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Limp Ditka

Project Or Die: Greg Bah Bah Bah Bird Bird Bird Ya Bird Is A Turd

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Just now, Da Gildz said:

You projected 25 hrs for him. Clearly you don't believe he's getting anywhere near 600 ab's.  That's all.  Of course anything can happen.  

But you want me to give you straight up odds on something 12 guys in all of baseball did last year? That's silly.  

OK, but your proposal doesn't allow me to receive any of the benefit when he realizes the low end of his range of ABs (<500).  I know you're smart enough to understand why your proposed bet is skewed to benefit you.

Here's the best I can do for you.  30 HRs / 500 ABs = .06 HRs/AB.  IF(G. Bird reaches 500 ABs & G. Bird >= .06 HRs / AB) {You win} Else {I win}

 

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You're assuming that because I projected him to reach less ABs than you think he will reach, that I think he's a lock to reach like 300 ABs.  That's not how projections work.  They're a mean that informs a range of outcomes.  Try to think through this and get back to me.

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:rolleyes:

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Chris Carter will out homer Greg Bird by ____ dingers this season.

Ready....... Go!

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Bird has a lot of potential, but the presence of Chris Carter is worrisome. The Yankees didn't sign him to sit around.

I had Bird and CJ Cron in the same tier and for the same reason (competition for AB's), but with Luis Valbuena gone until Memorial Day, I think Cron rises above Bird. 

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At best, Bird is a two category fantasy contributor.  At worst, he's raking in Scranton.  I wouldn't take the risk at a deep position.

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What if the Birdman Koko B. Bird hits 35 homers in 450 ABs?

Are AB's absent plate appearances?

 

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2 hours ago, Peyton Marino said:

You're assuming that because I projected him to reach less ABs than you think he will reach, that I think he's a lock to reach like 300 ABs.  That's not how projections work.  They're a mean that informs a range of outcomes.  Try to think through this and get back to me.

I understand how projections work.  Playing time is obviously factored into it.   I'm confident Bird hits 30+  over 500 abs.  Or a semi full season of games.  Somehow that turned into an AB/HR bet.  I was merely trying to protect against injury.   That's the only way I don't see Bird hitting that target.  Carter is career .217 vs RHP.  Not too worried about him.  

Edited by Da Gildz

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55 minutes ago, Eephus said:

At best, Bird is a two category fantasy contributor.  At worst, he's raking in Scranton.  I wouldn't take the risk at a deep position.

He could be a monster in those two categories and he may get a bump in OBP leagues. I know we don't want to actually talk about his merits in here but rather argue whether he'll get 450 or 550 AB'S and 25 or 31 HR's, but there was a good fangraphs article today from Jeff Sullivan looking at exit velocity from last year and factoring in the shoulder injury that basically gives him a Lucas Duda floor with upside. That's worth taking as a CI type, with legit 1B starter (top-12) upside... IMO

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Sorry I brought it up.

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32 minutes ago, Northern Voice said:

He could be a monster in those two categories and he may get a bump in OBP leagues. I know we don't want to actually talk about his merits in here but rather argue whether he'll get 450 or 550 AB'S and 25 or 31 HR's, but there was a good fangraphs article today from Jeff Sullivan looking at exit velocity from last year and factoring in the shoulder injury that basically gives him a Lucas Duda floor with upside. That's worth taking as a CI type, with legit 1B starter (top-12) upside... IMO

Good for you if you drafted early and got him at the Duda tier.  But there's no reason to reach at CI, especially for a guy with 150 MLB ABs and questions about playing time and injuries.

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8 minutes ago, Eephus said:

Good for you if you drafted early and got him at the Duda tier.  But there's no reason to reach at CI, especially for a guy with 150 MLB ABs and questions about playing time and injuries.

I haven't drafted lately, but is he now going above/within the AGon/Pujols/Hosmer/Belt/Napoli (boring as ####) tier? It seemed he was going after them but maybe with more upside (and probably downside) than any of them? Which I think factoring risk/reward, right after them is just about right.

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7 hours ago, Eephus said:

Good for you if you drafted early and got him at the Duda tier.  But there's no reason to reach at CI, especially for a guy with 150 MLB ABs and questions about playing time and injuries.

What drafts have you been doing ? Duda barely gets drafted.  Late rd flyer at best.  Bird has an NFBC adp of 242.  He was going rd 20+ up until this week.  He crept into rd 17 the other day.   Still going super late and behind all the CI's you think he's going before or around.  AGonz/belt are drafted long before Bird is.   Maybe that changes in next 10 days but he's still going pretty late.  Minimal risk. 

Edited by Da Gildz

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10 hours ago, Da Gildz said:

I understand how projections work.  Playing time is obviously factored into it.   I'm confident Bird hits 30+  over 500 abs.  Or a semi full season of games.  Somehow that turned into an AB/HR bet.  I was merely trying to protect against injury.   That's the only way I don't see Bird hitting that target.  Carter is career .217 vs RHP.  Not too worried about him.  

I don't blame you for protecting against injuries, but injuries are part of the upside of taking an under, so that hurts my side.  I think he gets to 30 HRs at around 540 ABs, so I have about a 40 AB window here where I win, which doesn't seem all that great.  My 25 HR projection was in less than 500 ABs.  I guess I'd up my number to about 28 given 500 ABs, so you can see where under 30 starts to get dicey as he starts to hit the mid 500s.  I still think he goes under 30, I just think a lot of the time he does it he doesn't reach 500 ABs, and I don't win anything in those scenarios.  Can we drop the AB requirement a bit?

Edited by Peyton Marino
sorry to ditka for torpedoing his thread

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16 hours ago, Da Gildz said:

500 ab's/30 HR's.  

to be fair, this sounds like you're saying he'll hit 30 in 500 ABs :shrug:

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3 minutes ago, Peyton Marino said:

to be fair, this sounds like you're saying he'll hit 30 in 500 ABs :shrug:

Not a gildz follower but I thought it was pretty obvious what he meant.

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3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Not a gildz follower but I thought it was pretty obvious what he meant.

that's fair, I definitely misinterpreted to favor my side

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Bird is most definitely not the word

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On 3/22/2017 at 8:32 PM, Da Gildz said:

 

Lol clueless.  Lefty power with that short porch.  He's a lock for 30+ with 500+ ab's. 

 

update?

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2 minutes ago, Peyton Marino said:

update?

porch is still short

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obvious response is "durr well you didn't take the bet so you have no room to talk durr"

he's on pace for roughly 413 ABs right now so my reasoning for passing on the bet looks pretty solid

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On 3/23/2017 at 8:26 PM, Eephus said:

At best, Bird is a two category fantasy contributor.  At worst, he's raking in Scranton.  I wouldn't take the risk at a deep position.

The old man tried to warn you guys. He's seen his share of Greg Birds in his day.

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16 minutes ago, RnR said:

The old man tried to warn you guys. He's seen his share of Greg Birds in his day.

Eephus owns a Mike Ivie jersey. 

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On April 28, 2017 at 6:51 PM, Peyton Marino said:

obvious response is "durr well you didn't take the bet so you have no room to talk durr"

he's on pace for roughly 413 ABs right now so my reasoning for passing on the bet looks pretty solid

Haha reasoning he says.  You're a weak soul.   That was your reasoning.  

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On April 29, 2017 at 1:32 PM, RnR said:

The old man tried to warn you guys. He's seen his share of Greg Birds in his day.

 

Well 1/2 right I suppose.  There was no risk with Bird going in rd 20+.  And last I checked it's May 1.  Still some baseball left before writing him off.  The .202 Mark Trumbo with his 2 hrs says hello.  

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1 hour ago, Da Gildz said:

 

Well 1/2 right I suppose.  There was no risk with Bird going in rd 20+.  And last I checked it's May 1.  Still some baseball left before writing him off.  The .202 Mark Trumbo with his 2 hrs says hello.  

lmfaooooooo you called him a lock for 30+ hrs. sit tf down.

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16 minutes ago, Peyton Marino said:

lmfaooooooo you called him a lock for 30+ hrs. sit tf down.

 

I did.  And was willing to put $ behind that claim.  You were not.  Again, it is 1 month.   He did hit 11 hrs in 46 games last year.  Whatever.  You're happy about a bet you would have likely won but were too scared to make.  Good job. 

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THERE HE IS!

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15 minutes ago, Da Gildz said:

 

I did.  And was willing to put $ behind that claim.  You were not.  Again, it is 1 month.   He did hit 11 hrs in 46 games last year.  Whatever.  You're happy about a bet you would have likely won but were too scared to make.  Good job. 

You are so stupid it hurts. I would not have won the bet because he's not going to get the ABs. The bet you presented is essentially a free roll for you. I tried to get you to change the terms and you refused. So, here we are.

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On March 23, 2017 at 7:32 PM, Peyton Marino said:

yea, no.  I'm not setting myself up for some situation where he ends up starting every day and getting 600 ABs.  you get all of the upside and none of the downside in your proposed scenario.

You're such a dunce.  Right here you said there was a possibility he would play everyday and get 600 ab's.  And you didn't want to chance that.  Now it's "I couldn't win because there wasnt any way he'll get 500+!"  Cry me a river.  You're weak.  Wah.   

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You passed on a bet you were going to win outright by the early looks of it or push at worst.  So stop spinning it into this "I couldn't win wah wahhh" argument.  

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And man look how fast u come running into this thread. Haha  Do something productive instead of arguing all day long on a fantasy forum.  

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3 minutes ago, Da Gildz said:

You're such a dunce.  Right here you said there was a possibility he would play everyday and get 600 ab's.  And you didn't want to chance that.  Now it's "I couldn't win because there wasnt any way he'll get 500+!"  Cry me a river.  You're weak.  Wah.   

Truly incredible how you can't grasp this.

1. If he's playing well he will get 500 ABs and likely go over 30 hr

2. If he sucks he won't get the ABs and I push

3. Very small % of the time he sucks and still gets enough ABs for me to win

I'm done explaining this to you. Keep using the word lock tho.

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1 minute ago, Peyton Marino said:

Truly incredible how you can't grasp this.

1. If he's playing well he will get 500 ABs and likely go over 30 hr

2. If he sucks he won't get the ABs and I push

3. Very small % of the time he sucks and still gets enough ABs for me to win

I'm done explaining this to you. Keep using the word lock tho.

You conveniently left out a 500/30 ratio at 16.67 would have been 12th best in all of baseball last year for anyone > 30 hrs.  Stop acting like that's an easy feat. It isn't.  To assume he has 30 hrs once he reaches 500+ is asinine.  But you're an a.ss so I get why you only present your side of it. 

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So of the 32 guys who went 30+ last yr, 20 of them (63%) had a higher hr/ab ratio then that of 16.67.  Yet according to you its all but a given Bird would have met that ratio.  Keep slanting and dodging.  You turned down a good bet.  Now good day. 

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Quote

 

Yankees placed 1B Greg Bird on the 10-day disabled list with a bruised right ankle.

A recent 6-for-60 stretch has dropped Bird's season average to an even .100. Bird dealt with ankle issues earlier this year and obviously wasn't 100 percent when he came back. Utility man Rob Refsnyder was called up from Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre in the corresponding roster move.

 

 
:mellow:

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32 minutes ago, Limp Ditka said:

 

 
:mellow:

:lmao: 

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On 5/1/2017 at 1:16 PM, Da Gildz said:

You conveniently left out a 500/30 ratio at 16.67 would have been 12th best in all of baseball last year for anyone > 30 hrs.   

oh my ####, you are the one who called him a lock for 30 HRs with 500 ABs, not me. and guess what buddy, at this rate he ain't getting 30 HRs with 800 ABs so ####, take your medicine, and stop using the word lock in any context. This would all be avoided if you didn't come into every thread like a rude abrasive know it all who can see into the future.

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48 minutes ago, Limp Ditka said:

 

 
:mellow:

Durrrr but Yankee stadium is good for left handers durrrr

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