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Looking for Links (1 Viewer)

Clayton Gray

Clayton Gray

Just call me Carlton
Staff member
We are finally going to update the links page, and I would like your help.

Keeping with the family-friendly theme of Footballguys, what are some categories you'd like to see on a links page? And, of course, what sites would you like to see linked? If you were going to create a new links page, what would you have on it?

Thanks!

 
I didn't even realize that FBG maintained this.  Very helpful resource.  And props to you for including links to competitors' sites.

 
Some sites I use:

Dynasty League Football (dynasty rankings & articles)
Pro Football Reference (stats)
cfbstats (college stats)
Sports Reference: College Football (college stats)
Football Study Hall (college stats, articles)
Pro Football Logic (stats, articles)
Pro Football Focus (stats, prospect analysis)
The Fantasy Footballers (especially Reception Perception)
Draft Breakdown (prospect videos)
NFL Draft Scout (prospect measurements)
Football Perspective (blog)
Fantasy Football Calculator (mock draft ADP)
Football Outsiders (stats, articles, prospect ratings)
Rotoworld (news archived by player)
Smart Football (blog)
Over the Cap (salaries)

There could be a category for sites that are heavy on stats & analytics, which many of these would fall into. Or, there could be a category for sites that are useful for evaluating incoming NFL prospects including sites with college stats (which is different from standard draft chatter).

 
MattFancy said:
Fantasy Pros
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I have been using this site since it arrived a few years ago.  I was shocked when I saw their new pricing models this year ...holy ####.

Up until this year, the price was very reasonable ...like $15 for the season - included all the filtering and DFS line-up building.  May have only tracked a couple of teams.

This year ...ANNUAL COMMITMENT (billed all at once)

minimal - $36 (2 teams, NO live drafting tool, no DFS)

moderate - $60 (10 teams, live drafting tool, no DFS)

best - $96 (unlimited teams, live drafting tool and DFS line ups)

You can go monthly - but for much higher - like 2.5X -3x!!  

Crazy ...and NumberFire is even more!!!  It will be interesting to see how their new pricing models work for their business ...I'm in shock.  

 
Binky The Doormat said:
I have been using this site since it arrived a few years ago.  I was shocked when I saw their new pricing models this year ...holy ####.

Up until this year, the price was very reasonable ...like $15 for the season - included all the filtering and DFS line-up building.  May have only tracked a couple of teams.

This year ...ANNUAL COMMITMENT (billed all at once)

minimal - $36 (2 teams, NO live drafting tool, no DFS)

moderate - $60 (10 teams, live drafting tool, no DFS)

best - $96 (unlimited teams, live drafting tool and DFS line ups)

You can go monthly - but for much higher - like 2.5X -3x!!  

Crazy ...and NumberFire is even more!!!  It will be interesting to see how their new pricing models work for their business ...I'm in shock.  
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That does seem nuts. I've never used their pay services. I just go there and use the rankings. No way I would pay that money.

 
Numberfire.com has some interesting takes and some good analytics and statistics info.  I have started going to that site for different oppinions since the Late Round QB guy (JJ Zacharisis?) joined with them.

The Living the Stream podcast is pretty good to if you like to punt on QB/TE/Def in your drafts.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Numberfire.com has some interesting takes and some good analytics and statistics info.  I have started going to that site for different oppinions since the Late Round QB guy (JJ Zacharisis?) joined with them.

The Living the Stream podcast is pretty good to if you like to punt on QB/TE/Def in your drafts.
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Wasn't Numberfire free until this year or last year? I used to browse through when it was free, but found it pretty useless. Their insistence on using their "signature stat" is so annoying since it's a deeply flawed stat. But like I said, it's been a year or two since I've read anything by them. Maybe they've gotten better.

 
FF Ninja said:
Wasn't Numberfire free until this year or last year? I used to browse through when it was free, but found it pretty useless. Their insistence on using their "signature stat" is so annoying since it's a deeply flawed stat. But like I said, it's been a year or two since I've read anything by them. Maybe they've gotten better.
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Its partially free.  I agree that their one go to stat is kinda useless for FF, but it is indicative of overall performance which is some what useful.  I mainly go there for just the articles by JJ and his podcast he does a couple times a week.  

 
abbottjamesr said:
Its partially free.  I agree that their one go to stat is kinda useless for FF, but it is indicative of overall performance which is some what useful.  I mainly go there for just the articles by JJ and his podcast he does a couple times a week.  
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I can't remember the details, but I think it was highly skewed by TDs, so basically it is good at identifying the most obvious producers from the previous year.

 
I assume you are talking about their Net Expected Points Metric.. It sounds like it has been revised a few time in the last couple years.  Supposedly it looks at how well a player performed in specific situations versus the average in that situation.  So your right it can be skewed some by TD's if a player was extremely efficient near the goal line but it shouldn't be that skewed as the average NEP for all RB's should be high at the goal line.  Like I said it doesn't help directly for FF projections but it does help to see talent and decifer which players' stats are due to situational use or due to great play in bad situations.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I assume you are talking about their Net Expected Points Metric.. It sounds like it has been revised a few time in the last couple years.  Supposedly it looks at how well a player performed in specific situations versus the average in that situation.  So your right it can be skewed some by TD's if a player was extremely efficient near the goal line but it shouldn't be that skewed as the average NEP for all RB's should be high at the goal line.  Like I said it doesn't help directly for FF projections but it does help to see talent and decifer which players' stats are due to situational use or due to great play in bad situations.
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Yeah, NEP. It felt like every article they'd actually use the phrase "our signature stat, NEP..." 

And I thought I recalled them just assigning each player a single NEP, but maybe I'm wrong and they did only look at certain situations. But basically, if a WR had a relatively high TD/rec ratio, he automatically had a high NEP. If he did well, but didn't catch a lot of TDs, then low NEP. I remember reading thoroughly about the metric and thinking it was a poor gimmick trying to ride some PFF coat tails. Sorry for the rant. Haven't thought about NEP in a while and it got me all annoyed again!

 
PlayerProfiler.com is amazing, but the owner does have harsh criticisms for Sigmund, FBG and the idea of VBD so I would get it if that link was left off. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Yeah, NEP. It felt like every article they'd actually use the phrase "our signature stat, NEP..." 

And I thought I recalled them just assigning each player a single NEP, but maybe I'm wrong and they did only look at certain situations. But basically, if a WR had a relatively high TD/rec ratio, he automatically had a high NEP. If he did well, but didn't catch a lot of TDs, then low NEP. I remember reading thoroughly about the metric and thinking it was a poor gimmick trying to ride some PFF coat tails. Sorry for the rant. Haven't thought about NEP in a while and it got me all annoyed again!
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Don't sweat it.  I like seeing other peoples work and thought process and NEP is just something a little different that might be beneficial on occasion.

 
I have been following NumberFire since it came out as well and enjoy JJ's stuff.  But $20/mo. or $30/mo. (you get betting recommendations) ...from zero?  

Wow.  

The leap pricing model similarities are very close.  Seems weird.  

 
Ilov80s said:
PlayerProfiler.com is amazing, but the owner does have harsh criticisms for Sigmund, FBG and the idea of VBD so I would get it if that link was left off. 
Click to expand...
Where did you see that? Now I'm curious to read his take on it...

But yeah playerprofiler is a great resource for measurables and they've got some good data like college target share, breakout age, etc. I don't usually read into their articles too much due to their heavy reliance on combine stats even for WRs (for which combine stats and NFL production have no correlation).

 
FF Ninja said:
Where did you see that? Now I'm curious to read his take on it...

But yeah playerprofiler is a great resource for measurables and they've got some good data like college target share, breakout age, etc. I don't usually read into their articles too much due to their heavy reliance on combine stats even for WRs (for which combine stats and NFL production have no correlation).
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His podcast. He talks a lot of trash so it's his style and I'm not sure how much is schtick. I agree with him and JJ that VBD isn't an ideal draft strategy.

 
Ilov80s said:
His podcast. He talks a lot of trash so it's his style and I'm not sure how much is schtick. I agree with him and JJ that VBD isn't an ideal draft strategy.
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I've actually never given VBD much thought at all. Isn't it based on projections?

 
FF Ninja said:
I've actually never given VBD much thought at all. Isn't it based on projections?
Click to expand...
That's problem #1 is that it's based on inaccurate projections- not just what each player will score but also what replacement level will be. Also it doesn't account for supply/demand. Lots of other people advocate for a strategy (zero RB or whatever) where your plan is based on game theory and not guessing which players are the best.

 
Ilov80s said:
That's problem #1 is that it's based on inaccurate projections- not just what each player will score but also what replacement level will be. Also it doesn't account for supply/demand. Lots of other people advocate for a strategy (zero RB or whatever) where your plan is based on game theory and not guessing which players are the best.
Click to expand...
How do you suggest valuing players more accurately without projections?

SMH

 
Biabreakable said:
How do you suggest valuing players more accurately without projections?

SMH
Click to expand...


Here are some of the issues presented with VBD. I don't know why you are SMH, the people presenting these arguments are very intelligent and some of them have been featured guests with Sig. 

1. If someone follows VBD, should they draft a QB or K in the first round if their projections say that player has the highest value over replacement? No, so VBD never accounts for supply/demand. 

2. Projections are wrong. Even the best in the industry do a terrible job projecting players. I am ok with using a projection to determine whether I want to draft Jordy or Dez? Lamar Miller or Isaiah Crowell? These are established players in relatively stable roles. The further we get into drafts, the more useless our projections become. How can anyone comfortably project rookies like Corey Davis or Joe Mixon? How do we project a guy like Tevin Coleman who has such a wide range of outcomes? How do we project a Mike Gillislee where the role is impossible to really know? What people usually do is kind of split the difference and project a middle of the road number, but does that really reflect the value or potential outcomes of these guys?

To continue that point, roster construction is important. Sometimes we need a guy that projects to be safer, sometimes the makeup of our roster would push us to want to draft a more boom/bust player. 

3. If you look back at previous drafts and you were happy with 50% if your picks, you killed that draft. Most of our picks disappoint us. Using VBD gives us a  false sense of confidence. So with a WR heavy draft strategy, someone might use projections to help choose between which WRs to draft, they will ignore VBD. Why use a strategy that is wrong >50% of the time to choose which player AND position to take? WR heavy admits that we don't know much about the upcoming season and admits we will fail with many of our picks. So we draft 6 WRs to start the draft with the idea that if I am 50% successful, I will have the position (in most leagues) with the greatest demand covered. Then, I can use the fragility of the RB position to get values at RB later in the draft and on WW. That isn't the only possible strategy, but it is a strategy that doesn't rely on highly inaccurate projections. 

Other smarter people have laid these arguments out if you want to know more. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Here are some of the issues presented with VBD. I don't know why you are SMH, the people presenting these arguments are very intelligent and some of them have been featured guests with Sig. 

1. If someone follows VBD, should they draft a QB or K in the first round if their projections say that player has the highest value over replacement? No, so VBD never accounts for supply/demand. 

2. Projections are wrong. Even the best in the industry do a terrible job projecting players. I am ok with using a projection to determine whether I want to draft Jordy or Dez? Lamar Miller or Isaiah Crowell? These are established players in relatively stable roles. The further we get into drafts, the more useless our projections become. How can anyone comfortably project rookies like Corey Davis or Joe Mixon? How do we project a guy like Tevin Coleman who has such a wide range of outcomes? How do we project a Mike Gillislee where the role is impossible to really know? What people usually do is kind of split the difference and project a middle of the road number, but does that really reflect the value or potential outcomes of these guys?

To continue that point, roster construction is important. Sometimes we need a guy that projects to be safer, sometimes the makeup of our roster would push us to want to draft a more boom/bust player. 

3. If you look back at previous drafts and you were happy with 50% if your picks, you killed that draft. Most of our picks disappoint us. Using VBD gives us a  false sense of confidence. So with a WR heavy draft strategy, someone might use projections to help choose between which WRs to draft, they will ignore VBD. Why use a strategy that is wrong >50% of the time to choose which player AND position to take? WR heavy admits that we don't know much about the upcoming season and admits we will fail with many of our picks. So we draft 6 WRs to start the draft with the idea that if I am 50% successful, I will have the position (in most leagues) with the greatest demand covered. Then, I can use the fragility of the RB position to get values at RB later in the draft and on WW. That isn't the only possible strategy, but it is a strategy that doesn't rely on highly inaccurate projections. 

Other smarter people have laid these arguments out if you want to know more. 
Click to expand...
Totally agree with this. Projections are a good exercise and I like to throw them around for discussion purposes when I feel like enough data is present to take a stab at it, but I've got a couple big problems with them. First, like you said, there are guys that nobody can realistically project. And equally important, projections are static. At a minimum, I also take into account floor and upside when drafting someone. Like let's say you play in a standard league and project Landry for 1150/5 and you project Keenan for 1050/6. That means you probably draft Landry by VBD, but in reality that projection is near Landry's ceiling, whereas Keenan's upside is much higher. Or guys like Rishard Matthews and Marvin Jones... probably similar projections, but Marvin's obviously got so much more upside.

 
Ilov80s said:
Here are some of the issues presented with VBD. I don't know why you are SMH, the people presenting these arguments are very intelligent and some of them have been featured guests with Sig. 

1. If someone follows VBD, should they draft a QB or K in the first round if their projections say that player has the highest value over replacement? No, so VBD never accounts for supply/demand. 

2. Projections are wrong. Even the best in the industry do a terrible job projecting players. I am ok with using a projection to determine whether I want to draft Jordy or Dez? Lamar Miller or Isaiah Crowell? These are established players in relatively stable roles. The further we get into drafts, the more useless our projections become. How can anyone comfortably project rookies like Corey Davis or Joe Mixon? How do we project a guy like Tevin Coleman who has such a wide range of outcomes? How do we project a Mike Gillislee where the role is impossible to really know? What people usually do is kind of split the difference and project a middle of the road number, but does that really reflect the value or potential outcomes of these guys?

To continue that point, roster construction is important. Sometimes we need a guy that projects to be safer, sometimes the makeup of our roster would push us to want to draft a more boom/bust player. 

3. If you look back at previous drafts and you were happy with 50% if your picks, you killed that draft. Most of our picks disappoint us. Using VBD gives us a  false sense of confidence. So with a WR heavy draft strategy, someone might use projections to help choose between which WRs to draft, they will ignore VBD. Why use a strategy that is wrong >50% of the time to choose which player AND position to take? WR heavy admits that we don't know much about the upcoming season and admits we will fail with many of our picks. So we draft 6 WRs to start the draft with the idea that if I am 50% successful, I will have the position (in most leagues) with the greatest demand covered. Then, I can use the fragility of the RB position to get values at RB later in the draft and on WW. That isn't the only possible strategy, but it is a strategy that doesn't rely on highly inaccurate projections. 

Other smarter people have laid these arguments out if you want to know more. 
Click to expand...
I don't think they know what VBD is because

1) Is completely incorrect. The entire purpose of VBD is so that kickers and QBs aren't taken first.

2) Everyone is making projections when they draft. You're not projecting David Johnson to score more FF points than Jeremy Hill? Projections are almost the entire point of fantasy football. Whether or not some wants to use FBGs is a different discussion but to criticize the this aspect of VBD doesn't make sense.

3) You just laid out a different strategy. I'm not going to attack your purposes strategy but just because you can take a different strategy doesn't make the other one wrong. 

Most of what I said is just regurgitated from a recent FBG article here. 

 
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Borden said:
I don't think they know what VBD is because

1) Is completely incorrect. The entire purpose of VBD is so that kickers and QBs aren't taken first.

2) Everyone is making projections when they draft. You're not projecting David Johnson to score more FF points than Jeremy Hill? Projections are almost the entire point of fantasy football. Whether or not some wants to use FBGs is a different discussion but to criticize the this aspect of VBD doesn't make sense.
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1) It is very possible to have a VBD system that indicates a QB is worth taking in the first round because they project to outscore QB13 by such a significant margin. Based on last years numbers, Matt Bryant was +34 over replacement level kicker. Lamar Miller was +31 over replacement level RB. Does that mean Matt Bryant was a more valuable fantasy asset last year than Lamar Miller? Tyreek Hill scored only 23 points more than WR 37. Should we be thinking about drafting Matt Bryant over Tyreek Hill this year? 

2) I am not projecting players beyond the first 4-5 rounds because it's shooting in the dark. I am ranking mid to late round players based on position (which positions are more valuable, which positions do I need, runs in the draft, upside, risk, etc.)

 
Ilov80s said:
1) It is very possible to have a VBD system that indicates a QB is worth taking in the first round because they project to outscore QB13 by such a significant margin. Based on last years numbers, Matt Bryant was +34 over replacement level kicker. Lamar Miller was +31 over replacement level RB. Does that mean Matt Bryant was a more valuable fantasy asset last year than Lamar Miller? Tyreek Hill scored only 23 points more than WR 37. Should we be thinking about drafting Matt Bryant over Tyreek Hill this year? 

2) I am not projecting players beyond the first 4-5 rounds because it's shooting in the dark. I am ranking mid to late round players based on position (which positions are more valuable, which positions do I need, runs in the draft, upside, risk, etc.)
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This stuff is why I play FF and is facinating, however, should be start a seperate thread on the merits of VBD instead of doing it in the Looking for Links thread?

I want to continue the conversation, but it feels odd to do it here.

James

 
abbottjamesr said:
This stuff is why I play FF and is facinating, however, should be start a seperate thread on the merits of VBD instead of doing it in the Looking for Links thread?

I want to continue the conversation, but it feels odd to do it here.

James
Click to expand...
Good point. Sorry for derailing things. 

 
abbottjamesr said:
This stuff is why I play FF and is facinating, however, should be start a seperate thread on the merits of VBD instead of doing it in the Looking for Links thread?

I want to continue the conversation, but it feels odd to do it here.

James
Click to expand...
Agree, didn't mean to clog it up. 

 
Hey Guys. Couple of things. 

Playerprofiler.com is an excellent site and resource. I don't know the folks that run it personally but I'm sure they're great. I'm not sure of any specifics of them criticizing me and Value Based Drafting, but that's just part of having a business. All good there.

For Value Based Drafting, as Borden said, the best explanation I have is here. I know some people like other systems, but I've never heard anyone think it doesn't take into account supply and demand. VBD is effectively nothing more than applying supply and demand to fantasy football valuation. Kickers are less valuable because they're plentiful. Quarterbacks shoot to the top of a 2 Starting QB cheatsheet because they are in high demand. 

And for sure, it might be best to start up a new thread so this one stays on track. Thanks.

J

 
Joe Bryant said:
Hey Guys. Couple of things. 

Playerprofiler.com is an excellent site and resource. I don't know the folks that run it personally but I'm sure they're great. I'm not sure of any specifics of them criticizing me and Value Based Drafting, but that's just part of having a business. All good there.

For Value Based Drafting, as Borden said, the best explanation I have is here. I know some people like other systems, but I've never heard anyone think it doesn't take into account supply and demand. VBD is effectively nothing more than applying supply and demand to fantasy football valuation. Kickers are less valuable because they're plentiful. Quarterbacks shoot to the top of a 2 Starting QB cheatsheet because they are in high demand. 

And for sure, it might be best to start up a new thread so this one stays on track. Thanks.

J
Click to expand...
Thanks Joe.  

I just created a new thread to discuss VBD and its merits and flaws.  Like I said before, to me this is the fun part of FF.  VBD has stood the test of time and I don't think that it will be easily replaced maybe just improved on.

James

 
abbottjamesr said:
Thanks Joe.  

I just created a new thread to discuss VBD and its merits and flaws.  Like I said before, to me this is the fun part of FF.  VBD has stood the test of time and I don't think that it will be easily replaced maybe just improved on.

James
Click to expand...
Thanks James. 

I'm a big believer most everything can be improved.

J

 
Ilov80s said:
Here are some of the issues presented with VBD. I don't know why you are SMH, the people presenting these arguments are very intelligent and some of them have been featured guests with Sig. 

1. If someone follows VBD, should they draft a QB or K in the first round if their projections say that player has the highest value over replacement? No, so VBD never accounts for supply/demand. 

2. Projections are wrong. Even the best in the industry do a terrible job projecting players. I am ok with using a projection to determine whether I want to draft Jordy or Dez? Lamar Miller or Isaiah Crowell? These are established players in relatively stable roles. The further we get into drafts, the more useless our projections become. How can anyone comfortably project rookies like Corey Davis or Joe Mixon? How do we project a guy like Tevin Coleman who has such a wide range of outcomes? How do we project a Mike Gillislee where the role is impossible to really know? What people usually do is kind of split the difference and project a middle of the road number, but does that really reflect the value or potential outcomes of these guys?

To continue that point, roster construction is important. Sometimes we need a guy that projects to be safer, sometimes the makeup of our roster would push us to want to draft a more boom/bust player. 

3. If you look back at previous drafts and you were happy with 50% if your picks, you killed that draft. Most of our picks disappoint us. Using VBD gives us a  false sense of confidence. So with a WR heavy draft strategy, someone might use projections to help choose between which WRs to draft, they will ignore VBD. Why use a strategy that is wrong >50% of the time to choose which player AND position to take? WR heavy admits that we don't know much about the upcoming season and admits we will fail with many of our picks. So we draft 6 WRs to start the draft with the idea that if I am 50% successful, I will have the position (in most leagues) with the greatest demand covered. Then, I can use the fragility of the RB position to get values at RB later in the draft and on WW. That isn't the only possible strategy, but it is a strategy that doesn't rely on highly inaccurate projections. 

Other smarter people have laid these arguments out if you want to know more. 
Click to expand...
None of that answers my question.

If you are going to tear down a specific methodology of valuing players as wrong, then you need to offer something that is better to replace it. I do not think anything you said does that.

So I will ask again, How do you suggest valuing players more accurately without projections?

eta - sorry I didn't realize there was a new thread for this discussion started. I agree this isn't really the right topic for this discussion. Will try to catch up with conversations in the other thread when I have time.

 
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I'm pretty sure it should be easy enough to figure out if some new content is worth adding..  Ya just read some, and ask yourself if it sounds like B.S. or not. 

Now I could see a problem determining if a site should stay..  There could be some form of bias involved, which makes the decision rather difficult.  So, by all means post some links of sites that you may not be too sure about, and I would think that a few of us may take a look-see.

It may be more difficult, and not really needed.  But, I believe ya may consider some connotation for links like "draft advisor software"  I cant recall ever reading a post w/ questions or comments on anything besides Draft Dominator.  Its almost like comparing a primary source to something more like a reference.  For example, we could see "MyFantasyLeague" have a link appear w/ an angry joe icon at the end (or perhaps bolded a different color) Then ya could have a site like "the fantasy diner" listed, but w/o so much of a plugging nature  (dead link btw)

Do you have any misc sites planned that ya could share now?

 
Ilov80s said:
Here are some of the issues presented with VBD. I don't know why you are SMH, the people presenting these arguments are very intelligent and some of them have been featured guests with Sig. 

1. If someone follows VBD, should they draft a QB or K in the first round if their projections say that player has the highest value over replacement? No, so VBD never accounts for supply/demand. 

2. Projections are wrong. Even the best in the industry do a terrible job projecting players. I am ok with using a projection to determine whether I want to draft Jordy or Dez? Lamar Miller or Isaiah Crowell? These are established players in relatively stable roles. The further we get into drafts, the more useless our projections become. How can anyone comfortably project rookies like Corey Davis or Joe Mixon? How do we project a guy like Tevin Coleman who has such a wide range of outcomes? How do we project a Mike Gillislee where the role is impossible to really know? What people usually do is kind of split the difference and project a middle of the road number, but does that really reflect the value or potential outcomes of these guys?

To continue that point, roster construction is important. Sometimes we need a guy that projects to be safer, sometimes the makeup of our roster would push us to want to draft a more boom/bust player. 

3. If you look back at previous drafts and you were happy with 50% if your picks, you killed that draft. Most of our picks disappoint us. Using VBD gives us a  false sense of confidence. So with a WR heavy draft strategy, someone might use projections to help choose between which WRs to draft, they will ignore VBD. Why use a strategy that is wrong >50% of the time to choose which player AND position to take? WR heavy admits that we don't know much about the upcoming season and admits we will fail with many of our picks. So we draft 6 WRs to start the draft with the idea that if I am 50% successful, I will have the position (in most leagues) with the greatest demand covered. Then, I can use the fragility of the RB position to get values at RB later in the draft and on WW. That isn't the only possible strategy, but it is a strategy that doesn't rely on highly inaccurate projections. 

Other smarter people have laid these arguments out if you want to know more. 
Click to expand...
With respect to 1., that's completely inaccurate at least in the case with dynamic VBD.  Also vbd is not some cult following that mindlessly needs to be adhered to, it is a guide that helps quantify the delta of value between positions and is one of many factors used when selecting a player, not the only one. One of which is ADP and not drafting a player substantially before theirs.

2. Projections are wrong, but it is your best assumption based on the data you know and it helps with eliminating bias of players that you may think are better or worse based on random observations rather than stats.

3. I disagree in general with pretty much everything in #3, and think your issue with vbd is that you are just using it wrong. It's like me complaining about how useless a wrench is when baking a pie. Vbd is the quantitative backbone for a draft filled with qualitative decisions. Based on vbd, adp, and your general macro draft strategy, You should have a general idea of what positions you are drafting in what round pending the flow of the draft which will inevitably impact that. But by using vbd to get a good handle of when there are pockets of value within the course of the draft for each position I firmly believe you will out draft your opponents every year.

Of course there is always luck involved and the draft is just the start as many teams are made or broken with free agent decisions but the draft gives you your nucleus which is made much better through the use of vbd.

but don't use it I really don't care.

 
bagger said:
2. Projections are wrong, but it is your best assumption based on the data you know and it helps with eliminating bias of players that you may think are better or worse based on random observations rather than stats.
Click to expand...
I stopped doing projections a few years ago because as you said they are wrong and I know I'm not going to get them right.  Instead I rank the players by position in the order I like them.  And then use the last 3 years of scoring to determine my VBD (WR1 = 94, WR2  = 88, WR3 = 86, for example).  Instead of letting my not so good projections tell me who is WR1, I decide that Brown is WR1, Julio WR2, and Beckham WR3.  Not perfect but I like it better for me.

My issue with VBD is determining the baseline.  I don't like QB12 at QB.  This year, I see 17 QB that I believe are "startable" in fantasy.  That alone tells me to wait on a QB but if I move the QB baseline from QB12 to QB17 it just makes Rodgers and Brady more "valuable" in VBD instead of less like I'm desiring.  I'm sure the dynamic VBD probably addresses this but I haven't spent enough time reading up on that.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
I stopped doing projections a few years ago because as you said they are wrong and I know I'm not going to get them right.  Instead I rank the players by position in the order I like them.  And then use the last 3 years of scoring to determine my VBD (WR1 = 94, WR2  = 88, WR3 = 86, for example).  Instead of letting my not so good projections tell me who is WR1, I decide that Brown is WR1, Julio WR2, and Beckham WR3.  Not perfect but I like it better for me.

My issue with VBD is determining the baseline.  I don't like QB12 at QB.  This year, I see 17 QB that I believe are "startable" in fantasy.  That alone tells me to wait on a QB but if I move the QB baseline from QB12 to QB17 it just makes Rodgers and Brady more "valuable" in VBD instead of less like I'm desiring.  I'm sure the dynamic VBD probably addresses this but I haven't spent enough time reading up on that.
Click to expand...
I agree with you that baselines in general are not useful or maybe better said have differing use to different people. I like you get a more general feel of buckets and then try to overlay that with adp to see where I want to target my different positions.

 
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