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QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC (2 Viewers)

Dinsy Ejotuz said:
I get it!  Like you're saying I'm comparing Mahomes to Brett Favre the Hall of Famer and not Brett Favre the NFL prospect.  Very very clever.
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You remember what Brett favre looked like as a prospect 30 years ago? You must have quite a memory.

 
Mahomes has the same problem that all air raid QBs have - they have to unlearn a lot of what would be bad habits at the next level and then retrain themselves substantially in order to play in the NFL.  And the curse is worse with the best of them.  The better they have the air raid ingrained in their muscle memory and reactions, the harder it is for them to shake these traits that are undesirable at the NFL level and then get themselves completely rebooted.

It doesn't seem to matter how much physical talent they have, there is just no way to predict how successful they will be in what is essentially a total remake of themselves.  It's why there is such a poor transition rate for these guys.  They probably need to sit and relearn for 3 to 4 years before they can make such a dramatic transition, and the mental aspect of the retraining is gruelling.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Who do we think are the great air raid QB prospects who weren't able to make the transition?
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Here are some that people might recognize.  There are more who are more forgettable than these guys:

Foles

Geno Smith

Couch

RGlll

Kolb

Heupel

Kingsbury

Keenum

Beck

Harrell

Jason White

Weeden

and by the early looks of it, quite possibly Goff

Now, how about listing the Air Raid QBs who have become franchise QBs.  It'll be a bit easier task than the one you gave me.

.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
Here are some that people might recognize.  There are more who are more forgettable than these guys:

Foles

Geno Smith

Couch

RGlll

Kolb

Heupel

Kingsbury

Keenum

Beck

Harrell

Jason White

Weeden

and by the early looks of it, quite possibly Goff

Now, how about listing the Air Raid QBs who have become franchise QBs.  It'll be a bit easier task than the one you gave me.

.
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How do you define what an air raid offense is? Did Bradford or RG3 or Garappolo play in air raid offenses? What about Marriota?

The above list is mostly a list of late round qbs who were flawed prospects for reasons other than their college offensive system. 

 
maf005 said:
How do you define what an air raid offense is? Did Bradford or RG3 or Garappolo play in air raid offenses? What about Marriota?

The above list is mostly a list of late round qbs who were flawed prospects for reasons other than their college offensive system. 
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There are 4 1st rounders on that list, including 2 1.01s and a 1.02.  There are also 3 2nd rounders - all taken in the top third of the 2nd round.  The guys on that list were all prolific passers in college and yet none has made any kind of a lasting mark as a NFL QB.  And there are more than just those listed, none of which have become franchise QBs at the NFL level.

So now you're going to defend your position by trying to cloud the definition and by denial?  

How about answering my simple question:  How many air raid QBs in college have developed into franchise NFL QBs?  Please name them.

.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
There are 4 1st rounders on that list, including 2 1.01s and a 1.02.  There are also 3 2nd rounders.  The guys on that list were all prolific passers in college and yet none has made any kind of a lasting mark as a NFL QB.  And there are more than just those listed, none of which have become franchise QBs at the NFL level.

So now you're going to defend your position by trying to cloud the definition and by denial?  

How about answering my simple question:  How many air raid QBs in college have developed into franchisr NFL QBs?  Please name them.
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What is the bust rate (as defined by not being a franchise NFL qb) for all qbs regardless of college system? 

I already answered your question though..RG3 was extremely promising before being injured, Bradford's still starting after 7 years in the league, Marriota seems to be a legit franchise qb, Foles was prolific early in his career (which conflicts with your stance that their skillset doesn't transition well early in their career), Garappolo is promising. It's not like the "air raid" system has been around forever so we don't have the biggest data sample yet

 
maf005 said:
What is the bust rate (as defined by not being a franchise NFL qb) for all qbs regardless of college system? 

I already answered your question though..RG3 was extremely promising before being injured, Bradford's still starting after 7 years in the league, Marriota seems to be a legit franchise qb, Foles was prolific early in his career (which conflicts with your stance that their skillset doesn't transition well early in their career), Garappolo is promising. It's not like the "air raid" system has been around forever so we don't have the biggest data sample yet
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Oregon doesn't and didn't run an air raid offense.  Odd inclusion of Mariota there.

So you consider Bradford a franchise QB?  Think LA (or STL or whoever they are this week) and PHI would agree?  Think he starts if Teddy comes back?

One good year by RGlll makes him a franchise QB?

3 starts and as many fumbles as he has passing TDs in his career make Garappolo a franchise QB?

Why can't you simply be honest?  We both know the answer, and so does everyone else.  To date no air raid QB has succeeded at the NFL level.  Make an argument why Mahomes is going to be different instead of dissembling.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Oregon doesn't and didn't run an air raid offense.  Odd inclusion of Mariota there.

i'm considering any non-pro style offenses. If you want to define air raid as something else, go ahead. But I can promise you the same "system" concerns were used against MM

So you consider Bradford a franchise QB?  Think LA (or STL or whoever they are this week) and PHI would agree?  Think he starts if Teddy comes back?

1. I think "franchise qb" is an unreasonable expectation to set

2. Yeah I think Bradford is still the best qb prospect since PFM and playing in STL severely limited his potential.

One good year by RGlll makes him a franchise QB?

You're being disingenuous if you don't consider pre-injury RG3 a success 

3 starts and as many fumbles as he has passing TDs in his career make Garappolo a franchise QB?

I never said he was a franchise QB

My argument for Mahomes is that he is an elite prospect in terms of physical measurables, arm talent, and rare scrambling ability. (As I've said above, just scroll up to see it)
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Okay, so to defend yourself you are going to move the goal posts, parse, and create realities that never occured.

And you clearly think that simply by being a great athlete that Mahomes will do sonething no other QB from an air raid offense has been able to pull off - and that doesn't even touch how wildly divorced his college offense was and how he ran in it compared the the offenses used in the NFL.

I'll leave it at that from my part since this is obviously not going to develop into any kind of productive discussion.  Have a great day.

.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
Now, how about listing the Air Raid QBs who have become franchise QBs.  It'll be a bit easier task than the one you gave me.
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I was more interested in who the good prospects were that failed because they were air raid QBs.  Most of the guys you listed had other problems.  Goff too.

Foles and RGIII are two I liked that haven't panned out though.  RGIII is a bit tricky since IMO the problem was basically that he got hurt and then didn't want to expose himself anymore.

Cam's a star and Marcus Mariota looks to be doing OK though (assuming he can avoid injuries).

Love Mahomes as a prospect and air raid has no bearing on it for me.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Cam's a star and Marcus Mariota looks to be doing OK though (assuming he can avoid injuries).
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Those two weren't air raid QBs.  Neither was Dak.  They all ran spread option in college.  Big difference.

What are we talking about here?  We're grazing all over the pasture.

 
Tool said:
So he looks like one of the greatest QB's of all-time? 
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Fwiw, Favre is the guy I thought of first too. Not to say Mahomes is nearly as good but his style seems similar.  Funny thing though, the reason Favre comes to mind is most QBs who free lance like he did don't make it.  

To make an opposite extreme comp, Manziel.  Mahomes is presumably somewhere in between (which is a huge gap obviously)

 
The MMQB's Peter King writes the Cardinals "like" Texas Tech QB Pat Mahomes, and "might love him."




King speculates the Browns seem to like Mitchell Trubisky and Mahomes and pick at No. 12 following their first overall selection. Who could possibly move down? King notes the 49ers, Bears and Jets as teams he heard are interested in trading out. We would throw the Bills in as another team who might trade up. Mahomes certainly fulfills Bruce Arians' love of big arms.

 
 
Source: The MMQB 
Apr 17 - 10:20 AM
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ESPN's Jon Gruden Analyzes 2017 QB Draft Class

Excerpt:

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech


"Mahomes is the most intriguing player in this draft. His arm talent is special. He can really rifle the ball, not only with velocity and accuracy, but he can do it from awkward positions. He can throw the ball side arm, off balance and under duress. He can really rip it. I just think he's got a big time arm. He's athletic. He's got a huge upside. It's going to take a little time to make the transition as he was a true junior. You can't forget that."
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In discussing Texas Tech QB Pat Mahomes with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, NFL scouts mentioned Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre when discussing Mahomes' improvisational ability.

"I may be crazy but when I watch his tape, just as a scout, I get excited," a personnel man said. "He’s a guilty pleasure. We all have biases. Going in, Texas Tech, dink, dunk, dink, dunk, this guy cannot translate. I left saying, ‘Love this guy. He’s so much fun.’ He pulls plays out of his (expletive) like you wouldn’t believe. It’s not dink and dunk. He believes in his arm so much that it’s a problem sometimes. He’s not ready right now. I’m not comparing him to Aaron (Rodgers), but that natural sense of making plays when they break down is unusual." A longtime favorite of Rotoworld's Thor Nystrom, Mahomes' stock has skyrocketed during the pre-Draft process. He's currently being projected between the Cardinals' pick at No. 13 and the Texans' pick at No. 25. "He is a great kid and willing to do everything," said another scout. "But he’s playing in this gunslinger spread offense (expletive) that no quarterback has ever succeeded from, really."

 
 
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel 
Apr 23 - 10:44 AM
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ESPN's Todd McShay said the Cardinals and Chiefs "continue to come up in conversations" about Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes.

Arizona has the No. 13 pick while Kansas City owns the No. 27 selection in the first round. The Cardinals should have a chance to grab Mahomes at their draft slot if they believe he can be the eventual successor for Carson Palmer, but McShay does not think the Texas Tech product will still be on the board when the Chiefs' turn comes around. Mahomes should be the third quarterback selected behind North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky and Clemson's Deshaun Watson.

Related: Chiefs, Cardinals
 
Source: ESPN 
Apr 25 - 12:02 PM
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Leigh Steinberg, the agent for Texas Tech QB Pat Mahomes, indicated that he believes that his client's ceiling is the Cardinals at No. 13.
"Let me just say this: I think it’s most likely that he goes to a team that has an incumbent quarterback who’s nearing the end of his career and I think that his range is probably the 13th pick in the first round and up," Steinberg said. The Cardinals would most definitely fit that bill, as Carson Palmer is now 37 years old and has entered the twilight of his pro career. Other teams in the back half of the first round which would also hit that criteria include the Ravens (No. 16), the Giants (No. 23) and the Chiefs (No. 27). Mahomes won't be present at the draft itself on Thursday, as he has instead decided to spend his potentially life-changing moment surrounded by friends and family.

 
 
Source: redraiders.com 
Apr 25 - 5:57 PM
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ESPN's Jeremy Fowler believes the Steelers have "genuine" interest in Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes.

Fowler's specific word is "intrigue." The Steelers have admitted they must begin their search for Ben Roethlisberger's successor, but Fowler doesn't expect them to "force" a pick. Pittsburgh doesn't pick until No. 30 on Thursday. Mahomes will likely be gone before then.

Related: Steelers
 
Source: ESPN.com 
Apr 27 - 1:18 PM
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Bills beat writer Matthew Fairburn reports that "those around the league expect Texas Tech QB [Pat] Mathomes to go top-10."
Fairburn additionally reports that the Chiefs "have entertained" a potential trade up from No. 27 in order to obtain Mahomes' services, as they are "known to love him." A top-10 slot would be even higher than that floated by the gunslinger's own agent, as Leigh Steinberg said earlier this week that the Cardinals at No. 13 would be his client's probable ceiling. A report on NFL Network cited a source close to Mahomes late on Thursday as saying that the quarterback would likely be going to either the Chiefs, Texans or Cardinals.

 
 
Source: Matthew Fairburn on Twitter 
Apr 27 - 5:28 PM
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2017 NFL Draft Live Analysis: Fantasy Football Values Round 1

Excerpt:

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, QB – This is a draft and develop pick. Mahomes has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this draft, but he’s not ready to start, which is why this makes sense for the Chiefs having him sit behind Alex Smith. Mahomes has major mechanical issues, but he has everything you want in a NFL quarterback with the body, arm, athleticism, you name it… just not the mechanical fundamentals. Andy Reid and the Chiefs can help him more than most teams, which makes him an intriguing dynasty stash, but he’s off the board for redraft.
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Chiefs traded up with the Bills to select Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft.

Tired of the Alex Smith era and its hard ceiling, the Chiefs have surrendered picks No. 27 and 91 along with their 2018 first-rounder to take a shot on a quarterback of the future. Mahomes (6’2/225) made 29 starts for the Red Raiders, posting a career 13-16 record with a 63.5% completion rate, 8.3 yards-per-attempt average, and 93:29 TD-to-INT ratio. Mahomes’ father Pat was an 11-year major league pitcher, mostly with the Twins. On tape, Mahomes’ strengths are his cannon arm and velocity with an ability to make plays amid chaos. Mahomes’ weaknesses are shoddy footwork and a tendency to veer from structure as a natural-born gunslinger who lacks discipline but plays with extreme aggressiveness. A 4.0 college student, Mahomes’ smarts and skill set are in no doubt. He is a classic boom-bust prospect with a top-five NFL quarterback ceiling.
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bigmarc27 said:
The thought of the Chiefs going from Captain Checkdown to Mahomes makes me chuckle a bit. 
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Capt checkdown to uncle Rico. Whip it sidearm over that mountain, shoulder shrug, TD! He's pretty much the opposite of smith. Perhaps Smith will start taking a few more chances with an early pick pushing him. 

 
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