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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (3 Viewers)

kittenmittens said:
I only gave one example :)  

Seattle isn't afraid to move on from anyone though - they've shown that many times and it is their MO and they will move on from much more important players than RB.  It was reported that they offered to trade a 2nd round pick to get Jacoby Brissett before the Wilson contract was signed, which seems like writing on the wall that they were even willing to move on from their superstar QB.  

I think my narrative is already out there... that's why Carson is going "late" I would imagine.  I think he's a massive risk in the early 4th round and wouldn't touch him.  I'll touch him even less in Dynasty.
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I can buy the dynasty angle...the Wilson situation, Frank Clark, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas...yes, they aren’t afraid to move on when the time comes.  But aren’t most of those situations financial in nature?  For Carson, who is on year 3 of a 7th round contract...that certainly won’t be the case until 2021.  

Interesting to get a viewpoint from someone down on him though...adds context for what I believe a value ranking.  If the guy is who he showed he was in 2018, I don’t see how he doesn’t outperform RB25.  They’ll ride with him...I’d even say the ceiling is higher because I don’t think Carroll bought into him until at least October.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
I can buy the dynasty angle...the Wilson situation, Frank Clark, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas...yes, they aren’t afraid to move on when the time comes.  But aren’t most of those situations financial in nature?  For Carson, who is on year 3 of a 7th round contract...that certainly won’t be the case until 2021.  

Interesting to get a viewpoint from someone down on him though...adds context for what I believe a value ranking.  If the guy is who he showed he was in 2018, I don’t see how he doesn’t outperform RB25.  They’ll ride with him...I’d even say the ceiling is higher because I don’t think Carroll bought into him until at least October.
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I think financial is part of the equation, but I also think they are just not afraid to play whoever is playing well and "earning it" in training camp/practice/games.  I'd say they might even be a bit too quick to move on from players, though I generally agree with the mentality to just play the "best" players regardless of other factors.

I also don't hate Carson and I do think he has a lot of upside, I just think his ADP is too early and at that part of the draft I would rather get a safer player than Carson.  I like him a lot more in the 6th than I do the 4th round.  Around that 45 area I'm targeting Diggs, Cooks, Woods, Edelman, or Golladay in redraft... or if Ertz or Kittle fall there of course.

He has a pretty long history of injuries going back to high school, the defense is a lot worse, he's definitely in a committee and maybe not the leader, there might be additional unexpected dark horse competition for RB touches,  

 
kittenmittens said:
I think financial is part of the equation, but I also think they are just not afraid to play whoever is playing well and "earning it" in training camp/practice/games.  I'd say they might even be a bit too quick to move on from players, though I generally agree with the mentality to just play the "best" players regardless of other factors.

I also don't hate Carson and I do think he has a lot of upside, I just think his ADP is too early and at that part of the draft I would rather get a safer player than Carson.  I like him a lot more in the 6th than I do the 4th round.  Around that 45 area I'm targeting Diggs, Cooks, Woods, Edelman, or Golladay in redraft... or if Ertz or Kittle fall there of course.

He has a pretty long history of injuries going back to high school, the defense is a lot worse, he's definitely in a committee and maybe not the leader, there might be additional unexpected dark horse competition for RB touches,  
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The last 7 games of 2018, when SEA went 6-1, Carson per game average was 105 YFS and 1 TD on 21 touches.

I’m not saying I’m expecting that for 16 games, but 1) I think he earned some serious credibility as an essential cog on that team and 2) RB’s who finished in that RB25 area were guys like Sony Michel, Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake (don’t think the player projection, think the 2018 production).  That would be a serious pullback...

He does have a hard running style so the concern for injury is not irrelevant.  He seeks out contact.  But I’m simply surprised his 2018 hasn’t bought him more fans...

 
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According to Michael Shawn-Dugar of The Athletic, Chris Carson "continues to look like the best running back" on the Seahawks' roster.

Building off a breakout 2018 that saw him rush for over 1,000 yards, Carson has reportedly been a standout at Seahawks training camp. Sophomore Rashaad Penny has also shown well this summer, though in Shawn-Dugar's estimation, "he's just not at the same level as Carson right now." Penny has time to make up ground with the regular season still over a month away, but at present, Carson seems to have a fairly comfortable lead in Seattle's backfield race. Currently being drafted as the RB26 in fantasy, the third-year ball-carrier looks like a bargain at his fifth-round ADP.

RELATED: 

Rashaad Penny

SOURCE: The Athletic

Aug 4, 2019, 9:14 AM ET
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Guy is a monster.

Having Penny there is perfect. It adds extra fuel to kick butt in practice and keeps his ADP way below where it should be. 

 
Pete Carroll has talked about a "one-two punch" at running back with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. That may be a hint that the Seahawks plan to spell Carson more this year than they did last year, when Penny was third in the pecking order behind Carson and Mike Davis. "It keeps defenses on their toes and it keeps us fresh," Carson said.

Brady Henderson, ESPN
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The Seahawks' official website believes both Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson are "poised for big things."

By all accounts, Carson has kept hold of No. 1 status, but Penny continues to push for the change-of-pace role the Seahawks want him to seize. Provided the Seahawks employ the same offense they did last season — which all evidence points to — the backfield will be big enough for the two of them, with Carson operating as an RB2 and Penny providing FLEX value.

RELATED: 

Chris Carson

SOURCE: seahawks.com

Aug 6, 2019, 6:45 PM ET
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The Seahawks want to get Chris Carson more involved in the passing game.

"We need to get him more involved in the passing game," was OC Brian Schottenheimer's exact quote. "He’s got unbelievable hands, and he’s a problem for people coming out of the backfield." The Seahawks targeted their running backs just 84 times in 2018, the second-lowest number in the league. Carson is buying Schotty's new commitment to using his backs as pass catchers. "He’s splitting (us) out wide, putting (us) in different spots around the field." Schotty's words come the same day the Seahawks' official website said the team was expecting "big things" from both Carson and Rashaad Penny. Increased passing-game usage would go a long way toward firewalling Carson's RB2 status ahead of COP-back Penny.
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Would you take 15-17 carries plus 2-4 receptions for Chris Carson? YES PLEASE.

 
This guy is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL.

No Respect!!

Ranked 24th in redraft ppr rankings, 27th in dynasty. 24 year old who is in a run heavy offense. 

I realize there are a lot of Penny truthers still out there, but by all accounts Carson is out playing Penny by a large margin, while Penny has finally "learned how to practice" 

Health depending, sign me up for the OVER on where he finishes with regards to where FBG has him ranked right now.

 
Pete Carroll said Chris Carson "will catch the ball more this year, for sure."

The Seahawks coaching staff has mentioned this multiple times this offseason and with Doug Baldwin (50 receptions) and Mike Davis (34 receptions) gone, it's easy to buy it. Carson and Rashaad Penny should both see more pass-catching work, but Carroll specifically went out of his way to talk up Carson's receiving ability in the Sirius XM interview, even saying that Carson might have the best hands on the team. Carson is a steal at the Round 4/5 turn if the Seahawks get him going as a receiver in 2019.

RELATED: 

Rashaad Penny

SOURCE: Sirius XM NFL on Twitter

Aug 11, 2019, 6:44 PM ET
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Matthew Berry's inaugural Love/Hate for 2019

Chris Carson, Seahawks: Did Chris Carson do something unthinkable that I'm just not aware of? Is he mean to kids? Kick animals? Did he spoil the end of "Avengers: Endgame" for you on Twitter? Look, he must have done something, because the fantasy football community hates Chris Carson. And having done something terrible is the only explanation I can come up with. Because otherwise his seventh-round ADP and current RB25 rank make no sense. He's the starting running back on the run-heaviest team in the NFL and he'll turn 25 in September. After an injury ended his rookie season after just four games, he came back strong in Year 2. Last season, he finished with three straight games of at least 115 rushing yards and a rushing score, the longest such streak since Adrian Peterson in 2012 (he did it four straight).

Before you yell "Rashaad Penny" at me, you do know Mike Davis and his 146 touches last season are now in Chicago, right? Penny can receive a significant increase in touches this season and Carson will still get tons of volume. In fact, those 146 touches may not all go to Penny. There's a chance Carson gets even more work here. While getting healthier as the season went on, no player had more rushing attempts in Weeks 14-17 last season than Carson (90 for 447 yards and five touchdowns in four games). Last season, the only three running backs to run for at least 1,100 yards and nine rushing touchdowns were Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley II and ... Chris Carson.

Last point here. Let's do a quick blind résumé. Here are two players:

Chris Carson
• 13.4% of his carries gained 10-plus yards, while he failed to gain positive yardage 16.2% of the time.
• Sixth among 37 RBs with 125 carries last season in yards per carry after first contact
• 4.7 yards per carry, 82.2 rushing yards per game
• Scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in 28.6% of his games, averaged 14.39 PPG

Player B
• 6.8% of his carries gained 10-plus yards, while he failed to gain positive yardage 20.3% of the time.
• 29th among 37 RBs with 125 carries last season in yards per carry after first contact
• 3.3 yards per carry, 54.9 rushing yards per game
• Scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in 50% of his games, averaged 15.05 PPG

They basically scored the same number of fantasy points per game, but all the underlying numbers suggest you'd much rather have Carson than Player B, right?

Then someone explain to me why Leonard Fournette (Player B above) is going 30-plus picks ahead of Carson! Carson is on a better team, with a better QB, better offense, and Fournette has missed 11 games in two years (including eight last season). Carson has missed 14 games in two years, but the majority of them came in his rookie season of 2017 (Carson played 14 games last season). Neither guy is huge in the passing game (although camp reports suggest both will be used more this season), and the Penny situation is a positive for me. Penny is going in the 12th round, will be flex-viable in his own right, and you know exactly whom to handcuff if you draft Carson. Behind Fournette, the Jags are a mess. Chris Carson is free money.
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I'm done hyping him up because I'm done 14-team mocks and I've see him go in the sixth and seventh rounds multiple times. I have no idea what's going on anymore.

 
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Seahawks OC Brian Schottenheimer wants Chris Carson's targets to be in the 50 range.

That would be a little more than double last year's total (24). It's certainly in range with Mike Davis vacating 42 targets, especially when Pete Carroll went out of his way to say Carson might have the best hands on the entire team. There's enough smoke here to buy into a bump in receiving production in 2019, making Carson a quality RB2 option in fantasy drafts. Expect Rashaad Penny to see a bump in catches, too. There is room for two fantasy viable backs on this roster.

SOURCE: Joe Fann on Twitter

Aug 13, 2019, 3:00 PM ET
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There was some discussion about Carson in another thread back in May, starting here. My take then:

ZWK said:
Carson ran for 247/1151/9 last year, one of only a handful of backs to have over 80 yards per game. He looked like Seattle's best RB. He was effective as a receiver even though he wasn't used a lot in that role (20 catches on 24 targets with just 1 drop). Now they've lost Mike Davis, who had 112 carries & 42 targets. That means 1) Carson could maintain his rushing workload even if Seattle runs less, and 2) Carson should get more targets. And Carson with 2 more targets per game gives you Joe Mixon.

Of course, he'll need to hold off Penny in order to do it. But I'd say that he's more likely than not to do that.
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It is now looking even more likely that he'll successfully hold off Penny, and his coaches are talking about him getting those targets.

 
I think the other contributing factor to his "lack of respect" is Seattle took Penny in the 1st round and generally speaking organizations will give those players every opportunity for them to be successful.  So while Carson is outperforming Penny they may be using that as fuel to drive Penny instead of someone suggesting Penny being there is motivating Carson to play better.  IMO Penny doesn't have to outperform Carson, only be close as the organization will break ties in favor of Penny.  

BTW, I'm not saying Seattle will play an inferior player so if Carson is truly outperforming Penny and putting Penny in the lineup would hurt their chances of winning I don't believe they would do it.

-DD

 
NBC Sports' Joe Fann anticipates "Chris Carson taking at least two-thirds of the workload" with Rashaad Penny filling in the rest.

Fann calls Penny "the clear No. 2 in the 1-2 punch" and believes Penny will see "a few series a game." In this run-heavy offense, Penny should still see enough volume to remain a flex option, especially if the Seahawks target their backs more like they've said repeatedly this offseason. With that said, Carson looks like the running back with the higher upside and floor.

RELATED: 

Chris Carson

SOURCE: NBC Sports

Aug 14, 2019, 3:11 PM ET
Click to expand...

 
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Chris Carson rushed 15 times for 46 yards and one touchdown and caught 6-of-7 targets for 35 yards and one touchdown in the Seahawks' Week 1 win over the Bengals.

Carson not only out-touched Rashaad Penny (21 to six), but he actually had more touches than Russell Wilson had pass attempts (20). The Seahawks tried to establish the run, but when that wasn't working, they got Carson going as a pass-catcher. That is exactly what the Seahawks' coaching staff was preaching this offseason, and it's fantastic news for Carson's outlook moving forward. Carson has a tough matchup at Pittsburgh in Week 2, but Carson has goal-line and pass-catching work, which puts him on the RB1/2 borderline.
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SEVEN TARGETS

I remember saying this last offseason, Chris Carson can catch the ball. He's not James White but he doesn't have stone hands; If he can even average 5 targets a game he's going to solidly his RB1 status. Though I doubt he continues to triple his touches vs. Penny, dude ran as the clear #1 and was trucking guys after the catch.

 
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Chris Carson what are you doing???

2 fumbles in this game and anyone who knows Carroll is the quickest way to lose your job is to put the ball on the ground. That's the third fumble on the season for a guy who usually never coughs it up.

 
Smack Tripper said:
based on what?  You fumble early in fantasy you end up in the dog house
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Collins had a huge fumble history and was trying to be the starter as an UDFA RB, Carson has ZERO fumble history, already is the entrenched starter and is playing with a coach who loves him. 3 fumbles in 2 games and he's still out there. Collins was literally a "you fumble and you ain't touching the ball again". BTW I know because I had Collins all of 2017, when he was first fighting for playing time and watching Buck Allen get all the goalline carries.

EDIT: Also the 2nd fumble was attributed to Russell Wilson, so only 1 fumble for Carson this game.

 
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Chris Carson rushed 15 times for 61 yards and caught all three of his targets for 27 yards in the Seahawks' 28-26, Week 2 win over the Steelers.

After losing a fumble in Week 1, Carson lost another two in this one and nearly tried to give the game away to Pittsburgh. His second fumble set up Pittsburgh deep in Seattle territory and an eventual easy touchdown for Vance McDonald to pull the Steelers within two points. Despite the fumbles, Carson was able to help kill the clock and seal the win. But Rashaad Penny was definitely more involved after the fumbles and rushed 10 times for 62 yards and a score. Perhaps Penny will start closing the gap on Carson, who will be a back-end RB2 next week against the Saints.
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Again, only 1 fumble.

 
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Carson fumbled again. Was close, and after a huge yardage rip, but got ball punched out yet again as he was falling. Led to a direct TD by the Saints D who recovered and brought it back to the house.

Carson seems really susceptible to specifically getting the ball punched out, which is totally preventable in most cases. Not good.

Prosise in. Prosise is talented but so far hasn't generated push.

This is going to get interesting. And it's terrible for my team who really depends on getting solid RB2 from Carson. Can't see how he doesn't lose carries from this going forward until he gets it out of control. We'll see what happens in 2nd half.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Carson fumbled again. Was close, and after a huge yardage rip, but got ball punched out yet again as he was falling. Led to a direct TD by the Saints D who recovered and brought it back to the house.

Carson seems really susceptible to specifically getting the ball punched out, which is totally preventable in most cases. Not good.

Prosise in. Prosise is talented but so far hasn't generated push.

This is going to get interesting. And it's terrible for my team who really depends on getting solid RB2 from Carson. Can't see how he doesn't lose carries from this going forward until he gets it out of control. We'll see what happens in 2nd half.
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Between him slipping three times for losses and the fumble I would assume we see someone else. Good back but coaches not patient with fumbles.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Between him slipping three times for losses and the fumble I would assume we see someone else. Good back but coaches not patient with fumbles.
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Slipping is a tough call.

On one hand, it's hard to fault him on unless he is wearing the wrong cleats, it's clearly a "muddy" track in the rain.

On the other hand, they play in Seattle, they should be used to the rain, and slipping is also somewhat related to losing fumbles in the rain. Should be preventable.

I'm more concerned with the fumbles, but seeing probs with Carson's footing in the second half as well where I am not sure I am seeing it from Kamara or other players.

Hmm.

 
Smack Tripper said:
Absolute dead weight, giving Prosise the goalines.... what a bum
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They're in hurry up offense. He's not losing his job to Prosise. But i wouldn't be surprised if he is benched for Penny. 

My third and fourth round picks were Carson and Michel and that's how you lose. 

 
shadyridr said:
They're in hurry up offense. He's not losing his job to Prosise. But i wouldn't be surprised if he is benched for Penny. 

My third and fourth round picks were Carson and Michel and that's how you lose. 
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My first 3 were Connor, Adams, Carson in 2 leagues.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Can someone hold me and tell me it's all going to be all right, and Carson won't lose too many touches?

Please?
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he's still clearly their best back, but Pete doesn't take the fumbling lightly.

Probably best to sit him for 2-3 weeks and hopefully he regains some trust.  I think he's down to 50 percent of the touches next week if Penny comes back

 
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