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1.1 Perfect Scenario (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dmac37
- Start date
msudaisy26
Footballguy
No to the 1st 2
Fournette to the Jags could be nice
Fournette/Cook to the Packers, Colts, Chiefs, Bucs, Redskins
Sleeper(s) things I would like, but I get why they aren't popular. Either guy to the Lions, or Ravens
dipandglide
Footballguy
McCaffrey to the Colts
msudaisy26
Footballguy
My ideal scenario for the first 7 guys I see drafted in rookie drafts
1.01 Fournette - Colts they trade up for 15th to get him.
1.02 Cook - Redskins at 17
1.03 Davis - Cardinals at 13
1.04 Williams - Titans at 18
1.05 Mixon - Packers at 61
1.06 McCaffery - Saints at 32
1.07 Howard - Saints at 11
1.01 Fournette - Colts they trade up for 15th to get him.
1.02 Cook - Redskins at 17
1.03 Davis - Cardinals at 13
1.04 Williams - Titans at 18
1.05 Mixon - Packers at 61
1.06 McCaffery - Saints at 32
1.07 Howard - Saints at 11
Dave Stauff
Footballguy
!) Fournette to Jets
2) Davis to Cards
3) Cook to Colts
2) Davis to Cards
3) Cook to Colts
dmac37
Footballguy
Dave Stauff
Footballguy
Don't like Panthers with Newton vulturing . . .
Jets want to run first and have no established passing game, WR corps or QB . . .
Doubts in the Jags O line . . .
Doubts in Forte of other RB's being long term solution . . .
Jets want to run first and have no established passing game, WR corps or QB . . .
Doubts in the Jags O line . . .
Doubts in Forte of other RB's being long term solution . . .
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Finally a good post. I've seen months of talk about the Panthers and jags. Both are bad spots and I'll be trading the 1.01 if Fournette goes to either.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I'm not sure this is an accurate assessment, and it's insulting on top of it.
Fournette has not shown he can create for himself. When his offensive line did not have an advantage he struggled to produce. When they do have an advantage he is fully capable of superior performance.
Despite that, you would rather see him in IND, where the weakness of the O-line has crippled the offense and the capability of QB who hasn't been able to get close to the apex of his skills.
The Colts are going to need a RB whose game is very diverse and who can gain yardage in nontraditional ways. It seems to me that Cook or McCaffrey is a much better fit for IND than Fournette is.
Put Fournette in OAK or GB where the lines are strong and the passing games forces bigger rushing lanes and you've got a recipe for substantial success by him.
I believe your line of thinking is not only in poor judgment of others, but also misgiven in and of itself.
.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Maybe my fat rob Kelley will have some value!
1.01 mcaffery (colts)
1.02 Davis (Seahawks)
1.03 mixon (sf rd 2)
I don't think they will in the first, but I could see them grabbing one in the mid rounds.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I dunno. You think it would be funny if I said that it would be great if you were crippled in an accident for approving of those kinds of thoughts? Good one huh? Which I never would, btw
ETA - well, I had to come back to apologize. I behaved badly as well, and after all you didn't initiate the bad comment so it seems as though my frustration is misdirected.
I mean, if this is a let's pretend thread then why not have Zeke traded and DAL uses the 1st rounder acquired on Fournette? Why even think of a career ending injury?
It seems as though as our society moves forward that is becomes less and less civilized. In any case, please accept my apology.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
They have a lot of needs on the defensive side of the ball so I consider a 1st round RB or WR by Washington to be unlikely.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Maybe Mixon or Kamara in the 2nd? Also how logical is the ownership/management in DC?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I suppose they could do it as BPA but if they are going to draft a skill player, a WR or even a QB might be a higher priority.
Not that I think Kelly is some great RB or something, they could use an upgrade. I just don't think it is enough of a priority for them to consider a RB until later rounds.
On the last part I don't know how logical they are. I have not seen Dan Snyder throw big money at free agents recently.
I am still not really clear on what the OP is asking, but I think the question is what team and player would be ideal for the 1st overall pick and to be realistic about it.
Washington has a good offensive line so it would be a good landing spot for a RB or WR. I just don't think such a move would cause that player to become the 1st overall pick.
There isn't really an ideal situation like Elliot was last season. That was a pretty unique situation. I haven't done rankings yet, but I will not have tier 11 this year like I did for Elliot last year.
For me Mixon to Packers at 29 would be the most ideal scenario that is rooted in some element of possible reality.
Other possible plus spot landing scenarios I view as possible.
Fournette- seems like he has hardest chance to land in a sweet spot, unless you view Jax, Carolina or Jets as sweet spots anyway. The 49'ers at 2 would excite me for Fournette considerably more than those spots because of how well Kyle uses his Rb's.
Cook- Depending on what you read or who you listen to he's a top 2 RB in this draft or stock falling due to combine/off field and he's a second round pick. So his possible landing spots, like Mixon, are pretty vast. But when I think of ideal landing spots I think of being a first round pick is more ideal, shows more commitment, so for him I'd say the Colts in round one would be most ideal followed by Tampa.
McCaffery-last line I wrote on Cook applies to him. Colts in round one or Tampa.
Kamara- here is another one that could be all over the board and I think NFL teams like him more than internet scouts. I noticed something on Fridays episode of Path to the Draft, was minor but got my ears up. Heath Evans put Kamara in a skill set category of McCaffery in terms of how he can be used in passing game I believe and he said he was watching tape on him with Sean Payton the other day and then he just stopped what he was saying and moved on. Maybe he realized he said to much? Not sure but what I'm not afraid to read between the lines and its sure seemed to me he was insinuating that Payton was pretty high on Kamara. So for me I'm going to put him as going to Saints as plus landing spot.
I'd view Eagles as strong landing spot for any of these RB's but I don't think they take one in round one and I don't think any are left for them when they are OTC in round 2. Mixon would be only chance due to off field stuff.
Other possible plus spot landing scenarios I view as possible.
Fournette- seems like he has hardest chance to land in a sweet spot, unless you view Jax, Carolina or Jets as sweet spots anyway. The 49'ers at 2 would excite me for Fournette considerably more than those spots because of how well Kyle uses his Rb's.
Cook- Depending on what you read or who you listen to he's a top 2 RB in this draft or stock falling due to combine/off field and he's a second round pick. So his possible landing spots, like Mixon, are pretty vast. But when I think of ideal landing spots I think of being a first round pick is more ideal, shows more commitment, so for him I'd say the Colts in round one would be most ideal followed by Tampa.
McCaffery-last line I wrote on Cook applies to him. Colts in round one or Tampa.
Kamara- here is another one that could be all over the board and I think NFL teams like him more than internet scouts. I noticed something on Fridays episode of Path to the Draft, was minor but got my ears up. Heath Evans put Kamara in a skill set category of McCaffery in terms of how he can be used in passing game I believe and he said he was watching tape on him with Sean Payton the other day and then he just stopped what he was saying and moved on. Maybe he realized he said to much? Not sure but what I'm not afraid to read between the lines and its sure seemed to me he was insinuating that Payton was pretty high on Kamara. So for me I'm going to put him as going to Saints as plus landing spot.
I'd view Eagles as strong landing spot for any of these RB's but I don't think they take one in round one and I don't think any are left for them when they are OTC in round 2. Mixon would be only chance due to off field stuff.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As far as absolute best for 1.1 (not just best landing spots in general), it seems like Fournette to Indy is an absolute best case scenario that actually has a chance of happening.
Fournette is the guy most people want at 1.1, but like Meno mentioned he has the smallest chance of falling to a truly great spot since Indy/Oakland/GB all pick after he's expected to be off the board. Indy is the one possible exception where he could still be there.
Fournette is the guy most people want at 1.1, but like Meno mentioned he has the smallest chance of falling to a truly great spot since Indy/Oakland/GB all pick after he's expected to be off the board. Indy is the one possible exception where he could still be there.
I think they would have to move up to get him. Can't see him getting past the Jags or Panthers.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Not sure why people don't think Carolina is a good landing spot. Cam stopped vulturing TDs after hurting his head, and I expect that to continue. An injured Cam is worthless and I believe both he and the team now realize him pointlessly rushing for TDs has to slow down at the very least.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Cam could easily start vulturing again when feeling better. Then there is the shotgun issue that has been brought up a few times. Fournette's YPC dropped by 2.5ypc when running out of the shotgun compared to under center in college, and Carolina runs the highest percentage of shotgun snaps in the league.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
no consideration for Corey or even Mike Williams? why is everyone so locked in on the rib's??
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
If Mixon gets drafted anywhere that's a good spot I'm taking him over Fournette.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
People can't imagine this, and I don't know why.
All the mock drafts don't make it more likely.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Seems like a mistake to take a WR 1.01 in a year where the top WRs are pretty mediocre compared to most year's top WRs while the RBs are very strong compared to most year's top RBs.
dmac37
Footballguy
For me, I have 4 WR 1's and currently Lacy & AD are my top 2 RB's
. I really need to hit with an RB at 1.1, 1.10 or 2.1 or trade back pending the draft.
dmac37
Footballguy
I prefer an RB to excel with inside running and be able to make moves with great vision and quick burst moves like A. Foster, Emmitt Smith, and L. Bell. Fournette seems to be more about power and long speed compared to these guys.
I'm thinking Mixon and McCaffery may have better traits for NFL success and be more like these type of RB's and worth taking a closer look at for 1.1.
I'm thinking Mixon and McCaffery may have better traits for NFL success and be more like these type of RB's and worth taking a closer look at for 1.1.
fightingillini
Footballguy
This.
Cam has learned his lesson in 2016.....he can't keep playing the way he has been playing, or his career will end prematurely. He will still vulture some TDs, but there's no reason why Fournette couldn't be a stud in CAR.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
An ancient Gore and even Donald Brown thrived.....because Luck takes all the pressure away. And he'll be gifted a ton of short tds. You can improve the line and hide a lot of problems. Qb isn't so easy. And there is no competition at all. I agree the Packers would be better but my bigger point was that the Jaguars and Panthers are bad landing spots. Additionally all I did was say another person made a good post. Where you are getting all this other stuff is a real straw man exercise.
Your post is extremely rude, and incorrect on almost everything. For instance the Colts don't need a back like Fournette but Aaron Rodgers does? Sound thinking there.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
History, DeAngelo Williams went out and had a monster season and what did they do. Made it a time share with Stewart, plus Cam will still vulture touchdowns. Everyone has in the back of their mind that Carolina drafts Fournette and Mike Tolbert will be the goal line back, or a guy like Artis-Payne will take enough touches away to make Fournette an RB2, or god forbid Fournette goes nuts this year and in game 10 has a season ending injury and the draft another back next year and force another time share.
Ghost of Bill Walsh
Footballguy
Liked Bronco Billy's assessment. Idealy I'd like Fournette in Oakland EVEN if they acquire beast mode. I think they could accomodate,2 backs(see Atlanta). Plus what kinda shape would Lynch be in and I think Fournette would end up with the majority of the carries. Anyway Seattle still owns the rights to Lynch. Once beast gets his legs could help get,the division title.
McCaffrey just kinda feels like a fit in G.B. Rodgers would utilize his assets & skills as much as he can. If that be the case Montgomery may give way & lose carries to Christian. If McCaffrey ends up a Packer &they can improve their defense some they could become a powerful SB contender. Rodgers is probably at this moment putting McCaffrey bugs in all the higher ups & forces that be in Green Bay telling 'em, "Hey, get this guy and watch what happens. Let,me work him & we'll reap,the rewards" Revive the discount double check,lol.
In all, I can,just picture Fournette a Raider even if they wuss down to Las Vegas town and McCaffrey,uh, just feels right for him in a Green Bay Packers uniform. Just my opinions.
McCaffrey just kinda feels like a fit in G.B. Rodgers would utilize his assets & skills as much as he can. If that be the case Montgomery may give way & lose carries to Christian. If McCaffrey ends up a Packer &they can improve their defense some they could become a powerful SB contender. Rodgers is probably at this moment putting McCaffrey bugs in all the higher ups & forces that be in Green Bay telling 'em, "Hey, get this guy and watch what happens. Let,me work him & we'll reap,the rewards" Revive the discount double check,lol.
In all, I can,just picture Fournette a Raider even if they wuss down to Las Vegas town and McCaffrey,uh, just feels right for him in a Green Bay Packers uniform. Just my opinions.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The "Fournette is just a straight line guy" narrative has really just kind of built on itself this offseason. In this thread alone I'm seeing a notion that he can't move inside and that he can't create for himself. As a fan of a rival SEC team full of defensive players that are about to be drafted in the 1st and 2nd round, I disagree with that wholeheartedly. Two years ago when Fournette was healthy and he played Florida the Florida defense dominated the LoS and Fournette still ripped us up. 7 of those guys on that defense will end up 1st/2nd round NFL picks and they just couldn't get a hold of the guy inside the tackles.
Likewise with the notion that the Colts only want a guy who is super diverse. Gore had 34 and 38 catches in his two years in Indy. That's pretty modest in the modern NFL. It's pretty on par with Adrian Peterson's career average and he is generally not considered a diverse, pass catching RB.
So you see the Raiders trading up to get Fournette, because there is zero chance he's available at their pick.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Fun thread.
The WRs aren't getting much love through. If GB were to take Davis or Williams in the first, would anyone consider them with the first pick? There is was caveat in the OP to be "realistic" so I will make a quick rationale for this.
A) Both Williams and Davis (more so Davis) seem to be bouncing around mock draft boards. Add in maybe John Ross taking one of the early spots and maybe one of the two drops. It would require a drop but only within the round.
B) When Jordy went down we saw the offense sputter and Nelson will be 32 before the preseason starts. They have some other guys on their roster but I don't think any are a true #1. Plus, it would be a kind of similar to the Rodgers/Farve idea.
I will concede that it isn't the most likely scenario but I don't think it's completely implausible either. I'm also stretching the "realistic" aspect because these WRs don't seem to even be in the conversation.
The WRs aren't getting much love through. If GB were to take Davis or Williams in the first, would anyone consider them with the first pick? There is was caveat in the OP to be "realistic" so I will make a quick rationale for this.
A) Both Williams and Davis (more so Davis) seem to be bouncing around mock draft boards. Add in maybe John Ross taking one of the early spots and maybe one of the two drops. It would require a drop but only within the round.
B) When Jordy went down we saw the offense sputter and Nelson will be 32 before the preseason starts. They have some other guys on their roster but I don't think any are a true #1. Plus, it would be a kind of similar to the Rodgers/Farve idea.
I will concede that it isn't the most likely scenario but I don't think it's completely implausible either. I'm also stretching the "realistic" aspect because these WRs don't seem to even be in the conversation.
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Spike
Footballguy
In regard to Fournette, do you think the Colts o-line is good enough to have this be the ideal situation?
I would think any of the RBs to the Packers would be fantasy gold; maybe with McCaffery being the best.
No around here they are not and I disagree with the reasoning that Davis and Williams don't compare to the elite WR's to come out of the past seasons as the reason. For sure like both a lot more than any WR from last years draft(pre-draft of course). Most people whose opinion I respect have one or both of these WR's in their top 10 overall players, which is impressive this season considering how strong the draft is on the defensive side.
In another thread on this site, the Fantasy Prospect 2017 thread I believe, someone posted two recent expert mocks and they went Davis/Fournette and Fournette/Davis at top two spots. So I think it's certainly possible a WR goes 1.1 but I think the odds are greater the top WR goes 2 or 3 for these main reasons.
First one is with so many prime RB's to choose from it's highly likely at least one of them lands in a situation someone is going to find them to attractive to pass. Maybe some don't like the Colts, Packers, Tampa or Eagles landing spot as much as others but chances are pretty strong an upper tier back is going to land in a strong enough spot to make them extremely coveted at 1.1.
The other situation at play is need. In 4 different leagues I have picks 3,4,5 and 6 and in another league I have picks 1-6 but that one is not relevant. The other 4 leagues I have picks in 3-6 range I have a higher pick in all but the league I have pick 4 and what I did in all of those leagues was look at the rosters of what totaled 11 teams that had picks before my picks in 3-6 range. My opinion was that all 11 of those teams had a greater RB need than WR need and most not close.
To me when you combine these two situations with the strong year that some elite RB's just had this season which seems to have propped back up RB value it just seems a lot more likely a RB goes first. Here are some situations, not really draft related, where I can see a WR or even a TE go 1.1.
I don't think the Saints will pick OJ Howard at 1.11 but if they did I would absolutely consider him at 1.1 in a FFPC 1.5 PPR TE premium type league. That is the only logical situation I could even dream of using a top pick on a TE and it still would only be a consideration relative to how rest of NFL draft went.
Teams like some of my teams that have multiple first round picks in the top of the round I can see being much more likely to grab a WR high. So like I got picks 1 and 3 in a league where I'm one of few teams were my WR need is as big or bigger than my RB need. So if I don't move a pick and I got two or more RB's basically dead even and one WR clearly head and shoulders above the rest and higher rated than my third RB it's likely I'd take a WR at 1.1 and pick up my RB at 3. Considering there are two WR's most people put in a upper tier I can see a lot teams with multiple high first round picks looking at similar strategies.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Frank Gore has been been averaged about 1300 total yards from scrimmage and 7.5 touchdowns a year behind that line, and he is waaaaay past his prime and even in his prime probably wasn't the talent that Fournette is. The real question should be how can people think the line is going to stop Fournette from 1700 + yards from scrimmage and 10+ touchdowns when Gore, at 32 and 33 years of age average 1300 and 7.5
Spike
Footballguy
We're talking "ideal", not "ok/good". I figure Cook, McCaffery and Mixon could do better than the 1000 yards rushing Fournette should get, that all. Never said Fournette will be bad. Also, I don't see Fournette getting much receiving.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
He doesn't have too, Gore only got about 270 yards each year. I think him with Luck would be gold.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Anyone feel foreman is a little overlooked after being held out of the combine? Seems he was talked about in that 1b tier until then, but then looked good at his pro day. Seems like he should rebound.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The whole idea is Fournette is a lot better than 33 year old Frank Gore, not that he will be only as "good" (or maybe "not terrible") as him. So why would we expect him to just put up the same as Gore? If an over the hill RB can run for 1000 yards, I would think Fournette can run for a lot more.
The receiving thing is weird to see. People act like a "two down RB" is going to catch 4 passes all year. Adrian Peterson is pretty much the poster boy for this kind of player and he averages 31 receptions per year for his career despite playing for teams that throw a lot fewer passes than Indy. That's just where the NFL is now. If Fournette is the lead RB for the Colts he's going to catch 30+ passes most years on the low end.
And then there are the touchdowns. Gore didn't have as many as we would expect playing in such a good offense but was that over-the-hill Gore or was that the offensive line? Well, Gore got a decent amount of goaline carries, but he only converted 20% of them. Again, Gore or the line? Then we look further and we see that Robert Turbin scored on 60% of his goaline carries. So maybe it was Gore.
If Fournette can convert goaline carries at the same rate as Robert Turbin (Robert Turbin!) then we're looking at 10 TDs just based on Indy's average number of goaline rushes over the last few years. That's not even accounting for him being better at the goaline than Robert Turbin or them running at a higher percentage of the time around the goaline when they have a RB that is better at it.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
If we're talking realistic, I'd be surprised if Fournette makes it past #9. Of the teams in that range, Carolina looks like a pretty good landing spot. They don't want Cam to run it as much and that offense was dynamite in 2015. Could see big numbers for Fournette there.
I keep hearing that Mixon is going to sneak into the late 1st round. Somewhere like Green Bay or New Orleans would put him right in the mix for 1.01.
Speaking of New Orleans, they're a team that needs a pass catcher and could really vault someone up the dynasty ranks. Think about if they took Curtis Samuel at the top of the 2nd round. Or Evan Engram late 1st/early 2nd.
I keep hearing that Mixon is going to sneak into the late 1st round. Somewhere like Green Bay or New Orleans would put him right in the mix for 1.01.
Speaking of New Orleans, they're a team that needs a pass catcher and could really vault someone up the dynasty ranks. Think about if they took Curtis Samuel at the top of the 2nd round. Or Evan Engram late 1st/early 2nd.
