to feature someone else...believe me I have swung and missed on many player predictions in the past....and this could be another one....but dude should be doing commercials for Jimmy John's....

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Nice when your TE3 drafted in round 17 ends up on the NE offense with Tom Brady as his QB.

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Nice when your TE3 drafted in round 17 ends up on the NE offense with Tom Brady as his QB.

Even better when you get em in the 18th.....

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8 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Nice when your TE3 drafted in round 17 ends up on the NE offense with Tom Brady as his QB.

Watch out for Doyle now! Going to look like a steal at TE21.

Baltimore picked up Wallace's option, so he was a cheap add at WR65.

...But Dixon suspended 4 games. Abdullah and Crowell (who both got OL additions today) better carry me for 4 games.

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On 2/23/2017 at 8:37 AM, FF Ninja said:

 

I like Bennett, but he's hardly an anchor. Rookie TE was relatively expensive and high risk. Derby was a nice dart, but pretty risky. Granted I haven't looked at all the teams, but I'd say this squad is likely in the lower half of the league.

Bennett probably just creeped into the top 7-8 range....one could make a case top 5...if you leave Brady I'm not sure there is a better landing spot than Rodgers....Howard and Derby gravy at this point....

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On 3/11/2017 at 9:40 PM, Stinkin Ref said:

Bennett probably just creeped into the top 7-8 range....one could make a case top 5...if you leave Brady I'm not sure there is a better landing spot than Rodgers....Howard and Derby gravy at this point....

Yeah, I fully agree*. But I also think you'd agree that was lucky AF. Nobody had him pegged to end up in GB. In fact, all signs pointed to Cook returning. I really wanted Cook, glad I didn't get him!!

*Rodgers #1 TE >> Brady's #2 TE.

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11 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Yeah, I fully agree*. But I also think you'd agree that was lucky AF. Nobody had him pegged to end up in GB. In fact, all signs pointed to Cook returning. I really wanted Cook, glad I didn't get him!!

*Rodgers #1 TE >> Brady's #2 TE.

If luck wasn't part of fantasy football....I probably wouldn't ever lose.....

 

feel free to use that.....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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12 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

If luck wasn't part of fantasy football....I probably wouldn't ever lose.....

feel free to use that.....

 :lol: Haha, I like it.

I expect Bennett's ADP to rise dramatically in the next set of mocks (SSL?). I'd definitely put him in my crowded non-Gronk 2nd tier. He's got as good a shot as anyone to finish TE2. Cook will probably fall off the map. I read they offered him more than Bennett. Can't be true, right?? Would be one of the worst cases of overplaying your hand in recent memory.

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Stewart signs a one year extension.  That may have saved my bacon at RB.

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:penalty:.....AFTER FURTHER REVIEW……bye weeks and latest news


4.14 Cam Newton QB8 CAR (11)
9.03 Tony Romo QB26 (1-17)

Update: I am in big trouble here.  I guess maybe it’s good that Cam will play for 10 straight weeks, but from what I have heard people say in the past, not sure of the actual data, but it’s better to have an early bye if you are flying solo somewhere.  I guess more chances of somebody laying an egg to help you advance or something. Winning immunity week 9 would be nice. 

1.03 Ezekiel Elliot RB3 DAL (6)
5.03 Thomas Rawls RB19 SEA (6)
7.03 Adrian Peterson RB29  (?)
13.03 James White RB58 NE (9)

Update: Loved this group initially but have taken on some recent challenges.  Bad enough that Lacy joined the mix in SEA, but now Rawls shares a bye with Zeke. I’m not sold on Lacy being the guy but we will see.  Need ADP to sign and be a stud for sure now, or what the hell, just go to NE and join that mess. Luckily sometimes you can ride a solid RB1 in these.

2.14 Doug Baldwin WR14 SEA (6)
3.03 Tyreek Hill WR17 KC (10)
6.14 Martavis Bryant WR39 PIT (9)
11.03 Pierre Garcon WR60 SF (11)
12.14 J.J. Nelson WR73 ARZ (8)
17.03 Dorial Green-Beckham WR86 PHI (10)
20.14 Brandon Coleman WR106 NOS (5)

Update: The bye week gods were kind here but my depth is taking some damage. DGB probably a wasted pick. Fitz returning hurts Nelson. Garcon has QB issues.  Coleman lost Cooks which was nice but gained Ginn, guess I would actually look at that as a slight bump for Coleman. Need Bryant to assume back his role in a big way.

8.14 Martellus Bennett TE15 GB (8)
10.14 O.J. Howard TE25ROOK (?)
19.03 A.J. Derby TE36 DEN (5)

Update: Probably couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot for Bennett, might have snagged some serious value there as he should out produce TE15 pretty easily. Howard should play immediately and hopefully lands somewhere where he can make a fantasy impact. I now expect DEN to draft a TE fairly high in a TE friendly draft, so the Derby dart may have missed the board. 

14.14 Brandon McManus PK15 DEN (5)
15.03 Josh Lambo PK19 LAC (9)

16.14 Miami Dolphins DST16 (11)
18.14 New York Jets DST30 (11)

Update: “So generally not a fan of players in the same division at these spots due to potential bye week issues, but you really never know what you are going to get from the NFL anymore, so I just went with who I wanted.”….. well got caught with the division double up on my DST, which also happens to be when Cam is on his bye.

Overall: bummer….thought I would be pretty solid, but now an easy out as soon as Cam ####s the bed….good luck boys...:banned:

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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On 2/12/2017 at 2:36 PM, FUBAR said:

Roster

Bortles, Blake JAC QB

Mariota, Marcus TEN QB

well that was a mistake.  Week 8 gonna suck. In my main league I have Mariota and Eli, week 8 isn't kind. 

Gurley, Todd RAM RB

Hunt, Kareem ROOK  RB

Hyde, Carlos SFO RB

Mixon, Joe ROOK RB

Zenner, Zach DET RB

obviously we don't know about Hunt and Mixon yet, but looks decent for now

Beckham, Odell NYG WR

Gordon, Josh CLE WR

Kupp, Cooper ROOK WR

Lee, Marqise JAC WR

Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR

Meredith, Cameron CHI WR

Williams, Mike ROOK WR

Another top player with a week 8 bye.  Otherwise okay. 

Barnidge, Gary CLE TE

Walker, Delanie TEN TE

again, damn you week 8.

Gould, Robbie NYG PK

Hauschka, Steven SEA PK

not that Gould matters much but seriously? again. 

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def

Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

Even my defenses share a bye.  But at least it's not week 8.

Two rookie running backs, two rookie receivers, two NFC west RBs, two Titans, two Jaguars, two old tight ends, two NFC south defenses, two kickers, two guys with disciplinary problems (in the past). :towelwave:

I'm screwed so hard I had to change my name. Maybe I'll get the top score in week 7? 

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On 2/13/2017 at 11:56 AM, FUBAR said:
On 2/13/2017 at 10:33 AM, Stinkin Ref said:

 

Update: So generally not a fan of players in the same division at these spots due to potential bye week issues, but you really never know what you are going to get from the NFL anymore...

That's an interesting comment.  In 2016, only week 9 had 2 teams in the same division on bye - and seemingly half the league was out that week.  But then in 2015, 5 weeks had two teams from the same division on bye.  Haven't done the math but it seems no more likely than any random two teams sharing a bye.  

If the Jags and Titans share a bye I'm probably screwed but that's true for any qb combo. 

Stinkin Ref ;) you were right. 

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On 2/13/2017 at 10:15 AM, Mr. Irrelevant said:

:wall:Hey, if we look hard enough maybe we'll eventually find someone in this league who won't have to ride without a QB for a week.

I guess the good news is that Carr and Wentz are the only two guys on my roster with a bye that week. Of course Week 10 is pretty late in the season to survive with a zero at your highest-scoring position, so it looks like my strategy will be the standard "hope I score enough in Week 9 to land immunity".

But hey, free agency was pretty kind to me:

  • Lacy to SEA - neutral for his fortunes (competition is meh but so is their OL), great for my team's. Unless the Pack have someone like McCaffrey fall to them there's every chance they'll open TC with Montgomery as their top backfield option. :thumbup:
  • Cooks to NE - tough to call moving to a team where he'll be the #1 option for Tom Brady a downgrade ... but ... NE was only 23rd in pass attempts last season, a full 125 behind the Saints. Some of that was probably 'chicken or the egg' since their options were so limited, but I see Cooks climbing the ADP ranks and unless Edelman gets injured I think he could disappoint folks who take him as a WR1.
  • D-Jax to TB - well, he certainly isn't going to be that team's #1, but he ought to still be good at doing D-Jax things and with a QB every bit as good as the one he left. Net neutral I guess.
  • Pryor to WAS - :thumbup:, hate it as an Eagles fan but this should make him well worth the WR27 price tag.
Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

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3 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

4.14 Cam Newton QB8 CAR (11)
9.03 Tony Romo QB26 (1-17)

Update: I am in big trouble here.  I guess maybe it’s good that Cam will play for 10 straight weeks, but from what I have heard people say in the past, not sure of the actual data, but it’s better to have an early bye if you are flying solo somewhere.  I guess more chances of somebody laying an egg to help you advance or something. Winning immunity week 9 would be nice. 

Hey, the only one of these survivors I've ever won was last year's MBSL, and I did it with my only functioning QB (Rivers) on a week 11 bye ... and without immunity.

No idea how, probably just blind luck, but it can be done! :drive:

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On April 21, 2017 at 2:26 PM, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Hey, the only one of these survivors I've ever won was last year's MBSL, and I did it with my only functioning QB (Rivers) on a week 11 bye ... and without immunity.

No idea how, probably just blind luck, but it can be done! :drive:

I did study a few years ago and you were no more likely to get eliminated with a zero at QB for a single week than if you had a QB starting for that particular year.  Limited data set and the standard statistical disclaimers.

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On 2/12/2017 at 2:36 PM, FUBAR said:

Roster

Bortles, Blake JAC QB

Mariota, Marcus TEN QB

Gurley, Todd RAM RB

Hunt, Kareem ROOK  RB

Hyde, Carlos SFO RB

Mixon, Joe ROOK RB

Zenner, Zach DET RB

Beckham, Odell NYG WR

Gordon, Josh CLE WR

Kupp, Cooper ROOK WR

Lee, Marqise JAC WR

Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR

Meredith, Cameron CHI WR

Williams, Mike ROOK WR

Barnidge, Gary CLE TE

Walker, Delanie TEN TE

Gould, Robbie NYG PK

Hauschka, Steven SEA PK

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def

Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

Two rookie running backs, two rookie receivers, two NFC west RBs, two Titans, two Jaguars, two old tight ends, two NFC south defenses, two kickers, two guys with disciplinary problems (in the past). :towelwave:

Hunt landed in a prime spot with the Chiefs, Mixon in Cincy could be good but isn't great.  

I like kupp and Mike Williams in LA. 

Mariota added two nice pieces with Davis and Taylor, adding Fournette should help bortles as will cam.  

No idea what's going on with barnidge now but assuming he signs somewhere he'll be fine. 

Overall day 2, and 1 were good for this squad.

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Looks like Jaron Brown will be the extent of my WR core in week 5.  Better pull off an immunity in wk 4 otherwise it will be a short year.

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Mine looks good and like where Rookies landed for all three. Only bad news is a PK on same bye week. 

Overall looking solid if I can piece together 3 WR scores each week. Well really 1 as Cooper/-Sanders is solid start. 

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PLAYER 2016 YTD PTS BYE
Carr, Derek OAK QB (Q) 381.75 10
Wentz, Carson PHI QB 317.80 10
Ervin, Tyler HOU RB (Q) 5.10 7
Gillislee, Mike NEP RB 125.70 9
Johnson, David ARI RB 413.80 8
Lacy, Eddie SEA RB (Q) 42.80 6
Montgomery, Ty GBP RB (Q) 142.50 8
Cooks, Brandin NEP WR 246.30 9
Davis, Corey TEN WR (Q) - 8
Funchess, Devin CAR WR 86.10 11
Jackson, DeSean TBB WR 180.50 11
Pryor, Terrelle WAS WR (Q) 213.85 5
Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (Q) 2.50 9
Davis, Vernon WAS TE 158.30 5
McDonald, Vance SFO TE (Q) 111.10 11
Reed, Jordan WAS TE 236.60 5
Forbath, Kai MIN PK 56.00 9
Lutz, Wil NOS PK 133.00 5
Broncos, Denver DEN Def 142.00 5
Colts, Indianapolis IND Def 87.00 11

MFL '17 finally gets around to consulting the team depth charts and moves Montgomery to RB. Bills backup Mike Gillislee unexpectedly becomes potential Patriots lead back Mike Gillislee. And Corey Davis gets drafted to be the clear apparent #1 guy with Mariota in TEN. :thumbup::thumbup:

My RB corps went from "potential tire fire" to "strength of my team" in remarkably short order. If I can get a couple of my young WRs to step up their game this coming season, I like my odds.

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18 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

roster adjustment for the rookies have been made......please check your rosters for accuracy...

we should be good to go....

you can check on the new league here

http://www66.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/59337#0

 

I actually took marshawn lynch as my placeholder player.  wish you had not adjusted mine

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****. They moved Ellington to WR. Instead of being my 5th RB, he's now my 7th WR. And I really thought Cutler would latch on somewhere. Two wasted picks. Hopefully Glennon hangs onto his job through Wilson's week 6 bye.

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I still have Roddy White on my roster....he should be DeDe Westrbook WR - JAX

Nevermind I looked at the 2016 homepage

Edited by bicycle_seat_sniffer

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On 4/26/2017 at 9:17 AM, BassNBrew said:

I did study a few years ago and you were no more likely to get eliminated with a zero at QB for a single week than if you had a QB starting for that particular year.  Limited data set and the standard statistical disclaimers.

How about with a zero at QB, TE, your first two picks, and only Maclin, and Mike Williams at wr? 

Really going to need immunity that week. 

But my RBs look really good so far with Hunt, Gurley, mixon, and Hyde. 

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So who is missing the most players? I've spread mine out, one per position: Allen Robinson, Dixon, Sturgis, Eifert, and now Glennon benched to round it out.

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In my home leagues I like to take some time after the season and go back and revisit my drafts to see what I could have done better, where I was good/bad/ugly…where I planted my flag on a guy and was right….and where I swung and missed.  And try to go back and look at my rationale at the time and see how it panned out.  Below is my WSL 1 team from last year, I haven’t ever really done this for these Mock Draft Forum leagues, but had some time to kill today. Obviously this team was drafted before the draft and FA so it’s probably not the greatest measure and doesn’t mean as much as drafts closer to August but can still probably learn something. Filled in where the guy ended up at the end of the season. 

4.14 Cam Newton QB8 CAR…….4
9.03 Tony Romo QB26 DAL……..DNP

Cam...I was hoping for a bounce back season and I got it but the value really wasn’t that great even though he outperformed his draft position. Mostly because two of the 7 guys drafted ahead of him were Luck and Rodgers. Brees and Ryan were the only two QB’s who played all year that Newton outperformed and who were drafted ahead of him. The 4th QB was drafted at 4.02 (Wilson). 

Romo obviously a complete swing and miss and I now realize a situation I probably don’t want to mess with at such an important position.  The very next pick after my Romo pick..Jared Goff….ouch. 

1.03 Ezekiel Elliot RB3 DAL…..12
5.03 Thomas Rawls RB19 SEA….88
7.03 Adrian Peterson RB29 MIN…..61
13.03 James White RB58 NE…..38

2.14 Doug Baldwin WR14 SEA….14
3.03 Tyreek Hill WR17 KC…..9
6.14 Martavis Bryant WR39 PIT……50
11.03 Pierre Garcon WR60 FA……75
12.14 J.J. Nelson WR73 ARZ….69
17.03 Dorial Green-Beckham WR86 PHI….DNP
20.14 Brandon Coleman WR106 NOS…..80

8.14 Martellus Bennett TE15 NE…..33
10.14 O.J. Howard TE25 ROOK……23
19.03 A.J. Derby TE36 DEN……39

14.14 Brandon McManus PK15 DEN….19
15.03 Josh Lambo PK19 LAC…..24
16.14 Miami Dolphins DST16….25
18.14 New York Jets DST30…..30

I was going to go into more detail ,…but looking back it’s pretty obvious that I just sucked last year.  Zeke’s suspension hurt, Rawls ended up being like the 6th best back on his team, ADP a swing and miss. Bryant and Bennett a huge disappointment across the board for me in many leagues.  No picks provided real value outside of Hill and James White and you really can’t win these things if you don’t have a good amount of players finishing at least a little above their draft position and you probably need a few that drastically outperform their draft position. I’m actually really surprised by how bad I did here and I think the biggest things I take away is I think you can’t have questions at QB, stay away from potential knuckleheads like Zeke, Bryant, DGB, and I may start making age a bigger factor than I normally do. 

Good (somewhat): 8

Bad: 5

Ugly: 7

:banned:

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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