POLL CLOSED Player #42 Community Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Corey Coleman wins the fifth pick of the fourth round, 41st overall with 15 of 54 votes. Every other option received at least one vote.    That poll/thread can be viewed here: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754815-player-41-community-dynasty-rankings/

HOW TO ADD PLAYERS TO THE LIST

First, you can add a name to the current poll by clicking Other and telling me who you think is better than all players on the current list.  (Please tell me that you clicked the other button in the reply... not just the name of your nominee)

Second, in rounds where no one has clicked the other button to add a player, I will add a single player nominated in the comments.  This will be the player with the most support to be added in the comments (total users nominating that player)... in the event of a tie, it will go to the player first nominated in the comments.

I have the following outstanding nominations:

Tevin Coleman - 2

Terrell Pryor - 2

Michael Crabtree - 1.5 (Biabreakable nominated 2 so I split his vote in half)

Hunter Henry - 1

Tyler Eifert - 1

Golden Tate - .5

As a result I am adding both Tevin Coleman and Terrell Pryor.  Don't forget that you can always force me to add a player by clicking "other."

Time to pick #42

Standings

1.1.  Odell Beckham

1.2.  Ezekiel Elliot

1.3.  Mike Evans

1.4.  David Johnson

1.5.  LeVeon Bell

1.6.  Antonio Brown

1.7.  Julio Jones

1.8.  Amari Cooper

1.9.  AJ Green

1.10.  (Tie) Deandre Hopkins

        & Rookie Pick 1.1

1.12.  Todd Gurley

Round 2

2.1 Rookie Pick 1.2

2.2 Allen Robinson

2.3  Sammy Watkins

2.4 TY Hilton

2.5 Michael Thomas

2.6 Rob Gronkowski

2.7 Dez Bryant

2.8 Devonta Freeman

2.9  Brandin Cooks

2.10 Jordan Howard

2.11 Melvin Gordon

2.12 Keenan Allen

3.1 Andrew Luck

3.2 Alshon Jeffrey

3.3 Aaron Rodgers

3.4 Rookie Pick 1.3

3.5 Jarvis Landry

3.6 Rookie Pick 1.4

3.7 Travis Kelce

3.8 Jay Ajayi

3.9 Carlos Hyde

3.10 (Tie) Davante Adams

                Jordan Reed

3.12 (tie) Demaryius Thomas

               Derrick Henry

4.2  Rookie Pick 1.5

4.3 Stefon Diggs

4.4 Lamar Miller

4.5 Corey Coleman

Ways to use these Polls:

1.  Recalibrate your own view of players.  Sometimes we fall in love with a guy, or a guy burns us a lot to the point we lose our objectivity.  

2.  Evaluate whether a trade is balanced.  I prefer to only make offers that are either balanced or favor the other side.  I do not mind when folks say I got screwed at the time of the trade... what I hate is when folks say I screwed the other side (until months later, that is,).  This protects against that.

3.  Identify trade targets and trade bait.  The ideal trade situation is to trade something you think the other owner over values for something you think they undervalue.

4.  Identify those players with the most market volatility.  I think the data I sent out in last poll will be very useful to me.  Using Jordy Nelson as an example, there are owners out there that value Nelson as a top 20 pick overall (he was added by the other button to poll 19), while the market does not put him in the top 41 (so far).  I prefer to trust the judgement of the masses to determine trade value, so if I owned Nelson, I would be looking to find that owner or owners that rank him that high.  Yeah, i get that Nelson might be a great win now player, but if you think about it, there are owners out there that will trade me Dez Bryant for Nelson straight up (Dez went 19th).  They might even throw something in with Freeman, Cooks, Howard, Gordon, Allen or Luck to get Nelson. (ore even more with all the players ranked lower).

5.  Advocacy.  You can choose to cut and paste the results and send them to the person you plan to trade with.  Still using Nelson as an example... if you are that owner that thinks nelson belongs in the top twenty, you show the other owner that the market values him at less than rookie pick 1.6 (if current voting trends hold) as opposed to the 1.3 plus a 2d he is probably asking for.  

Thoughts?

I think you make good points about what a poll such as this could be used for.

Your number one item is what I get the most benefit from. I can create rankings based on a lot of different methods. None of those rankings are formed from the process of looking at each draft pick and what the other options are and trying to choose the best player for fantasy. These polls present those choices, and that is perhaps more similar to the choices you make during a start up draft than already established league.

An example of how the polls help me was in the previous poll in my own rankings I had Baldwin, Tate and Edelman in the same tier do to recent performance by these players more than anything else. I also made the list in January prior to the Saints trading them Brandin Cooks. But once I considered Edelman's age and the Patriots trading for Brandin Cooks I realized that Edelman does not belong in the same tier as Tate and Baldwin anymore.

It is looking at each pick in minutia that furthers this process in a way that doing a full ranking list in one go does not. At least for me.

eta - Ranking everyone at once = Forest. Ranking one guy at a time = trees.

Brisco54 said:

3.  Identify trade targets and trade bait.  The ideal trade situation is to trade something you think the other owner over values for something you think they undervalue.

Click to expand...

Trading is the only reason I ever look up dynasty rankings. Helps put together equitable trade offers, helps me see when I have a player the consensus values more than I do and helps me understand when there is a player I value a lot more than the consensus. 

I've actually put that in practice using this thread, have some trades based on information I gleaned from this ranking and rejected some.

I would say specifically on these rankings I picked up that I'm way higher on rookie draft picks, especially the 3-6 range than consensus and I'm way lower on older players. I kind of knew this already but got it confirmed.

We had FA in the middle of this so changes should be expected but most of these players were untouched so to speak. Cooks trade impacted two and I don't think Alshon had signed with Eagles when he got voted? I might be wrong on that.  But I'd certainly be interested in doing one of these post NFL draft. I think it would be at least a little interesting to see how FA and a draft can alter values when no football is actually being played.

The Art of the Trade

Ok... I am in full work avoidance mode, so i thought I would start posting one of the advocacy axioms I have gleaned from watching fantasy football trades over the last couple decades.  I am a retired trial lawyer who has studied advocacy for over 27 years and now I teach it, so maybe I have a different view on things that you might find useful.

I will call this first one "The Osweiler Factor" because it deals with acquiring someone else's trash.

Except for the one roster in your league that is beyond stacked (hopefully that is you), every owner has that one player they plan to drop for their next draft pick or waiver wire move.  They have basically already made the decision that the player has no trade value.  That is the player you ask about to start trade negotiations.  

Consider this scenario (just go with it on the stated player values)

You want Hunter Henry from the guy that owns both Kelce & Henry.  He needs a young WR and you have Perriman to trade as well as pick 2.10 but you know there is no way that the other owner would accept an offer of Perriman plus 2.10 for Henry.  Let's also say you have Devonta Freeman on your roster.  The guy with Henry also has Tim Hightower and it gets announced that Hightower signs with Atlanta basically giving him no current dynasty value.  

You contact the Henry owner asking about Hightower.  He will see that you have Freeman and presume you are looking for a backup.  He will shoot for the moon and ask for 2.10 expecting you to counter.    Owners will be so tempted by the idea of getting something for nothing that they will become the aggressors in pushing the trade rather than you... they become the ones that keep sweetening the deal in order to convince you.  Meanwhile, you quietly expand the deal to include the player you really want.  "Well, I do think I need Hightower, but I was planning on using 2.10 to acquire a TE prospect. What do I need to add to get Kelce as well?"  He will ask for someone like Landry or Adams based on our current market values.  You tell him you really love that player but counter with Perriman but tell him that you expect him to reject the offer.  He will reject ... and you will say drat and walk away.... but the temptation is too strong... he hates the idea that once he picks at 1.3 and drops Hightower, you are going to be able to add him for free off the waiver wire.

After one more offer and counter, the final deal will be Hightower plus Henry for 2.10 + Perriman + the player you planned to drop on your next draft pick.  

I have about a 1 in 3 success rate using this negotiation tactic.

I went rookie 1.06.  I'd take McCaffrey or Mixon (maybe even Kamara) over the RBs available.

trade targets and trade bait? Like KRob for C Patterson and a 4th round rookie pick? 

couldn't help myself

menobrown said:

We had FA in the middle of this so changes should be expected but most of these players were untouched so to speak. Cooks trade impacted two and I don't think Alshon had signed with Eagles when he got voted? I might be wrong on that.  But I'd certainly be interested in doing one of these post NFL draft. I think it would be at least a little interesting to see how FA and a draft can alter values when no football is actually being played.

Click to expand...

I think this is a good idea. At the same time I would like to see this poll go as far as it can. It would be nice to get to the 100th ranked player for example, however the pace of the polls is such that even with one poll being finished in a day (often they take longer than that) we need another two months for 60 more players which would be at around 100. If Brisco can keep these going that long, we likely won't get that far prior to the NFL draft, which may change things more than free agency has.

A post NFL draft poll would make sense, but this one still likely needs more time to get to 100.

It is up to Brisco how far he wants to continue with this one. I hope for quite some time. Someone else could run these other polls (such as post NFL draft poll) and if Brisco wants to continue with these polls past the NFL draft, then we could get a deeper list.

I just want to say thanks to Brisco for doing these. I think it provides some good information for a lot of people. I hope these polls continue for awhile. I would love to have a list as deep as 200 or more using these methods, but realistically a top 100 would likely be further than a poll has gone before in these forums. The rookie polls usually do not go much further than a top 30 or so if they go that far.

@Brisco54 - agree with your post.  The primary purpose I'm using these for are to identify trade targets.  For example, Tyreek Hill or hunter Henry.  It also helps see which players on my team I value a lot more than the consensus, to make better offers if I still want to trade the player - for example I might want to trade McCoy even if I think he's worth more than gordon, hyde or the 1.04. I might still look to sell but it's with the understanding that others don't value him as high. 

Dr. Brew said:

trade targets and trade bait? Like KRob for C Patterson and a 4th round rookie pick? 

couldn't help myself

Click to expand...

Trading long-retired players is also a great way to make the "worst trade offers ever" thread.

Usually it's Antonio Bryant's name bandied about, but I think Koren Robinson qualifies too...

Arodin said:

Trading long-retired players is also a great way to make the "worst trade offers ever" thread.

Usually it's Antonio Bryant's name bandied about, but I think Koren Robinson qualifies too...

Click to expand...

 Been a long week for me

Ok... now I get it.... I have been feeling like an idiot for the last two hours (more than usual that is).....

I was racking my brain for a memory that would justify the KRob reference.... thinking of every single trade offer I could remember involving KRob... I was really confused when I verified that KRob was out of the league years before CPat was drafted.

Need some more votes.

Brisco54 said:

Ok... now I get it.... I have been feeling like an idiot for the last two hours (more than usual that is).....

I was racking my brain for a memory that would justify the KRob reference.... thinking of every single trade offer I could remember involving KRob... I was really confused when I verified that KRob was out of the league years before CPat was drafted.

Click to expand...

I have that effect on people sometimes... don't blame yourself lol

This one is too close to call early so we are looking for at least 4 more votes.

Mrs. Punk is sitting next to me and likes Baldwin over the 1.06. Does that count?

have her log in and vote!  : )

Mrs. Punk voted Baldwin saying he is vastly underrated.

This poll is now closed.  There was a tie with Doug Baldwin and Rookie Pick 1.6 both taking 11 of 56 votes.

The next poll is available here:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/754876-player-44-community-dynasty-rankings/