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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Patrick ‘Showtime’ Mahomes II, Chiefs

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1 minute ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Dam Prescott is smiling.

Why? Dak is not even in the same universe as Mahomes. If he thinks he deserves anything close to that, he is nuts. If he thinks he is worth that, he won’t get a long term deal from DAL. And eventually he’ll become a free agent and other teams won’t pay him that either. 

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The more top QBs get paid, the more valuable the young bucks on rookie deals will become. Mahomes will be getting 10-15x what the next big thing will be getting. Sure, Mahomes is good, but not as good as a hot shot youngster and $40+ million spent on other players. 

Obviously a star QB on a rookie deal is better for roster building but that does not mean it is impossible to put a Super Bowl caliber team around a highly paid QB

In recent years it's tough to find Super Bowl winning teams with highly paid QBs but that is more so because of the Patriots hogging a lot of the SB wins.

There have been plenty of teams that were every bit good enough to win it all that had expensive QBs

You're also way overestimating the probability of the next big thing being close to as good as Mahomes is

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Why? Dak is not even in the same universe as Mahomes. If he thinks he deserves anything close to that, he is nuts. If he thinks he is worth that, he won’t get a long term deal from DAL. And eventually he’ll become a free agent and other teams won’t pay him that either. 

Yeah but he's going to get 36 million plus now. That's why he's smiling. 

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This is crazy, but I’d say it’s the market. The Kansas City Football Team May have gotten a steal. When we look back on this deal in 6-7 years, it’s more likely that it was fair or it was in the Kansas City Football Team’s favor. It’s unlikely it’s in Mahomes’ favor as he isn’t going to bust, but I suppose he could become injury prone like anyone else. I like the deal for both sides in the end. Mahomes is making a great move cashing out and not having a contract hanging over his head and the Kansas City Football team doesn’t have to worry about QB for a decade

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Why? Dak is not even in the same universe as Mahomes. If he thinks he deserves anything close to that, he is nuts. If he thinks he is worth that, he won’t get a long term deal from DAL. And eventually he’ll become a free agent and other teams won’t pay him that either. 

Dak is still a top 8-12 QB. Nowhere near Mahomes but he will get his 35 million---whether from the Cowboys or from a team like the Colts, Saints, Steelers after their current QB retires or the Bears/Raiders if they decide their current QB isn't cutting it and prefer signing to drafting a mid 1st round prospect (assuming they don't get top picks)

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He really should have connected his salary, or at least a portion of it, to the salary cap.

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5 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

He really should have connected his salary, or at least a portion of it, to the salary cap.

I agree. This is why the Kansas City Football Team won this deal in my eyes

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

The more top QBs get paid, the more valuable the young bucks on rookie deals will become. Mahomes will be getting 10-15x what the next big thing will be getting. Sure, Mahomes is good, but not as good as a hot shot youngster and $40+ million spent on other players. 

 

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Edited by GordonGekko

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21 minutes ago, KChusker said:

You're also way overestimating the probability of the next big thing being close to as good as Mahomes is

And you are underestimating just how much a team could roster with $40+ million. Yes, Mahomes will be better than Lamar, Kyler, or the next Deshaun. But that team could also have Aaron Donald, DeAndre Hopkins, and someone else on top of it. That was what I was driving at . . .  not just comparing QBs. 

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4 minutes ago, GordonGekko said:

Only if you draft the right players.

Though, across the league in general, teams owning late first round picks will see an uptick in the picks potential trade value. Because of that 5th year option.  As first round picks move towards having the entire first round end up with guaranteed contracts ( it will get there soon enough), a miss on a first round pick then operates as a tax on your roster. You are stuck paying him, why not keep him? But there's the opportunity cost of time, the roster spot and the snaps taken by said player implied.

It works both ways. The team with the Uber expensive QB will need to do really well drafting to fill up the team. And other teams will need to draft well to find the next big thing at QB. Either way, if a team can’t draft they won’t go far. Unless they are NE.

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To those saying it's team-friendly: How much land does one man need?

He's more than set for life. He's on his way to being somebody who could be involved in partial ownership, if that's the measuring stick.

Good work all around. Tying it to the cap assumes the cap trends upwards. As one person pointed out, in this pandemic, nothing is certain. There may be more uncertainties to come. Better to get the money now.

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

And you are underestimating just how much a team could roster with $40+ million. Yes, Mahomes will be better than Lamar, Kyler, or the next Deshaun. But that team could also have Aaron Donald, DeAndre Hopkins, and someone else on top of it. That was what I was driving at . . .  not just comparing QBs. 

With the increase in cap four years from now he'll cost as much as the next big thing and be an even better player than he is right now. This deal might cause some cap strain, sure, but you're getting the best current qb who's started his career on a historical pace, in his 3rd year in the league.  Ten years of a Marino/Manning/Farve combo at qb is worth the price.

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Seems like a smart deal for KC actually. Only $10M as a signing bonus, small annual salaries and really big roster bonuses each year. It basically turns into one year deals that would leave very little dead cap space if they cut him. As is, it looks like 2027 could be the big decision year: a $49M roster bonus due that year.

They’ll still find it hard to maintain a Super Bowl team giving 20% of their cap to one player each year IMO, but paying him that much was going to happen anyway so I think they seem to have done a good job protecting themselves long term while also locking up Mahomes. And Mahomes made sure he’ll get paid boatloads assuming his play doesn’t fall off a cliff.

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Patrick Mahomes completed 24-of-32 passes for 211 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs' 34-20, Week 1 win over the Texans on Thursday night.

The Texans got off to a 7-0 lead, but the Chiefs proceeded to hang 31 unanswered points on the board and cruised into the fourth quarter with a commanding lead. It's the main reason for the depressed numbers for Mahomes, though he did sling a trio of touchdown passes, hooking up with Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill for one each. The night could have been bigger, too, but Demarcus Robinson dropped two would-be touchdowns. By the time the final quarter rolled around, Mahomes was just sticking the ball into Clyde Edwards-Helaire's belly in order to kill the clock. The best quarterback in the sport, Mahomes gets the Chargers in Week 2.

- Rotoworld

 

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I don't like Mahomes to return good value on his ADP with as good as CEH and the running game in general looked tonight. No way he throws enough. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

I don't like Mahomes to return good value on his ADP with as good as CEH and the running game in general looked tonight. No way he throws enough. 

Yes it will be interesting to see. Only 200 yards tonight.  I could see Dak having a much better year, but it's way early to say.

And unless KC cleans up its run blocking inside the 5, they are gonna need Mahomes to throw to get it in the end zone.

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

I don't like Mahomes to return good value on his ADP with as good as CEH and the running game in general looked tonight. No way he throws enough. 

KC D did a fairly solid job through 3 qts tonight, until garbage time hit.

That's now a trend that dates back through the NFL playoffs last year and the latter part of last regular season. They probably aren't a top 10 unit, but if they can hover around average or better, it may limit Myhomie from justifying his ADP price, especially if their running game performs. That said, CEH looked soft at the goal line. Maybe just first game jitters. Maybe not.

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2 hours ago, LawFitz said:

KC D did a fairly solid job through 3 qts tonight, until garbage time hit.

That's now a trend that dates back through the NFL playoffs last year and the latter part of last regular season. They probably aren't a top 10 unit, but if they can hover around average or better, it may limit Myhomie from justifying his ADP price, especially if their running game performs. That said, CEH looked soft at the goal line. Maybe just first game jitters. Maybe not.

Yeah running issues at the GL might help but another problem is they are going to kill everybody. So unless they are going to start running up scores similar to the 2007 Patriots he simply won't need to throw that much. 

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Patrick Mahomes completed 27-of-47 passes for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Chiefs' Week 2 overtime win over the Chargers.

It was a struggle all game long, but MVPs find ways to win ugly. The Chargers zone defense and defensive end pressure limited Mahomes' big plays. He had to grind things out underneath in the second half and in overtime, only adding one deep TD conversion to Tyreek Hill. Mahomes will have bigger games ahead against far easier defenses, but even today, the Super Bowl MVP threw for 300 yards. The game of the year awaits Mahomes. Next Monday night, the Chiefs will play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. He'll be a top-two fantasy quarterback once again.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill show off 'special connection' on 'spectacular throw'

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"That was a spectacular throw, and for [Hill] to make that grab, that was a great catch," Reid said. "Those two have a special connection between them. We keep seeing it week after week, year after year here. It's time-tested."

Mahomes needed every bit of his arm strength to get the ball to Hill. According to NFL NextGen Stats, Mahomes was running to his right at a speed of 11.2 mph when he released the ball and threw the ball 52.9 yards in the air. It's only the third touchdown pass over the past four seasons in which a quarterback threw the ball 50-plus yards of air distance while running 10-plus mph. Chiefs coach Andy Reid said no other quarterback could have made the throwing while rolling out as Mahomes was.

 

Quote

Hill had to go to the ground to make the catch. But he popped back to his feet quickly, before Chargers defenders had a chance to get to him. He then made his way into the end zone. He said there aren't many quarterbacks anywhere who can make a throw like that.

"Pat -- I feel like -- is in a lane of his own," Hill said. "Pat [and] probably Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson [could make that throw]. With me being fast and Pat having the arm strength and the accuracy, just to trust you to even throw that is just amazing to me.

"He kind of overthrew me because I had to lean forward for it a little bit. But it was a good ball, though."

 

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On 9/11/2020 at 6:27 AM, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

He doesn't need to throw very much.

Still gonna have nearly 400 ff points if he scores like he did tonight every game. 

Which may be, like, 200 points less than Russ, Kyler and Cam.     😄

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10 hours ago, Truebluey said:

Which may be, like, 200 points less than Russ, Kyler and Cam.     😄

And Dak and Allen. Russ -- and the four other guys -- have come out on fire, the other four guys especially relatively to passing QBs in standard 4 pt. pass touchdown leagues where that extra six is golden for the running QB. Russ was extraordinarily mobile, but I no longer think of his rushing prowess when considering him. Might be that time in his career, though I can't tell because he seems pretty comfy in the pocket. 

But back to the topic of the thread. Mahomes rushed for over fifty yards yesterday when everything broke down -- the LA Chargers have a mighty good defense that flummoxed Joe Burrow the week before last and now Mahomes this one. 

I'm heavily invested in Mahomes. I'd rather he stay injury-free than have to rush the ball often, much like Wilson. For standard fantasy, those two aren't quite as valuable season-long as the runners, but they're still up there and passable. 

One thing to watch: The way the Chiefs dynamic is going, I'm not sure how good their receiving corps is sans Watkins. It's really a bunch of unproven guys with speed. You could almost see the defense keying on CEH out of the backfield, as if that were a focal point of this past game. This sort of development (not great receivers available and CEH's being keyed-on) doesn't bode well for either Mahomes or CEH in fantasy right now, especially the receivers and Mahomes. It's always better if you're surrounded by guys like Lamb, Gallup, and Cooper than Hill, Robinson, Hardman. Game plans vary from week-to-week, though, and who knows what other defenses have in store for Patrick and the passing game. 

He still has Kelce, too, but teams are likely to double both Kelce and Hill and let the rest of the defense play one-on-one with the others. 

Regardless, I have Mahomes on a dynasty team and in redraft on one team in Superflex. I'm giving him a long, long leash before officially wondering what's up. He hasn't been anything close to bad the first two games. That said, I'd pass on him in the first or second of redraft standards for these reasons listed above.

Edited by rockaction
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Very nice analysis Rockaction. Pretty much my thoughts exactly, and yes, their receiving corps doesn't inspire much trepidation. 

CEH is an interesting factor here. Defenses can't double both Kelce and Hill and also bracket CEH, so CEH out of the backfield receiving is likely to be used often. As it was during Sunday's comeback. He made some nice catches, including a beauty for 25 yards in contested coverage that was wiped out by a holding call. 

Also a lot depends on gamescript. I still don't see the Chiefs trailing a lot, which also minimizes Mahomes passing potential. 

In short, he's got one of the most reliable floors of any QB, but you likely greatly overpaid to get him this year, given that a Minshew/streaming combo will likely give you similar points. 

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22 hours ago, Faust said:

According to NFL NextGen Stats, Mahomes was running to his right at a speed of 11.2 mph when he released the ball and threw the ball 52.9 yards in the air. It's only the third touchdown pass over the past four seasons in which a quarterback threw the ball 50-plus yards of air distance while running 10-plus mph.

This is pretty amazing, to me.

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30 minutes ago, lardonastick said:

This is pretty amazing, to me.

Yep. That is. He good.

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Took Mahomes at 3.5 and although he obviously hasn't been bad, I am regretting it. VBD had him and Jackson as the clear top choices at this point but considering how far the next tier of guys fell (and how well they're doing) its clear I made a mistake.

I probably would have taken Mike Evans ) and the taken a QB in the 7th.

So I could have had Evans and Russell Wilson instead of Mahomes and Cooks.

Told myself going in that I wouldn't take a QB early. But I love watching the guy play (and he got me to the finals last year)  and DD said it was a good move. So I pulled the trigger. I'll know better next year.

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9 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

Told myself going in that I wouldn't take a QB early. But I love watching the guy play (and he got me to the finals last year)  and DD said it was a good move. So I pulled the trigger. I'll know better next year.

I still think he's extravagantly priced in dynasty. He's like QB11 right now, and one, according to trade calcs, should expect at least a first round pick in return, probably plus something else worthy. He's basically ranked as QB1, but I don't see enough rushing yards to sustain dominance. Plus, like upthread, Chiefs receivers outside of Tyreek aren't really that good once you get past the speed aspect (which you can never really totally do, but still...)

But to your point: I would not take him in standard redraft. I'd pass and let everybody else have him at that ADP. I did take him first-round Superflex, but his VBD was in line with my pick and floor is so important in the league I'm in for that.

Edited by rockaction

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51 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

Took Mahomes at 3.5 and although he obviously hasn't been bad, I am regretting it. VBD had him and Jackson as the clear top choices at this point but considering how far the next tier of guys fell (and how well they're doing) its clear I made a mistake.

I probably would have taken Mike Evans ) and the taken a QB in the 7th.

So I could have had Evans and Russell Wilson instead of Mahomes and Cooks.

Told myself going in that I wouldn't take a QB early. But I love watching the guy play (and he got me to the finals last year)  and DD said it was a good move. So I pulled the trigger. I'll know better next year.

 

That's my feeling also. Although I clearly made a mistake in the one league I took him early in, it IS fun to have him for once (never have before) and take pure, unadulterated joy out of every amazing play he makes. Although I am sure Russ owners feel the same way this year.

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What are people worried about? He had a down week 1, but he scored 29 in my format this week and we know the ceiling goes higher. I guess it’s different if you overdrafted in redraft, but as a dynasty owner it’s smooth sailing. 

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

What are people worried about? He had a down week 1, but he scored 29 in my format this week and we know the ceiling goes higher. I guess it’s different if you overdrafted in redraft, but as a dynasty owner it’s smooth sailing. 

I don't think anybody is worried. But I get the sneaking suspicion that he's probably just not necessarily QB1 in dynasty scoring like all the publications have him. He's worth a high first according to them. That's tough in 1 QB leagues to be that valuable.  *shrugs* Least that's what I was trying to convey. 

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Patrick Mahomes completed 31-of-42 passes for 385 yards and four touchdowns in the Chiefs' 34-20, Week 3 win over the Ravens Monday night.

The Ravens tried to blitz Mahomes relentlessly in this one and failed miserably, as Mahomes was 16-of-20 with three touchdowns against the blitz. He absolutely wrecked DC Wink Martindale's unit in the opening 30 minutes, with 260 yards and three scores at the half. Mahomes was magical in the pocket, evading pressure, and finding his open weapons down the field. His 49-yard touchdown to Mecole Hardman was particularly impressive off his back foot running away from a free defender. Mahomes' other three scores went to Anthony Sherman, Tyreek Hill, and LT Eric Fisher. It was a big bounce-back game for the Chiefs after they were stymied a bit by the Chargers last week. The Chiefs get a showdown with Cam Newton and the Patriots in Week 4.

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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3 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I wonder what I'd have to add to Lamar to get him in dynasty PPR start 1 QB. Not SF...

A lot more than 3 days ago.

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