Thoughts on the state of the roster, defense. I'm going to cite PFF grades, so I'm going to organize groupings the way they do to make it easier.
Interior DL (assume 6 roster spots on final active roster):
- These are the Chargers' interior DL 2016 PFF ranks (out of 205 graded players):
Mebane - #19 overall, #27 run defense, #16 pass rush on 340 snaps 
- Square - #76 overall, #37T run defense, #181T pass rush on 362 snaps
- Carrethers - #82 overall, #73 run defense, #100 pass rush on 48 snaps
- Liuget - #97T overall, #45 run defense, #187T pass rush on 812 snaps
- Reid - #116T overall, #168T run defense, #49T pass rush on 112 snaps
- Philon - #134 overall, #84 run defense, #185T pass rush on 267 snaps
- Palepoi - #168T overall, #131 run defense, #185T pass rush on 378 snaps :X
[*]Mebane was very good last season, in his first season with the Chargers, and he also provided needed veteran leadership on the defense. However, he is 32 and played just 340 snaps last season, missing 6 games altogether. He is valuable to the defense, but cannot be expected to play major snaps.
[*]Liuget performed poorly in 2016, in the first season after signing his large contract extension. Look at those PFF grades and then consider he is being paid as a top 10 interior DL. The biggest disappointment is that he was the worst in the group at pass rush, when theoretically he should have benefitted from the pressure being applied outside by Bosa and Ingram. He is only 26, so it is reasonable to hope he rebounds. However, the team can save $6.5M off its 2018 cap by releasing him after 2017, so there is some pressure on him to perform this year.
[*]Neither Philon nor Reid were good overall last season, but both are young and cheap. Looks like a natural pairing, with Philon playing mostly in base/rushing situations and Reid playing mostly in passing situations.
[*]Square played pretty well in 2016, especially against the run. It seems that the team should be able to bring him back for a reasonable price. Like Philon, he complements Reid well.
[*]DT Carrethers is a RFA. After showing some potential in 2014, he didn't play well in 2015, and then got just 48 snaps in 2016. He graded well in 2016 compared to his peers, though perhaps the sample size is too low to fairly compare. It seems his lack of usage is more telling and must reflect stuff not evident on the field, whether attitude, work ethic, or just poor play in practice. If true, he probably shouldn't return.
[*]DT Palepoi is a RFA. He was by far the worst of this group in 2016, and the team should not bring him back.
[*]So Mebane, Liuget, Philon, and Reid will definitely be back, and the team should bring Square back. That leaves one more spot to fill, assuming the team has good reason to move on from Carrethers. Overall, this group could use some improvement, but team needs at OL and S will probably prevent any significant impact players from being added here. Improved play from Liuget is what is most needed.
Edge defenders (5):
- These are the Chargers' edge defender 2016 PFF ranks (out of 183 graded players):
Bosa - #5 overall, #7T run defense, #4 pass rush on 563 snaps
- Ingram - #6 overall, #12 run defense, #9 pass rush on 960 snaps
- Landrum - #80 overall, #51T run defense, #81 pass rush on 85 snaps
- Emanuel - #105 overall, #34 run defense, #168T pass rush on 545 snaps
- Tourek Williams - #137 overall, #121 run defense, #140T pass rush on 142 snaps :X
- Attaochu - #159 overall, #136 run defense, #157 pass rush on 178 snaps :X
[*]DE Bosa is a stud and should be a foundational player for the Chargers for many years.
[*]DE/OLB Ingram had a great 2016 season. The Chargers franchised him, so he is currently set to have a 2017 cap hit of $14.55M. The team has indicated it wants to negotiate a long term contract with him, which should bring that 2017 cap hit down. Here's hoping the long term contract doesn't make him complacent. Telesco hasn't gotten many good results when he has given his own players large contract extensions (Butler, Liuget, Flowers, Dunlap... Rivers is the only exception so far).
[*]OLB Landrum is a 24 year old ERFA. He will be back with an opportunity to build upon his promising 2016 performance.
[*]OLB Emanuel is very one dimensional, and seems to really only offer value as a spot player in base/run situations when Bosa or Ingram are not on the field... and perhaps as insurance against a letdown by Ingram, though that would be a huge dropoff, so not really great insurance. Emanuel is okay for that limited role, but he should not play close to 545 snaps again. Hopefully Bosa will take 400 of those snaps in 2017.
[*]OLB Tourek Williams is a UFA and played poorly in 2016. The team should move on.
[*]No idea what has happened to OLB Attaochu. He played great in 2015 and then fell off a cliff in 2016. His play on the field was awful, and his usage dropped from 677 defensive snaps in 2015 to 178 in 2016. What to do with him depends on what the team knows that we don't. If he has problems with attitude or work ethic, the team should release him to save roughly $1M against the 2017 cap (although he has to then be replaced, reducing the savings). If there is nothing so serious as that, the team should bring him back on the final year of his contract and hope he rebounds to his 2015 level of play. And, with Emanuel, as insurance against an Ingram letdown.
[*]So Bosa, Ingram, Landrum, and Emanuel will be back. The last position is either Attaochu or TBD if the team chooses to release him. I'm guessing he is back, so this group is set.
Linebackers (5):
- These are the Chargers' LB 2016 PFF ranks (out of 167 graded players):
Toomer - #25 overall, #17 run defense, #44 coverage, #53 in pass rush on 479 snaps
- Brown - #28 overall, #125 run defense, #23 coverage, #7 in pass rush on 600 snaps
- Perry - #46 overall, #40T run defense, #58 coverage, #93 in pass rush on 114 snaps
- Perryman - #54 overall, #54 run defense, #78T coverage, #12 in pass rush on 481 snaps
- Dzubnar - #157 overall, #107 run defense, #164 coverage, #112 in pass rush on 45 snaps :X
- Teo - #161T overall, #127 run defense, #163 coverage, #138T in pass rush on 142 snaps :X
[*]OLB Toomer was an outstanding find by Telesco. He is a RFA, and the team should bring him back on a reasonable two year deal to start.
[*]OLB Brown was a steal as a 2016 5th round draft pick, and he had an outstanding rookie season. He should start across from Toomer.
[*]ILB Perryman was solid in 2016. He should start and get most of the ILB snaps in base/rushing situations.
[*]ILB Perry didn't play a lot but was reasonably solid as a rookie. He should provide good depth behind Perryman. It is also worth pointing out that
he made PFF's first team for punt coverage in 2016.
[*]ILB Teo was just as bad in 2016 as in 2015 before an injury mercifully ended his 2016 season. Many fans thought it was a bad move for Telesco to move up to take him in the 2013 draft, and, unfortunately, it was an even worse move than feared. He is a UFA coming off a torn Achilles suffered in week 3 of 2016. No way he comes back.
[*]ILB Dzubnar is terrible. He is on the roster primarily for special teams play, but it isn't clear that he is a particularly good special teams player. He is due to make $617K in 2017, and it seems like the team could get a better player for the same amount or less. The team should release him and move on.
[*]So Toomer, Brown, Perryman, and Perry will be back. That is a strong group. We also know from last season that Emanuel can play ILB in a pinch and showed he can be a strong run defender. With all of these players just brought to the team within the past two seasons, even Telesco probably won't feel compelled to draft another LB this year. One more player is needed here for depth and special teams, but this is not an area of urgent need, so a cheap veteran or UDFA should be acceptable.
Cornerbacks (6):
- These are the Chargers' CB 2016 PFF ranks (out of 202 graded players):
Hayward - #6 overall, #7 in coverage, #47 run defense on x snaps
- Flowers - #47T overall, #66T in coverage, #4 run defense on 352 snaps
- Reed - #90 overall, #92T in coverage, #135 run defense on 123 snaps
- Verrett - #111 overall, #126 in coverage, #52T run defense on 260 snaps
- Trevor Williams - #171 overall, #173T in coverage, #10T run defense on 389 snaps
- McClain - #187 overall, #185 in coverage, #196 run defense on 327 snaps :X
- Mager - #190 overall, #189 in coverage, #141T run defense on 410 snaps :X
[*]Hayward looks like the best free agency signing of Telesco's career and will obviously start.
[*]Verrett is entering the last year of his rookie contract. This is an important season for him. He played very well in his first two seasons, but his play fell off quite a bit in 2016 before he got hurt, something that didn't get much attention in the media. The general perception of him is that he is a top corner in the NFL, but he will need to prove that 2016 was a fluke to get a contract commensurate with that. He will also need to show he can stay on the field, having played in just 24 of a possible 48 games so far in his career. He will start if healthy.
[*]Flowers had a solid season last year when on the field. However, his 2017 cap hit if retained is $11M, which drops to $4M if he is released. He missed the last 6 games of last season with a concussion, and has a concussion history. If he was willing to renegotiate his contract to something that drops his 2017 cap hit by several million dollars, and if he wants to continue playing despite the concussions, the team should bring him back. But I don't expect both of those to happen, so he will almost certainly be released.
[*]Reed is under contract for 2017 for $615K. He showed some potential and should be back.
[*]Trevor Williams is a ERFA. His run defense was nice, but corners get paid to cover, and he wasn't good at it. I would let him go, but I predict Telesco brings him back.
[*]McClain is terrible and is a UFA. Easy call, he should be released.
[*]Mager is terrible. He was a bad pick when the pick was made and has proven it. His 2017 cap hit if retained is $798K, but drops to $331K if he is released. Easy call for me, he should be released. Not sure Telesco will agree.
[*]Overall, assuming Flowers is gone, the team has two quality starters, one of whom has not proven he can stay healthy, and very weak depth, with some number of holes to fill depending on what Telesco does with Williams, McClain, and Mager. This is a problem area that needs attention. Right now, I don't see how anyone can feel comfortable with this group as it stands. IMO the team should attempt to sign a reasonably priced veteran to replace Flowers, pushing Reed and whoever else down the depth chart.
Safeties (4):
- These are the Chargers' S 2016 PFF ranks (out of 164 graded players):
Addae - #12T overall, #10 in coverage, #12 run defense on 510 snaps
- Lowery - #43T overall, #11T in coverage, #143 run defense on 1003 snaps
- McCoil - #95 overall, #56T in coverage, #154 run defense on 248 snaps
- Phillips - #119 overall, #150 in coverage, #59T run defense on 542 snaps
- Stuckey - #135 overall, #143 in coverage, #84T run defense on 30 snaps
- (oh yeah, and Weddle was #1 overall)
[*]My first reaction to those grades above is to be surprised at how highly rated Addae and Lowery are in coverage. It doesn't match my impression from watching the games. That drives both of them to higher overall grades than I would have expected.
[*]SS Addae is a UFA. I assume Telesco wants to bring him back, and I think he should bring him back if he isn't too expensive. If he doesn't return, this is a gaping hole that must be filled, since there is no way anyone should be comfortable with the idea of any of the Chargers' backup safeties moving into the starting lineup.
[*]FS Lowery was really bad in run support last year. Big dropoff from Weddle to him, but I suppose you get what you pay for. I expect Lowery will be back and starting for at least one more year, but I would rather see him replaced. I just don't see Telesco releasing him one year after signing him to a 3 year deal.
[*]Stuckey has been a great special teams player, but I think his time has come. His 2017 cap hit if retained is $3.333M, but it drops to $433K if he is released. Is he really worth $2.9M for special teams alone? I don't think so. Seems like his contract was structured for him to be released this offseason, since his salary jumps from $1.235M in 2016 to $2.9M in 2017. He is 29, so I don't think negotiating an extension really makes sense, so he should be released.
[*]I had high hopes for McCoil last year, but he was underwhelming. He is under contract for 2017 for $540K, so he is cheap, and he showed some promise in coverage, especially against TEs. He will be back.
[*]Phillips is the opposite of McCoil, not bad in run defense, terrible in coverage. He is a RFA, and he is just 24, so I expect Telesco to bring him back on a cheap contract and hope for growth.
[*]So as of now, it seems most likely that Addae, Lowery, McCoil, and Phillips will be the safeties to make the final roster. I don't trust the PFF grades being so high for Addae and Lowery... it feels like this is the weakest unit on the team other than OL. I would like to see an impact player added here. If Addae is re-signed, that means adding an impact FS, and letting him battle for the starting job with Lowery and forcing McCoil, Phillips, and other camp fodder battle for the last spot on the depth chart. If Addae is not re-signed, it will have to be at SS. In that case, I hope Telesco goes after one of the free agent safeties from the Cardinals (Jefferson, Swearinger).
Altogether, releasing Flowers and Stuckey would open up about $10M in cap space, and signing Ingram long term should free up another several million. That should roughly cover signing Landrum, Toomer, Addae, a veteran CB, and an impact safety.
My projected depth chart on defense looks like this:
- Interior DL - Mebane, Liuget, Square, Reid, Philon, TBD
- Edge - Bosa, Ingram, Emanuel, Landrum, Attaochu
- LB - OLBs Brown, Toomer; ILBs Perryman, Perry; OLB/ILB TBD
- CB - Hayward, Verrett, TBD veteran, Reed, TBD (probably Trevor Williams), TBD (probably Mager)
- S - Addae, Lowery, TBD impact player, McCoil/Phillips
That looks like it could be the core of a very good defense, given proper coaching and reasonably good health. Depth is weak, though. The additions last offseason of Bosa, Mebane, Brown, and Toomer (and the subtraction of some others like Reyes and Teo) has created a strong front 7 that just needs minor adjustments overall. But the defensive backfield needs attention; as constructed now, it will not be able to withstand injuries to the starters.
Thoughts?
