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RB Joe Mixon, HOU (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Man I would kill for the numbers Dj/Gurley were putting up in those bad years right now. DJ put up 1400 yards, 50 receptions, and 10 TDs that season and was a back-end fantasy RB1. Even Gurley's 1300yds, 43rec, 6 TD look like a pipe dream right now. Mixon is on pace to finish with 950 yards, 32 receptions, and 2 TDs
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Mixon is 1 year younger than Ekeler. Doubt this works. As a Mixon owner this would be an easy decline
dipandglide
Footballguy
Biggest bust of the year. I still have hope and put most of the blame on Cincy being a dumpster fire. I’m going to throw some buy lows out this week and see if I can get him on the cheap.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Is this guy running behind the worst offensive line in the history of football?
Feels like every RB thread I go into, somebody's claiming their guy has the worst O-line in football.
Mixon
Gordon/Ekeler
Gurley
Montgomery
Michel (hyperbole obviously but their run blocking has not been good)
Bell
Dolphins obviously
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It seems almost impossible that a guy with this much talent could have 10 attempts and 2 yards, no?
Complaining about an "awful", "trash" O-Line is one of the favourite pastimes of fans of almost every team. The fact is hardly any of the O-Lines in the league have enough talent or depth.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Define talent.
He's big and fast. So is Kalen Ballage and Christine Michael. Obviously he is much better than Ballage, but isn't it at least possible that a guy who has been completely replaceable by Giovanni Bernard isn't the otherworldly talent that people are clinging to.
Lionsfan011
Footballguy
The complaints about the Cincy oline are warranted. They lost two starters before the season even began in their rookie OT to injury and their best OG unexpectedly retiring. Their LT has been out with a concussion plus suspended. Their 3rd OT and another starting OG have been out injured. That's a shattered oline.
Back to Mixon. What I'm more worried about long term is there's a real possibility Green moves on next year. The Bengals could also draft a QB high next year. Mixon could spend next season with the team breaking in a rookie QB with less skill position talent. Sure, he could be the focal point of the offense in that scenario but I'd fear teams would gear up to shut down Mixon and force the rookie QB to beat them.
Back to Mixon. What I'm more worried about long term is there's a real possibility Green moves on next year. The Bengals could also draft a QB high next year. Mixon could spend next season with the team breaking in a rookie QB with less skill position talent. Sure, he could be the focal point of the offense in that scenario but I'd fear teams would gear up to shut down Mixon and force the rookie QB to beat them.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
You seem to be discounting free agency.
You may have Bridgewater, Winston, and possibly Flacco looking for other teams. Yes, The later two dont really look amazing, but they are serviceable and give you at least 6-8 games to get your rookie ready (more if possible). You also still have Dalton you could throw out there until the rookie is ready.
FA will allow CIN to bring in some good OL; they dont need to draft all of them.
They may already have the qb of the future on their roster... I don't believe that enough to get into a major debate about it, but it's certainly possible.
As far as AJG... IMO he moves on because he will ask for more money than it's worth to CIN. That hurts Mixon, I can agree, but again I think this offense needs a qb and OL and would be much better than what it is right now.
I'm not saying this offense looks great moving forward for 2020, but it's not as gloomy of a picture as your post paints
Hmmmm, it's pretty gloomy. Bengals aren't active in free agency. Their biggest signing was Bobbie Hart last year, 3 years 21 million.
And that guy was a cast off of the Giants who had the worst o line 2 years ago. No crystal ball here, i dont know what they will do with Green, Dalton, etc....but they never are very active in free agency. They will build through the draft. Thattis their MO
matttyl
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I had a PM discussion with another poster where he said something along the lines of:
"I wouldn't pay [what I had offered to me] for Mixon, but I also wouldnt trade him for that either."
I completely agree with this. His value is goofy. If you own him you arent selling him for what people are willing to pay as market value.
IMO Mixon has top 5 capability. He lacks the supporting cast. That can change on a dime with a FA signing, draft pick/s and returning healthy players in 2020.
Look how long it took for Derrick Henry owners to come down in price, although it took through midway of 2018 for his stock to fall, just prior to his breakout. I would predict an equal path for Mixon. His value may drop in 12 months to what his market is today.
Let's remember, he is only 23... and hes already shown flashes of what he can do. It's obvious his struggles are related to the supporting cast
matttyl
Footballguy
Completely agree with all of this. And I fully expect his value to turn, which is why I'd like to pounce on him before it does. I was expecting Ekeler's value to drop after Gordon's return, but that hasn't been the case - and if (when) Gordon leaves this offseason, if they don't draft another RB early, his value could actually remain quite high. Or at least that's how I'd like the current Mixon owner to see it.
matttyl
Footballguy
It was a joke. Though at some point the Mixon owner (who keep putting him in his lineup without any real other options) might get fed up.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Mixon looks awful out there, even disregarding the team. Other elite RBs go to bad situations and you consistently get these runs where you're like "wow, I can't believe he got 2 yards on that play, he should've been tackled for a loss". Mixon has just been getting tackled for a loss, shrugging, and jogging back to the huddle.
On the plays where he does get the ball in space he doesn't try to make that extra cut or broken tackle to turn it into a huge play. Get the 15 yards, fall over.
I remain hopeful that it is an attitude thing. It reminds me a lot of Gurley in his bad year with Jeff Fisher. Things were so bad around him that he just looked disinterested in putting in the extra effort when it wasn't going to matter. That's how Mixon looks to me.
Obviously Gurley bounced back in a big way the next year when Fisher was finally kicked out of town, and Mixon has the skillset to do something similar. Hopefully Mixon can do the same althought I am less optimistic that there will be a coaching change there. Hopefully they can upgrade their line in big ways.
On the plays where he does get the ball in space he doesn't try to make that extra cut or broken tackle to turn it into a huge play. Get the 15 yards, fall over.
I remain hopeful that it is an attitude thing. It reminds me a lot of Gurley in his bad year with Jeff Fisher. Things were so bad around him that he just looked disinterested in putting in the extra effort when it wasn't going to matter. That's how Mixon looks to me.
Obviously Gurley bounced back in a big way the next year when Fisher was finally kicked out of town, and Mixon has the skillset to do something similar. Hopefully Mixon can do the same althought I am less optimistic that there will be a coaching change there. Hopefully they can upgrade their line in big ways.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade Mixon for Ekeler in a dynasty league, even if Gordon had his legs amputated.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
LivingTheDream
Footballguy
Mixon has 1 year remaining on his rookie deal.
It's not out of the realm of possibility he holds out in the offseason and is eventually traded.
It's not out of the realm of possibility he holds out in the offseason and is eventually traded.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
I’m thinking about offering Gurley for Mixon in a package deal kind of thing. Gurley worries me and I hate that his value died so quickly.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I'm thinking that ankle injury (or a new injury?) may be affecting Mixon despite the positive results of the MRI. The last two weeks have been just terrible.
I was thinking this before the season, but what leverage would he have to hold out coming off such a brutal season?LivingTheDream said:
It's a lost year. As a dynasty owner, I guess you just have to cross your fingers and hope for the best, as age is still on his side. On the other hand, RBs are generally shorter-term assets and personally I'm not that inclined to wait around for them to produce (more happy to do that with WRs). The disturbing thing to me is that they don't seem to be using him at all in the passing game. Gio is out there when they go to hurry up mode and, more generally, he's barely getting any targets. That limits his upside tremendously.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Gio signing an extension was a real bummer. Was hoping he'd be out of the picture this offseason and Mixon could pick up those garbage time opportunities, of which there are many on this team.
I agree on the holdout. I don't think I can really recall someone holding out coming off of a really bad season. Usually it's the opposite. I don't really see how he has any leverage as it's not like a bad season and then a holdout season back to back are going to make him a very attractive FA option in terms of getting a big deal, especially at a position that is so relectant to be given big deals in the first place. Also as a 2nd round pick he hasn't really gotten paid yet so giving up $1.2m is a lot of money for him.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
The Bengals are not getting the ball to Bernard much either. He has played 45% of the Bengals snaps while Mixon has played on 54%
Mixon has 105 opportunities on 213 offensive snaps this is 49% of the time he is on the field.
Bernard has 50 opportunities on 178 offensive snaps this is 28% of the time he is on the field.
Mixon has 105 opportunities on 213 offensive snaps this is 49% of the time he is on the field.
Bernard has 50 opportunities on 178 offensive snaps this is 28% of the time he is on the field.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Love this post ...
Except you should add in your personal thoughts going forward.
we wanna know what to do with this guy. Redraft and Dynasty.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I dont know what to do. I have Mixon this year too.
As we discussed earlier on in the thread, the offensive line injuries and retirements have turned out to be very bad for this offense. This situation with the offensive line was not good in 2018 either, so I reasoned that Mixon was able to produce anyways under similarly bad circumstances.
This season he hasn't. I speculate that he has an injury he is playing with because he wasn't playing this bad last season.
Maybe the downgrades at offensive line are the main reason for the poor performance here, I am not sure. I just know their offensive line wasn't good last year either, and Mixon was able to thrive under those circumstances. So what is really different here?
According to FBO the Bengals are 31st in adjusted line yards. They were 22nd in this metric in 2018 so the blocking is worse. It still doesn't fully explain for me why Mixon is so bad.
Its almost half the season already. I don't see how you can start him right now. He is young so perhaps a buy low target for dynasty.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Does anyone think CIN moves on voluntarily in a trade this offseason?
They have Tray Williams and Rodney Anderson, who yes looks to he done for but stranger things have happened. They have a lot of holes and may find that Mixon holds more value as a trade peice than to keep him around for 2020. Idk maybe it's wishful thinking... He may not hold much value with how hes been doing. Heres hoping he holds out and TB comes knocking
They have Tray Williams and Rodney Anderson, who yes looks to he done for but stranger things have happened. They have a lot of holes and may find that Mixon holds more value as a trade peice than to keep him around for 2020. Idk maybe it's wishful thinking... He may not hold much value with how hes been doing. Heres hoping he holds out and TB comes knocking
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Not sure. I think I’d lean on the side of them keeping Mixon (cheap, supposed stud RB) and build up that offensive line.
Maybe I’m high, but I swear there was tons of hype around this offense coming into the season. Yes we all knew/tonight the OLine was going to be an issue - but we were blinded by the coaching change. What’s his face coming from the McVay tree ... blah blah blah great things for Mixon.
It’s still always going to be the Bengals. So I wouldn’t expect any trades. Best we can hope for is an influx of offensive line help, perhaps a top QB in the draft.
sucks right now. But I’m still a big Mixon believer going forward. Not this year. Excellent buy low dynasty buy IMO
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I really like Mixon still, but I agree it's a bit disappointing to say the least. There was hype about how dynamic the offense could be this year. The OL was the biggest hit I think. A last second retirement of their best OL and the rookie getting hurt. that's 40% of the OL...
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He is on a cheap deal and likely has very little trade value right now, so I think a trade would be unlikely.
And of course every team thinks they are a super bowl contender in the off season so they really have no reason to want to move him.
LivingTheDream
Footballguy
He could also pull a Ramsey or Antonio Brown and get himself off the Bengals. Unhappy players are taking drastic measures nowadays.
He comes from OU. He's used to winning.
He's got to be miserable in Cincy and it's effecting his play.
I love his talent but that situation is god awful. Their defense is aging and in worse shape for the future than the offense. Even if they get a new QB and 2 new starting o-lineman, they're gonna be a 2-5 win team for a couple years. He doesn't play when they're behind. I don't see how this turns around in Cincy around until 2021 at the earliest.
johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
This whole situation is a terrible cocktail for Mixon’s production.
1. Offensive line is terrible (as others have stated)
2. Taylor has no creatively with using either RB. Never see either in space. Mixon gets a bunch of carries up the gut and 1 target every week.
3. Not that it has helped Gio but Mixon doesn’t play in the hurry up or in garbage time.
Throw in that Dalton has 3 rushing TDs and you can see how this has gone downhill.
1. Offensive line is terrible (as others have stated)
2. Taylor has no creatively with using either RB. Never see either in space. Mixon gets a bunch of carries up the gut and 1 target every week.
3. Not that it has helped Gio but Mixon doesn’t play in the hurry up or in garbage time.
Throw in that Dalton has 3 rushing TDs and you can see how this has gone downhill.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Is he redraft droppable at this point? Short benches it’s either Tevin Coleman, Christian Kirk or Mixon to find a QB for Lamar’s bye.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
In a short bench redraft (start two rbs, one on the bench mandated). I am dropping him this week with one of my other two rbs on bye. League also requires at least 50 yards to get any yardage points. Just can't risk a goose egg. And I am not at all hopeful that things will get better within the next 6 to 7 weeks (when playoffs start). Though I am holding in dynasty (though much more willing to trade than before and perhaps for 90 cents on the dollar now), in short-bench redraft, it is "Bye, bye, Dixon" time.
electric Ape
Footballguy
This is a situation where saying Cincinnati has a “bad” offensive line is both true and potentially deceiving all at the same time.FreeBaGeL said:
Let’s say you decided to make fun of your friend for hooking up with a “bad” looking girl. She could look bad in any number of ways, maybe she’s 50 lbs overweight or has a bit of a lazy eye or something like that. In any case the mean but normal reaction is to tease him a little and move on. But let’s say there’s a different case where the girl weighs 4,000 lbs, has a large pumpkin shaped tumor growing out of the side of her head, has a mustache, and spends all of her time being hoisted between doctor’s appointments in a crane. This girl looks “bad” too but suddenly teasing is a completely unacceptable response, now you need to hold an immediate intervention.
The Bengals offensive line isn’t just bad, it’s a disgusting freak show with pumpkin tumors. They started the season with below average players then lost pretty much all of them and what’s left is truly as bad as it gets. I agree with you that Mixon doesn’t look good out there but sadly this isn’t something that can be fixed with attitude. There are RBs who can overcome a “bad” offensive line but there are none that I’m aware of that can overcome a disgusting freak show. Mixon remains a very good player and probably a good buy low in dynasty, but his prospects for this season are rock bottom unless some of the lost players return or the hapless current starters stage a miraculously turnaround. We just have to accept this. The worst mistake we can make is to start downgrading Mixon’s talent based on a season like this. When you go to work every day at a rotten fish factory, some of the stink is going to rub off on you, it’s just unavoidable.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Any chance the Bengals go full rebuild and do us all a favor by trading him for draft picks?
