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POLL CLOSED Player #38 Community Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Who would you rank 38th in a 12 team dynasty league, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DEF PPR with standard sc

  • Rookie Pick 1.5

    Votes: 16 18.8%

  • Corey Coleman

    Votes: 14 16.5%

  • Lamar Miller

    Votes: 14 16.5%

  • Stefon Diggs

    Votes: 8 9.4%

  • Lesean Mccoy

    Votes: 11 12.9%

  • Jordy Nelson

    Votes: 5 5.9%

  • Doug Moncrief

    Votes: 5 5.9%

  • Doug Baldwin

    Votes: 11 12.9%

  • Russell Wilson

    Votes: 1 1.2%

  • Other (put the name and the fact you clicked Other in the comments)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    85
B

Brisco54

Footballguy
A second tie in a row, third overall.  Demaryius Thomas & Derrick Henry both received 11 of 57 votes to tie for the 10th pick of the third round (34th overall)..  Everyone  received votes this round.  That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/forum/2-the-shark-pool-nfl-talk/?do=add

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

Russell Wilson was added by the "Other" button.

Time to pick #38.

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry
 
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Baldwin is in line for another monster season with Lockett coming off that serious injury.....barring an injury to himself he's a great bet to put up his 3rd WR1 season in a row next year. I have him ranked quite a bit higher than consensus.

 
Vote to add hunter Henry

On second thought, add Tyreek Hill. 

 
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I went Shady here. Between him and Miller for me.

No idea who I would vote to add next... it's going to get very muddled here real soon. 

 
Man, at this point, I would go against the longevity and probably take 2 years of a guy like Nelson or Mccoy.

Glad I am not doing any drafts this year.  It seems like a very hard year for a start up.

 
I went Corey Coleman. With Henry and Ajayi off the board I vote to add Tevin Coleman. 

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Man, at this point, I would go against the longevity and probably take 2 years of a guy like Nelson or Mccoy.

Glad I am not doing any drafts this year.  It seems like a very hard year for a start up.
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Totally agree. They both should have one really good year and one pretty good year left in the tank. I'll take that at this point over what's left.

 
voiceofunreason said:
Lack of love? The fifth pick in a rookie draft is worth more than Jordy Nelson? Rookie crazy in here imo and you've got a bad case of rookie fever.
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this is a dynasty thread correct?? usually when I see guys spend a late 3rd (or in this case 4.1) on a player like Jordy they often quit the league a few years later. Even if they decide to move him later they find he has little value as we all know the extent of ageism in dynasty lol. Whereas I know that 1.05 is going to have nice trade value for a good 18 month period for certain. Now I guess Jordy is a good pick here if you go all out year one and don't care about building a good longer team squad. Just my two cents

 
Aunt Jemima said:
this is a dynasty thread correct?? usually when I see guys spend a late 3rd (or in this case 4.1) on a player like Jordy they often quit the league a few years later. Even if they decide to move him later they find he has little value as we all know the extent of ageism in dynasty lol. Whereas I know that 1.05 is going to have nice trade value for a good 18 month period for certain. Now I guess Jordy is a good pick here if you go all out year one and don't care about building a good longer team squad. Just my two cents
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2 to 4 years of elite play has a lot more value than the 1.05 historically. 

 
voiceofunreason said:
2 to 4 years of elite play has a lot more value than the 1.05 historically. 
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maybe our leagues are quite different but in FFPC I'm in about 6 leagues and I can assure you in all 6 I can get more for the 1.5 than Nelson. Let's say you are correct though hypothetically. You still take the 1.5 here and get Jordy plus something for it

 
Aunt Jemima said:
this is a dynasty thread correct?? usually when I see guys spend a late 3rd (or in this case 4.1) on a player like Jordy they often quit the league a few years later. Even if they decide to move him later they find he has little value as we all know the extent of ageism in dynasty lol. Whereas I know that 1.05 is going to have nice trade value for a good 18 month period for certain. Now I guess Jordy is a good pick here if you go all out year one and don't care about building a good longer team squad. Just my two cents
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It all depends. Rookie picks have zero value until a player is draft AND starts producing on Sundays. In game day sense for your fantasy team. I know this is a "in a vacuum" situation but for team make up it's a bit different.

We're at 4.1 right now so in a draft we'd be picking in the 12 spot. Our team would be Gurley, Robinson, DT and *Jordy. For a starting line up, that's not too bad. I'd be looking to add Bree's later too.

Going "old" in Dynasty is, IMO, the best option. Leagues fold, people quit, etc. If you can cash in Year 1 or 2, then who cares if you need to rebuild? You already have a title and are playing with house money.

For me the only reason to take 1.05 here is to trade it. People get a bit crazy when their guy falls in the rookie draft. Just on this board, at 1.05 there's people who will say you're stupid if you think anyone one of Fournette, Williams, Davis, Cook, McCaffery, Mixon will fall to 5. 

 
If you look at the players already listed as players taken, it has quite a few players that went in the 1.5 range of their respective rookie drafts.

Michael Thomas last year. Cooks went in that range. Hopkins did. Bell did.  OBJ did. 

So let's not pretend that it's just rookie fever. While you can miss, most of the top dynasty assets are obtained at this point in the rookie draft.

 
gianmarco said:
If you look at the players already listed as players taken, it has quite a few players that went in the 1.5 range of their respective rookie drafts.

Michael Thomas last year. Cooks went in that range. Hopkins did. Bell did.  OBJ did. 

So let's not pretend that it's just rookie fever. While you can miss, most of the top dynasty assets are obtained at this point in the rookie draft.
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But we are also talking about the guy coming off an ACL who finished as the second WR last year, and was very close to the top WR. His game should age well and he has an amazing connection with his QB. 

I think it's a close call, but I go Jordy here. 

 
kutta said:
But we are also talking about the guy coming off an ACL who finished as the second WR last year, and was very close to the top WR. His game should age well and he has an amazing connection with his QB. 

I think it's a close call, but I go Jordy here. 
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I know who we're talking about, but his age is an issue that can't be fixed.  His value only goes down from here, not up.  And we have no way to know how fast it will go down.  That risk is just as big as risks with all rookie picks. 

As you said, he was the 2nd WR last year and yet 17 WRs have been selected before him.  Last year's 1.5 in many drafts (Michael Thomas) is this year's 2.5 in a startup. 

As to the bolded, keep in mind the following:

Player A --

Age 31 season -- 92/1351/7
Age 32 season -- 63/711/3

Player B --

Age 31 season -- 109/1407/5
Age 32 season -- 85/936/3

Player C --

Age 31 season -- 109/1502/14
Age 32 season -- 61/721/8

Jordy Nelson --

Age 31 season -- 97/1257/14
Age 32 season -- ????

The players above -- A = Roddy White, B = Andre Johnson, C = Brandon Marshall.  In particular, look where Marshall's value is now.  All guys that were premium dynasty WRs whose value completely tanked right around this same point in their career.  And when you consider Jordy is only signed for 2 more years, there's no guarantee he even stays in GB beyond this year if his numbers fall off. 

Even if he is one of the very few exceptions like Larry Fitzgerald, a HOF WR, look at his trade value (now and recently) and Larry is ONLY 33.  And this despite 2 solid years these last two years.

Taking Jordy this early in a startup is a mistake, IMO.  I can understand an established team moving a 1.5 for Jordy in certain circumstances, so the trade value may be similar, but the startup value is very different when most teams are on equal footing from a value standpoint.  Also, this is a perfect example of why it's also usually not useful to use startup ADP as a trade value indicator in established leagues.

 
gianmarco said:
I know who we're talking about, but his age is an issue that can't be fixed.  His value only goes down from here, not up.  And we have no way to know how fast it will go down.  That risk is just as big as risks with all rookie picks. 

As you said, he was the 2nd WR last year and yet 17 WRs have been selected before him.  Last year's 1.5 in many drafts (Michael Thomas) is this year's 2.5 in a startup. 

As to the bolded, keep in mind the following:

Player A --

Age 31 season -- 92/1351/7
Age 32 season -- 63/711/3

Player B --

Age 31 season -- 109/1407/5
Age 32 season -- 85/936/3

Player C --

Age 31 season -- 109/1502/14
Age 32 season -- 61/721/8

Jordy Nelson --

Age 31 season -- 97/1257/14
Age 32 season -- ????

The players above -- A = Roddy White, B = Andre Johnson, C = Brandon Marshall.  In particular, look where Marshall's value is now.  All guys that were premium dynasty WRs whose value completely tanked right around this same point in their career.  And when you consider Jordy is only signed for 2 more years, there's no guarantee he even stays in GB beyond this year if his numbers fall off. 

Even if he is one of the very few exceptions like Larry Fitzgerald, a HOF WR, look at his trade value (now and recently) and Larry is ONLY 33.  And this despite 2 solid years these last two years.

Taking Jordy this early in a startup is a mistake, IMO.  I can understand an established team moving a 1.5 for Jordy in certain circumstances, so the trade value may be similar, but the startup value is very different when most teams are on equal footing from a value standpoint.  Also, this is a perfect example of why it's also usually not useful to use startup ADP as a trade value indicator in established leagues.
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Jordy Nelson is currently 31 years old. He will be 32 years old on May 31st and will be 32 years old at the beginning of the 2017 season.

Roddy White

While White does decline from his age 31 to age 32 season, he only played in 13 games. In his age 33 season White has 80/921/7 in 14 games. You do see a decline in Whites yards per reception following his age 31 season that did not return to previous level for him,

Andre Johnson

Johnson had 162/112/1598/4 in his age 31 season, then 181/109/1407/3 his age 32 season. Shows marked decline in his age 33 season and does not recover to previous level.

Larry Fitzgerald

His worst year was his age 31 season. IIRC this was the result of really poor QB play and Fitzgerald also playing through an injury. He has been playing at a very high level in his age 32 and age 33 seasons.

While I agree with your overall point, that drafting a 32 year old WR does carry the risk of that player declining. However that risk becomes greater when the player is 33 years old than it is at age 31 years old.

Neslon is 32 now. I don't really see him as being that different than Dez Bryant and DeMarius Thomas, Doug Baldwin, except that all 3 of these players have longer before that age 33 decline (four seasons) than Jordy Nelson who only has one season left before his age 33 season. 

I think Nelson should be fine for the 2017 season, but after this year it starts getting dicey because of his age. If Nelson does end up playing at a high level through his age 33 and 34 seasons (2018 and 2019) he would be bucking the trend of the historical data, but it is possible. I just wouldn't consider it likely.

 
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gianmarco said:
I know who we're talking about, but his age is an issue that can't be fixed.  His value only goes down from here, not up.  And we have no way to know how fast it will go down.  That risk is just as big as risks with all rookie picks. 

As you said, he was the 2nd WR last year and yet 17 WRs have been selected before him.  Last year's 1.5 in many drafts (Michael Thomas) is this year's 2.5 in a startup. 

As to the bolded, keep in mind the following:

Player A --

Age 31 season -- 92/1351/7
Age 32 season -- 63/711/3

Player B --

Age 31 season -- 109/1407/5
Age 32 season -- 85/936/3

Player C --

Age 31 season -- 109/1502/14
Age 32 season -- 61/721/8

Jordy Nelson --

Age 31 season -- 97/1257/14
Age 32 season -- ????

The players above -- A = Roddy White, B = Andre Johnson, C = Brandon Marshall.  In particular, look where Marshall's value is now.  All guys that were premium dynasty WRs whose value completely tanked right around this same point in their career.  And when you consider Jordy is only signed for 2 more years, there's no guarantee he even stays in GB beyond this year if his numbers fall off. 

Even if he is one of the very few exceptions like Larry Fitzgerald, a HOF WR, look at his trade value (now and recently) and Larry is ONLY 33.  And this despite 2 solid years these last two years.

Taking Jordy this early in a startup is a mistake, IMO.  I can understand an established team moving a 1.5 for Jordy in certain circumstances, so the trade value may be similar, but the startup value is very different when most teams are on equal footing from a value standpoint.  Also, this is a perfect example of why it's also usually not useful to use startup ADP as a trade value indicator in established leagues.
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Good data. I do think Jordy's situation is different from those guys (no stud on the other side and great QB), but I get your point.

I guess I'm looking at this from an established team perspective too, since I own Jordy and I know I would not move him for the 1.05 because I'm in a championship window. I do see that in a startup, which this is, it is much closer.

 
gianmarco said:
I know who we're talking about, but his age is an issue that can't be fixed.  His value only goes down from here, not up.  And we have no way to know how fast it will go down.  That risk is just as big as risks with all rookie picks. 

As you said, he was the 2nd WR last year and yet 17 WRs have been selected before him.  Last year's 1.5 in many drafts (Michael Thomas) is this year's 2.5 in a startup. 

As to the bolded, keep in mind the following:

Player A --

Age 31 season -- 92/1351/7
Age 32 season -- 63/711/3

Player B --

Age 31 season -- 109/1407/5
Age 32 season -- 85/936/3

Player C --

Age 31 season -- 109/1502/14
Age 32 season -- 61/721/8

Jordy Nelson --

Age 31 season -- 97/1257/14
Age 32 season -- ????

The players above -- A = Roddy White, B = Andre Johnson, C = Brandon Marshall.  In particular, look where Marshall's value is now.  All guys that were premium dynasty WRs whose value completely tanked right around this same point in their career.  And when you consider Jordy is only signed for 2 more years, there's no guarantee he even stays in GB beyond this year if his numbers fall off. 

Even if he is one of the very few exceptions like Larry Fitzgerald, a HOF WR, look at his trade value (now and recently) and Larry is ONLY 33.  And this despite 2 solid years these last two years.

Taking Jordy this early in a startup is a mistake, IMO.  I can understand an established team moving a 1.5 for Jordy in certain circumstances, so the trade value may be similar, but the startup value is very different when most teams are on equal footing from a value standpoint.  Also, this is a perfect example of why it's also usually not useful to use startup ADP as a trade value indicator in established leagues.
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Good points. 

Switch Jordy with Baldwin (Top 10 WR finish) and how much does this change your opinion on player vs pick?

 
Borden said:
Good points. 

Switch Jordy with Baldwin (Top 10 WR finish) and how much does this change your opinion on player vs pick?
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He's 28, turning 29 so there is a 3 year age difference. The issue with Baldwin is less about age and more about the lack of pedigree and late bloomer in his career. If you think his last two years are legit, then he warrants a spot here and possibly higher. 

His risk isn't as much age related as it is perceived talent related.

 
Brandon Marshall is a pretty good illustration of the hidden risk here because a year ago Marshall WAS Jordy in this discussion.   Jordy is seen as the "safer" pick vs the rook but in a lot of ways he's the riskier pick because his path to being worth virtually nothing is much quicker, whereas the 1.05 will retain some solid exit value even with a poor year.

One mediocre season out of Marshall and suddenly you can't move him for a late 2nd round rookie pick.  Jordy has been less than elite for one reason or another (mostly injury) in 2 of his last 5 seasons so it's certainly no given that he's going for 100-1500-15 next year and if he doesn't his value is completely shot.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Brandon Marshall is a pretty good illustration of the hidden risk here because a year ago Marshall WAS Jordy in this discussion.   Jordy is seen as the "safer" pick vs the rook but in a lot of ways he's the riskier pick because his path to being worth virtually nothing is much quicker, whereas the 1.05 will retain some solid exit value even with a poor year.

One mediocre season out of Marshall and suddenly you can't move him for a late 2nd round rookie pick.  Jordy has been less than elite for one reason or another (mostly injury) in 2 of his last 5 seasons so it's certainly no given that he's going for 100-1500-15 next year and if he doesn't his value is completely shot.
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Jordy's big selling point is that he plays with perhaps the best QB in the game in perhaps the best passing offense in the league. HUGE difference from Marshall.

 
kutta said:
Jordy's big selling point is that he plays with perhaps the best QB in the game in perhaps the best passing offense in the league. HUGE difference from Marshall.
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Marshall had been a good to great, 1,000+ yard receiver for 9 of the last 10 seasons.

Jordy has done it 4 times in his career and only 3 of his last 5 seasons.

If anything Jordy's "selling point" is a bad thing, not a good thing.  Brandon Marshall being elite with a bunch of junk QBs up to that point in his career is MUCH MUCH MUCH better than a guy that is dependent on his QB to be so.  All it means is that Jordy's value is tied not only to his own health, but Rodgers' as well.  That's a bad thing, not a good thing.

 
Borden said:
It all depends. Rookie picks have zero value until a player is draft AND starts producing on Sundays. In game day sense for your fantasy team. I know this is a "in a vacuum" situation but for team make up it's a bit different.

We're at 4.1 right now so in a draft we'd be picking in the 12 spot. Our team would be Gurley, Robinson, DT and *Jordy. For a starting line up, that's not too bad. I'd be looking to add Bree's later too.

Going "old" in Dynasty is, IMO, the best option. Leagues fold, people quit, etc. If you can cash in Year 1 or 2, then who cares if you need to rebuild? You already have a title and are playing with house money.

For me the only reason to take 1.05 here is to trade it. People get a bit crazy when their guy falls in the rookie draft. Just on this board, at 1.05 there's people who will say you're stupid if you think anyone one of Fournette, Williams, Davis, Cook, McCaffery, Mixon will fall to 5. 
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I agree that this is a pretty good strategy - zig when they zag.  Most of us are so focused on the future and young guys that we don't put forward the best possible team in years 1-2.  If you pick Jordy here, get DeMarco Murray next round and guys like Crabtree, Brees, Olson, Fitz in future rounds you might steal the first couple of years - especially if you trade next years #1.

Of course, the problem is if you don't hit your team is old with very few tradable assets and in for a long rebuild. 

Most times, I see owners start along this path and then lose their nerve and in the middle round and start to hedge their bets - then they end you with a mixed bag.

 
JuniorNB said:
He definitely is consistent.  I'd have no fear of him putting up a dud season (barring injury, of course).  He's seems to always be a lock for a 1000 yard/10 TD season. And I'd expect the same this year.  Let's take Allen Robinson as a comparison. If you told me that one of these two would have 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns, I'd be almost positive that it would be Robinson. He's so young and only really got going last season. We don't even know yet what he can be.  But, by the same token, if you told me one of the two had 850 yards and only 6 touchdowns, I'd also guess that it was Robinson. For those same reasons. I guess it depends if you are looking for the consistency or the higher ceiling.
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menobrown said:
If someone takes Green at 1.4 in a PPR no one would bat an eye. Solid enough pick. Yet in Marshall's last 3 full seasons he's had better fantasy seasons in each of those years than AJ Green has EVER had. Yet if someone took Marshall at 1.4 people would laugh at the dumb pick.

Similar with Dez who is now falling a bit with Romo out but before the Romo injury Dez had been going in that 4-10 range. I believe if you lined up all of Dez's fantasy seasons vs Marshalls and listed them in top 4 Marshall would have had the best, second best and 4th best seasons with Dez's best year slotting in third. Dax is now the QB and Dez still goes over Marshall in some drafts.

Robinson was great last season, he was still about 2.5 PPG under Marshalls production and similar to Dez if you lined up Robinsons season last year versus Marshalls past 3 full seasons Marshall would have had the best, second best and 4th best season with Robinson's year as third best. Robinson is younger and probably better than last season, also has more comp for targets and put up ton of production last year in junk mode.

Mike Evans is a good looking WR with a really nice playoff schedule. But even if you gave him similar yards/receptions of last year and gave him TD's of his rookie year he's not even close to Marshall's production in his last 3 full seasons.

Keenan Allen got off to an amazing start last year and it was still not as good as Marshall in per game. Allen also entered the league the same year as Jordan Reed and has played  a grand total of 3 more games than him. Tons of people think Reed is biggest bust candidate of the year, due mainly to injury and yet I almost never hear this said about Allen.

Marshall was slightly better than Hopkins last season. Hopkins is ascending player and should have a nice QB updgrade but he's got a much higher risk of target regression due to other options. I would absolutely not pick Marshall over Hopkins but really is it that crazy?

I think the only issue with Marshall is his age. He's old, it is not a non-issue for me.  Older players don't usually heal so quickly. Marshall looked great last season but sometimes older players don't regress so much as they dive off a cliff. So these things are possible but on the other hand Marshall lost weight and actually looks quicker than he did last season.
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TartanLion said:
Happily grabbed him in the 3rd round this year, so I'm on this bandwagon. He may have to play a little banged up a few times this season in a true grizzled veteran sense, but I'm hopeful he has a big year ahead. He seems to be a little undervalued right now I think, WR3 from last year, going in the late 2nd sometimes 3rd round ? Thats great value if he repeats last year or even comes close to it. Decker's there to draw attention, Fitz is back now, sometimes fantasy is a guess and/or luck, but the theory behind Marshall having another great season is at least very solid and sound in logic.
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These posts are just some examples of how Marshall was viewed less than a year ago. 

 
Aunt Jemima said:
maybe our leagues are quite different but in FFPC I'm in about 6 leagues and I can assure you in all 6 I can get more for the 1.5 than Nelson. Let's say you are correct though hypothetically. You still take the 1.5 here and get Jordy plus something for it
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Yes, you usually can get more for the rookie than "old" receivers.  Because everyone has a use for the rookie but in established leagues the market for older players is limited.  

But most of the successful, as in super bowl winning, teams (in my leagues anyway) tend to value producing players over rookies.  

Different perspectives for sure - trade value vs winning.

But I'll take Baldwin over either.  Give me 4 years of good production.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Marshall had been a good to great, 1,000+ yard receiver for 9 of the last 10 seasons.

Jordy has done it 4 times in his career and only 3 of his last 5 seasons.

If anything Jordy's "selling point" is a bad thing, not a good thing.  Brandon Marshall being elite with a bunch of junk QBs up to that point in his career is MUCH MUCH MUCH better than a guy that is dependent on his QB to be so.  All it means is that Jordy's value is tied not only to his own health, but Rodgers' as well.  That's a bad thing, not a good thing.
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We can agree to disagree.

Jordy only has a 2-3 years left, and those will be spent in GB with Rodgers. Marshall has horrible QB play last year and the whole team was a disaster. Granted, he declined physically too, I'm not arguing that. But I believe GB will find ways to use Jordy even when he starts to decline. His conneciton with Rodgers is off the chart, and even when Jordy loses a step, as he did this year, he still has an excellent chance to be elite due to the GB offense and Rodgers.

 
Here is an article describing the career arc of WRs by age.

I have seen this same pattern in many other analysis of the position as well.

Basically a WR shows some improvement in their performance to a peak age of 27 years old (2 years later than a RBs peak age). From age 28 to 32 the WRs show some gradual decline from their peak, but for the most part they maintain that level of performance until they are 33 years old when the decline becomes steeper.

Using the blue line which represents the careers of WR from the year 2000-2011 the peak is at normalized 9 PPG and declines two PPG at age 32 to 7. While this is a significant decline, it isn't as much of a drop as you see from the age 32 season to the age 33 season, where WR drop 3 PPG in one season. 

I consider the 2000-2011 data to be incomplete and because of that the sample size necessarily cutting off at 2011. This is where I consider the 1990 (red line) and 1980s data to be more complete. Some trailing off years of players careers being cut off is the main reason why.

Looking at the 1990 data, you see the same trend, peaking at age 27 but it is more gradual decline from age 28-34. The difference is less than one PPG until the age 33 season where the decline becomes stepper. At the age 35 is the first time the decline is 2 PPG difference.

So I think it is possible that Jordy Nelson does not decline much over the next 3 seasons, he is crossing two important age landmarks of decline, age 33 and age 35 four years from now. If you compare this to Doug Baldwin who will be 29 years old for the 2017 season. he has 3 seasons before this age landmark of 32 is reached, and then another two seasons before the steeper drop occurs.

That said Jordy Nelsons decline would be from a higher peak than Doug Baldwins.

Jordy Nelson over his last 3 seasons (have to skip his age 30 season as he was injured) has scored 18.7 PPG in PPR so a decline of 3 PPG at his age 33 season (2018) would mean Nelson should score 15.7 PPG that year.

Doug Baldwin over his last 3 seasons has scored 14.4 PPG which is still 1.3 PPG less than Nelson when you apply that age discount.

eta- because of normalization of the data this 3 PPG discount may not be accurate in real numbers. So this 3 PPG difference may not be in the correct scale because of that. 

 
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As Adam Harstad has written about, WRs generally don't decline gradually. Instead their production goes off a cliff at some point. One year the guy is a top 10 fantasy WR, the next he is not startable (see: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson). Or maybe he has 1 or 2 decline years where he still has some fantasy value, in between his years as a star and when he is no longer fantasy relevant (see: Roddy White, Marques Colston, Wes Welker). This can happen at any time, but the older a WR is, the more likely he is to hit the wall that year. In Harstad's chart, 32-year-old WRs have a 30% chance of going off a cliff, and that "mortality rate" keeps going up from there.

 
ZWK said:
As Adam Harstad has written about, WRs generally don't decline gradually. Instead their production goes off a cliff at some point. One year the guy is a top 10 fantasy WR, the next he is not startable (see: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson). Or maybe he has 1 or 2 decline years where he still has some fantasy value, in between his years as a star and when he is no longer fantasy relevant (see: Roddy White, Marques Colston, Wes Welker). This can happen at any time, but the older a WR is, the more likely he is to hit the wall that year. In Harstad's chart, 32-year-old WRs have a 30% chance of going off a cliff, and that "mortality rate" keeps going up from there.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this

 
ZWK said:
As Adam Harstad has written about, WRs generally don't decline gradually. Instead their production goes off a cliff at some point. One year the guy is a top 10 fantasy WR, the next he is not startable (see: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson). Or maybe he has 1 or 2 decline years where he still has some fantasy value, in between his years as a star and when he is no longer fantasy relevant (see: Roddy White, Marques Colston, Wes Welker). This can happen at any time, but the older a WR is, the more likely he is to hit the wall that year. In Harstad's chart, 32-year-old WRs have a 30% chance of going off a cliff, and that "mortality rate" keeps going up from there.
Click to expand...
Yes when you look at it on a case by case basis the WR tends to maintain their level of performance until they reach an age where their productivity falls off, just like all other players. In a lot of cases there is an injury or some other factor involved with the players performance declining, not just the age. The older the player is, the less likely the team is going to stick with that player and give them the same opportunity as when they were a younger player. Some injuries players cannot come back from, regardless of their age, but the younger that player is, the better chance of a full recovery and the team giving that player a chance to find out.

The production curve models are representing the average of all the WR in the sample to find the tendency but each player has their own unique career path. In this case you want to consider Jordy Nelsons career and how likely a decline from him will be sudden or gradual. Nelsons career does follow the typical curve for WR where he breaks out at age 26 and pretty much maintains that level of performance when healthy since. His best fantasy season so far occurs at age 29 which is also very similar to his age 31 season.

Just using Alees chart linked in post above, a 3 PPG decline at age 33 for Jordy Nelson would be a 16% discount. Three points per game for Doug Baldwin would be 20% discount. The point being that the more points the player is scoring before their decline has an effect on what that actual percentage will be. So I would need to see the math that arrives at that number, which seems a bit high to me.

 
-OZ- said:
Yes, you usually can get more for the rookie than "old" receivers.  Because everyone has a use for the rookie but in established leagues the market for older players is limited.  

But most of the successful, as in super bowl winning, teams (in my leagues anyway) tend to value producing players over rookies.  

Different perspectives for sure - trade value vs winning.

But I'll take Baldwin over either.  Give me 4 years of good production.
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I think there has always been a market inefficiency in dynasty leagues which causes some owners to place more value on youth and potential than actual performance.

It is a bit of a trap because these owners are valuing the players for their peak performance before the players have even shown what that actually is, then by the time the player reaches that peak age (26-28 for a WR) the same owners are already thinking about exit value on that same player. These same owners think they are selling high by sending off these players before they decline and become less sought after trade assets because of their age, even if that players performance hasn't yet declined. 

I think it is obvious that it can be pretty easy to take advantage of a person who holds this perspective because you can buy Antonio Brown and so on from them when those players reach age 29 or even younger than that for the folks who are selling before then. It also creates a market where you can sell youth and potential for more than their production really justifies.

The thing that people seem to forget is that owners have contingency plans. I can afford to have older players fall off and no longer be productive if I also have high quality replacements for those players waiting in the wings. And every year provides an opportunity to buy proven players for a discount because of owners being concerned about their value falling off the cliff.

 
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