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Breshard Perriman (1 Viewer)

smbkrypt24

Footballguy
12 Team PPR league.  Start 1QB, 1-3RB, 1-3WR, 1TE, 1 Kicker, 1 DEF.

Would you trade:

B. Perriman, 2.09

for

C. Walford, 1.11, 3.03

For a little context my teams strength is WR and I would say i am a few pieces away from contending for championship.  I have 1.05 in this years draft.  My main weakness would be RB.

ETA: I forgot there were no signatures in this forum and posted for a team in signature.

 
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If Perriman is expendable I might consider it.  Prefer him though.
He is expendable. I have K. Allen, S. Watkins, A. Cooper, K. Benjamin, M. Bryant, L. Treadwell ahead of him.  However, I dont want to give up value because i dont need him this year.  If I was competing I could see making the deal and packaging the pick to upgrade elsewhere, but I want to maximize value when rebuilding. 

 
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I would prefer the 1.11 side as well.  That is still getting decent value for Perriman who just hasn't gotten much going even if it was due to injury or whatever.

 
Thing is, even if you don't need Perriman, he's got a fantastic shot at tons of volume in the Ravens offense this year. You may be selling him at close to his true value given the risk, but there's a non-negligible chance he puts up good numbers this year and you'll kick yourself for selling too soon. SSS and Aiken leaving frees up 150 targets, and Perriman already saw 66 last year. Factor in that Pitta saw 120 largely by virtue of being healthy all year (and nothing against Pitta, but it's a decent bet for any TE to miss a couple games, especially one with his history), and the RB stable altogether saw another 140 targets (so even with Woodhead signing, it isn't like the RB target share is likely to increase), and you start to realize the massive opportunity for volume staring Perriman in the face. If you double him up to 130 targets (for a 19% target share, not too crazy, and leaves ~90 WR targets up for grabs for an FA or rookie to take), he improves his catch rate to just 55% from 50% of last year, and he maintains his yards per catch, you're looking at a 24 year old NFL first rounder putting up a line of 72-1080-6 or so in his 2nd real season. The narrative will change to "he's finally showing his true potential, no reason to think he can't stay healthy from here on out, he'll enter 2018 as Flacco's WR1 and will have low end fantasy WR1 upside" etc etc.

Since you're not getting a huge haul, I would personally hold him and hope he hits well this year. Worst case, he disappoints again in 2017, and you'll still be able to sell him for a late 2nd or so. I don't think Perriman is going to be some legit perennial WR1, but I think you really run the risk of selling a year too early if you sell now. Better to let him simmer on your roster and see what you can sell him for if he breaks out.

 
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Thing is, even if you don't need Perriman, he's got a fantastic shot at tons of volume in the Ravens offense this year. You may be selling him at close to his true value given the risk, but there's a non-negligible chance he puts up good numbers this year and you'll kick yourself for selling too soon. SSS and Aiken leaving frees up 150 targets, and Perriman already saw 66 last year. Factor in that Pitta saw 120 largely by virtue of being healthy all year (and nothing against Pitta, but it's a decent bet for any TE to miss a couple games, especially one with his history), and the RB stable altogether saw another 140 targets (so even with Woodhead signing, it isn't like the RB target share is likely to increase), and you start to realize the massive opportunity for volume staring Perriman in the face. If you double him up to 130 targets (for a 19% target share, not too crazy, and leaves ~90 WR targets up for grabs for an FA or rookie to take), he improves his catch rate to just 55% from 50% of last year, and he maintains his yards per catch, you're looking at a 24 year old NFL first rounder putting up a line of 72-1080-6 or so in his 2nd real season. The narrative will change to "he's finally showing his true potential, no reason to think he can't stay healthy from here on out, he'll enter 2018 as Flacco's WR1 and will have low end fantasy WR1 upside" etc etc.

Since you're not getting a huge haul, I would personally hold him and hope he hits well this year. Worst case, he disappoints again in 2017, and you'll still be able to sell him for a late 2nd or so. I don't think Perriman is going to be some legit perennial WR1, but I think you really run the risk of selling a year too early if you sell now. Better to let him simmer on your roster and see what you can sell him for if he breaks out.
Thank you for the in depth response.  This was kind of my hesitancy in dealing Perriman.  This is year to "breakout or bust" if you will.  He is healthy, should know the playbook and preformed decent when on the field.  I thought the offer was fair.

 
I countered the offer and posted this because I didn't know if I was wrong.  I tried to squeeze a little more value out of Perriman (as in switching the 2.08 for 3.06).  The trade partner I believe didn't like this or felt disrespected for such a minor switch.  I felt that this is Perriman's year to prove it and just wanted a little more.  Trade talks broke down and then I posted to make sure I wasn't completely off on value.

 
Blardorg did make a good response.  I'm not sure what to expect from Perriman but 2017 should be the year to know if you have anything there or not.  The injury seems to be behind him and he is in a good position at the moment to see a decent increase in targets.  

 
Man, I have Perriman as well in a dynasty league. Been trying to gauge his worth for the last year or so. That response got me really thinking hard...

Thing is, even if you don't need Perriman, he's got a fantastic shot at tons of volume in the Ravens offense this year. You may be selling him at close to his true value given the risk, but there's a non-negligible chance he puts up good numbers this year and you'll kick yourself for selling too soon. SSS and Aiken leaving frees up 150 targets, and Perriman already saw 66 last year. Factor in that Pitta saw 120 largely by virtue of being healthy all year (and nothing against Pitta, but it's a decent bet for any TE to miss a couple games, especially one with his history), and the RB stable altogether saw another 140 targets (so even with Woodhead signing, it isn't like the RB target share is likely to increase), and you start to realize the massive opportunity for volume staring Perriman in the face. If you double him up to 130 targets (for a 19% target share, not too crazy, and leaves ~90 WR targets up for grabs for an FA or rookie to take), he improves his catch rate to just 55% from 50% of last year, and he maintains his yards per catch, you're looking at a 24 year old NFL first rounder putting up a line of 72-1080-6 or so in his 2nd real season. The narrative will change to "he's finally showing his true potential, no reason to think he can't stay healthy from here on out, he'll enter 2018 as Flacco's WR1 and will have low end fantasy WR1 upside" etc etc.

Since you're not getting a huge haul, I would personally hold him and hope he hits well this year. Worst case, he disappoints again in 2017, and you'll still be able to sell him for a late 2nd or so. I don't think Perriman is going to be some legit perennial WR1, but I think you really run the risk of selling a year too early if you sell now. Better to let him simmer on your roster and see what you can sell him for if he breaks out.




 
Man, I have been trying to value Perriman for the last year or so. I own him in a dynasty league as well. That was some really good analysis. 

 

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