What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***Official Road to the 2017 Breeders Cup*** - GUN RUNNER Romps, Rob Ryan Doppleganger Rejoices! (1 Viewer)

otb_lifer

Footballguy
prep races underway, points being accumulated ... it's early, but we're only one month out from the first big points test in the USA - the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds.  

early darlings appear to be MASTERY (Baffert) and CLASSIC EMPIRE (Casse).

this is the full leader board, and here's the full prep race sched, with replays of the 14 that have been run already, and the current futures slate.

but the real big news is coming up at Gulfstream Park tomorrow, where we'll see the largest purse in history, the $12,000,000 Pegasus World Cup - featuring CALIFORNIA CHROME in his final race, looking to go out as the richest horse of all time ... but he'll have to thwart nemesis ARROGATE - last time these two hooked up was the 2016 Breeders Cup Classic, one of the greatest duels we've seen ... feeling afterwards by quite a few observers was that Mike Smith simply outraced Victor Espinoza - in the replay, you see Smith dive inside with ARROGATE at the 3/4 mark (after rating him beautifully, with CC on the lead), making up ground, and getting right on CC's heels.  Smith had a ton of horse left, flanked to CC's outside, and polished him off in a thrilling stretch run. 

being hailed as a glorified Match Race, but both top horses drew the extreme post positions, with ARROGATE in the one hole, and CC on the far outside in the twelve (12 horse field).  maybe SHAMAN GHOST (#7) or KEEN ICE (#9) can get up and crash this party?  or do we see these two great favorites find a way to hook up in another ding-dong nail biter?   man, that 12 hole is tough, but i'll be pulling for CC to go out in style   :thumbup:

Pegasus PPs right here, gonna be a great day of racing down there 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
posted this on a Friday morning, came down with some stomach bug, and   :X  for a week or so

picking back up here, with the Pegasus replay - ARROGATE in the romp, as Cali Chrome just had no answer in his farewell race.  impressive run by the greatest horse on the scene right now, and a bittersweet goodbye to the magnificent CC - enjoy the breeding shed, champ  :thumbup:

as far as the Derby Preps ...

the Holy Bull at Gulfstream - with IRISH WAR CRY inserting himself into the Derby picture, upsetting favorite CLASSIC EMPIRE, and netting 10 points in the standings.

meanwhile, up here at Aqueduct, the Withers Stakes was taken down by EL AREEB, also bagging 10 points.

updated leader board here, with the Sam F. Davis coming up Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs - will feature the 2017 debut of McKRACKEN (out of GHOSTZAPPER).

 
Sam F Davis today at TB Downs - PPs  here

McCRACKEN installed as 2/1 favorite, and i'm looking at the #7 (TAPWRIT) and the #9 (NO DOZING) to make some noise down there, and to give the son of GHOSTZAPPER a nice run for the money ... #9 especially intriguing, with TB Downs legend Daniel Centenno in the irons.

here's vid of McCRACKEN'S last time out, back in November, bagging the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes from well off the pace ... impressive finish, and a ton of horse was certainly left.

 
Sam F Davis today at TB Downs - PPs  here

McCRACKEN installed as 2/1 favorite, and i'm looking at the #7 (TAPWRIT) and the #9 (NO DOZING) to make some noise down there, and to give the son of GHOSTZAPPER a nice run for the money ... #9 especially intriguing, with TB Downs legend Daniel Centenno in the irons.

here's vid of McCRACKEN'S last time out, back in November, bagging the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes from well off the pace ... impressive finish, and a ton of horse was certainly left.
Going on a Fact Finding tour here, even though the fig on that sloppy stretchout is likely spurious. Prospects of the quality of these Pletchers never made it to TBD when i was a horse player

ETA: I'd love it if, even though few have responded so far, if you'd keep this going, with the replays & PPs. Fun - havent followed the Derby trail in a while...

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Going on a Fact Finding tour here, even though the fig on that sloppy stretchout is likely spurious. Prospects of the quality of these Pletchers never made it to TBD when i was a horse player
yeah, 101 Beyer is the highest fig among today's entrants ... interesting that the other Pletcher entrant, TAPWRIT, ran the same day (Dec. 10) down there at Gulfstream),  and pulled a 98 fig 

looks to be a competitive enough field, nice test for the 'CRACKEN

 
yeah, 101 Beyer is the highest fig among today's entrants ... interesting that the other Pletcher entrant, TAPWRIT, ran the same day (Dec. 10) down there at Gulfstream),  and pulled a 98 fig 

looks to be a competitive enough field, nice test for the 'CRACKEN
They didnt 'release' him so he took a big race mostly on one lead.

I just like the way Fact Finding was rolled out as a 2yo. That combo of precocious & careful speaks to some talent and hope on the stable's part.

 
They didnt 'release' him so he took a big race mostly on one lead.

I just like the way Fact Finding was rolled out as a 2yo. That combo of precocious & careful speaks to some talent and hope on the stable's part.
will be using with the #9 and #7, hoping for the upset  :thumbup:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Cowboysfan8 said:
Mckracken ran his race. Looked good 

Tapwrit ran a nice race too with a worse trip
yeah, watching the replay this morning (sober) , can see TAPWRIT saving nice ground on the rail, until the turn for home ... Ortiz gets jammed down inside, and has to switch out to 3 wide, losing ground and momentum as 'CRACKEN was closing fast.

he then lugs out a bit before straightening for the stretch .. and looked like he had much more left in the tank, and would've polished off 'CRACKEN through another furlong.

one to keep an eye on  :thumbup:

 
10-4-2-1 up for grabs at the El Camino Real Derby (GG Fields) today, with SoCal heavy hitters Hollandorfer and O'Neil shipping up the two favorites,  #5 SHEER FLATTERY and #3 ANN ARBOR EDDIE, respectively. 

 last time out for SHEER FLATTERY was a couple weeks ago in the Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita ... plods to a third place (out of five) finish.

meanwhile, ANN ARBOR EDDIE ground out an impressive, gutsy win in the California Cup Derby, also at S.A.

link to the field for today here, and the PPs - note on the PPs, it was whittled down to a seven horse field, but all eligible horses are/were included.

loving the #3 here, big time - looks to be the class of this group   :thumbup:   banging the #2 MORE POWER TO HIM to round out the exacta.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
we have our first official "IN" - EPICHARIS  bags 50 points with a win in the Hyacinth Stakes over in Japan.

the undefeated colt has just punched a ticket to the starting gate for the Derby, if connections choose to ship here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Grade 3 Southwest today at Oaklawn Park ... it's the last of the 17 point (10-4-2-1) prep races, stakes get higher moving forward.

the #3 horse UNCONTESTED (out of Derby winner LIL.E.TEE) is the one to watch here ... took down the Smarty Jones last month, also at Oaklawn ... pretty convincing win, and love that he did it in the muck.  

the #8 horse in today's field PETROV should be the main competition, he may rebound nicely with better conditions.   the #11 ONE LINER (Pletcher/Johnny V) also looking good ... m/l of 5/2 for UNCONTESTED is pretty damn juicy, and tough to pass up, though he will undoubtedly get banged down a lot more as post time approaches.

here is a quick look at the field, and the PPs for all nominated - gotta sift through to find the 13 going to post. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ONE LINER takes the Sothwest down with a very fine looking race for him -

UNCONTESTED gets out early, tugging a bit, looking a tad green .. PETROV keeps the pressure on, while ONE LINER rates back beautifully.  

PETROV buries the favorite (who had no answer for the two turn stretchout) turning for home, then ONE LINER makes his move, inhaling both of them to pull away easily ... lugged out a smidge in the stretch, but finished with authority. 

Pletcher doesn't ship there often, but he placed this horse in a great spot ... looking forward to the Rebel and Arkansas Derby for this one, his path to the Derby will hopefully run through Oaklawn.

ETA: fully updated leader board  - the final futures wager odds will be released on 2/24 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
so, after a very underwhelming third in the Holy Bull, current points leader (and futures odds favorite) CLASSIC EMPIRE is pulling out of the upcoming Fountain of Youth (3/4, at Gulfstream) with a foot abscess   :unsure:  

talk of possibly holding him back an extra week for the Tampa Bay Derby (3/11), where he'll run into the beast that is McCRACKEN -

dunno, got a feeling we don't see him anywhere near the starting gate come May 6th   :no:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
final future wagers pool was released yesterday (PDF, with rules) -  the field, currently going off at 4/1, is the favorite

here are the PPs  for each horse listed - nice value on TAPWRIT at 20/1 ... closed nicely on McCRACKEN last time out, after a pretty rough trip on the turn for home.  

meanwhile, we have the Risen Star being run today down at the Fair Grounds ... this is the first of the big point (50/20/10/5) prep races here in the States.  a crowded 14 horse field, with attention being mostly paid to three top contenders, most notably the 2017 debut of  #9 MO TOWN (outta Uncle Mo) -  his last appearance was in the Remsen up here at Aqueduct .. he stalked a weak favorite (who was in a big hurry) most the way, then made his move, burying the field in the stretch. created alotta buzz, and will be tested by two others from the futures pool today - #3 LOCAL HERO, and #6 GUEST SUITE.  both won their last time out over this track, with GS taking the Lecomte Stakes in a bit of slop.

haven't scored PPs for this one yet, but liking the looks of the #6 here  ... Albarado is grooving with him, and the 6/1 m/l is enticing, though he will be banged down to somewhere in the 5/2 vicinity come post time, methinks.   keeping an eye on the #12 HORSE FLY (Lukas) as a live longshot to toss in exotics (Keeneland grad, outta Mineshaft,  via the A.P. Indy/Giants Causeway line) ... also taking a longer look at #2 UNTRAPPED - had a bit of trouble in Lecomte, might hit better form today in better conditions. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
final future wagers pool was released yesterday (PDF, with rules) -  the field, currently going off at 4/1, is the favorite

here are the PPs  for each horse listed - nice value on TAPWRIT at 20/1 ... closed nicely on McCRACKEN last time out, after a pretty rough trip on the turn for home.  

meanwhile, we have the Risen Star being run today down at the Fair Grounds ... this is the first of the big point (50/20/10/5) prep races here in the States.  a crowded 14 horse field, with attention being mostly paid to three top contenders, most notably the 2017 debut of  #9 MO TOWN (outta Uncle Mo) -  his last appearance was in the Remsen up here at Aqueduct .. he stalked a weak favorite (who was in a big hurry) most the way, then made his move, burying the field in the stretch. created alotta buzz, and will be tested by two others from the futures pool today - #3 LOCAL HERO, and #6 GUEST SUITE.  both won their last time out over this track, with GS taking the Lecomte Stakes in a bit of slop.

haven't scored PPs for this one yet, but liking the looks of the #6 here  ... Albarado is grooving with him, and the 6/1 m/l is enticing, though he will be banged down to somewhere in the 5/2 vicinity come post time, methinks.   keeping an eye on the #12 HORSE FLY (Lukas) as a live longshot to toss in exotics (Keeneland grad, outta Mineshaft,  via the A.P. Indy/Giants Causeway line) ... also taking a longer look at #2 UNTRAPPED - had a bit of trouble in Lecomte, might hit better form today in better conditions. 
surprised Tapwrit has gone up (23) in the pool, but there's no such thing as value on a February underdog at less than 35. some gambling sites had him @ 40 this wk. that's decent

 
Last edited by a moderator:
otb_lifer said:
meh - i never bet the futures, but i know some folks are into that wager, so i chuck it in here  - it closes tomorrow, and if one were so inclined, they could do a lot worse  :shrug:
Had Spend a Buck @ 150-1 backinaday and, in '89, after seeing a Whittingham colt go against a rail bias to nearly defeat a Lukas million-dollar colt, we group-stormed (you could only bet $200 on longshots and had to take reduced-odds for any more you bet) the Reno books to get $1000 down on Sunday Silence @ 75-1. My biggest score - i left the game before the supermultiples really took over. Databases have killed that edge now, but i still like thinkin bout futures.

 
easy as 1, 2, 3  in yesterday's  Risen Star

#3 LOCAL HERO tried to be just that, getting away early, and in the lead as they turned for home ...  the 3/2 favorite #9 MO TOWN, kept pace for awhile, then faded amongst the gulls.  #2 UNTRAPPED  ground out a decent second, but it was #1 GIRVIN (turf to dirt shtick) closing late to take this comfortably, snagging a cool 50 pts. for his efforts, and all but assuring himself a spot in Churchill.   disappointing 4th for #6 GUEST SUITE.

GIRVIN jumps to top of leader board, and will now be pointed to Louisiana Derby ... expect much of this same lot to saddle up again for that ... overall it appears to be a very uninspiring crew down there - perhaps we'll see better come LA. Derby. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
and now McCRACKEN joins CLASSIC EMPIRE on the sidelines.

his (McC) dropping out of the Tampa Bay Derby may be just the incentive the connections of CLASSIC EMPIRE need to point him there on March 11th.

 
couple of preps today, the big one is Gulfstream's  Fountain of Youth - here are the PPs

definitely the best prep of the year thus far, featuring a very deep and talented crop ... and had CLASSIC EMPIRE not been sidelined, he would've been here as well.  

three who are being eyed very closely are #8 IRISH WAR CRY, #6 PRACTICAL JOKE, and #2 GUNNEVERA - wouldn't be shocked to see any of these three going on to win the Derby ... good looking bunch hitting the gate.

GUNNEVERA and IRISH WAR CRY were just out over this track four weeks ago, both burying CLASSIC EMPIRE in the Holy Bull

PRACTICAL JOKE has a lot of buzz about him, and will be making his three year old debut - last time out was the Breeders Cup Juvy, where he hit some trouble in the stretch, was forced wide, and finished distant third.  installed at 3/1 m/l.

meanwhile, up here at Aqueduct, we get The Gotham - notable for the return of #4 EL AREEB, who rated off a very slow pace, then demolished the field at last month's Withers, also at Aqueduct.  

the #6 TRUE TIMBER returns for another shot, and the Chad Brown trained #9 CLOUD COMPUTING stretches out for only his second ever start, a win (6f) here already ... Doug O'Neil ships the #8 SO CONFLATED - who will be my pick to round out the exacta, because everyone else is gonna be chasing the favorite EL AREEB down the stretch - he is the big class of this field, and it would be pretty surprising to see him falter today.

Gotham PPs here

 
Also worth mentioning...Unique Bella is one of five fillies nominated to the Kentucky Derby and would (arguably) be the favorite if the race was run right now.  She's running today in the Santa Ysabel and is 1-5 on the morning line.  Last race she went off at 1-9 despite facing 2YO Champion, Champagne Room, and won easily.

 
couple of preps today, the big one is Gulfstream's  Fountain of Youth - here are the PPs

definitely the best prep of the year thus far, featuring a very deep and talented crop ... and had CLASSIC EMPIRE not been sidelined, he would've been here as well.  

three who are being eyed very closely are #8 IRISH WAR CRY, #6 PRACTICAL JOKE, and #2 GUNNEVERA - wouldn't be shocked to see any of these three going on to win the Derby ... good looking bunch hitting the gate.

GUNNEVERA and IRISH WAR CRY were just out over this track four weeks ago, both burying CLASSIC EMPIRE in the Holy Bull

PRACTICAL JOKE has a lot of buzz about him, and will be making his three year old debut - last time out was the Breeders Cup Juvy, where he hit some trouble in the stretch, was forced wide, and finished distant third.  installed at 3/1 m/l.

meanwhile, up here at Aqueduct, we get The Gotham - notable for the return of #4 EL AREEB, who rated off a very slow pace, then demolished the field at last month's Withers, also at Aqueduct.  

the #6 TRUE TIMBER returns for another shot, and the Chad Brown trained #9 CLOUD COMPUTING stretches out for only his second ever start, a win (6f) here already ... Doug O'Neil ships the #8 SO CONFLATED - who will be my pick to round out the exacta, because everyone else is gonna be chasing the favorite EL AREEB down the stretch - he is the big class of this field, and it would be pretty surprising to see him falter today.

Gotham PPs here
Ahhh, "The Fountain of Youth"...

Remember the insane buildup prior to Go For Gin & Holy Bull squaring off in this race?

Go For Gin got his vengeance in the Derby, & so did I...$$$, with the Brocco exacta, as well.  Good times.

 
Also worth mentioning...Unique Bella is one of five fillies nominated to the Kentucky Derby and would (arguably) be the favorite if the race was run right now.  She's running today in the Santa Ysabel and is 1-5 on the morning line.  Last race she went off at 1-9 despite facing 2YO Champion, Champagne Room, and won easily.
very impressive effort here ... 'won for fun'   :thumbup:   - if she doesn't hit Churchill, maybe we see her at the Preakness?

Ahhh, "The Fountain of Youth"...

Remember the insane buildup prior to Go For Gin & Holy Bull squaring off in this race?

Go For Gin got his vengeance in the Derby, & so did I...$$$, with the Brocco exacta, as well.  Good times.
DEHERE  doin' some work ... also infamous for HALO'S IMAGE ridiculous drift   :shock:   btw, no one called a race like Davey Johnson  :wub:

 
1/9/4 in the Gotham, as the Romans trained (Albarado)  #1 J BOYS ECHO springs the upset ... EL AREEB got out on a pretty swift pace, and was swallowed up turning for home ... #9 CLOUD COMPUTING looked game, but a very decisive victory for the #1, who pretty much punched a ticket for the Derby.

EL AREEB gotta bounce back in the Wood Memorial, case closed.

 
Fountain of Youth to #2 GUNNEVERA with authority!

 IRISH WAR CRY, who was banged down to even money,  chased/stalked an early pace, then pulled the complete el foldo - chasing gulls as i type

#6 PRACTICAL JOKE finished well enough in second, 

GUNNEVERA punches a ticket. 

should be a very hotly contested Florida Derby coming up ... IRISH WAR CRY gotta respond.

 
GUNNEVERA romps in yesterday's  Fountain of Youth

J BOYS ECHO likewuse in yesterday's  Gotham

meanwhile, out in Cali, UNIQUE BELLA - at 1/9 - got out early in the Santa Ysabel - she was gamely challenged down the stretch (she looked a bit sluggish before Smith went to work) and responded well enough to pull away ... she was asked, and she certainly answered  -  that's as impressive on the trail as an open length cakewalk, imo.

 
Heya OTB,

Sorry I have never posted in here, but as a local, I have gotten so over-dosed with horse racing over the years, that I don't follow the sport aspect of it all anymore.

I'll have some of my parkers make bets for me Derby Week, but I am clueless in regards to what you guys discuss in here.

However, I can provide a mild service...

...here is Churchill from my front porch about an hour ago...cell phone...crappy pic...but serves it purpose.

In real life, you can see the horses run on part of the track from the porch, but my upstairs window provides a much better view.

Unfortunately, during Derby Week, there are temporary seating stands up to accommodate the larger crowd...thus...not too good of a view from the porch...upstairs is ok though...not a finish line view, but at least a little live action on parts of the track.

Hope this gets the juices flowing...and it is in part payback for my envy of your real life views of Norah Jones!  :wub:

EDIT: Also, quit smoking...here is my last one...as I sleep:P

 
Last edited by a moderator:
@Man of Constant Sorrow   :thumbup:

sheesh ... if i had that vantage point of the track  :shock:  instead of me running at 5 a.m., i'd be up on your roof watching the ponies gallop, clocking the works

might lead me to try unleashing some hastily slapped together tout sheet for the punters - 'From the Rooftop' - nice, amirite? 

oh, and ... yeah ... though this year is out, reserve a porch seat for me in 2018 (let's hope) - only been once, but never to the race proper  :(  - had a client in Louisville back in the 90s, and i was there during the off season, though we did take a scoot on by. gorgeous facility.

congrats on the cig breaking - good luck keeping vigilant on that front - but, gotta say, ya look distinguished puffing away  :yes:

 
might lead me to try unleashing some hastily slapped together tout sheet for the punters - 'From the Rooftop' - nice, amirite?
:yes:  ...but...steep pittch....old house...1912....hold on tight.

oh, and ... yeah ... though this year is out, reserve a porch seat for me in 2018 (let's hope) - only been once, but never to the race proper  :(  - had a client in Louisville back in the 90s, and i was there during the off season, though we did take a scoot on by. gorgeous facility
:thumbup: ...you gotta perma-reserve Otb....tear round.

congrats on the cig breaking - good luck keeping vigilant on that front - but, gotta say, ya look distinguished puffing away  :yes:
:wall:  ...already broke my fast...gotta start the quit again today. :lol:

Have good one. 

 
Coast to Coast preps today, starting with the Tampa Bay Derby - then out to Cali for the San Felipe 

the Florida race is a deep and wide open field, with #5 TAPWRIT the installed 3/1 favorite ... his last time out in the Sam Davis over this same track, getting boxed in late, but then making a nice run at McCRACKEN to finish a flying second - also in that race was today's #8 STATE OF HONOR (4/1), who rounded out the trifecta - he was the pacesetter for 3/4 of the Davis, was used early to get out from the inside post, which may have cost him some juice once the big two came charging.  today's #9 WILD SHOT (5/1) also steps up from the Davis ... tough trip last time out, and seems to be a horse ready to make a statement.  the #6 BEASLEY was pulled from last week's Fountain of Youth, and aimed here for a 'softer' spot ... we shall see.    gimme a 5/9 exacta play - chalky, but can't see those two not dueling through the stretch.

meanwhile, a yuuuuge day of racing at Santa Anita features the San Felipe ... notable for the 2017 debut of highly touted Baffert (Smith) contender #4 MASTERY (6/5) - undefeated in three starts, last time out taking down the Cash Call Futurity at Los Al 

will be challenged by #5 GORMLEY (9/5) -  who barely held on to win a muddy Sham back in January.   

i'm liking the looks of #6 ILIAD (5/2), here's the O'Neil trained colt romping in last month's San Vicente - stablemate #3 ANN ARBOR EDDIE (8/1) can make some noise, love his finish back in the California Cup - Gutierrez stays in the irons.

leaning towards playing the Dougie exacta , though the smaller field would seem to be better for the chalk here.

 
Tampa Bay Derby

#5 TAPWRIT breaks the stakes record, finally passing up a very quick #8 STATE OF HONOR ... #9 WILD SHOT rounded the trifecta.

i mentioned TAPWRIT earlier as nice option in the futures, and he keeps impressing.  dude is locked for May 6th - loving this colt.

ETA: missed the San Felipe, but #4 MASTERY took it down, with #6 ILIAD in seond - hope to have replays up soon   :banned:

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top