CabinFever
Footballguy
Was having a discussion today with an owner in our PPR dynasty league. Just curious what pick you guys think Henry is worth if he were in this years class. I said about 1.4, does that sound about right?
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Derrick Henry rookie pick value? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter CabinFever
- Start date
CabinFever
Footballguy
1.2-1.4 more realistic?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So it's basically what picks would you trade for Henry.
Before knowing where everyone lands, me personally...
1.01 - No
1.02 - No
1.03 - Maybe
1.04 - Maybe
1.05 - Maybe
1.06 - Yes
I'm not that big on the WRs this year, and they will probably go 1.03-1.04. Though I'm still not sure I'd give those up for Henry as I think their value could go way up if they're drafted into a good spot like Tenn/Phi (which seems likely). 1.05 is still a maybe in case one of the 2nd tier RBs gets drafted into a great spot (Ind/GB).
Before knowing where everyone lands, me personally...
1.01 - No
1.02 - No
1.03 - Maybe
1.04 - Maybe
1.05 - Maybe
1.06 - Yes
I'm not that big on the WRs this year, and they will probably go 1.03-1.04. Though I'm still not sure I'd give those up for Henry as I think their value could go way up if they're drafted into a good spot like Tenn/Phi (which seems likely). 1.05 is still a maybe in case one of the 2nd tier RBs gets drafted into a great spot (Ind/GB).
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
He's got the talent, will he get the opportunity? I'd like to see him as "the guy" somewhere.
A new "Eddie George" would electrify that fan base.
A new "Eddie George" would electrify that fan base.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
I think the conversation starts at 1.04 but I haven't looked at this class.
But Henry we already know has talent. A rookie we have to gamble on their talent AND opportunity.
But Henry we already know has talent. A rookie we have to gamble on their talent AND opportunity.
squistion
Footballguy
From what I have seen from trades (not on this forum) the 1.04 does sound about right.
I see this very different then you, and you seem to see it like the majority which I guess makes me the dissenter.
I don't know he has talent. Put another way, I don't know he has talent level above the guy I comped him to entering the league, which is Brandon Jacobs. I don't know he has talent to be every week productive feature back, I just don't. Not trying to argue to argue, this is what my eyes and even stats are telling me so far.
In terms of opportunity. I know his is bad next season. At least with a rookie I got a fighting chance he's not blocked by Demarco or relegated by him for a year. And other than Fournette, and if you have him that high Foreman, the top RB's in this class are all exceptional receivers. Cook, McCaffery, Mixon and Kamara and one of the plus things of receiving RB's is they don't need to be feature backs to return high value. Now Henry's opportunity in 2018 might be golden, but that is not totally certain either but I'd agree he's a safer bet for 2018 opportunity than most random rookie RB's and I do view Tennessee as a very RB friendly offense.
This all assumes PPR, I don't play in non-PPR but would likely look much more fondly on Henry vs some of those receiving rookie RB's if I did.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I would trade pick 5 for him if i had it (maybe 3 or 4 also)
I drafted him at pick 4 last year (lesser class, I know).
Not only do we know he has talent (lotta guys have that) but he has shown to be a capable RB (not a lot of guys show that).
I personally see a golden opportunity on the horizon for him. An aging, slowed, currently injured and maybe about to have surgery and overworked Demarco Murray stands in front of Henry and every week RB1 status.
He is not a "bad" receiving back. I think he had 15 catches last year, and that was NOT 3rd down RB type catches. 15 catches with very limited snaps would lead me to believe they would use him often enough in the passing game where he would not be like Alfred Morris used to be with maybe 1 catch per game.
Even if Murray is 100% healthy this year, I think common sense tells us Henry will see more work than he did in 2016. I personally do not see Murray staying 100% healthy, and even if he did, I don't see him running as well as he did last year.
I drafted him at pick 4 last year (lesser class, I know).
Not only do we know he has talent (lotta guys have that) but he has shown to be a capable RB (not a lot of guys show that).
I personally see a golden opportunity on the horizon for him. An aging, slowed, currently injured and maybe about to have surgery and overworked Demarco Murray stands in front of Henry and every week RB1 status.
He is not a "bad" receiving back. I think he had 15 catches last year, and that was NOT 3rd down RB type catches. 15 catches with very limited snaps would lead me to believe they would use him often enough in the passing game where he would not be like Alfred Morris used to be with maybe 1 catch per game.
Even if Murray is 100% healthy this year, I think common sense tells us Henry will see more work than he did in 2016. I personally do not see Murray staying 100% healthy, and even if he did, I don't see him running as well as he did last year.
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The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Fournette and Cook for sure more valuable. after that could see some people valuing Henry next. If Mike Williams goes top 10 in NFL draft then he's clearly above him too.
So anywhere from 1.03 - 1.06 sounds about right.
So anywhere from 1.03 - 1.06 sounds about right.
FUBAR
Footballguy
We were pretty happy with Murray last year. But we started to see Henry more towards the end of the year. Barring injury, it looks like full blown rbbc next year. Keeping them both fresh is good for the team but not ff in the short term. But that short term also keeps Henry's price down.
I think this is about right. you could probably trade picks 7-10 for him when on the clock or just after the nfl draft, when rookie hype is at its best.
He was traded in late Nov' in one of my leagues for the following:
- Team A gave up Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB;Brown, Corey CAR WR;Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def; Year 2017 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team A
Team B gave up Charles, Jamaal KCC RB;Henry, Derrick TEN RB;Harvin, Percy BUF WR; Year 2017 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team B;Year 2017 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team C
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gotta love when the worst teams trade their future 1sts. A surefire way to build a winner.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I own Henry and it would take one of the top4 picks to get him very likely, however I've scouted all the RB's on my list (15 RB's on my list) and I'd probably take at least 4 of those over Henry so actual value around 1.05-1.08 probably. Depending on landing spot and combine performances and all, but we're talking about what we know right now.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Top shelf offensive line + ascending QB + generally weak division + coach who wants to run + older RB in place. You are getting a value here in Henry.
Ceiling is a slightly poor man's Ezekiel Elliott.
Ceiling is a slightly poor man's Ezekiel Elliott.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Showing a few flashes as a rookie is far from proven. If it were Devontae Booker would be a top 5 running back right now.
msommer
Footballguy
DeMarco Murray is on essentially a two year contract with team options for more. They will run him into the ground and have Henry to pick up the slack. He'll get his in 2018, latest, barring injury to either back
msommer
Footballguy
thatguy
Footballguy
I was going to say this was a terrible comparison and that Henry was far superior to Booker (which would be the obvious takeaway if you looked at their numbers in a vacuum). But taking into consideration Henry was running behind one of the best lines in the league and Booker one of the worst, it's not all that far fetched (not that Booker is top 5 but that Henry isn't necessarily vastly superior). Makes me think Booker might be worth going after. I'm sure a lot of his owners are way down on him. Heard the other day he had the same yards after contact as Murray and several other top RB's, even more impressive considering first contact on the majority of his carries came before he had time to generate any forward momentum.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
My point in bringing up Booker was that he played well when he was behind Anderson, similar to the way that Henry played well behind Murray. His YPC in that role was actually right in line with Henry's if I recall. Obviously when Booker got the lead role it was an entirely different story. If looking good as a backup were "proven" then Booker was proven, and would have run with the featured role and everyone would be slobbering over him now. But similar to Henry, his time as a backup or 1b player far from proved anything other than he was a good backup. Booker joined the list of about 1000 guys that looked good in limited time but not so much getting all the work. We have no idea if Henry will be just another notch on that belt as well.
You also bring up a fair point about the line. Good lines don't typically stay together for long and there is no guarantee the Titans will still be strong there when Henry gets the job. This seems especially important for Henry who is good once he gets up to steam, but not so hot when he has to make someone miss in the backfield.
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msommer
Footballguy
Conklin, Jones and Tretola are under contract through 2019. Lewan will have his fifth year option picked up so he is a Titan at least through 2018, he will get an extension though
Spain, Kline and Kelly are all there through 2017. Schwenke is UFA, as is Warmack and Bell
So that's starting LT, RT, C and backup LG for the next three years. Pretty sure they will try to extend some or all of Spain, Kline and Kelly. The line should be solid for the next three years at least. 2018 is when Henry realistically has a chance to unseat Murray, barring injury.
Just because Murray leaves, does not mean that the coach does not keep his RBBC mentality either. Has 2 or 3 drafts to find another RB. Plus who says they don't rely more on Mariota as he progresses. What if they draft one of top WRs in this draft. Opportunity now can up value and that is what draft picks do now. And value will only increase as who knows where next Jordan Howard comes from on draft day
I would think 1.6 or later at best.
I would think 1.6 or later at best.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So which 5-6 rookies are you taking over him, and why are their talent/situations better than Henry?
FUBAR
Footballguy
if you're taking 5 rookies over Henry, it should be because rb is devalued. In which case I'll agree (and I really like Henry). Fournette, cook, Davis, Williams are worth more. Mccaffery and ross are about equal imo.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I agree that 1.05 is probably a good marker for Henry. I drafted him at 1.05 last year in one dynasty league. I happened to also draft Jordan Howard later in that same league. I would consider cashing him in at 1.05 value since I have some RB depth. I have a very competitive but aging team in another league where I won DeMarco Murray. I would probably buy at that 1.05 value in that league.
bostonfred
Footballguy
There is no rbbc mentality. Murray was 4th in the league in touches per game behind only bell, elliott and David Johnson.
Henry had 123 touches including 2 games this year where he didn't get the ball once. He had 20 touches for 97 yards wnd a td week 8, then no touches week 9, 9 for 31 week 10, then no touches week 11.
The first 11 games of the season, Murray had 252 touches (23 per game). Henry had 71 (6 per game).
In the last 5 games of the season, murray had 94 touches (19 per game). Henry had 52 (10 per game). As a team, they were still getting 29 rb touches per game. It went to a 66/33 split instead of 80/20.
Henry looked really.good by the end of the year. He finished with 48 rushes for 238 yards and 4 tds with 4 catches for 30 yards. He earned his increase from 6 to 10 touches a game, but they still clearly used a bell cow.
Murray may have worn down, with 86 rushes for just 287 yards (3.3 per carry) and 1 td in the last 5 games, plus 13 catches for 109. His first 11 games, he had 207 rushes for 1000 yards and 40 catches for 268 with 11 total tds
If you want to make the case that Henry isn't good enough to be the bell cow, or that you feel more confident in the rookies than him, that's one thing. Or that the team or philosophy might change down the road. I'd buy that. But Tennessee had a hugely productive running game and they gave the lion's share to the lead back. There's no RBBC mentality.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Rbs i would clearly rather have than henry in non ppr dynasty
Bell
David johnson
Elliott
I can definitely understand preferring Fournette, Cook or one of the other rookies, and they're certainly a fair swap.
Howard, Gordon, Gurley, Freeman, Lamar Miller, Ajayi - for me, I'd prefer Henry out of this group, but he belongs in this group. I can see someone having any or all of these guys above Henry, too, and I wouldn't argue..
Mccoy, cj anderson, hyde, ware, and the other rookie rbs? I think Henry is clearly above this group.
So at least in non ppr, Henry is a top 12 dynasty rb, and possibly as high as top 5 if you're high on him/low on some of the other guys. In ppr, I don't even know who I would move ahead of him.
Bell
David johnson
Elliott
I can definitely understand preferring Fournette, Cook or one of the other rookies, and they're certainly a fair swap.
Howard, Gordon, Gurley, Freeman, Lamar Miller, Ajayi - for me, I'd prefer Henry out of this group, but he belongs in this group. I can see someone having any or all of these guys above Henry, too, and I wouldn't argue..
Mccoy, cj anderson, hyde, ware, and the other rookie rbs? I think Henry is clearly above this group.
So at least in non ppr, Henry is a top 12 dynasty rb, and possibly as high as top 5 if you're high on him/low on some of the other guys. In ppr, I don't even know who I would move ahead of him.
FUBAR
Footballguy
agreed on pretty much all of this except I'd take Hyde over Henry due to the more immediate production. (FWIW, Hyde is among my buy low targets) Hyde belongs in the Gordon/Miller/Ajayi tier.
I'd also add Coleman to the group. Probably take Henry ahead of him but it's not a lock.
FUBAR
Footballguy
this is true to the point of frustration last year. Many of us, myself included, really wanted to see more of DH last year. There seemed to be a reluctance to put him in, but Murray played really well so it's hard to blame Mularkey for keeping him in.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Personally i would move gordon/miller/ajayi down to the hyde tier, and take henry above any of them, but i think we're still in the same basic ballpark. The difference is that i believe henry has win your league ability. Hyde has strong contributor ability. Gordon might be in that win your league tier, it just scares me that everyone seems to agree this was a career year for him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Henry was a mid-2nd round pick last year. There might be 4 RBs taken earlier than that in this year's draft. So the question is how much does a decent season running for 4.5ypc as a fresh legs part-time player behind a good offensive line change that? For some people, the answer is apparently "a whole lot". I am certainly inclined to agree to some extent, but not with what has apparently become the consensus.
There is a reason that good fantasy offensive lines typically don't remain as such for very long. Much like the ever rotating group of 2nd tier defenses year in and year out, things become much more complicated when talking about an entire unit rather than a single player.
Often we see just one or two of these guys get some kind of troublesome injury and it wrecks the whole line as they don't gel with the new guy, other linemen end up shifting around to play positions they're not as good at, etc. Just one year ago the Eagles, Ravens, Packers, and Texans were ranked as top 5 run blocking units. Now they're all considered pretty average, if that.
Murray's production dropped off pretty precipitously immediately following his foot injury. I think it's fairly safe to assume that played a major role in his drop in production.
FUBAR
Footballguy
His draft slot in the real thing doesn't matter all that much, he was a fairly high pick. He clearly has talent. He was a top 6 rookie pick last year, he should be worth about the same now. He didn't show enough to boost his stock but nothing to drop it either.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well, to be fair, the top 5 this year is worth quite a bit more than the top 5 last year.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The top 7 last year included elliott, michael thomas, derrick henry, corey coleman, and sterling shepard. That's very solid. The jury is still out on doctson and treadwell - doctson flashed, treadwell didn't.
The weakness of last years class was a myth.
The weakness of last years class was a myth.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I agree with this. If you take the top 7 in any draft there are bound to be a couple of misses. Last year's draft in the top 7 is actually looking like a pretty strong draft.
bostonfred
Footballguy
And that doesn't count guys like howard, dak, wentz, dixon, perkins, hunter henry, fuller, prosise...
I don't think it was a myth at all. I must have missed the Doctson flash and while to early to rule any of those players out Treadwell and Docstons showed close to nothing, Shepard looked solid but did not put to rest any concerns you might be drafting a long term WR3 type.bostonfred said:
You also had Fuller, Dixon, Booker, and Caroo in a lot of first rounds. Again, to early to write any of them off, but none of them increased their stock.
Only first round picks to me that people can say they hit on for sure was Elliot and Thomas and I'd put Hunter Henry in that mix if he was a first round pick, which he was in most TE premium leagues.
Now a lot of you would put Henry in that mix as a hit, I don't based on the player but can see that based on his trade value. Reading some of you value him I guess you could say he's a hit. For me, I was OTC last year at pick 8 and he was available and I got someone to give me a 2017#1 which ended up being pick 8 again and I have zero reservations about that trade because not only would I take 1.8 over Henry right now but I did not have to waster a roster spot on him last season.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
What?bostonfred said:
Last year we had 4th and 5th round RBs being drafted in the mid-late 1st round. That's the same spot that 2nd round RBs like Yeldon and Abdullah were being drafted the year before.
2nd round WRs like Shepard/Thomas were early-mid 1sts. The year before that spot was netting you a RB or WR drafted in the 1st half of round 1 like Gordon or Parker.
Guys like Doctson and Treadwell who were late 1st round picks in the NFL draft were consensus top 3 picks in last year's draft. The year before guys like Perriman down there barely cracked the 1st.
Last year's top WR wouldn't have even cracked the top 3 WRs if he were in the class from the year before.
We can talk all day about how well or poorly they all performed as rookies, but that's not the discussion being made here. The guys Henry was being compared to as a mid-1st last year compared to the guys he's being compared to as a mid-1st this year are not similarly rated as prospects, so if his draft slot is similar in this year's class to where it was in last year's class that is absolutely an upgrade in his value (which as I've mentioned, he probably deserves).
massraider
Footballguy
I still don't like last year's class.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This sounds like a lot of circular logic. If you had already decided last year's rb class sucked because most of the rbs were drafted late in the nfl draft, and you still feel that way, then good for you i guess. I thought they were good and still think they're good. Good for me i guess
Elliott and Thomas both had all time performances as rookies. Like legitimately among the best rookie years ever.l at their positions. Dak was a legit nfl mvp candidate. Wentz looked like he might be too, early in the season.
Coleman looked awesome before he got hurt. He was pedestrian when he came back, but he was an injured rookie playing on a bad team with no qb that was angling for the number one pick. He looks legit.
Yes, Doctson flashed. He hurt his achilles back in may and they gave him maximum recovery time. He had a good camp and they talked him up as a red zone target. He only ended up with two catches, but one went for 57 yards. They're talking about starting him next year and letting one of their good veterans go. It might not be enough for you to go on, but all signs seem positive except the injury.
Treadwell may be a bust. It's one year. You never know. Not good so far.
Fuller - also a first round pivk in nfl and rookie drafts - jad 19 catches for 323 uards and 2 yds in his first 4 games playing with osweiler. He got hurt too, but he definitely flashed.
Shepard had 700 yards and 8 tds as a rookie. Very respectable. I agree that his upside seemed capped but the kid had 6 tds in the last 8 games - he might just be really good
We talked all offseason about these backs getting drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds. Howard was drafted in the 5th round. He put up rb1 numbers as a rookie.
Perkins appears to be the giants rb of the future. He hasn't done a ton yet, but his first start of the season, he had 100 yards, which was the first giants rb to get 100 yards all year. He learned the protections, which is difficult and important for a team that constantly changes plays and protections at the line. And he won't be stuck waiting for late graduation like he was last year - he'll have a full offseason with the playbook.
Dixon looks like the ravens lead back and did a good job both running and catching the ball. He didn't take over the job until late in the season, but he got hurt early. He needs to survive the offseason, and they may bring in a speed guy, but he is so hard to bring down he will have a big role regardless.
I wasn't high on booker, but he flashed as a backup, and may just have been asked to do too much as a rookie when anderson went down. Not sure you should write him off, either.
Prosise had 47 touches for 380 yards. 200 touches at that pace and hes a 1600 total yard back. In a full time role he could be a monster. He's got the size and speed, he just needs to stay healthy and keep learning the position.
Those guys aren't "hits" yet, but they're all solid prospects, and at least for now they're more hits than misses.
And yes, Hunter Henry and Wentz were both in consideration for the first round and both look like solid hits. And Dak came out of nowhere.
Caroo was way overrated here - he was drafted way ahead of where he should have been because people didn't feel like they were missing out on much by reaching for him, not because he was drafted early or had a clear path to start as a rookie.
Most of the first round still has first round value. A couple, more than that. A lot of the later round guys held value or more. I posted my first round rankings, and feel like my top 20 has a lot more hits than misses.
Elliott and Thomas both had all time performances as rookies. Like legitimately among the best rookie years ever.l at their positions. Dak was a legit nfl mvp candidate. Wentz looked like he might be too, early in the season.
Coleman looked awesome before he got hurt. He was pedestrian when he came back, but he was an injured rookie playing on a bad team with no qb that was angling for the number one pick. He looks legit.
Yes, Doctson flashed. He hurt his achilles back in may and they gave him maximum recovery time. He had a good camp and they talked him up as a red zone target. He only ended up with two catches, but one went for 57 yards. They're talking about starting him next year and letting one of their good veterans go. It might not be enough for you to go on, but all signs seem positive except the injury.
Treadwell may be a bust. It's one year. You never know. Not good so far.
Fuller - also a first round pivk in nfl and rookie drafts - jad 19 catches for 323 uards and 2 yds in his first 4 games playing with osweiler. He got hurt too, but he definitely flashed.
Shepard had 700 yards and 8 tds as a rookie. Very respectable. I agree that his upside seemed capped but the kid had 6 tds in the last 8 games - he might just be really good
We talked all offseason about these backs getting drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds. Howard was drafted in the 5th round. He put up rb1 numbers as a rookie.
Perkins appears to be the giants rb of the future. He hasn't done a ton yet, but his first start of the season, he had 100 yards, which was the first giants rb to get 100 yards all year. He learned the protections, which is difficult and important for a team that constantly changes plays and protections at the line. And he won't be stuck waiting for late graduation like he was last year - he'll have a full offseason with the playbook.
Dixon looks like the ravens lead back and did a good job both running and catching the ball. He didn't take over the job until late in the season, but he got hurt early. He needs to survive the offseason, and they may bring in a speed guy, but he is so hard to bring down he will have a big role regardless.
I wasn't high on booker, but he flashed as a backup, and may just have been asked to do too much as a rookie when anderson went down. Not sure you should write him off, either.
Prosise had 47 touches for 380 yards. 200 touches at that pace and hes a 1600 total yard back. In a full time role he could be a monster. He's got the size and speed, he just needs to stay healthy and keep learning the position.
Those guys aren't "hits" yet, but they're all solid prospects, and at least for now they're more hits than misses.
And yes, Hunter Henry and Wentz were both in consideration for the first round and both look like solid hits. And Dak came out of nowhere.
Caroo was way overrated here - he was drafted way ahead of where he should have been because people didn't feel like they were missing out on much by reaching for him, not because he was drafted early or had a clear path to start as a rookie.
Most of the first round still has first round value. A couple, more than that. A lot of the later round guys held value or more. I posted my first round rankings, and feel like my top 20 has a lot more hits than misses.
