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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Patrick ‘Showtime’ Mahomes II, Chiefs

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4 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

schedule is going to be a lot tougher next season let's see how he does. If Reid loses in the playoffs, AGAIN, is he even coaching KC in 2019? they fired Marty S for running pretty much the same team as Reid, doing the same things, 13-3 seasons, 1-n-done in playoffs.

Mahomes has put up extraordinary #'s surely they will regress  in 2019, probably putting him at your typical 4200-4500/30 Td QB. there's about 70 of those kind of guys  in the NFL these days. teams will spend the offseason finding ways to beat him. He's not a prodigy like Peyton Manning was, he's not the maestro that Rodgers is. he's having a great year no doubt. Lets see if it continues. 

I'd put him behind guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, Matty Ice, etc..this based on the regression rolling down the tracks and the defenses adjusting in 2019. I'll take the guys who do it year in and year out and have done so for decades now..

Didn't they have a 1st place schedule this year? 

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6 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

schedule is going to be a lot tougher next season let's see how he does. If Reid loses in the playoffs, AGAIN, is he even coaching KC in 2019? they fired Marty S for running pretty much the same team as Reid, doing the same things, 13-3 seasons, 1-n-done in playoffs.

Mahomes has put up extraordinary #'s surely they will regress  in 2019, probably putting him at your typical 4200-4500/30 Td QB. there's about 70 of those kind of guys  in the NFL these days. teams will spend the offseason finding ways to beat him. He's not a prodigy like Peyton Manning was, he's not the maestro that Rodgers is. he's having a great year no doubt. Lets see if it continues. 

I'd put him behind guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, Matty Ice, etc..this based on the regression rolling down the tracks and the defenses adjusting in 2019. I'll take the guys who do it year in and year out and have done so for decades now..

awful post

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6 minutes ago, Super King said:

Didn't they have a 1st place schedule this year? 

They did have a difficult schedule. And many of the easier games were still against teams with good defenses. No chance Reid isn’t back next season even if they get ousted in the first round IMO.

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8 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

They did have a difficult schedule. And many of the easier games were still against teams with good defenses. No chance Reid isn’t back next season even if they get ousted in the first round IMO.

yeah you cannot mess with this combo right now...lets see how they address the RB spot next year too....

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

awful post

He’s one of my favorite posters because he makes me laugh so much. Can’t remember all the players that he said were horrible because they had 1 bad week but I do believe it included the likes of Kamara, Hill and Evans lol

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Going into a tough stadium this weekend so will be interested to see if he can win some people the finals that he put them in.  Last week was just average but one easy catch from being pretty good.

 

 

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6 hours ago, infantsam said:

Going into a tough stadium this weekend so will be interested to see if he can win some people the finals that he put them in.  Last week was just average but one easy catch from being pretty good.

 

 

Which catch? Just curious if it's the Hill one because I think that was going to be called back anyways due to penalty.

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45 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Which catch? Just curious if it's the Hill one because I think that was going to be called back anyways due to penalty.

Point still stands either way.......Tyreek/Mahomes were very close to  having a good game. 

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7 hours ago, infantsam said:

Going into a tough stadium this weekend so will be interested to see if he can win some people the finals that he put them in.  Last week was just average but one easy catch from being pretty good.

 

 

I sure would like to see another 300 yard / 4 TD game like Week 13.

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Im going against him so obviously Im nervous but I have a feeling this game will be like the Ravens game with Seattle running the ball down KC's throats and keeping KC offense off the field. That and being in a tough road environment even vs an average defense I still think we wont see the 40 pt game this week. I can see a 300 yd, 3TD game though which is still awesome.

Edited by shadyridr
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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

Im going against him so obviously Im nervous but I have a feeling this game will be like the Ravens game with Seattle running the ball down KC's throats and keeping KC offense off the field. That and being in a tough road environment even vs an average defense I still think we wont see the 40 pt game this week. I can see a 300 yd, 3TD game though which is still awesome.

+1

Seattle still typically a tough place for visiting teams to play and (for a SNF game the Hawks need to have) I would expect it will be a raucous atmosphere. Seattle D not what it once was but I am (obviously) hoping they play out of their minds and make life miserable for KC. Mahomes has seemed pretty unflappable so far but (at some point) I gotta believe he's going to look like a young QB often looks. Admittedly, might just be wishful thinking on my part.

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2 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Im going against him so obviously Im nervous but I have a feeling this game will be like the Ravens game with Seattle running the ball down KC's throats and keeping KC offense off the field. That and being in a tough road environment even vs an average defense I still think we wont see the 40 pt game this week. I can see a 300 yd, 3TD game though which is still awesome.

Seattle D is nowhere near as good as Baltimore.....and Mahomes still threw for 377.....

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16 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

schedule is going to be a lot tougher next season let's see how he does. If Reid loses in the playoffs, AGAIN, is he even coaching KC in 2019? they fired Marty S for running pretty much the same team as Reid, doing the same things, 13-3 seasons, 1-n-done in playoffs.

Mahomes has put up extraordinary #'s surely they will regress  in 2019, probably putting him at your typical 4200-4500/30 Td QB. there's about 70 of those kind of guys  in the NFL these days. teams will spend the offseason finding ways to beat him. He's not a prodigy like Peyton Manning was, he's not the maestro that Rodgers is. he's having a great year no doubt. Lets see if it continues. 

I'd put him behind guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, Matty Ice, etc..this based on the regression rolling down the tracks and the defenses adjusting in 2019. I'll take the guys who do it year in and year out and have done so for decades now..

they played a first place schedule this year, and probably will next year so not sure how it gets tougher....that first 6 game stretch was BRUTAL and they came out 5-1....honestly at this point it could really only get easier if LAC ends up winning the division....

as far as the rest of your post....I couldn't disagree more with just about everything you said....almost wonder if you have actually watched him play...

and I'd put the % of redraft leagues that he ends up being the #1 QB off the board in drafts at about 99.9%....please come back here next September with your league draft report and show where you pass on Mahomes for the guys you mention......that may actually be hard, because somebody will take him wayyyyyyyy before those guys and you won't even have the chance to pass on him....I can understand saying he will be way overpriced to and you aren't willing to pay what you will need to get him....but saying you will actually pass on him for those guys is taking it a little too far.....IMO

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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count me as a Mahomes owner who is a little nervous this week....night game in SEA on a Sunday....they have all day to get liquored up and SEA and KC have this ongoing thing about who has the loudest outdoor stadium....I'm sure that place will be off the chains....add to the fact that SEA runs the ball more than anybody in the league, and it really could limit KC's possessions...so they will have to be super efficient when they do get the ball....PC will probably go for it on several 4th downs if he needs to....

with that said.....the KC run game isn't offering up a ton right now and it may be on Mahomes to win this thing so the stats should follow....like some above said about the Ravens game....turnovers could be huge in this one if they allow some empty and/or extra possessions depending on which side you are on....

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I had my doubts on this guy going into the season... not really doubts but I didn't buy in.

Lesson learned.

I find myself feeling the same way about Baker for next year.  Hmmm.

Edited by matuski

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21 hours ago, matuski said:

I had my doubts on this guy going into the season... not really doubts but I didn't buy in.

Lesson learned.

I find myself feeling the same way about Baker for next year.  Hmmm.

Baker showed a lot this season. I imagine he will be on most peoples list for next year.

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On 12/24/2018 at 6:29 AM, boilerdave said:

Thanks for the Championship Patrick.

I bought a Patrick is Mahomie tshirt to wear to next year’s draft where I’ll receive my trophy.

Edited by boilerdave

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6 hours ago, boilerdave said:

I bought a Patrick is my Homie tshirt to wear to next year’s draft where I’ll receive my trophy.

I play in a 2 player keeper league and we have a KC Chief fan joining the league next year. I loved telling him telling Mahomes was one of my keepers-wrecked his next years season plans already...

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Quote

Associated Press named Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes its 2017 Most Valuable Player

He also won Offensive Player of the Year. Mahomes took the league by storm in his first full year — leading the Chiefs to an AFC-best 12 wins while throwing for 5,097 yards and a 50:12 TD/INT ratio. He easily won out over Drew Brees, who managed nine votes. Mahomes had better consistency than Brees in 2018 with at least three touchdowns in 10-of-16 games. His PFF grades were also MVP worthy, with Mahomes leading the NFL in wins above replacement (7.49) and big-time throws (49) — a testament to his elite arm strength. Mahomes didn’t show any dropoff without star RB Kareem Hunt for the final five weeks and postseason, taking the Patriots to overtime in the AFC Championship. The future couldn’t be brighter for Mahomes, the youngest MVP since Dan Marino. With his supporting cast returning, there’s room for Mahomes to take another step forward in 2019.

Feb 2 - 7:02 PM

 

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How do people think his value is impacted *if* Tyreek is gone.

I would think he's still a clear cut notch above the rest of the QBs out there (fantasy wise), but the ceiling has to come down a bit. Chiefs could get another speedster, but would be hard to replace Hill as has been so much more than that.

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7 minutes ago, bombjack said:

How do people think his value is impacted *if* Tyreek is gone.

I would think he's still a clear cut notch above the rest of the QBs out there (fantasy wise), but the ceiling has to come down a bit. Chiefs could get another speedster, but would be hard to replace Hill as has been so much more than that.

Odds were that he would fall back closer to the pack anyway (those kind of seasons are outliers). 

Without Hill his numbers are going to even drop more. He has some amazing arm talent but Hill opens up the offense and makes plays for Mahomes - the rest of the WR group is pretty mediocre and I'd imagine Kelce is going to get some extra attention with no Hill.

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Have him in a few redrafts with keepers and plan on acquiring him in almost every league I am in......will have to admit I was a little disappointed with his week 16 matchup at CHI......he is pretty matchup proof but as it turns out he gets probably the worst possible matchup/location imaginable for he and his teammates from a FF perspective....

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2 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Have him in a few redrafts with keepers and plan on acquiring him in almost every league I am in......will have to admit I was a little disappointed with his week 16 matchup at CHI......he is pretty matchup proof but as it turns out he gets probably the worst possible matchup/location imaginable for he and his teammates from a FF perspective....

True but Week 16 last season was at Seattle. A seemingly bad matchup...he did ok.

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25 minutes ago, boilerdave said:

True but Week 16 last season was at Seattle. A seemingly bad matchup...he did ok.

and its a sunday night....so I think that helps in a strange sorta way....think KC has guys who like the spotlight....

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45 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

and its a sunday night....so I think that helps in a strange sorta way....think KC has guys who like the spotlight....

He's also going up against Vic Fangio the week prior vs DEN...  So if you're still alive week 16, he could have had a good look at what concepts CHI might be running against him week 16.

EDIT: Just realized that Pagano is now the DC of CHI, not holdover from Fangio's staff w/ them...  So my comment is likely irrelevant to the week 15/16 matchups :)

Edited by eNdblu

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I don't think I can afford him in redrafts or keeper/dynasty.

He's due to some regression to the mean regardless of roster.  Then you likely lose Hill.  He'll still be elite, but I can't justify his price.

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

I don't think I can afford him in redrafts or keeper/dynasty.

He's due to some regression to the mean regardless of roster.  Then you likely lose Hill.  He'll still be elite, but I can't justify his price.

Agreed. I'd be more likely to take Kelce in round 2 than take Mahomes in round 3 or whatever round someone will reach for him in.

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the video game numbers will see some regression most likely in all circumstances....even if everyone is back, etc....those kind of seasons are not sustainable....will he still give you a decent amount of separation from the #2 fantasy QB...probably.....and maybe a good deal of separation "from the pack"....yeah probably.......so how much and how early you want to pay for it will be up to the individual drafter.....my guess is that there will be at least one guy in every draft that will chase last years stats...and pull the trigger before people think it's "worth it"....it will most likely depend on if you are that guy or not.....

I say as baseline (depending on league scoring rules 6 pts vs 4 for TD's etc).....that Mahomes has a chance to go in the second round of almost every 12 team draft....probably 10 teamers too....so in may ways, it will depend on your draft slot...because he won't make it back to you in the third......so to me....you have to go into your draft with your draft spot and decide if he is worth a second round pick to you.....and in some cases really a first....because the guy in the 12 hole knows his only chance at him will be with 1.12 or 2.01...

eta: I'm not worried about his schedule....the 6 game stretch to start the year last year was supposed to be murderer's row as well....the Chiefs will need him to still win almost every game....he is still going to put up numbers even in tough matchups....he will be option A on every play.....their defense should improve, but won't be dominant so the Chiefs will keep their foot on the gas in almost every matchup....no lead will be safe neccessarily....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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