Rich Hill under 3.25 ERA.
Everyone thinks Rich Hill is going to break. Maybe he will. Maybe you can't throw a full season of 50% curves.
If we're betting on a rate statistic though, Bet on Hill. tldr: He isn't going to get hit.
Nerdier version. Among guys who pitched 100 innings last year, only Kershaw had a lower ERA. That isn't always predictive but this is...Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer had a better K/9 and better bb/9 than Hill. Scherzer had a 1.22 HR/9 compared to 0.33 for Hill. Hill's curveball was the 2nd most valuable in baseball last year on fangraphs and if you look at pitch fx data, the movement suggests it's not going to change. He paired it with a fastball way better than Corey Klubers (the 1 guy who's curve beat him). So what you have is a guy who put up top 5 underlying metrics last year pitching in Dodger stadium.
In the last 10 years the Dodgers have had at least 16 full time SPs finish under 3.25. Kershaw helps yes, but Derek Lowe has done it there. So have billingsly, Ryu, Kuroda, and Randy Wolfe to name a few.
If you don't want to bet on Hill in fantasy, I get it. He might throw 170 innings or 17. I can tell one thing you should not bet on is a high ERA for Rich Hill.
