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Player #17 Community Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Who would you rank 17th in a 12 team dynasty league, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DEF PPR with standard sc

  • Total voters
    67
B

Brisco54

Footballguy
TY Hilton takes the third pick of the 4th round (16th overall), but with 18 of 77 votes.  Pick 1.3 was added to the list by an "Other" vote.  Jarvis Landry lost what little support he had, being the only option not to receive votes.    That poll/thread can be viewed here:https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754265-player-16-community-dynasty-rankings/

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

Alshon Jefferey and Aaron Rodgers each received exactly one nomination.  Since its a tie, the winner is the first nominated, Alshon Jeffrey.

This will keep the voting options at 10, which is a good number.  

Time to pick #17

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton
 
Went Gronk too.

As for who to add next round, Kelce or Reed, whoever others like more. Rodgers is close, and will be my pick to be added once Kelce and Reed have been added.

 
thatguy said:
Went Gronk too.

As for who to add next round, Kelce or Reed, whoever others like more. Rodgers is close, and will be my pick to be added once Kelce and Reed have been added.
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Is your nomination for Kelce or Reed?  I will only add one unless there is a tie in the current poll opening up two slots.  Note that I have one vote for Rodgers that carries over from last round, so unless you can get a 2d for your TE, the player added will be Rodgers (tie goes to the first nominated).

On my personal opinion, I would not trade Kelce straight up for Gronk at this point, and I do not put Reed in the same tier as those two.

Kelce is a YAC god for TE and his only real draw back (KC not using him enough) appears to have evaporated in the second half of last season.


Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce ranked second in the NFL with 655 yards after catch in 2016, and he was the only tight end to rank in the top 15 in the category.


Meanwhile the objection to Reed (health) is still front and center.  That plus he has evolved into a binge/bust guy.  A whopping 99 of his 170 fantasy points last year (PPR) came from 4 games.  

Gronk is still fantasy gold if he is healthy, but that back injury scares me.  

Kelce has no health concerns.  He has not missed a game in his three years.  His running style is one that avoids the big hit more than Gronk or Reed.  Ask yourself, which one will still be fantasy relevant at age 33 (i.e. the next Gates) and I think the only answer is Kelce.

In any given season, Gronk or Reed might score more than Kelce, but if you want me to pick who will score the most total points over the next 4 seasons, I would go Kelce.

 
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Reed is ahead of Kelce in my book.  Rodgers is still ahead of Luck too, but I know I will be in a minority on that, and I get the case for Luck.

Who to add next, were I running the poll, would at least partly be position-based.  It makes sense to have a couple options to choose from at each position so we can see what the consensus is between close options, imo.

 
Brisco54 said:
Is your nomination for Kelce or Reed?  I will only add one unless there is a tie in the current poll opening up two slots.  Note that I have one vote for Rodgers that carries over from last round, so unless you can get a 2d for your TE, the player added will be Rodgers (tie goes to the first nominated).

On my personal opinion, I would not trade Kelce straight up for Gronk at this point, and I do not put Reed in the same tier as those two.

Kelce is a YAC god for TE and his only real draw back (KC not using him enough) appears to have evaporated in the second half of last season.


Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce ranked second in the NFL with 655 yards after catch in 2016, and he was the only tight end to rank in the top 15 in the category.


Meanwhile the objection to Reed (health) is still front and center.  That plus he has evolved into a binge/bust guy.  A whopping 99 of his 170 fantasy points last year (PPR) came from 4 games.  

Gronk is still fantasy gold if he is healthy, but that back injury scares me.  

Kelce has no health concerns.  He has not missed a game in his three years.  His running style is one that avoids the big hit more than Gronk or Reed.  Ask yourself, which one will still be fantasy relevant at age 33 (i.e. the next Gates) and I think the only answer is Kelce.

In any given season, Gronk or Reed might score more than Kelce, but if you want me to pick who will score the most total points over the next 4 seasons, I would go Kelce.
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I would say Kelce had two issue. Usage and red zone usage. The usage issue looked a lot better last year but the lack of red zone usage is still an issue.

I don't view Reed as a boom/bust guy at all. Gronk had a lot of the same issues last year which is they played in games they were clearly not 100%. But even if you remove that from the equation the point remains that for two straight years Jordan Reed has been the #1 TE in the NFL, both seasons, in PPG PPR production. I call that consistent, not boom/bust.

Frankly I think Reed should be in conversation with Gronk but people are never going to see it that way and so conversely I would never trade Gronk straight up for Reed. As I said Reed been the more productive per game player the last two seasons, he's played more games. Both have immense injury risk.  Reed has missed a ton of games with an assortment of injuries and of course has the huge concussion worry hanging over his head but I think he's only had one surgery in his career and it was fairly minor knee procedure in 2015. To me that's not any worse than a guy who has gone under the knife 8 times and most of them were major type surgeries(though 4 alone were for one issue I think). But we are talking about the second back procedure for a guy who many teams took off draft board due to degenerative back issue, this is no small thing.

 
I don't think it is a very easy choice between Kelce and Reed. 

Kelce has less injury risk in his favor but Reed puts up stronger numbers when he plays. To me it is so close that who you choose tells something about your tolerance for risk.

Generally I am willing to take risks to gain an advantage, but in this case I think I would prefer to have Kelce, but at the same time, it is so close, I guess I would like to know what others think about that.

If both players were in the poll, then we could see who the community prefers between these two, if you only add one of them, you won't.

I wouldn't vote for either yet, but I think both Kelce and Reed are likely in the same tier as the other players available I would choose ahead of them. Gronk is the last player left of the current tier before the next one starts for me, although I do struggle with the question if Cooks and Allen should be in this tier as well.

 
I can't believe some of the choices. Dez seemed so obvious to me for the past few rounds. Ashlon? Sammy? I guess most draft for very longterm pipe dream upside? 

 
I'd much prefer Reed to Kelce. Reed provides a huge advantage relative to the field (when on the field). Kelce had an outlier season (IMO). He's more 70/850/4 guy than a 85/1100/4 guy. I think his 37/435 split is more likely the norm than the 48/690 he put up over 2nd half of the year. Kelce doesn't provide the positional advantage that the other two provide and therefore he's way below the he top several tiers of RB/WR and outside my top 60 overall. 

 
ratbast said:
I can't believe some of the choices. Dez seemed so obvious to me for the past few rounds. Ashlon? Sammy? I guess most draft for very longterm pipe dream upside? 
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Are you saying alshon and Sammy shouldn't be on the list now or can't believe they're still around?

 
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jeaton6 said:
ratbast said:
I can't believe some of the choices. Dez seemed so obvious to me for the past few rounds. Ashlon? Sammy? I guess most draft for very longterm pipe dream upside? 
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Are you saying alshon and Sammy shouldn't be on the list now or can't believe they're still around?
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pretty sure he means he doesn't see Watkins or Jeffery being worth this high a pick.  I actually agree with him on Alshon, but Sammy has the ability to perform at the level of these other receivers if he stayed healthy.  I'd probably have Watkins 6th out of the players on the list, but Alshon is last. (that could change if the right team signed him in the next month or two)

 
jeaton6 said:
I'd much prefer Reed to Kelce. Reed provides a huge advantage relative to the field (when on the field). Kelce had an outlier season (IMO). He's more 70/850/4 guy than a 85/1100/4 guy. I think his 37/435 split is more likely the norm than the 48/690 he put up over 2nd half of the year. Kelce doesn't provide the positional advantage that the other two provide and therefore he's way below the he top several tiers of RB/WR and outside my top 60 overall. 
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How can you identify last season as an outlier season?  Kelce missed his rookie year so last year was his third year in the league, and like many third year receivers, everything started to click.

2013 - redshirt

2014 - 67, 862, 5  -- rookie

2015 - 72, 875, 5  -- 2d year

2016- 85, 1125, 4  -- third year ramp up.

That looks a lot more like the traditional receiver path to elite than it does a single outlying year.

 
Brisco54 said:
How can you identify last season as an outlier season?  Kelce missed his rookie year so last year was his third year in the league, and like many third year receivers, everything started to click.

2013 - redshirt

2014 - 67, 862, 5  -- rookie

2015 - 72, 875, 5  -- 2d year

2016- 85, 1125, 4  -- third year ramp up.

That looks a lot more like the traditional receiver path to elite than it does a single outlying year.
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Very easily. How many TEs consistently put up 1100 yards every year? His first 2 years were basically the same. His first half 2016 was similar to those 2 years as well. Then he got hot and had 5 100 yard games in the last 8 weeks of 2016 and his resulting numbers spiked (for a lot of reasons). Extremely high YAC. Something like 60% of total yardage I believe. People often like to look at the outlier years as the new baseline only to get burned the following year by regression. Too many examples to list. Unsustainable production. 2017 I believe he regresses to something more like 75/900/5. Under 200 PPR FPs. 

 
ratbast said:
I can't believe some of the choices. Dez seemed so obvious to me for the past few rounds. Ashlon? Sammy? I guess most draft for very longterm pipe dream upside? 
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Did you miss the "Dynasty" part of the title? 

FUBAR said:
pretty sure he means he doesn't see Watkins or Jeffery being worth this high a pick.  I actually agree with him on Alshon, but Sammy has the ability to perform at the level of these other receivers if he stayed healthy.  I'd probably have Watkins 6th out of the players on the list, but Alshon is last. (that could change if the right team signed him in the next month or two)
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Alshon I'll give him. Sammy Watkins is potentially equal to Dez for long term value IMO 

jvdesigns2002 said:
I think it's time to start thinking about adding Jordy Nelson to the list.
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Yes

 
jeaton6 said:
Very easily. How many TEs consistently put up 1100 yards every year? His first 2 years were basically the same. His first half 2016 was similar to those 2 years as well. Then he got hot and had 5 100 yard games in the last 8 weeks of 2016 and his resulting numbers spiked (for a lot of reasons). Extremely high YAC. Something like 60% of total yardage I believe. People often like to look at the outlier years as the new baseline only to get burned the following year by regression. Too many examples to list. Unsustainable production. 2017 I believe he regresses to something more like 75/900/5. Under 200 PPR FPs. 
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No, his first two years were not the same at all.  His first and third year were basically the same.

If you are looking for an outlier year for yards, it was actually 2015.

Yards per target were 9.9 in 2014 and 9.6 in 2016 but only 8.5 in 2015.

Yes, 2016 was a tale of two seasons, but it was not Kelce that changed.  Of the 15 weeks (excluding bye week and week 17),  Week 1, 3, 8, 11,13,14, & 16 he exceeded 10 yards per target... that seven weeks!  In four more he exceeded 8 yards per target (That is what you would expect from a top 10 TE).  Plus the remaining four include the ridiculous 15 target game with "only" 101 yards.   So in terms of personal performance he had down weeks week 2,4, & 10.  That's it.  What changed after week 10 was that the chiefs started sending him on more routes.  The stats show that is all it takes for Kelce to succeed... send him on routes.  

Before you argue that this is what makes 2016 the outlier, note that in 2014 his yards per target were even higher.  

More importantly Kelce is elite in terms of yards per route run.  In his first real year he finished 2d to Gronk in 2014 and I can't find the stat but I read that he led NFL TEs this year in yards per route run (but can someone check on that and get 2015 as well?).  

Thus, the only thing holding Kelce back was that they simply did not send him out on routes.  When he did run a route, he got targeted, caught the ball and accumulated yards all at an elite level.

Regression is always possible, but the peripheral stats say that it is not probable.  Kelce's individual performance is about as consistent as they come.

 
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Dr. Brew said:
Did you miss the "Dynasty" part of the title? 

Alshon I'll give him. Sammy Watkins is potentially equal to Dez for long term value IMO 

Yes
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I didn't miss the Dynasty aspect. I just feel Dez has enough left that he can outscore Sammy over the next few years, which if we were drafting in a start up dynasty id be looking to win now also when the stakes are all even and the teams aren't loaded or not yet. Ive owned them both. I don't trust Bills or a WR that could end up anywhere at some point vs Cowboys with a solid machine seemingly built. Watkins is a stud in the making who hasn't actually proven to be healthy, is that foot ever going to be right again? If so when? Anyway those are the factors that would influence me here. 

 
Brisco54 said:
No, his first two years were not the same at all.  His first and third year were basically the same.

If you are looking for an outlier year for yards, it was actually 2015.

Yards per target were 9.9 in 2014 and 9.6 in 2016 but only 8.5 in 2015.

Yes, 2016 was a tale of two seasons, but it was not Kelce that changed.  Of the 15 weeks (excluding bye week and week 17),  Week 1, 3, 8, 11,13,14, & 16 he exceeded 10 yards per target... that seven weeks!  In four more he exceeded 8 yards per target (That is what you would expect from a top 10 TE).  Plus the remaining four include the ridiculous 15 target game with "only" 101 yards.   So in terms of personal performance he had down weeks week 2,4, & 10.  That's it.  What changed after week 10 was that the chiefs started sending him on more routes.  The stats show that is all it takes for Kelce to succeed... send him on routes.  

Before you argue that this is what makes 2016 the outlier, note that in 2014 his yards per target were even higher.  

More importantly Kelce is elite in terms of yards per route run.  In his first real year he finished 2d to Gronk in 2014 and I can't find the stat but I read that he led NFL TEs this year in yards per route run (but can someone check on that and get 2015 as well?).  

Thus, the only thing holding Kelce back was that they simply did not send him out on routes.  When he did run a route, he got targeted, caught the ball and accumulated yards all at an elite level.

Regression is always possible, but the peripheral stats say that it is not probable.  Kelce's individual performance is about as consistent as they come.
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Kelce's production bump largely correlated with Maclin injury and to a lesser extent lack of RB involvement in passing game brought about by Ware/Charles injuries. They sent him on more routes because they had no other alternative in the passing game and he had to (and did) step up. It's not like all of a sudden they realized maybe we should send him on more routes and he will produce...it was out of necessity. If you would like to believe that it's that simple then I'm selling you Kelce all day.They know what they have in Kelce. I'm not denying Kelces talent as a top TE but I am denying this is the start of a trend. Or that it actually is the continuation of a trend that started in 2014 with a bump along the road in 2016. 

 
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