BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I think all 3 WRs are going to have good weeks. They were in comeback mode last week so everybody ate; there will be weeks where Galladay or Jones don't get theirs simply because of game plan or game script.hounder said:
Everyone is super excited about the KG breakout but understand that he's still not getting as many plays called specifically for him compared to MJJ or Tate. But he's a playmaker and he has definitely expanded his route tree this year.
Jim Bob Cooter almost always plays it safe in the first half or first three quarters, and if it's close or (distant memories) they're ahead, they will continue to dink and dunk with Theo and Golden. They don't open things up and let Stafford do Stafford things until they're hopelessly behind.
IMO Tate is the safe PPR play because he's gonna catch 90+ for a fifth straight year, while MJJ or Galladay will have more Brandin Cooks type production - not a ton of targets unless they've abandoned the run & screen game, they'll each have big days and half their games will be meh. KG is by far the most talented but you cannot legislate usage.
KG will be the teams #1 in 2019 when Tate is playing somewhere else. Personally I don't think he will have enough targets to get here this year.
Just for kicks, let's look at the too-small-to-really-know sample size of 2018 through 2 games:
Stafford - 99 attempts. I am fairly confident he won't have 792 PA this season. Hasn't topped 600 since 2014. Has average 36.47 /g in the JBC era, so let's make it 37 for 592 on the season.
Tate - 28 targets extrapolates to 224. Has averaged 8.41 targets in his Lions career, fairly consistent production, so put him down for 135 94-1070-5
Golladay - 21 targets = 168 over 16. That is Megatron market share, seems highly unlikely. But he doesn't need that many IMO. 120 71-1075-8
MJJ - 17 targets = 136, his career high is 107. Like Tate, very consistent year over year. Just using the averages from his last 49 games: 108 62-965-6
RBs - 29 targets so far. In the JBC era: 2015 - 164, 2016 - 114, 2017 -111. I am projecting 135 this year. Theo is still a security blanket and Kerryon is a good receiver.
TEs - non-factor thus far, let's give them 50 targets (which might be generous but not by much.)
TJ Jones - 49 targets a year ago, but much of that production was when KG was hurt. But he gets a few looks every game. 25 targets.
That's 573 targets so I think we're in the ballpark.
71-1075-8 is great value for where he was drafted. Not WR1 territory, more like high WR2, but not bad for a second year player who was a little raw coming out.
