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Sterling Shepard vs Michael Thomas Dyn (what is the gap) (1 Viewer)

jacobo_moses

jacobo_moses

Footballguy
Looking at moving up in a dynasty idp ppr startup. Wanted to move up 2 rnds. But would have to give up Michael Thomas and get Sterling Shepard.

So I've seen FBG (one staff member) have Thomas at 13 for WRs and Shepard at 19. That isn't much of a gap. The huddle has Shepard at 26 though which is. 

What do you guys think is the gap between Thomas and Shepard?

 
Pretty big gap for me. Shepard is a pretty replaceable WR3 to me long term who will have some big weeks in PPR. I like him but I think he'll be a better real life asset to the Giants than fantasy asset. Seems like a high floor low ceiling type.

Thomas only has Brees for a limited amount of time but I think he's WR1 material for the Saints either way. He's very, very good and should get more targets consistently.

How does this help in the context of swapping them for a two round bump in an IDP startup? No idea haha.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
How does this help in the context of swapping them for a two round bump in an IDP startup? No idea haha.
Click to expand...
Completely agree with Conn here...liked Shep a lot coming out, but Thomas really looked better, and more involved in the gameplan.  Yes, Brees won't be around forever, but Eli looked pretty badly washed up this season too.  I don't think QB stability is any better for Shepard.

As to the value difference vs. rounds in a startup...depends which two rounds.  Third to first?  Do it.  Seventeenth to fifteenth?  Pass.

I suppose for me the breakeven point is going to be somewhere around 6th to 4th.  Early on, the drop from one round to the next is pretty stiff, but it flattens out quick by around the 7th or 8th.

 
All valid points. Shepard seems more WR2/WR3 material. Thomas is WR1 as a rookie in a 16 tm league. So yeah I get it. 

 
jacobo_moses said:
Can Shepard play on the outside wr spots well too?
Click to expand...
Yes but not as well as Beckham, which is the main obstacle to Shephards upside. 

Brandin Cooks is also very good, but Thomas was able to match him as a rookie. You can get a sense of the relative difference in talent from that right there. That is if you consider Brandin Cooks to be similarly talented as Beckham, which for the most part I do.

For fantasy the main difference between them would be yards per target. Otherwise they are pretty close when you adjust for Volume. The Saints threw 674 times compared to the Giants 598. Thomas 121 targets to Shephards 105. 2 yards per reception higher for Thomas and a lot higher catch percentage (61% to 76%) may reflect higher quality QB play more than the players relative ability.

Thomas 9.3 yards per target this is above average.
Shephard 6.5 yards per target this is pretty average to slightly below. I think a lot of players are around 7 YPT.

 
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ConnSKINS26 said:
I think you'd be in the vast minority on this.
Click to expand...
Well Cooks has been about as good as Amari Cooper.

Amari Cooper

132.0    83.0    1153.0    13.9    5.0
130.0    72.0    1070.0    14.9    6.0

131.0    77.5    1111.5    14.4    5.5

14.0 PPG

Brandin Cooks

117.0    78.0    1173.0    15.0    8.0
129.0    84.0    1138.0    13.6    9.0
69.0    53.0    550.0    10.4    3.0 

105.0    71.7    953.7    13.0    6.7 

A few rushing yards and a TD for Cooks in there too.

15.2 PPG

 
Biabreakable said:
Well Cooks has been about as good as Amari Cooper.

Amari Cooper

132.0    83.0    1153.0    13.9    5.0
130.0    72.0    1070.0    14.9    6.0

131.0    77.5    1111.5    14.4    5.5

14.0 PPG

Brandin Cooks

117.0    78.0    1173.0    15.0    8.0
129.0    84.0    1138.0    13.6    9.0
69.0    53.0    550.0    10.4    3.0 

105.0    71.7    953.7    13.0    6.7 

A few rushing yards and a TD for Cooks in there too.

15.2 PPG
Click to expand...
What does Cooper have to do with Beckham though?  I could see an argument for Cooks vs Cooper, but not really Cooks vs Beckham.

 
Biabreakable said:
Well Cooks has been about as good as Amari Cooper.
Click to expand...
I don't know what this has to do with Beckham. But I also don't get why you posted all the stats, either, while using the word "talented" which is different (but the stats also show that Cooks isn't Beckham, so)

 
Concept Coop said:
You don't believe this, right?  
Click to expand...
As rookie prospects I had them in the same tier of a very good WR class.

People may not like Cooks as much as they used to, but he was a 1st round pick and similarly graded prospect to Beckham.

Now Beckham is the most valuable player in fantasy in my opinion, but the difference in talent level as football players isn't orders of magnitude different. 

But I should have realized people would likely over react to such as statement. 

I have Cooks as the 8th best WR for dynasty but I do consider him a tier below Bckham, Evans, Brown, Jones, Cooper, Green. However the more I think about this, perhaps Cooper and Green are not really that much better than Cooks and should drop to that tier, or else Cooks should move up to the top tier.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
What does Cooper have to do with Beckham though?  I could see an argument for Cooks vs Cooper, but not really Cooks vs Beckham.
Click to expand...
I am trying to tier the players, and I can't justify Cooper being the same tier as Brown, Jones ect and not also include Cooks in it.

 
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I doubt Cooper or Cooks will ever go on to be the player Beckham was as a rookie.  We're talking about a guy on pace to be in the top 5 ever conversation.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable said:
Now Beckham is the most valuable player in fantasy in my opinion, but the difference in talent level as football players isn't orders of magnitude different. 
Click to expand...
I don't think I could disagree more.  Beckham is one of the most talented players in league history--and that's not hyperbole.  Brandin Cooks?!

 
Why are we talking about draft pedigree three years into a player's career. Who cares how anyone had them ranked coming out, we have three entire seasons worth of evidence that Beckham is on another level compared to Cooks, period.

So is Green, if we're just talking talent.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Pretty big gap for me. Shepard is a pretty replaceable WR3 to me long term who will have some big weeks in PPR. I like him but I think he'll be a better real life asset to the Giants than fantasy asset. Seems like a high floor low ceiling type.

Thomas only has Brees for a limited amount of time but I think he's WR1 material for the Saints either way. He's very, very good and should get more targets consistently.

How does this help in the context of swapping them for a two round bump in an IDP startup? No idea haha.
Click to expand...
This.

And Cooks (who I like more than most) isn't Beckham.

 
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