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Project Or Die: Greg Bah Bah Bah Bird Bird Bird Ya Bird Is A Turd (1 Viewer)

Limp Ditka

Footballguy
After a lost 2016, he's having a monster Spring

Was just named starting 1B for the NYY.

I imagine that he'll still lose some ABs v tough lefties to a combo of Holiday / Chris Carter.

High K rate, but big time power. I'm foreseeing something around

.250 / .330 / .530 

32 / 95 / 85

 
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I don't understand why Cashman doesn't think he has 30 HR power. I know he never exhibited it in the minors but he hit 11 HRs in limited at-bats in his 2015 call-up and hitting a bunch of HRs in spring plus hes a lefty in Yankee Stadium.

 
I think he'll lose PAs against LHP which will help his AVG but hurt his counting stats.

.255/.330/.480   23 HR, 60 R, 70 RBI in around 500 PAs

 
The guy fails to crack 25 HRs in 540 PAs spread across AA, AAA, and MLB in his last full season, has never eclipsed that number previously, coming back from a season ending shoulder injury, and you think he's a lock for 30+ HRs.  You are so stupid it is just painful.

 
The guy fails to crack 25 HRs in 540 PAs spread across AA, AAA, and MLB in his last full season, has never eclipsed that number previously, coming back from a season ending shoulder injury, and you think he's a lock for 30+ HRs.  You are so stupid it is just painful.
Ok so let's do this then. If he doesn't hit 30+ in 500+ ab's I'll never post in this forum again.  BUT if he does hit 30+ in 500+ ab's , you can't post for 6 months.  I wouldn't ask to u to leave permanently since this forum plays such a big role in your day to day life.   

Accept it or make the lame excuse not to.  

Waiting for the latter.  

 
Ok so let's do this then. If he doesn't hit 30+ in 500+ ab's I'll never post in this forum again.  BUT if he does hit 30+ in 500+ ab's , you can't post for 6 months.  I wouldn't ask to u to leave permanently since this forum plays such a big role in your day to day life.   

Accept it or make the lame excuse not to.  

Waiting for the latter.  
You are a moron.  I just projected him for 25 HRs this year.  Do you not understand that given a mean projection of 25 HRs, there's a solid chance he does hit 30 HRs?  The question is not whether he will hit 30 HRs, it's what the right projection is.  Here's a better bet, which I will gladly accept - why don't you tweet to all the baseball writers you normally ask to rate your horrendous teams, and ask them how many HRs they would project Bird for given 500 ABs.  Get a sample of 15 non-mouthbreathers (limit 5 total from ESPN, Yahoo, CBS) to reply and see what they say.  Take the average.  If it's 30 or more you win and I leave for 6 months, if it's 30 or less you admit that you literally have the IQ of a monkey.

 
Peyton u weakling.  I'm giving you 1 month vs my full time exit.  Man up for your fellow forum cronies will ya?

 
500 ab's/30 HR's.  

Of the 32 players who hit 30+, only 12 had a better ab/hr ratio. And tater tot Marino bows out from making this bet. 

You don't even know a good bet when u see one.   Too bad.  

 
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Been stiffed here before by some corncob I didn't know, as shady alluded to.  Don't really care to place anymore bets unless I'm sure the guy is good for it (which you're certainly not).  Also I do not give a single #### whether or not you keep posting here, actually I prefer you do.  Why don't you just come in here and gloat about it if you win?  Seems like the same payout for you.  Or, if you'd like, we pick a trustworthy poster here and escrow $100 each before the season starts.

 
500 ab's/30+ Hr's? Anything less then 500 ab's and its void.  

Yes I'll do this.  $100 is fine.  Set it up.  

I won't make u leave for a month either. 

 
500 ab's/30+ Hr's? Anything less then 500 ab's and its void.  

Yes I'll do this.  $100 is fine.  Set it up.  

I won't make u leave for a month either. 
Sounds good.  So, when he reaches 500 ABs this season, if he doesn't have 30 or more HRs I win? Or did you have something else in mind?

 
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No.  He needs 30+ hrs in 500+ AB's.   End of year.  Not 30+ hrs by the time he reaches 500 ab's.  Nice try. 
yea, no.  I'm not setting myself up for some situation where he ends up starting every day and getting 600 ABs.  you get all of the upside and none of the downside in your proposed scenario.

 
You projected 25 hrs for him. Clearly you don't believe he's getting anywhere near 600 ab's.  That's all.  Of course anything can happen.  

But you want me to give you straight up odds on something 12 guys in all of baseball did last year? (30+, < 16.67 ab/hr).  That's silly.  

 
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You projected 25 hrs for him. Clearly you don't believe he's getting anywhere near 600 ab's.  That's all.  Of course anything can happen.  

But you want me to give you straight up odds on something 12 guys in all of baseball did last year? That's silly.  
OK, but your proposal doesn't allow me to receive any of the benefit when he realizes the low end of his range of ABs (<500).  I know you're smart enough to understand why your proposed bet is skewed to benefit you.

Here's the best I can do for you.  30 HRs / 500 ABs = .06 HRs/AB.  IF(G. Bird reaches 500 ABs & G. Bird >= .06 HRs / AB) {You win} Else {I win}

 
You're assuming that because I projected him to reach less ABs than you think he will reach, that I think he's a lock to reach like 300 ABs.  That's not how projections work.  They're a mean that informs a range of outcomes.  Try to think through this and get back to me.

 
Chris Carter will out homer Greg Bird by ____ dingers this season.

Ready....... Go!

 
Bird has a lot of potential, but the presence of Chris Carter is worrisome. The Yankees didn't sign him to sit around.

I had Bird and CJ Cron in the same tier and for the same reason (competition for AB's), but with Luis Valbuena gone until Memorial Day, I think Cron rises above Bird. 

 
At best, Bird is a two category fantasy contributor.  At worst, he's raking in Scranton.  I wouldn't take the risk at a deep position.

 
You're assuming that because I projected him to reach less ABs than you think he will reach, that I think he's a lock to reach like 300 ABs.  That's not how projections work.  They're a mean that informs a range of outcomes.  Try to think through this and get back to me.
I understand how projections work.  Playing time is obviously factored into it.   I'm confident Bird hits 30+  over 500 abs.  Or a semi full season of games.  Somehow that turned into an AB/HR bet.  I was merely trying to protect against injury.   That's the only way I don't see Bird hitting that target.  Carter is career .217 vs RHP.  Not too worried about him.  

 
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At best, Bird is a two category fantasy contributor.  At worst, he's raking in Scranton.  I wouldn't take the risk at a deep position.
He could be a monster in those two categories and he may get a bump in OBP leagues. I know we don't want to actually talk about his merits in here but rather argue whether he'll get 450 or 550 AB'S and 25 or 31 HR's, but there was a good fangraphs article today from Jeff Sullivan looking at exit velocity from last year and factoring in the shoulder injury that basically gives him a Lucas Duda floor with upside. That's worth taking as a CI type, with legit 1B starter (top-12) upside... IMO

 

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