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Lots of moving pieces...good trade?? (1 Viewer)

OldTomMesko

Footballguy
I'm in a new dynasty startup, and I'm a little weak at RB. We start 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR. 6 round rookie draft to come later. 

RB: Gurley, Powell, Perkins, Booker, Karlos Williams. 

WR: Hilton, DT, Crabtree, Desean, Enunwa, DGB, Brice Butler, Woods

Also own the 1.01, which is why I didn't heavily pursue a second RB earlier. 

Looking at a deal where I send:

DT, Booker, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 5.01, 2018 3rd. 
for
Jordan Howard, 1.05, 2.05, 4.05, 6.05, 2018 2nd. 

Dynasty FF tools has this rated as 100% fair, with my team gaining a singular value point. 

Should I try to make this deal? Is it worth offering on my part? 

 
I would much rather have the Howard side of things by a large margin and if I had Howard I would reject fairly quickly.  Worth the offer to the other guy and see what he does but I doubt he accepts the deal.

 
I agree with Gally.  I think this trade is grossly in your favor.  

I would take Howard over DT.  Add in you get 1.05 for a heap of junk and you get a 1 round bump in 2018.  I think that tool must be out of date because this looks uneven to me.

 
I think it is fair. But I don't think you want to give up DT if it is ppr. With any kind of QB upgrade he moves back into the top 10 WR. I don't see Howard having a better season than he just had and they were tied for overall points on the year. Granted Howard missed game 1. But they were close on the season. The 1.5 is a solid piece but I think long term DT will serve you better. 

 
I think it is fair. But I don't think you want to give up DT if it is ppr. With any kind of QB upgrade he moves back into the top 10 WR. I don't see Howard having a better season than he just had and they were tied for overall points on the year. Granted Howard missed game 1. But they were close on the season. The 1.5 is a solid piece but I think long term DT will serve you better. 
You must not put much weight into age?  DT turns 30 during next season, Howard was a rookie.  I would think in startup Howard goes off the board easily before DT.  

 
You must not put much weight into age?  DT turns 30 during next season, Howard was a rookie.  I would think in startup Howard goes off the board easily before DT.  
Granted...WRs tend to play well into their 30s, DT could still have 4-5 seasons of good, possibly near-elite (if everything breaks right) seasons left. If Howard even becomes an elite RB, you figure he has maybe 3-5 years of top production max. Howard = higher ceiling. DT = higher floor. 

 
You must not put much weight into age?  DT turns 30 during next season, Howard was a rookie.  I would think in startup Howard goes off the board easily before DT.  
Fair enough. But do you think Howard will have a better season coming up? There are only a few Rb's that consistently put up top numbers. I don't think Howard does any better than he did this year. This past season could easily be the most yards for his career. 1600 yards is really good but even with that he was still even with DT on his down year. Rb's can't be counted on for more than 2-3 years anyway. I do acknowledge I am biased against Rb's though. I don't think you can count on them to build a dynasty team. 

 
So do any of you see a large spread between Howard and DT?  I just looked at the first rankings when I googled and saw DT at #20 and Hooward at #36.  I personally would put Howard ahead of DT since this is a must start 2 RB league.  I think the big spread is 1.05 and 2.05 by a lot over 2.01 and 3.01 ( I threw out the lower picks instead of listing them all.  I will still easily take Howard and 1.05 over DT and the lower picks outside of round 1.

 
So do any of you see a large spread between Howard and DT?  I just looked at the first rankings when I googled and saw DT at #20 and Hooward at #36.  I personally would put Howard ahead of DT since this is a must start 2 RB league.  I think the big spread is 1.05 and 2.05 by a lot over 2.01 and 3.01 ( I threw out the lower picks instead of listing them all.  I will still easily take Howard and 1.05 over DT and the lower picks outside of round 1.
That shocks me.  I also would have Howard ahead of DT in the rankings.  DT is a solid WR but I don't think he is elite anymore and they are in a too much flux going into the off season.  The Bears are going to center their offense on Howard and he looked good all year.  I just don't see this deal as anything close.

I have DT and I have not been able to get any interest in him on the trade market at all.  Nobody wants him.

 
Good discussion.  Would some of you who like Howard give a projection for next year? I may be way off base.  Also what would you trade Thomas for? 1.5 straight up? I am interested in his value.

 
I understand the longevity issue at RB but I see no reason why Howard can't be just as good or better.  We were a fair amount into the season before he was given the starting job.  Did you see him play?  He doesn't have any elite speed or anything like that but he just keeps churning out solid runs and he is actually a pretty decent receiver with 29 catches as a rookie.  I can see him hitting 1700-1800 yards combined and 8-12 td.

I would probably rather have pick 1.05 than DT in a dynasty league but if someone was going with a win now approach I can see where they might want to do that.  I mean he still had 90 catches and almost 1100 yards.  I just personally suspect Denver will roll with the QB they have and build a team around holding their tough defense together and controlling the football.  I certainly think Simien and Lynch can improve but I expect it to take a while and by then DT will be on the wrong side of 30.

I follow the old saying of better to trade a player a year or two early than too late.

 
Good discussion.  Would some of you who like Howard give a projection for next year? I may be way off base.  Also what would you trade Thomas for? 1.5 straight up? I am interested in his value.
DT's value is at a low as far as what kind of return you can get for him right now.  I also have him and I have gotten no responses when I have floated him out in trade talks.  Nobody seems to want him.  I think he has more value to the team that has him than to any other team just because they won't be willing to part with anything of substance for him. 

I think the Broncos will stay the course they are on and would probably like to change to be more ball control then throwing as much as they have in the past and I think most feel that way and would want to wait until they see where there QB situation goes heading into next year. 

I would recommend holding DT for now as I don't think his value could get any lower and if Denver ends up getting Romo (or similar) then his value should increase.  But for now I don't think he is worth trading because your return will be low. 

 
If someone has equal value on DT as the 1.5 then it is a no brainer. Howard was 6th in the league in yards from scrimmage. Watching him play though he just didn't seem special. However it is tough to explain the production. I just see DT with both the higher floor and ceiling over the next 3 years. It is just hard for me to think he is the next Bell. 

 
@Ratbone @Gally @Warhogs
 

So it looks like I will be making two deals. Someone offered me: 

1.06
for
2.01 and Keanu Neal. Taking that. 

Then, I'm looking at getting

Howard, Vernon Hargreaves, 1.05, 4.05, 2018 1st and 2018 3rd 
for
DT, Perkins, 1.06 (from other trade), 3.01, 2018 2nd and 2018 4th. 

So essentially I'm getting
Howard, Hargreaves, 1.05, 4.05, 2018 1st and 2018 3rd 
for
DT, Perkins, Neal, 2.01, 3.01, 2018 2nd and 2018 4rd.

Final thoughts?

 
I think you are getting the better end of the deal.  I like Howard over Perkins.  I like Neal but he is a DB so fairly easily replaced, Hargreaves is a nice young DL piece and I like the picks in your favor as well.  Roll all that together and it is worth giving up DT for the advantages you are getting elsewhere.

I just don't think DT will be an elite WR anymore.  I see him as a middle of the road to low end WR2 moving forward.  Someone that can be replaced fairly easily because WR seems to have a lot of quality players right now. 

 

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