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Zeke for 1.01 & 1.02 - Fair PPR offer? (1 Viewer)

Andy Dufresne

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I'm still high on Fournette/Cook/Williams/Davis.

My team is pretty decent but doesn't have much RB depth. I don't have a 1st myself (used it to acquire Antonio Brown).

If you had the picks would you consider Zeke for the picks?

Should I expect more than that for Zeke?

 
If I had Zeke and Brown I wouldn't be looking to trade either of them.  Especially before knowing what team either cook or fournette is on.  Stand pat.  

But in a vacuum, the value is pretty much spot on.  

 
If you get both the 1.01 and the 1.02, statistically you have a 50/50 chance of getting a player as good as Zeke. Pass.

 
I own 1.01 and 1.02 in a league and love Zeke, obviously, but don't think I could do it. Not saying it's not the right valuation though. However, I am tempted to offer 1.01 + 1.02 for Evans but that's a different story. 

 
I would prefer Zeke over the two picks.  Zeke is the 1.01 from last year that was a dream top RB falling into the best spot.  I wouldn't be willing to cash that in for the extra 1.02.

 
The recency  bias of Zeke performing as good as you can realistically expect from the 1.01 spot makes that pick seem better than it is.  That was a perfect storm of a very good RB falling into the perfect situation of offensive line and desire to run.  The chances of something like that happening again are very small.  More often than not those guys bust and never pan out.  You already know you have a stud with Zeke.  No reason to take a chance - especially before you know where Fournette/Cook land. 

 
This offer would make me think really hard but would probably stick with Zeke.  Couldn't blame anyone for taking the 1.01+1.02 though, very very fair deal.

 
Gally said:
The recency  bias of Zeke performing as good as you can realistically expect from the 1.01 spot makes that pick seem better than it is.  That was a perfect storm of a very good RB falling into the perfect situation of offensive line and desire to run.  The chances of something like that happening again are very small.  More often than not those guys bust and never pan out.  You already know you have a stud with Zeke.  No reason to take a chance - especially before you know where Fournette/Cook land. 
Click to expand...
That's a good argument but it's deeper than that,  right?  Sure Zeke is most likely better than either of Fournette or Cook, but the real question is whether or not you think Zeke + Player X scores more points than Fournette + Cook/Davis/Williams. It's a function of how much better the new second player is than the guy he's replacing on the roster.

 I know there's no way to answer that without knowing the rest of the roster. But we don't need to get that into it. My question was answered, thanks!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Andy Dufresne said:
That's a good argument but it's deeper than that,  right?  Sure Zeke is most likely better than either of Fournette or Cook, but the real question is whether or not you think Zeke + Player X scores more points than Fournette + Cook/Davis/Williams. It's a function of how much better the new second player is than the guy he's replacing on the roster.

 I know there's no way to answer that without knowing the rest of the roster. But we don't need to get that into it. My question was answered, thanks!
Click to expand...
It's a little deeper than that but not much.  Really the main thing I was pointing out is that high rookie draft picks do not pan out as often as people think especially after hitting on a perfect storm situation like Zeke.  By getting two picks you increase your chance of one of the players panning out but the percentages of both panning out are slim.  That means it is Zeke for the possibility of one of the two picks panning out (most likely scenario) and if that does happen I would venture a guess that the one is not anywhere close to the stud performance that Zeke put together. 

 
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