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Brisco54

POLL CLOSED Player #41 Community Dynasty Rankings

WHO IS THE 41ST RANKED DYNASTY ASSET?   

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Lamar Miller wins the fourth pick of the fourth round, 40th overall with 17 of 48 votes (called after 26 hours and because Miller had an eleven vote lead).  Every other option received votes.    That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754796-player-40-community-dynasty-rankings/

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

Kelvin Benjamin was added using the other button.  I still have two outstanding nominations for Tevin Coleman to be added next round.  

Time to pick #41

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5

4.3 Stefon Diggs

4.4 Lamar Miller

Edited by Brisco54

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Some analysis of the top 40 players selected.

WRs continue to dominate with almost half of all selections (19 of 40).

RBs are second with 11 of 40

Rookie Picks nabbed 5 slots, TEs have 3 and QBs have 2.

Because the settings are for three WR to start vice 2 RBs and only one TE or QB, in makes sense that they should have more, but they should only 50% more than RBs and 200% more than TE and QBs.  Instead they are 70% more than RB and 550% of TE and 850% of QB.

Youth rules with 26 of the 40 selections having 3 or less years of NFL experience.

26 of 32 NFL teams have had a player selected.  The six that have not been selected so far are:  DET, CAR, SEA, NYJ, BAL, & CLE... three from each conference.  Three of those have players currently on the list for possible selection (SEA x 2, CLE & CAR) but we have yet to hear a whisper of a Lion, Jet or Raven in the rankings.  Of those six teams wihtout players selected, only two made the playoffs in 2016 (DET & SEA)

9 of 32 teams have had two players selected, but none have had three.  The nine are DAL, PIT, ATL, HOU, IND, NE, SD, GB, and MIA. (NO used to have two but Cooks is now with NE.  CHI lost its second (Jeffrey) to PHI.  Cooks and Jeffrey are the only players in the top 40 that have switched tams during the off-season.

Of the 9 with 2 selected,  six were RB & WR (DAL, PIT, ATL, HOU, MIA), two were QB & WR (IND & GB), and one was TE & WR (NE).  Of those nine, seven were playoff teams in 2016 with the other two being IND and SD.

My guess is that the Jets might be the last team to have a player selected, but I am not sure.

WR lead will continue for a while.  6 of the 10 players currently on the list are WR, compared to 2 RB, 1 QB and 0 TE (and one rookie pick).  I think it might be a while before another TE is selected... there appears to be a significant drop off after the top three in market value.

I think we are hitting the stage of the polls where everyone is unsure... we can all identify  players in the current poll that we would never have this high, but for the rest, we can talk ourselves into, or out of any selection.

 

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I'm pretty sure Jordy Nelson has been an option since early second round...

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Looking at the preseason dynasty rankings from last off-season and comparing them to our results, I think my nominee for "How the Mighty Have Fallen" award goes to Cam Newton.  Prior to last season, he was a debatable 1st/2d turn pick.. now he looks like the soonest he will show is the 5th round.

My nominee for the "Came Out of No Where" is probably Michael Thomas... who went from a 5th round pick (guessing that's where 1.7/1.8 go) to a middle of the 2d round player (#17 overall)..

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2 minutes ago, Brisco54 said:

Looking at the preseason dynasty rankings from last off-season and comparing them to our results, I think my nominee for "How the Mighty Have Fallen" award goes to Cam Newton.  Prior to last season, he was a debatable 1st/2d turn pick.. now he looks like the soonest he will show is the 5th round.

My nominee for the "Came Out of No Where" is probably Michael Thomas... who went from a 5th round pick (guessing that's where 1.7/1.8 go) to a middle of the 2d round player (#17 overall)..

I would also put Marshall on the "How the mighty have fallen" list. Was probably a 3rd or 4th round pick last season and likely will go in drafted entirely, at best maybe he goes in the final 2 rounds. 

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5 minutes ago, thatguy said:

I'm pretty sure Jordy Nelson has been an option since early second round...

More middle second... he was added in the poll for player #19.

The second longest tenure on the list is Doug Baldwin, who was added for Player poll #27

Corey Coleman was added to poll #29, McCoy at #33, Moncrief at #34, Wilson at #36, Hill & Ingram at #39 and Benjamin at #40.

Nelson is definitely the outlier in terms of time on the list.  I think that reflects the huge variance on how owners view him; same with Baldwin... Kelce was also on for a while but not near that long, I think.

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Not sure who I would add but some names that come to mind are C.J. Anderson, Spencer Ware, Latavius Murray, Tevin Coleman, Abdullah, Yeldon, Perkins, Terrell Pryor, Crabtree, Tyrell Williams, Edelman, Devante Parker, Rishard Matthews, Kevin White, Randall Cobb, Tyler Lockett, John Brown, Golden Tate, Emanuel Sanders, Josh Doctson, Hunter Henry, Tyler Eifert, Eric Ebron, Zach Ertz, Matt Ryan,  Winston, Carr, Mariota, Dak... I'm sure there are many I'm missing but off of the top of my head those are some of the names that come to mind. And honestly, I have no idea how I would sort that bunch out. 

Edited by thatguy

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Here are the selections with the poll where they were added in parenthesis.  Orig means they were on the original list.

1.1.  Odell Beckham NYG (Orig)

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot DAL (Orig)

1.3.  Mike Evans TB (Orig)

1.4.  David Johnson AZ (Orig)

1.5.  LeVeon Bell PIT (Orig)

1.6.  Antonio Brown PIT (Orig)

1.7.  Julio Jones ATL (#2)

1.8.  Amari Cooper Oak (#2)

1.9.  AJ Green Cin (#2)

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins Hou (#7)

        & Rookie Pick 1.1 (#7)

1.12.  Todd Gurley STL (Orig)

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2 (#12)

2.2 Allen Robinson JAX (#12)

2.3  Sammy Watkins Buf (#8)

2.4 TY Hilton IND (#2)

2.5 Michael Thomas NO (#9)

2.6 Rob Gronkowski NE (#13)

2.7 Dez Bryant Dal (#7)

2.8 Devonta Freeman ATL (#5)

2.9  Brandin Cooks NE (#7)

2.10 Jordan Howard CHI (#21)

2.11 Melvin Gordon SD (#7)

2.12 Keenan Allen SD (#10)

3.1 Andrew Luck IND (#16)

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey PHI (#17)

3.3 Aaron Rodgers GB (#21)

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3 (#16)

3.5 Jarvis Landry MIA (#13)

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4 (#29)

3.7 Travis Kelce KC (#20)

3.8 Jay Ajayi MIA (#25)

3.9 Carlos Hyde SF (#24)

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams GB (#28)

                Jordan Reed WASH (#19)

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas DEN (#24)

               Derrick Henry TENN (#23)

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5 (#31)

4.3 Stefon Diggs MINN (#31)

4.4 Lamar Miller Hou (#34)

 

Current Choices)

Jordy Nelson – (#19)

Doug Baldwin (#27)

Corey Coleman (#29)

LeSean McCoy (#33)

Donte Moncrief (#34)

Russell Wilson (#36)

Tyreek Hill (#39)

Mark Ingram (#39)

Kelvin Benjamin (#40)

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Brisco54 said:

Some analysis of the top 40 players selected.

WRs continue to dominate with almost half of all selections (19 of 40).

RBs are second with 11 of 40

Rookie Picks nabbed 5 slots, TEs have 3 and QBs have 2.

Because the settings are for three WR to start vice 2 RBs and only one TE or QB, in makes sense that they should have more, but they should only 50% more than RBs and 200% more than TE and QBs.  Instead they are 70% more than RB and 550% of TE and 850% of QB.

Youth rules with 26 of the 40 selections having 3 or less years of NFL experience.

26 of 32 NFL teams have had a player selected.  The six that have not been selected so far are:  DET, CAR, SEA, NYJ, BAL, & CLE... three from each conference.  Three of those have players currently on the list for possible selection (SEA x 2, CLE & CAR) but we have yet to hear a whisper of a Lion, Jet or Raven in the rankings.  Of those six teams wihtout players selected, only two made the playoffs in 2016 (DET & SEA)

9 of 32 teams have had two players selected, but none have had three.  The nine are DAL, PIT, ATL, HOU, IND, NE, SD, GB, and MIA. (NO used to have two but Cooks is now with NE.  CHI lost its second (Jeffrey) to PHI.  Cooks and Jeffrey are the only players in the top 40 that have switched tams during the off-season.

Of the 9 with 2 selected,  six were RB & WR (DAL, PIT, ATL, HOU, MIA), two were QB & WR (IND & GB), and one was TE & WR (NE).  Of those nine, seven were playoff teams in 2016 with the other two being IND and SD.

My guess is that the Jets might be the last team to have a player selected, but I am not sure.

WR lead will continue for a while.  6 of the 10 players currently on the list are WR, compared to 2 RB, 1 QB and 0 TE (and one rookie pick).  I think it might be a while before another TE is selected... there appears to be a significant drop off after the top three in market value.

I think we are hitting the stage of the polls where everyone is unsure... we can all identify  players in the current poll that we would never have this high, but for the rest, we can talk ourselves into, or out of any selection.

 

The bold is more true in redraft. In dynasty the longevity of receivers vs RB is significant.  

27 minutes ago, thatguy said:

Not sure who I would add but some names that come to mind are C.J. Anderson, Spencer Ware, Latavius Murray, Tevin Coleman, Abdullah, Yeldon, Perkins, Terrell Pryor, Crabtree, Tyrell Williams, Edelman, Devante Parker, Kevin White, Randall Cobb, Tyler Lockett, John Brown, Golden Tate, Emanuel Sanders, Josh Doctson, Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Matt Ryan, Russ Wilson, Winston, Carr, Mariota, Dak... I'm sure there are many I'm missing but off of the top of my head those are some of the names that come to mind. And honestly, I have no idea how I would sort that bunch out. 

Just comes down to personal preference. I'd take Crabtree, Mariota, Tevin, and Henry but objectively there's no real separation. 

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I know Brisco wants people to nominate players to added to the next poll. As a suggestion here is Mike Clays top 200 for dynasty. You could just add the next names off of this list as another way to add players to the poll.

Jordy Nelson is the highest ranked player remaining from Clays list. Then Moncrief and DeVantae Parker. Mark Ingram looks like the highest RB remaining from his list. then CJ Anderson and Lesean McCoy. Russel Wilson and Matt Ryan the next two QB on his list, The highest TE remaining was Eifert at 65 then Ebron and Erts follow soon after at 71 and 72.

Tyreek Hill incidentally is ranked 74th overall by Clay, which seems similar to our recent discussion regarding him in these threads.

I voted for Doug Baldwin here. I did decide to move Diggs ahead of Baldwin during the process of these polls. I have a few more players from this same tier who have not been added yet.

Golden Tate, Juiian Edelman and Michael Crabtree would be players I nominate to be added to the next poll.

 

Edited by Biabreakable

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Of the 40 players/pick selected, players participated in an average of 7.65 polls before being selected.

Players that spent a long time on the polls (reflecting a wide variance on their value) are:

16 polls - Jarvis Landry

15 - Freeman & Reed

14 - Hilton, Cooks, & Allen

13 - Henry

12 - DT, rookie pick 1.3, Dez, 

11 - Kelce, Gurley

 

Players with very little time between nomination and selection ( reflecting a more agreed upon, settled market value) are:

0 polls - ODB

1 - Elliott, 1.2, Howard, 1.4, 

2 - Evans, ARob, 

3 - DJ, DHOP, 1.1

4 - Bell

5 - Brown, Julio, Gronk, 

6 - Cooper, Rodgers, Adams, & Miller

 

 

Edited by Brisco54

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14 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I know Brisco wants people to nominate players to added to the next poll. As a suggestion here is Mike Clays top 200 for dynasty. You could just add the next names off of this list as another way to add players to the poll.

Jordy Nelson is the highest ranked player remaining from Clays list. Then Moncrief and DeVantae Parker. Mark Ingram looks like the highest RB remaining from his list. then CJ Anderson and Lesean McCoy. Russel Wilson and Matt Ryan the next two QB on his list, The highest TE remaining was Eifert at 65 then Ebron and Erts follow soon after at 71 and 72.

Tyreek Hill incidentally is ranked 74th overall by Clay, which seems similar to our recent discussion regarding him in these threads.

I voted for Doug Baldwin here. I did decide to move Diggs ahead of Baldwin during the process of these polls. I have a few more players from this same tier who have not been added yet.

Golden Tate, Juiian Edelman and Michael Crabtree would be players I nominate to be added to the next poll.

 

:shrug:  Jeff Hasseley has him at 37. He's clearly controversial. That said, feel free to take him off as he won't become a front runner for a couple rounds at least.

Edited by -OZ-

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7 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

:shrug:  Jeff Hasseley has him at 37. He's clearly controversial. That said, feel free to take him off as he won't become a front runner for a couple rounds at least.

I don't have a strong opinion either way and I am not saying to take Hill off the list of options. Just noting that Clay has him lower than this, nothing more. That is why I said incidentally.

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16 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

:shrug:  Jeff Hasseley has him at 37. He's clearly controversial.

Agreed.  Of the WR dynasty rankings he ranges from 19 to 25 to 47 to 59... that's a 40 slot variance from high to low... and no consensus whatsoever.

Others with an even larger variance, Tyrell Williams (48 variance (27,28,50,75)) & Rishard Matthews (51 variance... Matthews must be dating Jeff T's ex since the other three have him at 30, 35 & 36, but Jeff has him at 81)

Edited by Brisco54
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As much as I hate trying to speculate on what the Patriots might do, I think Julian Edelman should likely drop a tier on my list. That is if Brandin Cooks is going to take a lot of his opportunities and if Edelman is not re-signed by the Patriots, that would not be good for Edelman's value with a new team at 32 years old (2018).

Tate and Crabtree are a bit older WR as well, but less risk of their roles changing in the near future than Edelman.

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Went Coleman. I vote for Michael Crabtree to be added for the next round.

Edited by jtd13

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21 minutes ago, garlicduck said:

I think Terrelle Pryor should be added also.

X2

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6 hours ago, thatguy said:

I'm pretty sure Jordy Nelson has been an option since early second round...

And I'll vote for him for the ~20th time...

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1 hour ago, jabarony said:

And I'll vote for him for the ~20th time...

I voted Coleman but early/mid-4th round is more like it for Nelson imo, as I stated in an older thread when folks were making arguments for Nelson in the 2nd round. 

If I'm in a start up dynasty draft and feel REALLY good about my 1st 3 picks and my chances to Win Now, then I might go Nelson here. 

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