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POLL CLOSED Player #39 Community Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Who would you rank 39th in a 12 team dynasty league, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DEF PPR with standard sc

  • Corey Coleman

    Votes: 7 13.0%

  • Lamar Miller

    Votes: 9 16.7%

  • LeSean Mccoy

    Votes: 5 9.3%

  • Doug Baldwin

    Votes: 6 11.1%

  • Stefon Diggs

    Votes: 11 20.4%

  • Jordy Nelson

    Votes: 3 5.6%

  • Donte Moncrief

    Votes: 3 5.6%

  • Russell Wilson

    Votes: 3 5.6%

  • Rookie Pick 1.6

    Votes: 3 5.6%

  • Tyreek Hill

    Votes: 3 5.6%

  • Mark Ingram

    Votes: 1 1.9%

  • Other (put the name and the fact you clicked Other in the comments)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    54
B

Brisco54

Footballguy
Rookie pick 1.5 won the second pick of the fourth round, 38th overall with 16 of 84 votes.  Every other option received votes.    That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754720-player-38-community-dynasty-rankings/?page=2

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

I had single nominations for Tyreek Hill, Mark Ingram & Tevin Coleman, but since 1.5 won, I need to replace it with 1.6.  


Time to pick #39.

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5
 
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Guys, if you do not have a nomination consider seconding someone else's.

The three nominations left over from last round are:

Tyreek Hill

Mark Ingram

Tevin Coleman

 
Voted other: Mark Ingram 

not because I'd actually take him here but because I believe he should be an option at this point..

 
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-OZ- said:
Did you just get around to watching his tape?  The dude needs more playing time but if Andy wants a dynamic offense, he's the way to make it happen. 
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I think he's a gimmick type player and those type of guys usually do not sustain their production consistently. You can not count on him breaking numerous long TD runs. I could be wrong of course, but I think taking him this early would turn out to be a huge blunder.

 
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Only 43 votes so far and we are operating with a minimum of 50 so I am going to leave this one up for a while more.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think he's a gimmick type player and those type of guys usually do not sustain their production consistently. You can not count on him breaking numerous long TD runs. I could be wrong of course, but I think taking him this early would turn out to be a huge blunder.
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Certainly a valid view.  I probably like him better for the short term as I do question whether he'll age well. But he is more than a gimmick player imo. Some called Steve smith a gimmick player at first too. Tyreek isn't smurf but he has similar game break ability. 

As mentioned in his thread, he is better in return leagues.  

 
Tyreek Hill may turn out to be a flash in the pan gimmick player, but as of right now he is a player that scored 12 TDs as a rookie and had a role in the rushing and passing attack.

I think that I value Hill somewhere round pick 1.6.  Gimmick player or not, he has proven NFL performance that has athletic skills off the charts.  It is hard for me to imagine a rookie that would have equal or better potential/probability of success that will be available at 1.6.

That said, he would not be a contender on the current poll because I would never consider 1.6 this early.  At least 50% of the rookies taken 1.6 to 1.12 will never earn a top 40 overall ranking.  At least a third of them will never be worthy of putting in a lineup.

Every other player on the list is lineup worthy right now.

One more thing, for those of you that think Hill is more a 1.10-2.4 rookie pick level player... if the player you pick at 1.6 this year has exactly the same stats as Hill had last year, would you feel you wasted the pick?

 
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Brisco54 said:
Tyreek Hill may turn out to be a flash in the pan gimmick player, but as of right now he is a player that scored 12 TDs as a rookie and had a role in the rushing and passing attack.

I think that I value Hill somewhere round pick 1.6.  Gimmick player or not, he has proven NFL performance that has athletic skills off the charts.  It is hard for me to imagine a rookie that would have equal or better potential/probability of success that will be available at 1.6.

That said, he would not be a contender on the current poll because I would never consider 1.6 this early.  At least 50% of the rookies taken 1.6 to 1.12 will never earn a top 40 overall ranking.  At least a third of them will never be worthy of putting in a lineup.

Every other player on the list is lineup worthy right now.

One more thing, for those of you that think Hill is more a 1.10-2.4 rookie pick level player... if the player you pick at 1.6 this year has exactly the same stats as Hill had last year, would you feel you wasted the pick?
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Well for those of us that don't play in leagues which reward for returns he scored 9 TDs (which is still impressive). While a game where he had one carry for 68 yards and a TD shows that he possess big play abilities and obvious speed -  I just see that as a little fluky, in that I'm not sure I can rely on that happening too often.

I would not trade the 1.06 for him (and the 1.06 shouldn't be coming off the board anytime soon anyway as you said) - but if a WR I drafted there scored 9 TDs of course I'd be pleased, but if he amassed those stats the same way that Hill did, I may be a bit wary and look to sell high.

If I had Hill on my team, I'd hope that he could build off last season and I would have some excitement about him, but he's not a guy I'd target at all. We've seen these type of gadget/big play guys burst on the scene before and not be able to sustain that production going forward.  

It's possible Hill bucks that trend, but spending a 4th Round start up pick on him to find out is not something I would do. I think you're "buying" him at his upside - while ignoring the downside. Admittedly at this point a bunch of players on the list have some risk and any could fall off the face of the Earth and it wouldn't be shocking, but most have just as much upside and are safer imo.

To add some further context I was offered Hill a few weeks ago (from a very good owner that has won the league twice) for my 2.04 and I rejected it. He ended up selling him to some one else for the 2.06 and the trade was largely ignored - no one batted an eye. I think one owner mentioned that he thought it was a cheap price - but that was about it. To be completely honest, I regret turning that offer down a little now, but I'm not overly shaken up about it. I like that part of the draft and I feel like I could land a very nice player there.

 
I believe Cordarralle Patterson was valued similarly to where Tyreek Hill is being talked about after his rookie season. That didn't turn out so well.

I think it makes sense to be skeptical of the small sample size and big plays generated from surprise and constraint plays which are usually not sustainable.

 
Let me address the Tyreek Hill discussion from another angle:

Player A:  61-593-6 267-3 = 199 fantasy points in ppr leagues (no return yardage)

Player B: 66-888-4 1-6 = 193.50 fantasy points in ppr leagues

Both of these players were UDFA as rookies (although player B was in his second season after red-shirting most of his rookie season). Player A is Hill. Player B is Cameron Meredith.

Meredith had basically the same amount of fantasy points as Hill, and did it as a more traditional WR and in a far worse situation (playing with three mediocre to terrible QBs). I think his production is much more sustainable, yet Meredith will likely not see a spot on these polls until about Round 8-9 at best. That's where I would start to consider Hill.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Let me address the Tyreek Hill discussion from another angle:

Player A:  61-593-6 267-3 = 199 fantasy points in ppr leagues (no return yardage)

Player B: 66-888-4 1-6 = 193.50 fantasy points in ppr leagues

Both of these players were UDFA as rookies (although player B was in his second season after red-shirting most of his rookie season). Player A is Hill. Player B is Cameron Meredith.

Meredith had basically the same amount of fantasy points as Hill, and did it as a more traditional WR and in a far worse situation (playing with three mediocre to terrible QBs). I think his production is much more sustainable, yet Meredith will likely not see a spot on these polls until about Round 8-9 at best. That's where I would start to consider Hill.
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I actually like Meredith but he strikes me more as a consistent player who might repeat his stats from this year but lacks upside.  

Compared to the other receivers on the list, it's just a matter of risk whether you prefer him to the older guys or diggs.  I don't see taking Coleman over him but I'm clearly the minority in that opinion. 

Hill is definitely worth the 1.06 (a little more imo, probably the 5), though that's probably the best comp we've used here. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Let me address the Tyreek Hill discussion from another angle:

Player A:  61-593-6 267-3 = 199 fantasy points in ppr leagues (no return yardage)

Player B: 66-888-4 1-6 = 193.50 fantasy points in ppr leagues

Both of these players were UDFA as rookies (although player B was in his second season after red-shirting most of his rookie season). Player A is Hill. Player B is Cameron Meredith.

Meredith had basically the same amount of fantasy points as Hill, and did it as a more traditional WR and in a far worse situation (playing with three mediocre to terrible QBs). I think his production is much more sustainable, yet Meredith will likely not see a spot on these polls until about Round 8-9 at best. That's where I would start to consider Hill.
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I like these postings from you. One of those "the more you know" moments 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Let me address the Tyreek Hill discussion from another angle:

Player A:  61-593-6 267-3 = 199 fantasy points in ppr leagues (no return yardage)

Player B: 66-888-4 1-6 = 193.50 fantasy points in ppr leagues

Both of these players were UDFA as rookies (although player B was in his second season after red-shirting most of his rookie season). Player A is Hill. Player B is Cameron Meredith.

Meredith had basically the same amount of fantasy points as Hill, and did it as a more traditional WR and in a far worse situation (playing with three mediocre to terrible QBs). I think his production is much more sustainable, yet Meredith will likely not see a spot on these polls until about Round 8-9 at best. That's where I would start to consider Hill.
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I am not advocating picking Tyreek this early but I can see the appeal also.  To "prove" your point, you could have used Adam Thielen in your comparison also.  :rolleyes:

If you just look at the second 1/2 of the season (weeks 8-16), he was the #7 overall WR.  He did not get many touches early (as a 5th round rookie) until Maclin went down with injury and then they were forced to play him.  Once he got his chance, it was evident to everyone how dynamic he was and they will have to play him and get him the ball this year.

Andy Reid stated in January that he wants to "double" the amount of snaps from what he got last year (only averaged 33/game).  So while his TD-rate might be unsustainable, he should have increased opportunity which could offset that. 

He's only 23, has great hands, world-class speed and a much better WR than he is given credit for and the same size as Antonio Brown.  I know Tyreek won championships for a lot of people last year.  So, at this point considering that most of the WRs we are discussing have flaws, are "older," or have never produced close to what Hill did in 1/2 of a rookie year, I don't see why he shouldn't be in the discussion. 

 
garlicduck said:
I am not advocating picking Tyreek this early but I can see the appeal also.  To "prove" your point, you could have used Adam Thielen in your comparison also.  :rolleyes:

If you just look at the second 1/2 of the season (weeks 8-16), he was the #7 overall WR.  He did not get many touches early (as a 5th round rookie) until Maclin went down with injury and then they were forced to play him.  Once he got his chance, it was evident to everyone how dynamic he was and they will have to play him and get him the ball this year.

Andy Reid stated in January that he wants to "double" the amount of snaps from what he got last year (only averaged 33/game).  So while his TD-rate might be unsustainable, he should have increased opportunity which could offset that. 

He's only 23, has great hands, world-class speed and a much better WR than he is given credit for and the same size as Antonio Brown.  I know Tyreek won championships for a lot of people last year.  So, at this point considering that most of the WRs we are discussing have flaws, are "older," or have never produced close to what Hill did in 1/2 of a rookie year, I don't see why he shouldn't be in the discussion. 
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I think his point is Hill is one of those guys that will be over drafted (redraft) and over valued (dynasty) when you can get the same production much later. He (I believe) even mentioned Golden Tate as a guy that has similar stats to many already drafted/currently on this list. It's a typical moneyball scenario. Sure, Hill has much more upside than Meredith. We all can concede that. However, this is where I make most of my best moves; drafting the guy who is going to get me the points but not be as flashy of a name. It wins me championships. I've been trying to quit fantasy football for 3 seasons. Told my wife when I stopped winning money I'd quit. So, this kind of thinking works. It's why I don't like to draft WR2/3 until much much later. You can always find a guy who can produce like a WR2 for much cheaper than round 3-5. 

 
If I recall Hill was being moved for picks in the 1.10-1.12 range in the dynasty trade thread and most people thought that was about right, so it seems way early for him here when 1.6 isn't even off the board yet.

No way I would consider moving a mid-1st for Hill personally.  His big play rate is completely unsustainable.  If Hill supporters are going to convince people to be higher on him the path to do that is in breaking down how his game will translate well in a more traditional role because pointing to the stats that were accumulated via big plays that won't be repeated at that rate isn't going to do it.

 
Dr. Brew said:
I think his point is Hill is one of those guys that will be over drafted (redraft) and over valued (dynasty) when you can get the same production much later. He (I believe) even mentioned Golden Tate as a guy that has similar stats to many already drafted/currently on this list. It's a typical moneyball scenario. Sure, Hill has much more upside than Meredith. We all can concede that. However, this is where I make most of my best moves; drafting the guy who is going to get me the points but not be as flashy of a name. It wins me championships. I've been trying to quit fantasy football for 3 seasons. Told my wife when I stopped winning money I'd quit. So, this kind of thinking works. It's why I don't like to draft WR2/3 until much much later. You can always find a guy who can produce like a WR2 for much cheaper than round 3-5. 
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FreeBaGeL said:
If I recall Hill was being moved for picks in the 1.10-1.12 range in the dynasty trade thread and most people thought that was about right, so it seems way early for him here when 1.6 isn't even off the board yet.

No way I would consider moving a mid-1st for Hill personally.  His big play rate is completely unsustainable.  If Hill supporters are going to convince people to be higher on him the path to do that is in breaking down how his game will translate well in a more traditional role because pointing to the stats that were accumulated via big plays that won't be repeated at that rate isn't going to do it.
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Again, I am not advocating picking Tyreek this early.  But, he's only 23, finished as the #7 WR for last 1/2 of season and "if" he could be converted to a more traditional slot WR could be a monster for the next 10 years.  Why is it "acceptable" to draft Moncrief here?  Must be because he is 6' 2'' because he has done nothing to deserve this ranking either. 

 
garlicduck said:
Again, I am not advocating picking Tyreek this early.  But, he's only 23, finished as the #7 WR for last 1/2 of season and "if" he could be converted to a more traditional slot WR could be a monster for the next 10 years.  Why is it "acceptable" to draft Moncrief here?  Must be because he is 6' 2'' because he has done nothing to deserve this ranking either. 
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Then when do we start discussing Taylor Gabriel? Guy had an equally good second half of the season by all accounts. 

FWIW I absolutely dislike Moncrief. I will probably not draft him at all unless it's for a huge deal as my WR3

 
Dr. Brew said:
Then when do we start discussing Taylor Gabriel? Guy had an equally good second half of the season by all accounts. 

FWIW I absolutely dislike Moncrief. I will probably not draft him at all unless it's for a huge deal as my WR3
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And yet 3 people voted for Moncrief here.  I think part of the Hill appeal is if he hits, he might hit big and then you get to look smart!  Even if he regresses a little, he has a decent chance to be a WR3 with only 10 touches a game.  Not sure too many other WRs on the board have that potential.  So, I don't see there being that much risk here. 

At this point, there are 18 WRs off the board and I could make an argument for 10-12 being the next one to go including Tyreek.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Let me address the Tyreek Hill discussion from another angle:

Player A:  61-593-6 267-3 = 199 fantasy points in ppr leagues (no return yardage)

Player B: 66-888-4 1-6 = 193.50 fantasy points in ppr leagues

Both of these players were UDFA as rookies (although player B was in his second season after red-shirting most of his rookie season). Player A is Hill. Player B is Cameron Meredith.

Meredith had basically the same amount of fantasy points as Hill, and did it as a more traditional WR and in a far worse situation (playing with three mediocre to terrible QBs). I think his production is much more sustainable, yet Meredith will likely not see a spot on these polls until about Round 8-9 at best. That's where I would start to consider Hill.
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How did you get these results on fantasy points?  By my count Tyreek had 201 points (61+59.3+36+26.7+18) using those stats and Meredith had 179.4 (66+88.8+24+0.6)

(Your mistake might be linked to how you changed reporting their stats... you did not list Hill's rushing attempts, but you did list Meredith's attempt.  To match, it should have listed Hill as 24-267-3 and Meredith as 1-6-0)

That's an 11 percent increase and over a point per week difference.

 In the first 6 weeks, when Hill was a bench warmer, he only scored 45 of his 201 fantasy points.The means he had 156 points in the last 10 weeks or 15.6 a week and it was surprisingly level considering his gimmick status.  In the final ten weeks, he only had one week where he failed to achieve 10 fantasy points and that week he got 6.2.

I am intrigued by Meredith, but his performance came across as the starter for the entire year. Worse, it really came in 4 weeks.  He scored 98.2 of his 179.4 total points in four weeks.  That means he averaged close to 25 PPG for 4 weeks, but averaged only 6.7 PPG the other 12 weeks.  That's pretty weak in PPR.

So once Hill was named starter, he had one single week where he put up a stinker... but he still put up about the same amount of points that Meredith averaged over 12 weeks.  

Yes, intuitively, Hill is more of a boom/bust start... but in reality he was not... Meredith was.

 
Brisco54 said:
How did you get these results on fantasy points?  By my count Tyreek had 201 points (61+59.3+36+26.7+18) using those stats and Meredith had 179.4 (66+88.8+24+0.6)

(Your mistake might be linked to how you changed reporting their stats... you did not list Hill's rushing attempts, but you did list Meredith's attempt.  To match, it should have listed Hill as 24-267-3 and Meredith as 1-6-0)

That's an 11 percent increase and over a point per week difference.

 In the first 6 weeks, when Hill was a bench warmer, he only scored 45 of his 201 fantasy points.The means he had 156 points in the last 10 weeks or 15.6 a week and it was surprisingly level considering his gimmick status.  In the final ten weeks, he only had one week where he failed to achieve 10 fantasy points and that week he got 6.2.

I am intrigued by Meredith, but his performance came across as the starter for the entire year. Worse, it really came in 4 weeks.  He scored 98.2 of his 179.4 total points in four weeks.  That means he averaged close to 25 PPG for 4 weeks, but averaged only 6.7 PPG the other 12 weeks.  That's pretty weak in PPR.

So once Hill was named starter, he had one single week where he put up a stinker... but he still put up about the same amount of points that Meredith averaged over 12 weeks.  

Yes, intuitively, Hill is more of a boom/bust start... but in reality he was not... Meredith was.
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Meredith started 10 games, not all 16.  And he went toe to toe with Hill in those last 5 weeks, except in a sustainable fashion.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Meredith started 10 games, not all 16.  And he went toe to toe with Hill in those last 5 weeks, except in a sustainable fashion.
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Ok, maybe I used the wrong term, but the simple truth is that Hill was largely on the bench until week 6 whereas Meredith was on the field from the second half of week 1.  In those six games where you state Meredith was not the starter, he had 264 offensive team snaps whereas Hill only had 81.  Meredith had over 26 offensive team snaps in all but week one, and over 40 snaps in all but weeks one and two.

Hill did not achieve 20 offensive team snaps until week 7.  

On the year, Meredith averaged 3.92 offensive snaps per fantasy point....  Hill averaged 2.07  That means Hill was twice as productive for each play he was on the field.  (To put that in perspective, if Hill had the same rate of production but Meredith's snap count, he would have scored 339.6 points.  That's about 20 more points that Antonio Brown if I remember right.

No, I do not think any of us believe that is sustainable but even if you decrease his snaps per fantasy point by a full 50% (from 2.0 to 3.0) but also increase his snap count the promised 33% he still would have had 184 fantasy points compared to Meredith's 179.4.  

Again, I am intrigued by Meredith, but his 2016 performance is not in the same ballpark as Hill's.

 
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I can't believe people like stefon diggs this much. I feel like that means I need to reevaluate him but I honestly don't feel like I'm missing out in the slightest by not having him. 

What I see is a guy who looks like their best receiver for now, who got 112 targets, less than 11 yards a catch and 3 tds in 13 games.  I don't see his target share going up much either - they drafted Treadwell early, have thielen sort of emerging, have Rudolph looking decent, and their qb blows.  If he were the highly touted rookie like Treadwell, maybe.  But he was a 5th round pick who had to overachieve to get to his current spot.  Can he make another leap in year 3? Sure.  But picking him in the top 40? Not a chance.  He seems to be on a path to maybe break 90 catches or 1000 yards with crap tds... am I supposed to be seeing more upside than that and if so why?  If not,why would you take him in the top 40 picks of a start up? 

Sell me on him being better than Tyrell Williams.  Diggs has a worse qb, worse production, worse measurables... 

 
bostonfred said:
I can't believe people like stefon diggs this much. I feel like that means I need to reevaluate him but I honestly don't feel like I'm missing out in the slightest by not having him. 

What I see is a guy who looks like their best receiver for now, who got 112 targets, less than 11 yards a catch and 3 tds in 13 games.  I don't see his target share going up much either - they drafted Treadwell early, have thielen sort of emerging, have Rudolph looking decent, and their qb blows.  If he were the highly touted rookie like Treadwell, maybe.  But he was a 5th round pick who had to overachieve to get to his current spot.  Can he make another leap in year 3? Sure.  But picking him in the top 40? Not a chance.  He seems to be on a path to maybe break 90 catches or 1000 yards with crap tds... am I supposed to be seeing more upside than that and if so why?  If not,why would you take him in the top 40 picks of a start up? 

Sell me on him being better than Tyrell Williams.  Diggs has a worse qb, worse production, worse measurables... 
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I can't speak for others but from my perspective Mike Wallace compared Diggs to Antonio Brown as a rookie, then his play has backed that up somewhat when he is healthy.

Diggs was a star in his first college season. He was even on my radar because of that and I do not really follow college football. He had injuries and missed games is the main reason I think he fell as far as he did in the NFL draft. Those injuries still seem to be an issue as Diggs misses games or plays games when not fully effective. I know at least one of his games last season, he was used as a decoy only early on in the game before they shut Diggs down.

People love to hate Sam Bradford, but he played a lot better than I expected under the circumstances. It is amazing he stayed healthy. He took a lot of big hits.

This is not going to be the same Vikings offense that was built around Peterson anymore. It is going to be a pretty wide open passing attack until the Vikings blocking proves it can sustain a running game, and with Bradford + Shurmur, I expect it to stay that way for awhile. So more opportunity for receivers ahead.

Kyle Rudolph should not lead the Vikings in targets in 2017. If he does, things have gone terribly wrong again. Rudolph is not good enough to justify that volume. He is just the guy Bradford dumps off to a lot when nothing else is open.

I haven't watched Tyrell Williams enough to compare them, but Diggs is an excellent route runner who creates separation in a lot of different ways. He is a complete WR and should be the Vikings number one target in 2017 and going forward. 

 
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