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jwsbowler

What is Hunter Henry's Trade Value

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Tough to say, late 1st? Hard to move that for Henry with the tes available in the late 1st.

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Tough to say, late 1st? Hard to move that for Henry with the tes available in the late 1st.

Im trying to make sure I am reading this right. Are you saying you can get a better rookie TE in the draft than Henry? 

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I don't know why you'd trade say 1.08 right now for Henry when you can get a good young te in this years class. Henry looked good for a stretch last year but I don't think someone is passing up the talent in the late first this year when they have a shot to add a decent te prospect as well later on. 

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4 hours ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Im trying to make sure I am reading this right. Are you saying you can get a better rookie TE in the draft than Henry? 

If the pool likes Howard at 1.07, are you saying you'd give the 1.06 for HH?

Not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to your thoughts here. 

Edited by Snorkelson

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18 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

If the pool likes Howard at 1.07, are you saying you'd give the 1.06 for HH?

Not trying to be argumentative, just curious as to your thoughts here. 

Nope, my question was from a legitimate, I know nothing about this year's TEs standpoint. 

As far as the class in general, I don't know that Henry is worth a first round pick. 

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53 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Nope, my question was from a legitimate, I know nothing about this year's TEs standpoint. 

As far as the class in general, I don't know that Henry is worth a first round pick. 

This is a very deep te class, with 3 good/elite te prospects and probably 2-3more that you could have a reasonabe shot from a production/athletic standpoint. Shark pool 1.07 pick vote went te OJ Howard over combine winners Rb Alvin Kamara and WR John Ross. 

I really was just taking a stance on an answer for jws after his post sat there 12 hours with no response. I don't think I'd sell Henry for much less than a first, and I don't see anyone paying a first for him in this draft because of the depth in the 1st rd and at the te position in general.

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thanks for the feedback, everyone.   I was offered Henry for my 1.6 which to me, is about 2 spots too high.  I have Henry ranked at the 1.7-1.8 range.  But...my team has:

QB:  Mariota, Stafford, Smith
RB:  Hyde, Ware, Kelley, Charles, Hightower, Artis-Payne, K Taylor (taxi), J Williams (taxi)
WR: Allen, Baldwin, Landry, Marshall, R Matthews, Thielen, Sharpe, M Bryant, Boldin
TE:  Olsen, Clay, Gresham
D-K: KC, Prater
Picks: 1.6, 2.6, 3.6, 4.6

So, okay but not special.  I was thinking of using the 1.6 pick for BPA, but lean towards RB... and then the 2.6 pick for maybe a TE.  This is why I was asking about Hunter's value.

Thanks everyone

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Hunter is both a hold and an avoid. He showed enough as a rookie (8 TDs) that you probably want him on your team. But there's a lot of quality TEs in this class.

You'll probably be able to scoop a decent TE at 2.6 and Olsen to get you through this season. Used the 1.06 on BPA. Or trade it during the draft. 

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The problem is the tier break in the rookie draft right now. There is a the top 6 and then right after the 1st  tight end is going to be taken. I would probably take anyone of the top 6 players over Henry straight up, but I would take Henry over Howard pretty easily.

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6 hours ago, msudaisy26 said:

The problem is the tier break in the rookie draft right now. There is a the top 6 and then right after the 1st  tight end is going to be taken. I would probably take anyone of the top 6 players over Henry straight up, but I would take Henry over Howard pretty easily.

Landing spot could change a lot of that outlook on top6 and Howard for that matter. 

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Landing spot could change a lot of that outlook on top6 and Howard for that matter. 

Maybe he would move up a spot or 2, but there isn't anyway I would put Howard above Henry. 

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As others have said, it depends on the landing spot for many of these top TEs. Some may not end up in TE-friendly offenses, and we all know it usually takes awhile for TEs to blossom.

To me, Henry has a lot of these things going for him: showing signs of considerable potential despite being the second TE on his own team and having limited playing time behind one of the very best TEs of all time. Also in a TE friendly offense, although that could obviously change with a new coaching regime and post-Rivers.

Bottom line: it would have to be pretty strong value to trade Henry and take a shot on one of the rookies.

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I put his value at late round 1 to early round 2 so I doubt I will be acquiring him.

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As some have noted, you have to value Henry over Howard.  Which logically means that if you're about to draft Howard, it makes sense to offer that pick for Henry, although I would argue that it would cost you more to get Henry. So if you have Howard at 1.7, then it necessarily follows that Henry is worth more than the 1.7.  

I understand the argument that some wouldn't give a first for any TE because of depth or variability at the position.  But those owners also have to realize that they won't have a shot at guys like Gronk, Eifert, Kelce, Henry, Olsen, or even Howard.  So what they would pay for Henry doesn't really factor into the equation of what Henry is worth.

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I have no problem with people saying they would value Henry over any of the 2017 rookies but for me I don't see much of a difference between Henry and the top 2-4 TE in this draft class.  A lot of the excitement around Henry is generated because he managed 8 td as a rookie.  His 36 catches for 478 yards are decent but not spectacular.  My question is will this guy be a td machine or might he become more average if his td rate slides from 1 per every 4.5 where does he rank with the rookies?  From a positive standpoint Gates has always been a high TD guy in that offense.  I guess for me I don't see a huge gap between how I would rank Henry, Howard, Njoku, Everett and Engram.  A couple of them may fall down a bit depending on draft spot but I suspect 2 of the 4 rookies will be right in line with Henry and these guys will go anywhere from let's say 1.07 to 2.07 in drafts.  That is why I would rather slot Henry's value in the middle of that being very late round 1 to early round 2.

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Considering that he was a backup TE for most of the season, 36-478-8 is spectacular and, with the possible exception of TDs, I don't see any reason why his numbers don't improve.  How many guys can legitimately claim that as a floor?

As for rookies, you really think 2-4 rookies in this year's draft will match Hunter's performance?  That seems to be a bit of a stretch.  Or is it 2-4 that could match his numbers, such that 1-2 actually matching the numbers is a good result?  If the latter, I'd rather take the safe bet than burn a 1.7, 2.1, 2.3, or 2.7 on a guy who might just be Kellen Winslow but hoping that he's Henry.

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It was the latter.  I think 2 of the rookie TE can achieve what Henry did.  So my point is that let's assume I put Henry, Howard and Njoku in the same tier for the sake of this post.  Then let's say I believe Howard will go about 1.10 and Njoku about 2.03.  If I have all 3 in the same tier I would rather get Njoku at 2.03 than Henry at 1.07 due to cost.  

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On 3/21/2017 at 9:32 PM, jwsbowler said:

thanks for the feedback, everyone.   I was offered Henry for my 1.6 which to me, is about 2 spots too high.  I have Henry ranked at the 1.7-1.8 range.  But...my team has:

QB:  Mariota, Stafford, Smith
RB:  Hyde, Ware, Kelley, Charles, Hightower, Artis-Payne, K Taylor (taxi), J Williams (taxi)
WR: Allen, Baldwin, Landry, Marshall, R Matthews, Thielen, Sharpe, M Bryant, Boldin
TE:  Olsen, Clay, Gresham
D-K: KC, Prater
Picks: 1.6, 2.6, 3.6, 4.6

So, okay but not special.  I was thinking of using the 1.6 pick for BPA, but lean towards RB... and then the 2.6 pick for maybe a TE.  This is why I was asking about Hunter's value.

Thanks everyone

Stick with this

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On 3/21/2017 at 11:08 PM, msudaisy26 said:

The problem is the tier break in the rookie draft right now. There is a the top 6 and then right after the 1st  tight end is going to be taken. I would probably take anyone of the top 6 players over Henry straight up, but I would take Henry over Howard pretty easily.

This is where I'm at too.

I own Henry in a TE premium league and was offered 1.08 and a 2018 2nd for him this week and turned it down. Thought the offer was pretty close, but I prefer Henry over OJ Howard (who is going in the 1.07-1.10 range, probably 7 or 8 in TE Prem). Henry is actually a little bit younger than Howard and coming off of an 8 TD season in the NFL. OJ Howard put up 7 TDs total in 4 seasons of college football. 

If the offer is pick 1.05 or 1.06, then I'd strongly consider it. Somebody like McCaffrey, Cook, Mixon or Mike Williams could instantly have more value than Henry.

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On 3/21/2017 at 8:32 PM, jwsbowler said:

thanks for the feedback, everyone.   I was offered Henry for my 1.6 which to me, is about 2 spots too high.  I have Henry ranked at the 1.7-1.8 range.  But...my team has:

QB:  Mariota, Stafford, Smith
RB:  Hyde, Ware, Kelley, Charles, Hightower, Artis-Payne, K Taylor (taxi), J Williams (taxi)
WR: Allen, Baldwin, Landry, Marshall, R Matthews, Thielen, Sharpe, M Bryant, Boldin
TE:  Olsen, Clay, Gresham
D-K: KC, Prater
Picks: 1.6, 2.6, 3.6, 4.6

So, okay but not special.  I was thinking of using the 1.6 pick for BPA, but lean towards RB... and then the 2.6 pick for maybe a TE.  This is why I was asking about Hunter's value.

Thanks everyone

So the question is, should you move the 1.06 for HH, 

I say no, for these reasons, You might get howard at the 6, and if you really want a TE prospect thats solid, he prolly has the best shot at seeing the field early. Or, you can take BPA here, contextually for your team that would likely be an RB. Mixon, CM, Kamara, although id take howard or one of the 3 WR over kamara. There is a really good chance that Engram, possibly Njoku is there at the 2.06, and you can get a solid prospect later, and have attempted to fill a need in the first rd.

I say stand pat here.

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I think you hold all the cards in this deal. Meaning, I don't think the deal goes away if you decide to wait until the pick is on the clock before making up your mind.  That way you can decide if there is a RB or WR you like or you can just make the trade at that time for Henry.  The other owner at that time might even get more interested in offer you a bit more like an upgrade of a later pick or a slight player upgrade to close the deal.  I feel like you said that you could go in another direction at 1.06 and then wait for a TE at 2.06 or trade down a bit from 1.06 and still get a TE and another pick or pick at 1.06 and then work a move up from 2.06 to early round 2 if you are afraid the TE talent drops off.

 

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