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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (2 Viewers)

Jayded said:
Seattle's OL. Carroll's commitment to the hot hand flavor of the week. I get that Lacy and Rawls are what they are, but what happens if Carson gets nicked and suddenly we have Rawls with 20 carries and 100 yards? He might get a few starts and hurt Carson's value. In considering pure trusting the guy, I'm thinking I'm investing in a guy who'll get about 14 carries, 45 yards or so, a few catches for ~20-40 yards, and a TD every 3 or 4 games.
Same goes for many RB2's. Hell, DeMarco Murray is an RB1 taken in many first rounds and he's got a potential RB1 replacement as his backup. He couldn't even take a week to rest a constantly ailed hammy because Henry is breathing down his neck (no, he didn't out perform him against Seattle –– Henry ironically injured his thigh, unbeknownst to the FF world).

 
SameSongNDance said:
Carson has the third highest elusive grade amongst all qualified backs. Damn that is one elusive Yeti. 
This surprises me a bit. I didn't really see much of that in the college cut ups I watched of him.

 
JFS171 said:
I don't think he's laterally explosive from what I've seen.  Go watch Joe Mixon.  Then watch Carson.  Their athletic traits are just miles apart.

That said, I think Carson is kinda similar to Rawls in that he hits the hole hard, he's got some vision, and he's big and strong enough to truck a lot of would be tacklers.  He's got some receiving skills too, though I'd be lying if I said i knew he was a 3-down beast.

In some cases, I'm cashing in (in a keep 4-6 where I'm loaded at RB, I basically flipped Carson, Kupp, and Lynch for Jeffery and Doug Martin).  In a few dynasty leagues I still have Carson and won't sell for less than similar value.

To me, it's kinda like Rawls all over again.  Those who sold Rawls right after he broke out might have been kicking themselves thinking they didn't get enough.  Long term, Rawls doesn't look like the guy though.  I think that's the point being made ... what's to stop Seattle from drafting Barkley, Guice, Freeman, Chubb, etc next year and then Carson is relegated?  Think back to the Rams.  Stacy looked pretty good, until they brought in Tre Mason who looked pretty good, until they brought in Gurley.
Thanks for listing something specific. I'd likely agree that Mixon has more "lateral explosion", but how important is that for a RB, and just how "unexplosive" is he? I'd beg to differ that their athletic traits are just miles apart- Carson had a better vert and broad jump, that's comparing Mixon's numbers at his pro day vs. Carson's at the combine.

There's always a chance that Seattle drafts a stud RB early in the draft, but how likely do you think that is? They haven't spend a 1st rounder on a RB since Shaun Alexander in 2000, and during that time they've also only once used a 2nd rounder on RB when they drafted Michael with a late 2nd rounder (pick #62) 5 years ago. It seems highly unlikely that they're going to go after the top RBs in this draft, especially if they like what they see out of Carson.

 
Jayded said:
Seattle's OL. Carroll's commitment to the hot hand flavor of the week. I get that Lacy and Rawls are what they are, but what happens if Carson gets nicked and suddenly we have Rawls with 20 carries and 100 yards? He might get a few starts and hurt Carson's value. In considering pure trusting the guy, I'm thinking I'm investing in a guy who'll get about 14 carries, 45 yards or so, a few catches for ~20-40 yards, and a TD every 3 or 4 games.
So the reason you think he has a RB 3 ceiling in dynasty is the situation, not anything to do with him specifically? I'm not too worried about the situation longer term, the line will likely improve and if Carson is legit Carroll will feed him.

 
Hawks have fell behind the last two games making for a poor run-to-pass ratio.

Look for them to be playing more from the lead and then bleeding the clock going forward which means more T-Rawls in the mix but probably more runs for Carson.https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-hoping-they-dont-wait-much-longer-to-get-running-game-going/

...The way the Seahawks see it, that’s been the real issue — getting the offense assembled and used in a way to let the running game thrive.

Mostly, they point to the fact that the Seahawks fell behind at each Green Bay and Tennessee and had to mostly punt on the running game in the second half.

In those two games, the Seahawks attempted a combined 20 rushes in the first half and 29 passes, but then had 20 runs and 47 passes in the second.

That’s led to Seattle having a whopping pass-to-run ratio so far of 115-77 —or put another way, passing on 61.3 percent of all plays. That would be higher than any season in the Carroll era —

...expect the Seahawks to try to break out on the ground this week and maybe even get Rawls and Lacy involved.

 
So the reason you think he has a RB 3 ceiling in dynasty is the situation, not anything to do with him specifically? I'm not too worried about the situation longer term, the line will likely improve and if Carson is legit Carroll will feed him.
Somewhat, yes. Carroll's usage of RBs doesn't scream that we should expect more than RB3/Flex no matter who is in there. When I say RB3, I'm thinking I don't trust Carson in my lineup every single week as one of my top two RBs but would be fine as my flex, so I'm more clearly defining what I mean when I say RB3. I feel like Carroll's usage ceiling for him brings him into the CJ Anderson/Doug Martin type territory. So I might be wrong in saying it's RB3, but generally I would trust Martin/Anderson more on a week to week basis than I trust a Carroll RB.

 
Hawks have fell behind the last two games making for a poor run-to-pass ratio.

Look for them to be playing more from the lead and then bleeding the clock going forward which means more T-Rawls in the mix but probably more runs for Carson.https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-hoping-they-dont-wait-much-longer-to-get-running-game-going/
How likely do we think it is that Carroll actually tries to force it to Rawls? It sounds like Carson should be the man and even be a 3 down back this week but, if he has some irrational loyalty to Rawls, that could really throw a wrench in the gears for Carson's momentum. 

Hopefully, Rawls and/or Lacy only see the field to spell Carson and possibly late in the game if it gets out of hand.

 
Thanks for listing something specific. I'd likely agree that Mixon has more "lateral explosion", but how important is that for a RB, and just how "unexplosive" is he? I'd beg to differ that their athletic traits are just miles apart- Carson had a better vert and broad jump, that's comparing Mixon's numbers at his pro day vs. Carson's at the combine.

There's always a chance that Seattle drafts a stud RB early in the draft, but how likely do you think that is? They haven't spend a 1st rounder on a RB since Shaun Alexander in 2000, and during that time they've also only once used a 2nd rounder on RB when they drafted Michael with a late 2nd rounder (pick #62) 5 years ago. It seems highly unlikely that they're going to go after the top RBs in this draft, especially if they like what they see out of Carson.
If you've read my posts around the board over the years, I'm very big on a metric called Agility Score, which was developed by Shawn Siegele over at RotoViz.  Essentially, you take the 3-Cone and Short Shuttle and add them together (very complicated), and it gives a single number measure of agility from a RB.  For little RBs expected to be COP guys or third down backs primarily, this doesn't really matter that much.  Sub-200lb guys better be able to move and cut or they won't make it in the NFL.  However, when you get big dudes (220+) who can change directions on a dime, that correlates pretty highly with NFL success.

I posted some of this way back on page 5 of the Ty Montgomery thread last year, but look at Agility Scores for drafted running backs weighing 220+  from 2013-2015;
*** Note - some of the elites at the position didn't complete full workouts, so we have no data on them - Gurley, Zeke, etc.
*** Eddie Lacy (231 lbs) ran a 7.33 3-Cone which would've ranked slower than all but Jeremy Hill on the list below.  Lacy didn't run the short shuttle, so we don't have an agility score
*** A single asterisk (*) denotes pro-day numbers instead of combine numbers

2013 - Christine Michael (220 lbs) - 6.69 3-Cone; 4.02 Short Shuttle -- 10.71 Agility Score
2014 - Tyler Gaffney (220 lbs) - 6.78 3-Cone; 4.18 Short Shuttle -- 10.96 Agility Score
2013 - Le'Veon Bell (230 lbs) - 6.75 3-Cone; 4.24 Short Shuttle -- 10.99 Agility Score
2015 - Malcolm Brown (224lbs) - 6.86 3-Cone; 4.15 Short Shuttle -- 11.01 Agility Score
2015 - David Johnson (224lbs) - 6.82 3-Cone; 4.27 Short Shuttle -- 11.09 Agility Score
2014 - Lorenzo Taliaferro (229 lbs) - 6.88 3-Cone; 4.22 Short Shuttle -- 11.10 Agility Score
2015 - Jay Ajayi (221lbs) - 7.10 3-Cone; 4.10 Short Shuttle -- 11.20 Agility Score
2015 - Zach Zenner (223lbs) - 7.08 3-Cone; 4.14 Short Shuttle -- 11.22 Agility Score
2015 - Buck Allen (221lbs) - 6.96 3-Cone; 4.28 Short Shuttle -- 11.24 Agility Score
*2013 - Mike James (223 lbs) - 6.93 3-Cone; 4.34 Short Shuttle -- 11.27 Agility Score
*2015 - Matt Jones (231 lbs) - 6.84 3-Cone; 4.44 Short Shuttle -- 11.28 Agility Score
2014 - Andre Williams (230 lbs) - 7.27 3-Cone; 4.06 Short Shuttle -- 11.33 Agility Score
*2013 - Spencer Ware (228 lbs) - 7.07 3-Cone; 4.27 Short Shuttle - 11.34 Agility Score
2013 - Knile Davis (227 lbs) - 6.96 3-Cone; 4.38 Short Shuttle -- 11.34 Agility Score
2015 - TJ Yeldon (226lbs) - 7.19 3-Cone; 4.22 Short Shuttle -- 11.41 Agility Score
*2015 - David Cobb (229 lbs) - 7.01 3-Cone; 4.55 Short Shuttle -- 11.56 Agility Score
2015 - Karlos Williams (230lbs) - 7.16 3-Cone; 4.46 Short Shuttle -- 11.62 Agility Score
2014 - Alfred Blue (223 lbs) - 7.15 3-Cone; 4.50 Short Shuttle -- 11.65 Agility Score
*2014 - Terrance West (225 lbs) - 7.28 3-Cone; 4.44 Short Shuttle -- 11.72 Agility Score
*2014 - Jeremy Hill (233lbs) - 7.64 3-Cone; 4.59 Short Shuttle -- 12.23 Agility Score

Carson's Agility Score was 11.81, worse than everyone but Jeremy Hill on this list (thus the Yeti comments).  And he did this at 218lbs, below the 220+ threshold set for this list.  His 3-Cone of 7.53 would've ranked slower than everyone but Jeremy Hill (even Lacy bested that by 2 tenths of a second).  His Short Shuttle of 4.28 was middle of the pack, but still was beat by 11 of the 20 we have here.  Carson is an explosive athlete given his very good vertical and broad jumps, and he's not terribly slow with a 4.58 40 (though that's not blazing).

Mixon didn't have a best-in-class agility score for this list either (11.37) but he did so at 228 lbs and still far outpaced Carson.  

When the metrics align with the film, I feel pretty confident in saying that I'll be surprised in the long run if Carson ends up a multiyear RB2+.  He may very well hold the job this year, and even next year, but guys like him tend to eventually get replaced.

ETA - obviously being a good athlete doesn't guarantee NFL success, but being a bad athlete generally leads to an NFL team trying to upgrade.

 
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ATB said:
How likely do we think it is that Carroll actually tries to force it to Rawls? It sounds like Carson should be the man and even be a 3 down back this week but, if he has some irrational loyalty to Rawls, that could really throw a wrench in the gears for Carson's momentum. 

Hopefully, Rawls and/or Lacy only see the field to spell Carson and possibly late in the game if it gets out of hand.
Seems like they are in the picture according to running game/O-Line coach Tom Cable who says Rawls/Lacy are like 'gold'.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-hoping-they-dont-wait-much-longer-to-get-running-game-going/

... Offensive line coach and running game coordinator Tom Cable, though, insists it’s only a matter of time until Lacy and Rawls make the kind of impact everyone expected.

“I think they will be damned important going forward,’’ Cable said Wednesday. “You know really we have not got it where we want it and on track where there is consistent production with the right mix and balance and the flow of the game and all those things. So I think they are going to be like gold to us. 

 
Seems like they are in the picture according to running game/O-Line coach Tom Cable who says Rawls/Lacy are like 'gold'.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-hoping-they-dont-wait-much-longer-to-get-running-game-going/

... Offensive line coach and running game coordinator Tom Cable, though, insists it’s only a matter of time until Lacy and Rawls make the kind of impact everyone expected.

“I think they will be damned important going forward,’’ Cable said Wednesday. “You know really we have not got it where we want it and on track where there is consistent production with the right mix and balance and the flow of the game and all those things. So I think they are going to be like gold to us. 
Honestly, this really just sounds like coachspeak. I mean, do we expect these guys to verbally undervalue their "backups"? You want them to be ready at a moment's notice, so you throw out statements like this that keep them feeling valued. I'm a little worried about how much Pete Carroll has seemed to like Rawls in the past but, at the same time, they drafted Carson and he's actually producing for them and seems to really fit their system. 

I just don't see how they replace Carson with Rawls (Lacy ain't happening, sorry fellas) unless he goes down to injury. 

 
Thanks for the detailed response JFS. Do you have any data showing how highly this metric correlates with NFL success? It's one thing to compare it to those other RBs drafted, but honestly not sure if it's all that relevant. It would be more telling to compare it with the more successful NFL RBs, but as you said, many of them didn't complete the drills so that will leave a lot of them out. I might dig into it deeper later, but just as an example I looked at Kareem Hunt, who had a 7.22 3 cone and 4.53 SS for a 11.75 agility score, and those were likely inflated pro-day times. Also, Carson hurt his hamstring at the combine, so that may have been a factor in his Yeti-like 3 cone time.

Obviously Carson didn't have a good agility score, but I'm not so sure that's the be-all-end-all for RBs, and I certainly wouldn't call him a bad athlete. Something to consider though.

 
Those agility scores are interesting, but as you say can't be taken by themselves, or would run the risk of a rather myopic view/stance to determine a RBs success rate. Obviously vision, patience, lean, technique, decision/processing of data speed, durability, pass defense, receiving ability, and holding onto the ball are also important, which Christine Michael's exceptional agility score could not overcompensate for, hence the importance of the other skills should not be marginalized.

Carson seems to have a well rounded skillset, of which you have shown his agility could be a weakness or at least merely average. However, for jump cutting, or one cut and go, his broad and vert (leaping ability) could be looked upon as a plus as far as athleticism rating for his style. He has also shown great vision. However, I would not take the view that he is a poor/slow athlete (I would take that view with Lacy/Hill, but he is also not exceptionally shifty. Neither are a lot of successful RBs. With a one cut and go you don't really want the RB dancing around McCoy style, and if he tried to start running with that style it would not be successful for him. I don't think he plans to do that.

 
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I have him but can't bring myself to start him over Parker, Cook or Ajayi.  Still so much unknown about the Seahawks at this point

 
Thanks for the detailed response JFS. Do you have any data showing how highly this metric correlates with NFL success? It's one thing to compare it to those other RBs drafted, but honestly not sure if it's all that relevant. It would be more telling to compare it with the more successful NFL RBs, but as you said, many of them didn't complete the drills so that will leave a lot of them out. I might dig into it deeper later, but just as an example I looked at Kareem Hunt, who had a 7.22 3 cone and 4.53 SS for a 11.75 agility score, and those were likely inflated pro-day times. Also, Carson hurt his hamstring at the combine, so that may have been a factor in his Yeti-like 3 cone time.

Obviously Carson didn't have a good agility score, but I'm not so sure that's the be-all-end-all for RBs, and I certainly wouldn't call him a bad athlete. Something to consider though.
Here's a few articles from when Siegele was starting to explore the idea of Agility Scores, which began when he looked at what he termed 'Vision Yards' and wondered if yards before contact were more than just situation/team influenced and if harder-to-tackle, more elusive players created more yards before contact than their peers.  In other words, yards after contact are great, but are yards before contact just as important?  The last article about big dudes like Bell and Doug Martin that move like 200 lb guys is behind RotoViz's paywall (though you can get a free 3-day trial).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-the-contrarian-vision-yards

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-the-contrarian-agility-scores

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-the-contrarian-agility-scores-and-breakout-rbs

http://rotoviz.com/2013/03/agility-scores-leveon-bell-and-doug-martin/

 
Just was offered Jordan Reed for my Carson and Jared Cook, for reference if anyone is interested in trade expectations.

ETA: I turned that down.  

 
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Just was offered Jordan Reed for my Carson and Jared Cook, for reference if anyone is interested in trade expectations.

ETA: I turned that down.  
Somebody offered me Reed for Cohen after I lost Olsen.  I think everyone that owns Reed wants to sell since he's bound to go to IR at some point

 
production tends to be a combination of talent, opportunity, and quality of opportunity.

Talent: 39" vert and 130" broad jump are excellent for the position, while his 3cone and short shuttle are below average. I've watched all of his touches in preseason and regular season at least twice (obsessed Hawks fan with gamepass), I'm hard pressed to find a single play where he doesn't look above average in quicknsess. In pads, and in the games this season, he has great elusivity. He runs physically between the tackles, often moving the pile 2-3 yards. I've seen people quoting stats as top 5 elusivity and top 5 yards after contact, but I cannot source them. He's a violent runner, taking punishment to the defender. Several times already in this short season he's trucked 300lb+ DL in the hole. Carson is deceptive in the open field, often easily avoiding the first and sometimes second tacklers, but he's not shown the ability to string together multiple moves back to back. His running style and physical characteristics are a great match for that first cut required in Seattle's ZBS. His speed/quickness in pads is superior to most LBs over 240 lbs, and his quickness/power in pads is superior to most defenders under 240 lbs. Carson only has average long speed, able to maintain separation from LBs, but losing ground to DBs. He has great technique in pass protection, and has consistently been the best at it among the seattle RBs during preseason. He has good enough hands for catching. In addition to being able to catch a dumpoff in the near/shallow flat, he can catch the ball on the move in crossing and wheel routes.He almost always makes the right decision when considering to stretch the play outside or take the tough 1-3 inside yards. He has veteran awareness considering the clock and sideline.

Opportunity: He has earned the trust of his coaches and teammates, with Baldwin calling him the most developed rookie he has seen on the Seahawks since Baldwin joined the team. Lacy is slow and doesn't run violently - it's unlikely Lacy poaches touches or TDs. Rawls is rusty, and perhaps permanently slowed by his leg/ankle injury, and has looked out of sorts carrying the ball and in pass protection. Prosise is more valuable in the passing game, and his trail of injuries don't suggest he's got the durability to steal the bell-cow role (despite the size to do so), and it makes more sense to keep Prosise as the specialist. Seattle doesn't use RB screens much (I personally don't think Wilson can effectively read the defense against a screen), so Carson is relatively less valuable in PPR. Carson (57%) and Prosise (29%) have accounted for 88% of the touches. First game was a split of carries between Rawls, Lacy, and Carson - Carson clearly won, with 20 carries the next week against SF. The game script against Tennessee favored utilization of Prosise over Carson, but I am thinking that 60% snap count would be a conservative estimate for rest of season. If Rawls regains form, it's all out the door, but Rawls has only looked like his 2015 self once against Carolina in 2016, and has looked like just another guy otherwise.

Quality of opportunity: Carson's limitations in the short term are definitely OL play, but the OL improved from disastrous to really bad in only 1.5 games. Despite a bad OL, he has turned most of his sure TFLs into no gain or short gains. Despite a bad OL, he is averaging 4.48 yards per carry. Despite a bad OL, he is 9th in DYAR (production) and 10th in DVOA (efficiency), neither of which is corrected for quality of OL play.

We'll all agree that the Seahawks offense has looked a hot mess for 2.5 games this season. Somehow, a rookie, playing in only 57% of the offensive snaps on a enema-worthy offense, has managed to produce 20th place in standard format fantasy points and 25th in PPR. For this season, I think his floor is RB2/3 in 12 team formats. If Seattle gets sorted out even a little bit more, Carson could elevate to borderline RB1/2 in standard formats and mid RB2 in PPR formats. If Rawls ever regains form, then I'd expect a committee with none of the Seattle RBs worth starting barring bye week needs. Long term, I think Carson has all the tools to be a successful 3 down back in the NFL (not elite, but top 10-12) and worthy of a long term hold in dynasty. In both redraft and fantasy, rather than trading away Carson, I'd try to buy low on Rawls (2nd rounder in dynasty, or a throw in as part of a trade in either format). In dynasty, I would want to be confident that the 1st round pick got me a top 3 back to replace Carson.

 
Just traded Carson in 2 leagues, both PPR:

1) Gave Carson and a late 2018 2nd for Cohen and a 3rd

2) Gave Carson, Got K.Benjamin

I'm moving him for these types of offers all day for reasons others mentioned above.  Seems to be the flavor of the day right now but think Seattle drafts one next year given how loaded RB is in 2018...

 
Here's a few articles from when Siegele was starting to explore the idea of Agility Scores, which began when he looked at what he termed 'Vision Yards' and wondered if yards before contact were more than just situation/team influenced and if harder-to-tackle, more elusive players created more yards before contact than their peers.  In other words, yards after contact are great, but are yards before contact just as important?  The last article about big dudes like Bell and Doug Martin that move like 200 lb guys is behind RotoViz's paywall (though you can get a free 3-day trial).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-the-contrarian-vision-yards

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-the-contrarian-agility-scores

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-the-contrarian-agility-scores-and-breakout-rbs

http://rotoviz.com/2013/03/agility-scores-leveon-bell-and-doug-martin/
Thanks for the links. I've read the first 3, and while it's an interesting theory it doesn't seem to be very conclusive. His #1 RB to avoid 2 years in a row was Marshawn Lynch, who was one of the best FF RBs both years (as well as the following 2, and I'm guessing he would have stayed on his "avoid" list since his agility score didn't change). Ironically, I've always believed Lynch was overrated myself, but you can't argue with his production.

Guys he pointed out with mediocre and poor agility scores include MJD, AP, Michael Turner and Lynch, so while I'd prefer if Carson had a higher one, it doesn't appear to be a prerequisite for fantasy success.

 
Just traded Carson in 2 leagues, both PPR:

1) Gave Carson and a late 2018 2nd for Cohen and a 3rd

2) Gave Carson, Got K.Benjamin

I'm moving him for these types of offers all day for reasons others mentioned above.  Seems to be the flavor of the day right now but think Seattle drafts one next year given how loaded RB is in 2018...
Anything is possible, but this seems very unlikely, at least early. They've spent a grand total of 1 1st and 2 2nd round picks on RBs in the last 30 years (the 1st rounder was 17 years ago).

 
Important game for Carson...would really like to see him have a big day and solidify himself as their no-doubt #1...don't give anyone else an opening to take this job...gotta believe the Seahawks are rooting big for this to happen...would really make their life a lot easier this year and for the future...as a Carson Owner this would give my roster some real flexibility...if both Carson and Collins have big days this weekend I will be in fantasy nirvana...

 
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If you've read my posts around the board over the years, I'm very big on a metric called Agility Score, which was developed by Shawn Siegele over at RotoViz.  Essentially, you take the 3-Cone and Short Shuttle and add them together (very complicated), and it gives a single number measure of agility from a RB.  For little RBs expected to be COP guys or third down backs primarily, this doesn't really matter that much.  Sub-200lb guys better be able to move and cut or they won't make it in the NFL.  However, when you get big dudes (220+) who can change directions on a dime, that correlates pretty highly with NFL success.

I posted some of this way back on page 5 of the Ty Montgomery thread last year, but look at Agility Scores for drafted running backs weighing 220+  from 2013-2015;
*** Note - some of the elites at the position didn't complete full workouts, so we have no data on them - Gurley, Zeke, etc.
*** Eddie Lacy (231 lbs) ran a 7.33 3-Cone which would've ranked slower than all but Jeremy Hill on the list below.  Lacy didn't run the short shuttle, so we don't have an agility score
*** A single asterisk (*) denotes pro-day numbers instead of combine numbers

2013 - Christine Michael (220 lbs) - 6.69 3-Cone; 4.02 Short Shuttle -- 10.71 Agility Score
2014 - Tyler Gaffney (220 lbs) - 6.78 3-Cone; 4.18 Short Shuttle -- 10.96 Agility Score
2013 - Le'Veon Bell (230 lbs) - 6.75 3-Cone; 4.24 Short Shuttle -- 10.99 Agility Score
2015 - Malcolm Brown (224lbs) - 6.86 3-Cone; 4.15 Short Shuttle -- 11.01 Agility Score
2015 - David Johnson (224lbs) - 6.82 3-Cone; 4.27 Short Shuttle -- 11.09 Agility Score
2014 - Lorenzo Taliaferro (229 lbs) - 6.88 3-Cone; 4.22 Short Shuttle -- 11.10 Agility Score
2015 - Jay Ajayi (221lbs) - 7.10 3-Cone; 4.10 Short Shuttle -- 11.20 Agility Score
2015 - Zach Zenner (223lbs) - 7.08 3-Cone; 4.14 Short Shuttle -- 11.22 Agility Score
2015 - Buck Allen (221lbs) - 6.96 3-Cone; 4.28 Short Shuttle -- 11.24 Agility Score
*2013 - Mike James (223 lbs) - 6.93 3-Cone; 4.34 Short Shuttle -- 11.27 Agility Score
*2015 - Matt Jones (231 lbs) - 6.84 3-Cone; 4.44 Short Shuttle -- 11.28 Agility Score
2014 - Andre Williams (230 lbs) - 7.27 3-Cone; 4.06 Short Shuttle -- 11.33 Agility Score
*2013 - Spencer Ware (228 lbs) - 7.07 3-Cone; 4.27 Short Shuttle - 11.34 Agility Score
2013 - Knile Davis (227 lbs) - 6.96 3-Cone; 4.38 Short Shuttle -- 11.34 Agility Score
2015 - TJ Yeldon (226lbs) - 7.19 3-Cone; 4.22 Short Shuttle -- 11.41 Agility Score
*2015 - David Cobb (229 lbs) - 7.01 3-Cone; 4.55 Short Shuttle -- 11.56 Agility Score
2015 - Karlos Williams (230lbs) - 7.16 3-Cone; 4.46 Short Shuttle -- 11.62 Agility Score
2014 - Alfred Blue (223 lbs) - 7.15 3-Cone; 4.50 Short Shuttle -- 11.65 Agility Score
*2014 - Terrance West (225 lbs) - 7.28 3-Cone; 4.44 Short Shuttle -- 11.72 Agility Score
*2014 - Jeremy Hill (233lbs) - 7.64 3-Cone; 4.59 Short Shuttle -- 12.23 Agility Score

Carson's Agility Score was 11.81, worse than everyone but Jeremy Hill on this list (thus the Yeti comments).  And he did this at 218lbs, below the 220+ threshold set for this list.  His 3-Cone of 7.53 would've ranked slower than everyone but Jeremy Hill (even Lacy bested that by 2 tenths of a second).  His Short Shuttle of 4.28 was middle of the pack, but still was beat by 11 of the 20 we have here.  Carson is an explosive athlete given his very good vertical and broad jumps, and he's not terribly slow with a 4.58 40 (though that's not blazing).

Mixon didn't have a best-in-class agility score for this list either (11.37) but he did so at 228 lbs and still far outpaced Carson.  

When the metrics align with the film, I feel pretty confident in saying that I'll be surprised in the long run if Carson ends up a multiyear RB2+.  He may very well hold the job this year, and even next year, but guys like him tend to eventually get replaced.

ETA - obviously being a good athlete doesn't guarantee NFL success, but being a bad athlete generally leads to an NFL team trying to upgrade.
This is a really good post and thanks for taking the time to lay this all out.

There are some issues I have with this however. First of all the cut off of 220lbs seems arbitrary. You are cutting out great players like Adrian Peterson from your sample size among many others by doing that. There certainly are very good RB who weighed less than 220lbs at the combine.

The other issue I have with the agility score is using the short shuttle as part of the metric. According to this study the short shuttle has the second worst correlation for success in RBs. I have never seen any study to support this metric as actually being relevant. In fact it is one of the worst metrics to use next to the bench press.

The metrics that do matter for RB are 40 time, 3 cone and then weight. The jump numbers have weaker correlation than these three but they are more significant than the shuttle times which is pretty close to zero correlation.

 
Thanks for the detailed response JFS. Do you have any data showing how highly this metric correlates with NFL success? It's one thing to compare it to those other RBs drafted, but honestly not sure if it's all that relevant. It would be more telling to compare it with the more successful NFL RBs, but as you said, many of them didn't complete the drills so that will leave a lot of them out. I might dig into it deeper later, but just as an example I looked at Kareem Hunt, who had a 7.22 3 cone and 4.53 SS for a 11.75 agility score, and those were likely inflated pro-day times. Also, Carson hurt his hamstring at the combine, so that may have been a factor in his Yeti-like 3 cone time.

Obviously Carson didn't have a good agility score, but I'm not so sure that's the be-all-end-all for RBs, and I certainly wouldn't call him a bad athlete. Something to consider though.
See my response to JFS above that addresses your question.

 
Those agility scores are interesting, but as you say can't be taken by themselves, or would run the risk of a rather myopic view/stance to determine a RBs success rate. Obviously vision, patience, lean, technique, decision/processing of data speed, durability, pass defense, receiving ability, and holding onto the ball are also important, which Christine Michael's exceptional agility score could not overcompensate for, hence the importance of the other skills should not be marginalized.

Carson seems to have a well rounded skillset, of which you have shown his agility could be a weakness or at least merely average. However, for jump cutting, or one cut and go, his broad and vert (leaping ability) could be looked upon as a plus as far as athleticism rating for his style. He has also shown great vision. However, I would not take the view that he is a poor/slow athlete (I would take that view with Lacy/Hill, but he is also not exceptionally shifty. Neither are a lot of successful RBs. With a one cut and go you don't really want the RB dancing around McCoy style, and if he tried to start running with that style it would not be successful for him. I don't think he plans to do that.
And that is why watching the players is important.

I would argue that vision is perhaps the most important trait for a RB to have, but also the hardest one to measure and quantify.

 
Why would you trade Carson the week Prosise goes down and SEA is a 13 point home favorite? That doesn't make any sense.
There's two ways this could go:

1) Carson gets 20 touches in prime time and goes nuts

2) Carson gets 20 touches and flops on national television

Depending on the offers, I can't blame anyone for selling. I did so myself in what amounts to a redraft trade where I didn't need RBs, essentially landing Jeffery for Carson and Kupp.

 
This is a really good post and thanks for taking the time to lay this all out.

There are some issues I have with this however. First of all the cut off of 220lbs seems arbitrary. You are cutting out great players like Adrian Peterson from your sample size among many others by doing that. There certainly are very good RB who weighed less than 220lbs at the combine.

The other issue I have with the agility score is using the short shuttle as part of the metric. According to this study the short shuttle has the second worst correlation for success in RBs. I have never seen any study to support this metric as actually being relevant. In fact it is one of the worst metrics to use next to the bench press.

The metrics that do matter for RB are 40 time, 3 cone and then weight. The jump numbers have weaker correlation than these three but they are more significant than the shuttle times which is pretty close to zero correlation.
Appreciate the response, and I don't mean to suggest that Agility Score is the defining trait for any RB to have success. The 220lb cutoff was admittedly arbitrary, but was a result of trying to isolate big backs. Could it have been 215 or used BMI or something? Sure. 

I skimmed the article you posted as I don't have time at present to read in depth, and I'm not sure I'd fully understand it anyway as I have rather limited training in regressions and advanced mathematics. That said, as I was compiling the data above, I noticed that some guys obliterated the 3-cone and were just average in the short shuttle. I know the 3-cone very much matters (as you and the study you posted suggested).  However, doesn't that make the case against Carson as a long term starter even stronger, given his 3-cone was the worst on the list outside of Jeremy Hill (who I'd guess people in here are hoping for more than Hill), and he was lighter than every other player?  

If Hill is the case study, it's a success story for Carson and the Seahawks, but it's probably a relative disappointment for fantasy owners unless they time their exit extremely well. Hill had a great rookie year, but then could never seem to separate from Bernard (who's also a good player), and seemed to frustrate his owners more than anything else. And now they've drafted his replacement after only three seasons (two of which were quite disappointing to his owners. 

 
Thanks for the detailed response JFS. Do you have any data showing how highly this metric correlates with NFL success? It's one thing to compare it to those other RBs drafted, but honestly not sure if it's all that relevant. It would be more telling to compare it with the more successful NFL RBs, but as you said, many of them didn't complete the drills so that will leave a lot of them out. I might dig into it deeper later, but just as an example I looked at Kareem Hunt, who had a 7.22 3 cone and 4.53 SS for a 11.75 agility score, and those were likely inflated pro-day times. Also, Carson hurt his hamstring at the combine, so that may have been a factor in his Yeti-like 3 cone time.

Obviously Carson didn't have a good agility score, but I'm not so sure that's the be-all-end-all for RBs, and I certainly wouldn't call him a bad athlete. Something to consider though.
To clarify, the 3-cone and Short Shuttle times for Carson were from his pro day.  He doesn't have combine times for those events  

 
You like a third down back that didn't do anything down big to Green Bay last week over a potential bell cow in Seattle? Ok.
Absolutely.  I expect Carson to do well against Indy because they suck but still prefer Cohen 10 out of 10 times.  He's not Lynch and is just the flavor of the day right now.  And even if he does take the full time gig, I don't expect it to last very long...Cohen is much safer in PPR leagues IMO b/c of his pass catching abilities...

 
You like a third down back that didn't do anything down big to Green Bay last week over a potential bell cow in Seattle? Ok.
Cohen still had close to 10 pts in a PPR league and didn't touch the ball that much, plus had another 30-35 yds called back due to penalties...

 
Cohen still had close to 10 pts in a PPR league and didn't touch the ball that much, plus had another 30-35 yds called back due to penalties...
This is why I don't play PPR. Cohen deserves his 5 points he got in standard.

 
To clarify, the 3-cone and Short Shuttle times for Carson were from his pro day.  He doesn't have combine times for those events  
I know, but he supposedly injured his hamstring at the combine (not sure if that factored into his decision not to do those events there), and his pro-day was less than a week later.

 
I know, but he supposedly injured his hamstring at the combine (not sure if that factored into his decision not to do those events there), and his pro-day was less than a week later.
I hadn't heard about his injury, but his combine numbers for quickness are incongruous with the above average elusiveness he displays on the field. Dude knows how to run the ball.

 
I hadn't heard about his injury, but his combine numbers for quickness are incongruous with the above average elusiveness he displays on the field. Dude knows how to run the ball.
Really his only bad number is the 3 cone, but I agree that it doesn't jibe with what he has shown (or his other times for that matter).

From this article about his pro day:

During the early portion of the scripted session in the OSU weight room that featured 16 Cowboys, Carson recorded an impressive 39-inch vertical jump. Though he did not participate in the bench press or run the 40 (after tweaking his hamstring during drills at the combine), he displayed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield on flat routes and over the middle.
He mentioned the injury in his post-workout interview where he said he didn't do much in between but rest, so it may have played a factor in his poor 3 cone time considering it was less than a week later. Either way, his game isn't really about elusiveness, and plenty of RBs have had a lot of FF success with similar agility scores, so I'm not too concerned with it.

 
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Carson's "elusiveness" is more related to his explosiveness rather than quickness.  The explosiveness was on display at the combine.  My only complaint about his combine, was that I wished he were 10lbs heavier with that profile.  I was not on him at all during the combine.  However, as soon as he came on the radar, I was able to acquire him in 3 of my 6 dynasty league for a total 1.3% of my bid bucks.  On one of the teams, I am comfortable enough with Carson that I'm trying to trade Ajayi (difficult, hope he blows up this weekend), because I think Carson has more upside. (Ameer is my fallback if Carson  doesn't work out)

 
It was technically a timeshare with Prosise, but again he has a HAS and will probably be out for a while. Neither Rawls nor Lacy bring anything to the table that Carson doesn't already. I know there are rumblings of McKissic filling in for Prosise but even if true I don't think we'll see SEA playing catch-up this game. Carson is also very capable pass catcher regardless.

This is Brissett's first road game as a Colt (hell of a first road game) and I feel like the odds that Carson is tasked with grinding out the clock late in this game, as nearly two score favorites, are good. I know SEA's offense hasn't exactly been clicking due to their OL allowing copious amounts of pressure but IND ranks 27th in sacks - they have trouble in this department. I don't think SEA has much trouble moving the ball Monday. I also know that IND is stingier on the ground than they have been in previous years but if Crowell could manage a 12/44 line and the literal ghost of Chris Johnson could manage a 11/44 line I have to imagine given enough volume Carson will close in on 100 yards.

In all likelihood I think we see Carson used as a bell cow on Monday night which will solidify his value in the eyes of many. This game just sets up too perfectly for him to not see a boost in value - the reward outweighs the risk IMO. I think the true risk is in fact this game being so lopsided that Rawls gets more work than he otherwise would.

 
Appreciate the response, and I don't mean to suggest that Agility Score is the defining trait for any RB to have success. The 220lb cutoff was admittedly arbitrary, but was a result of trying to isolate big backs. Could it have been 215 or used BMI or something? Sure. 

I skimmed the article you posted as I don't have time at present to read in depth, and I'm not sure I'd fully understand it anyway as I have rather limited training in regressions and advanced mathematics. That said, as I was compiling the data above, I noticed that some guys obliterated the 3-cone and were just average in the short shuttle. I know the 3-cone very much matters (as you and the study you posted suggested).  However, doesn't that make the case against Carson as a long term starter even stronger, given his 3-cone was the worst on the list outside of Jeremy Hill (who I'd guess people in here are hoping for more than Hill), and he was lighter than every other player?  

If Hill is the case study, it's a success story for Carson and the Seahawks, but it's probably a relative disappointment for fantasy owners unless they time their exit extremely well. Hill had a great rookie year, but then could never seem to separate from Bernard (who's also a good player), and seemed to frustrate his owners more than anything else. And now they've drafted his replacement after only three seasons (two of which were quite disappointing to his owners. 
To sum the article up the author uses approximate value a metric developed by pro football reference which uses statistical performance of the players as well as starts and pro bowls to determine the players value in a season. The study measures how important combine metrics were for approximate value for the players first 3 seasons in the league.

He does this for all positions. In the graph for the RB you can see that the correlation coefficient for the short shuttle is near zero. Meaning it was not predictive of RB performance as measured by approximate value.

The 3 cone does show some correlation with RB performance, but still not as much as the 40 time does. It is the second most predictive metric for RB. 

As many of us already know this, Carsons poor 3 cone time is where the Yeti joke comes from. 

Weight was the 3rd most predictive metric in the study. So weight does matter. It isn't clear to me where a cut off or threshold for weight should be however, just that being heavier helps RB be more productive. I am not sure what would be the best method to use for weight and that study does not go into detail about this. I think ideally if we could quantify this according to its predictive value per pound, then give this a value you could then input that variable for every player based on their weight at the time of the combine. Even so this is problematic because players weights change a lot. Some players drop weight for the combine if this helps them run a faster 40 time, then add weight back after the combine for their playing weight. Its a moving target and the measurement at one point in time (the combine) is not necessarily the weight the player will play at for most of their career.

The combine metrics are still about half as predictive as the players draft position having correlation coefficients of around .4 or worse. For a cc to be considered predictive, you are looking for .8 cc so in a relative sense the combine metrics are not very predictive at all. It is just that some metrics are relatively more predictive than others. The teams consider this information as far as which players they will draft and when, so those metrics are already baked in to the draft position, which is much more predictive of players success. No need to double count these metrics. Draft position is flawed as well, it is just much better than using combine metrics are.

Jeremy Hill could be a reasonable comparison to Carson based on that information I think. Jordan Howard or Spencer Ware also might be decent comparisons for him. I have watched Carson some, but not really enough for me to say who he reminds me of though. He isn't the type/style of player I personally like, but I am not coaching the Seahawks. He fits a player type that I think Pete Carroll prefers based on his comments about this at many different times I have read/heard him talk about what he is looking for in a RB.

eta- sorry my summary became so long winded. The main point I am trying to make here is that the short shuttle is one of the least predictive combine metrics for the RB position. So I think you would be better off not using that.

 
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