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Faust

Dynasty & Redraft: QB Patrick ‘Showtime’ Mahomes II, Chiefs

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i'm looking forward to seeing what this kid can do.

 

he's really undervalued in dyno imo.

 

his dash is about the same as dak prescott's, but his agility is way better. he strikes me as the type of QB who will run his way comfortably into QB2 territory and even have low end QB1 / "what the heck" upside in some weeks.

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He looked truly special at times. Obviously he's going to make some mistakes, and for sure he's got that Brett Favre confidence in his arm that's going to cause some INTs, but his upside is out of this world. His best plays all looked effortless. Being coached by Andy Reid will be huge. 

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20 minutes ago, The Jacket said:

He looked truly special at times. Obviously he's going to make some mistakes, and for sure he's got that Brett Favre confidence in his arm that's going to cause some INTs, but his upside is out of this world. His best plays all looked effortless. Being coached by Andy Reid will be huge. 

Was it just me or did his release seem a little slow?  He seemed to have a slight wind up.  Or for sure he slaps the ball before he throws, which can mean the difference between a good play and a bad play.  Here is a 9 min video of every pass from his debut - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr-UWQgyRB4  He looks very good however and any deficiencies can be corrected.  Seem to have good accuracy with the mid-range passes, but was off on several deep balls.

Edited by JohnnyU

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37 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Was it just me or did his release seem a little slow?  He seemed to have a slight wind up.  Or for sure he slaps the ball before he throws, which can mean the difference between a good play and a bad play.  Here is a 9 min video of every pass from his debut - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr-UWQgyRB4  He looks very good however and any deficiencies can be corrected.  Seem to have good accuracy with the mid-range passes, but was off on several deep balls.

That was noticeable.  A couple of the errant deep throws that I saw included Von Miller bearing down on him, so that might have had something to do with it.

But just go look at the play at the 8:13 mark of that video... ARM. TALENT.  That play made me mumble "no way" under my breath as I watched it.  (Followed, of course, by the bonehead rookie play just 2 plays later).

The arrow is pointing way up on this guy.  I would be very excited if I were a Chiefs fan, knowing that I have Mahomes, Hunt, and Hill for the next few seasons.

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Just now, pinequick said:

That was noticeable.  A couple of the errant deep throws that I saw included Von Miller bearing down on him, so that might have had something to do with it.

But just go look at the play at the 8:13 mark of that video... ARM. TALENT.  That play made me mumble "no way" under my breath as I watched it.  (Followed, of course, by the bonehead rookie play just 2 plays later).

The arrow is pointing way up on this guy.  I would be very excited if I were a Chiefs fan, knowing that I have Mahomes, Hunt, and Hill for the next few seasons.

I agree, I really like him.  Peyton Manning's foot work was terrible his rookie year, so he has areas of improvement.  I love his mid range accuracy and arm strength.

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Obviously made some mistakes, but nearly 300 yards and a game winning drive is a solid rookie debut - especially considering his supporting cast of 2nd string WRs, a 2nd string OL, and a fullback as the primary ball carrier. There are definite areas for improvement, but he has the ability to make plays that few NFL QBs can. 

In 2018 Smith is due $20.5MM and the Chiefs are currently looking at -$4MM in cap space - I think it's easy to put 2 and 2 together there. Get a pick or two by trading him to a QB-needy team, get some salary cap breathing room, and give the super-talented young guy the keys to the offense. He's going to do some scary stuff with Hill and Kelce.

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Patrick Mahomes All-22 vs. the Broncos: Buckle Up

Pretty good breakdown of his game. Closing section:

Quote

One game is a wildly small sample size, and in the grand scheme of things could mean very little. All you can take from a single game is a list of traits and HOPE that a player will demonstrate the good ones often and the bad ones not-so-often. That’s an important warning, because we can’t just take this game and say with any kind of certainty what the future holds for Mahomes. Keep that in mind as you read my last paragraph...

After watching the film and charting the things that I do, I sincerely believe that very few quarterbacks could have played as well as Mahomes did on Sunday. The circumstances he was thrown into (a group of mostly backups with no chemistry, a wildly aggressive defense that had considerably more starters playing, on the road, etc) were quite difficult, yet he played very well. Not “for a rookie,” not “for his first start.” I mean he played legitimately, genuinely well in a way that compares favorably to a good starting veteran quarterback. I’m having to restrain myself from being utterly ecstatic after watching the film, because guys... this kid can PLAY.

 

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Just an update: The Jets took a safety with the sixth pick of the 2017 draft.  

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Following Tuesday night's trade of Alex Smith, second-year QB Patrick Mahomes is fully expected to enter 2018 as the Chiefs' starter.

The Chiefs and Redskins agreed to a deal that will send Smith to D.C. when the new league year opens March 14. Mahomes started the Chiefs' meaningless Week 17 game against the Broncos, but it was anything but meaningless in the grand scheme of things, as K.C. got a look at the future. And it appears bright. Mahomes went 22-of-35 for 284 yards with a supporting cast of backups. Mahomes can make any throw on the field and should open things up even more with Tyreek Hill deep. Smith at times was averse to taking chances downfield, though he did open up more in a career 2017 season. Mahomes will certainly have his growing pains, but he has scintillating upside. Dual-threat Mahomes is a dark horse fantasy QB1 as soon as 2018.

Source: Kansas City Star 

Jan 30 - 9:41 PM

 

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Thoughts on Kelce's value with Mahomes?

Smith and Kelce had some really good chemistry and fit together with Smith throwing the ball a lot underneath. Mahomes is more of a gunslinger (benefiting Hill's game), so it will be interesting to see how Kelce is affected.

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2 hours ago, zamboni said:

Thoughts on Kelce's value with Mahomes?

Smith and Kelce had some really good chemistry and fit together with Smith throwing the ball a lot underneath. Mahomes is more of a gunslinger (benefiting Hill's game), so it will be interesting to see how Kelce is affected.

Kelce will get his, he's not one that I would worry about. 

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Anyone feel Mahomes can finish just as good (or better) than Alex Smith?  Or how about anywhere close?

Smith was top 4 in points and top 5 in points per game for QB's in my league.  In that offense with a better arm to stretch tyriik hill I'm expecting some big games

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20 hours ago, Tackling Dummies said:

Kelce will get his, he's not one that I would worry about. 

Can’t imagine the WRs having less value than when Smith was throwing to them. Didn’t he have a year where he didn’t throw a td to a wr all year?

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7 hours ago, flipcuplegend said:

Anyone feel Mahomes can finish just as good (or better) than Alex Smith?  Or how about anywhere close?

Smith was top 4 in points and top 5 in points per game for QB's in my league.  In that offense with a better arm to stretch tyriik hill I'm expecting some big games

It’s too early for me to dive into rankings for next year but I’d say it’s likely that Mahomes will be top 10 for me.  I love his talent, and he walks right into a great situation surrounded by a ton of talent.  He’ll likely be inconsistent but I think we will see some monster weeks throughout the year.  

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Sports Illustrated reports the rookie-year progress of Patrick Mahomes played a role in the Chiefs trading Alex Smith.

"He’s way ahead of schedule," a Chiefs coach told MMQB’s Albert Breer. "Hearing the play, calling it, motions, shifts, coverage recognition, all of that is much easier. Throwing the football has always been the fun part for him." Mahomes will get a full offseason as Kansas City’s starter after spending his first year learning behind Smith. A college producer with dual-threat upside, Mahomes has the makings for a 2018 breakout.

Source: Sports Illustrated 

Feb 2 - 7:01 PM

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Another x-factor here is what does KC add to the offense...Hunt-Kelce-Hill are a big 3 but after that there is a big gap...they could really use a few more weapons overall, especially since they are going with a rookie QB...it is easy to be high on Mahomes right now...he is in a great spot and it feels like every report from him the past year has been a positive...if KC makes a splash or 2 this offseason and adds a few more weapons Mahome's value could really increase...

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Quote

Eric Galko

@OptimumScouting

Patrick Mahomes gonna be a Top 5 AFC QB by the end of next season. #Chiefs set for a decade.

Quote

 

Mark Dulgerian 

@MarkDulgerianOS

Kelce on Mahomes..."it’s fun to watch him in practice. Because he’s on the scout team, kind of just being a backyard quarterback, throwing it every way imaginable"

Get ready KC fans

 

 

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14 hours ago, Boston said:

Another x-factor here is what does KC add to the offense...Hunt-Kelce-Hill are a big 3 but after that there is a big gap...they could really use a few more weapons overall, especially since they are going with a rookie QB...it is easy to be high on Mahomes right now...he is in a great spot and it feels like every report from him the past year has been a positive...if KC makes a splash or 2 this offseason and adds a few more weapons Mahome's value could really increase...

@Boston - if the Chiefs can add a few extra pass catchers in free agency or in the draft this offense could be truly special.

I am also optimistic that Mahomes will be capable of boosting the production from Chris Conley.

Alex Smith explains why the Chiefs missed Chris Conley more than you think

Edited by Faust

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Sammy Watkins reportedly expected to sign 3-year, $48M deal with the Chiefs

Excerpt:

The big armed second-year quarterback out of Texas Tech will now have Watkins, the speedy Tyreek Hill and the lethal Travis Kelce at his disposal, along with Kareem Hunt out of the backfield.

With Reid's complex blend of college and pro schemes, the Chiefs have unlimited upside offensively.

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On 2/2/2018 at 5:38 PM, Boston said:

Another x-factor here is what does KC add to the offense...Hunt-Kelce-Hill are a big 3 but after that there is a big gap...they could really use a few more weapons overall, especially since they are going with a rookie QB...it is easy to be high on Mahomes right now...he is in a great spot and it feels like every report from him the past year has been a positive...if KC makes a splash or 2 this offseason and adds a few more weapons Mahome's value could really increase...

welp...

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Sean Payton was not sold on the quarterback draft class this year:

Six Ways To Draft Day: How First Half-Dozen Picks May Go

 

Excerpt:

“I don’t see Luck in this draft, and I don’t see Carson Wentz, who I liked a lot coming into the draft,” Saints coach Sean Payton said Saturday. He’s in the market for a passer. “I’d feel a little bit uneasy if I were at the top of this draft and I decided I had to have a quarterback. The pressure to get a quarterback is so great in this league, I get that. But we can’t create ’em. I wouldn’t be surprised if only one of these guys is left standing in four or five years, and if so, I’d guess it would be Sam Darnold.”

 

 

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Sean Payton had a pretty strong grade on Mahomes last year, and it sounds like the Saints did not have any quarterbacks from the 2018 draft class graded higher than Mahomes:

New Orleans Saints pass on quarterback in first round: NFL Draft 2018

Excerpt:

Quote

"Clearly, I don't know that we had anybody graded like we had Patrick Mahomes," Payton said in reference to the quarterback selected by the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 10 overall in 2017.

Edited by Faust

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1 hour ago, Wise Old Owl said:

is Faust a person? or just a bot

He is a wonderful, outstanding resource of a person. 👍

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7 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

is Faust a person? or just a bot

Just wait until his training camp updates and you'll never question him again.

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On 5/10/2018 at 7:01 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Well, the buy low window sure closed quick.  He's DLF's #8QB in May's mocks.

I'm kind of excited about him.  You know what I'm not excited about? 

Losing OC Nagy and replacing him with Eric Bieniemy, an ex-RB and RB coach with couple years OC experience at an incredibly ####ty Colorado team (4 wins in 2 years).

KC offense sputtered and was recharged when Nagy took over the play calling from Reid.  Now they have Andy and from everything I read, a really fine cheerleader in Bieniemy. 

Cause for pause. 

KC guys please help here.    

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1 minute ago, Binky The Doormat said:

I'm kind of excited about him.  You know what I'm not excited about? 

Losing OC Nagy and replacing him with Eric Bieniemy, an ex-RB and RB coach with couple years OC experience at an incredibly ####ty Colorado team (4 wins in 2 years).

KC offense sputtered and was recharged when Nagy took over the play calling from Reid.  Now they have Andy and from everything I read, a really fine cheerleader in Bieniemy. 

Cause for pause. 

KC guys please help here.    

Andy Reid is one of the better coaches I'd want my QB to have.  Not a cause for pause to me.

Biggest negative I see is a a lot of tough weeks in his schedule next year. The 4 division games against Denver and SD with the Jags and Rams is a lot of potential rough weeks. Schedule makers did his fantasy owners no favors giving him his best division matchup, the Raiders, in week 17.

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There is not a player that I am more excited to see on the field than Mahomes. Hill, Watkins, Kelce, Hunt.... At minimum we should see a pretty good highlight reel at the end of year. This kid has a missile launcher attached to his shoulder.

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12 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Andy Reid is one of the better coaches I'd want my QB to have.  Not a cause for pause to me.

Biggest negative I see is a a lot of tough weeks in his schedule next year. The 4 division games against Denver and SD with the Jags and Rams is a lot of potential rough weeks. Schedule makers did his fantasy owners no favors giving him his best division matchup, the Raiders, in week 17.

Thanks meno.  Not concerned about week 17 though - any league that plays week 17 gets what they deserve.  

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21 minutes ago, Binky The Doormat said:

Thanks meno.  Not concerned about week 17 though - any league that plays week 17 gets what they deserve.  

Welcome and we agree on week 17. My point was that's one of the easiest weeks on his schedule and it's a wasted week for fantasy. When the schedule came out I hoped he'd get Denver or SD that week.

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possibly one of the toughest 6 game stretches EVER to open the season....people will probably start freaking out....but kid is the real deal....and has weapons

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I'm leery of Mahomes, at least as far as this season is concerned. I don't quite get the hype off the week 17 game last season. He might not be ready.

I think Mahomes' FF outlook in 2018 is anywhere from a disaster to a decent FF starter. I believe he's most likely to be in the range of inconsistent with the potential to have some really nice weeks sprinkled in. In other words, a decent FF backup.

Edited by Football Jones

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Second-year players primed for a breakout year in 2018

Excerpt:

Quote

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

2017 Overall Grade: 79.9*

The hype train that followed the big-armed Patrick Mahomes to Kansas City barreled down the tracks full speed as soon as the Chiefs pulled the trigger on him at No. 10 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Now, with all road blocks (Alex Smith) removed, Mahomes is in a position to live up to such high expectations.

Mahomes did start one NFL game in 2017, where he completed 22-of-35 passes for 284 yards and one interception en route to a 79.9 overall game grade. But, given the limited sample size, his college production may be more telling of his future than his lone start.

Among draft-eligible quarterbacks in 2017, Mahomes ranked fifth in adjusted completion percentage (75.4) and second in adjusted completion percentage (82.9) and passer rating from a clean pocket (125.5) his final year at Texas Tech. Cast at the helm of head coach Andy Reid’s detailed offense, Mahomes will be in a position to succeed, especially with such a strong supporting cast in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Of course, it’ll be in his hands to take advantage of the situation.[/quote]

 

Edited by Faust

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15 hours ago, Football Jones said:

I'm leery of Mahomes, at least as far as this season is concerned. I don't quite get the hype off the week 17 game last season. He might not be ready.

I think Mahomes' FF outlook in 2018 is anywhere from a disaster to a decent FF starter. I believe he's most likely to be in the range of inconsistent with the potential to have some really nice weeks sprinkled in. In other words, a decent FF backup.

Pretty much every qb in Andy Reid’s offenses and the guys he’s drafted have been good ffl qbs. I’m a believer.

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Pretty much every qb in Andy Reid’s offenses and the guys he’s drafted have been good ffl qbs. I’m a believer.

I would tend to agree. I think there will be some bumps and bruises along the way with Mahomes, but I don’t think Reid would have jettisoned the steady if not spectacular Smith if they didn’t think the kid could step in right away.

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4 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Pretty much every qb in Andy Reid’s offenses and the guys he’s drafted have been good ffl qbs. I’m a believer.

Or every WCO QB. Way back to Gannon and Grbac, Montana, Favre, Foles, Brees, Rodgers..... Yeah he'll be fine.

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8 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Pretty much every qb in Andy Reid’s offenses and the guys he’s drafted have been good ffl qbs. I’m a believer.

I'm not as much a disbeliever as I am Mahomes being ready right now.

I think there's at least a decent chance he'll struggle in 2018. Longterm outlook remains somewhat positive for me, though.

Edited by Football Jones

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