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IDP Rookie Drafts (1 Viewer)

Also, am I right in thinking that your order of ranking is exactly the same as the order the players were drafted in the real NFL draft?

I ask because I don't think that determines value. For example, Tarik Cohen was drafted by Chicago before Marlon Mack (Indianapolis), but I think Mack has somewhat higher dynasty value because he's got ancient Frank Gore in front of him whereas Cohen has got a young stud in Jordan Howard in front of him. 

 
The defensive draft board is a different tab. They're on the same sheet.

And they're not rankings, they're set up by NFL draft order because that was how I looked at 10 years of rookie drafts. If you read any of the writing, you'd understand I think Mack is a mirage that will be over drafted above players who have a much better chance at success. Mack has a 15% chance of producing multiple startable seasons. I'm not touching Mack or Cohen in rookie drafts this year.

 
Your original post says you compiled rookie IDP drafts, but your introduction then proceeds to analyze 10 years worth of rookie drafts from one league you are currently in.  And you seem to have concluded that there's a strong correlation between where they were drafted by the NFL and their success as startable fantasy players?

 
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I'm not even in the league. It was a league you gave me a link to Hank. Compiling rookie draft data from multiple different leagues gets messy really fast as different rules and scoring can dramatically impact where a player get drafted. It also becomes really redundant as different league's drafts would be using the same player pool. So it was more an exercise to see which drafted players produced the most and how to maximize production from a rookie draft. It produced the odds of every drafted player producing multiple startable seasons.

Mack and Samaje Perine are perfect examples. They will both be drafted highly this year because of opportunity. But if you look back at 4th Round RBs, it’s a whole lot of potential with very little production. From 2004-2013, Roy Helu was the only 4th Round RB to produce a top 32 RB season as a rookie and he hasn’t done anything since. Three 4th Round RBs have produced 4 or more useful seasons out of 29 total drafted. The best 4th Round RB drafted was Devonta Freeman in 2014 but the chances of Mack or Perine becoming Freeman are not good.

 
ChicagoArch said:
I'm not even in the league. It was a league you gave me a link to Hank. Compiling rookie draft data from multiple different leagues gets messy really fast as different rules and scoring can dramatically impact where a player get drafted. It also becomes really redundant as different league's drafts would be using the same player pool. So it was more an exercise to see which drafted players produced the most and how to maximize production from a rookie draft. It produced the odds of every drafted player producing multiple startable seasons.

Mack and Samaje Perine are perfect examples. They will both be drafted highly this year because of opportunity. But if you look back at 4th Round RBs, it’s a whole lot of potential with very little production. From 2004-2013, Roy Helu was the only 4th Round RB to produce a top 32 RB season as a rookie and he hasn’t done anything since. Three 4th Round RBs have produced 4 or more useful seasons out of 29 total drafted. The best 4th Round RB drafted was Devonta Freeman in 2014 but the chances of Mack or Perine becoming Freeman are not good.
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Ok, I understand the methodology, but I think you are way overgeneralizing.  You can't just call a guy a 4th round RB and be done with it.  What kind of competition did those 4th rounders you analyzed get drafted into?  How many of them were drafted when there were still a lot of bellcows like AP, LT, CJ2k, Gore, SJax and were doomed from the beginning?  What role are those 4th round RB's performing?  Why did the teams draft them?  Do they need a backup to a bellcow?  Do they need to replace an aging vet?  Do they just need a complinmentary guy to a 2 down thumper like Blount?  Are they looking for a return/special teams impact?  Even looking at this draft:

Samaje Perine  
Tarik Cohen  - 170 lb gadget guy
Joe Williams  - Hyde current bellcow when healthy
Donnel Pumphrey  - 170 lb gadget guy
Jamaal Williams
Wayne Gallman
Marlon Mack

You are doing yourself a huge disservice if you just look at those 7 4th rounders and evaluate them all equally, and that's effectively what you are doing by just using historical NFL draft data like this.

 
You're absolutely right. I am totally overgeneralizing, but at what point does history prove it correct? Here are the 4th round running backs drafted in the last few years:

2016 - Tyler Ervin (complementary role/special teams) Kenneth Dixon (assumed starter) Devontae Booker (complementary role)

2015 - Jeremy Langford (behind Matt Forte) Buck Allen (behind Frank Gore) Mike Davis (complementary role)

2014 - Devonta Freeman (behind Steven Jackson) Andre Williams (complementary role) Ka'Deem Carey (behind Matt Forte) De'Anthony Thomas (special teams) James White (receiving role) Lorenzo Taliaferro (behind Justin Forsett)

2013 - Johnathan Franklin (potential starter) Marcus Lattimore (?)

2012 - Lamar Miller (behind Reggie Bush) Robert Turbin (behind Marshawn Lynch) 

2011 - Roy Helu (potential starter) Kendall Hunger (behind Frank Gore) Delone Carter (behind Joseph Addai) Taiwan Jones (behind Darren McFadden) Bilal Powell (behind Ladainian Tomlinson) Jamie Harper (behind Chris Johnson)

2010 - Joe McKnight (behind Ladainian Tomlinson) 

2009 - Mike Goodson (?) Andre Brown (?) Gartrell Johnson (?)

2008 - Tashard Choice (?)

I look at that list and I see one name I'd really want to have on my roster for more than one season. One name out of 27. So I overgeneralize and say, it's not worth it and I'm going to avoid the mess completely. I'll give up on the chance for the next Devonta Freeman. By the same token, at what point are you ignoring history thinking these guys are going to be useful for fantasy? NFL teams use 4th Round picks on role players. Some role players are useful for fantasy, some aren't.

Here's a list of all the rookie RBs drafted after the 3rd Round who've gone for a 1,000 yards in the last 25 years.

2016 - Jordan Howard (5th)

2012 - Alfred Morris (6th)

2000 - Mike Anderson (6th)

1999 - Olandis Gary (4th)

1995 - Terrell Davis (6th)

1993 - Domanick Williams (4th)

I think someone from the 4th Round this year will be successful and potentially turn into a multi-year starter. I just have no idea who it will be. Gun to my head, I'd say Joe Williams because of Shanahan. But everyone else will say someone else. There's already a ton of love for Perine and Mack. That's fantasy hubris. I'm saying, instead of drafting a RB who's got a 85% chance of being a dud, I'm going to take a 2nd Round LB who has a 50% chance of being a dud. I'm overgeneralizing to create guidelines to maximize my draft picks.

 
ChicagoArch said:
. I'm saying, instead of drafting a RB who's got a 85% chance of being a dud, I'm going to take a 2nd Round LB who has a 50% chance of being a dud. I'm overgeneralizing to create guidelines to maximize my draft picks.
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Well now we're talking.  Without continuing to debate the 85% number, show me the correlation between ADP of these groups.  Maybe I didn't read the right part but I didn't get this from your articles.

 
Hankmoody said:
Well now we're talking.  Without continuing to debate the 85% number, show me the correlation between ADP of these groups.  Maybe I didn't read the right part but I didn't get this from your articles.
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I put it all in the conclusion so you could skip everything else. There's a table with the startable rate of every position/draft group over 20% startable and what round of a rookie draft you can reasonably expect some of those players to drop to. Take it with a grain of salt though, different league scoring/starting lineups would change the draft position. You can use the draft board I set up as a starting point to set your own with your own rankings. I'm just a guy so no one should follow my rankings if I made any.

Other table in the conclusion is just as important. Shows the fluke rate (only one startable season) of every position as well as the startable rate of multi-year starters of every position by 1st year, 2nd year and 3rd year. Makes it easier to know how long to hold onto guys and when it's okay to trade someone away because there's a chance they're a 1-hit wonder.

 
Your argument seems to be that Samaje Perine won't succeed because he's a fourth round pick and fourth round picks rarely flourish as RBs, but the reality is Perine went high in the 4th and very easily could have been taken in the 3rd.

If that had happened would you have taken a different view of him, because there have been plenty of successful 3rd round backs?

I think you should be looking at the fundamental talent of players and their opportunity set first and foremost rather than which round they were drafted in.

 
My argument is that fantasy players sometimes put too much weight on perceived opportunity and perceived talent and they want to outsmart the NFL. It’s fantasy hubris. Every team in the NFL knows more about every prospect than even the most devoted fantasy player and it's not even close. In trying to outsmart the NFL, fantasy owners ignore what a team has committed to a player. It’s impossible for teams to lie or use "coach speak" during the draft. They have to tell the truth.

Perine is the perfect example. NFL teams draft role players in the 4th Round. If a team thinks a player will be a stud, they’ll draft them higher, regardless of where that player is on other teams’ boards. SF drafted CJ Beathard in the 3rd even though most teams gave him a 5th round grade because they wanted him and they didn’t want to risk losing him. ARI drafted Chad Williams in the 3rd round, again with a 5th round grade. If a 4th Rounder becomes a legit starter, great, but if not, there is limited initial investment so teams aren’t overly committed.

You think Perine has talent and opportunity. He was the 9th RB drafted, so 8 other teams wanted an RB and thought someone else was more talented. Even if two or three of those teams were incorrect or wanted a different type of RB, how many useful fantasy RBs do you think come out of an average draft class? (The answer is 5.1) And for opportunity, two years ago, WAS drafted an RB in the 3rd Round. What’s to stop them from drafting another RB next year or the year after? You think even if they draft someone next year, he's going to produce his year because all he has to do is top Rob Kelly, but 6 RBs drafted after the 3rd Round of the NFL draft have rushed for 1,000 yards as rookies in the last 25 years. That's 1 every 4+ years and we had one last year. At some point, you're just ignoring history. I don't know what else to say.

The guidelines I created are just numbers, plain and simple. I didn’t look at any player drafted in terms of opportunity or talent. I didn’t look at situations or roles. I just wanted numbers because they're objective and no personal bias could influence them. They set the priority for my draft order based on how successful previously drafted players have been and the difference between even a 3rd Round RB and a 4th Round RB is substantial. Don't let me stop you from drafting Perine ahead of 3rd Round RBs and 2nd Round WRs. We're dealing with probabilities here. I will freely admit there's a possibility Perine becomes successful but I'm saying it's not very likely.

 
ChicagoArch said:
My argument is that fantasy players sometimes put too much weight on perceived opportunity and perceived talent and they want to outsmart the NFL. It’s fantasy hubris. Every team in the NFL knows more about every prospect than even the most devoted fantasy player and it's not even close. In trying to outsmart the NFL, fantasy owners ignore what a team has committed to a player. It’s impossible for teams to lie or use "coach speak" during the draft. They have to tell the truth.

Perine is the perfect example. NFL teams draft role players in the 4th Round. If a team thinks a player will be a stud, they’ll draft them higher, regardless of where that player is on other teams’ boards. SF drafted CJ Beathard in the 3rd even though most teams gave him a 5th round grade because they wanted him and they didn’t want to risk losing him. ARI drafted Chad Williams in the 3rd round, again with a 5th round grade. If a 4th Rounder becomes a legit starter, great, but if not, there is limited initial investment so teams aren’t overly committed.

You think Perine has talent and opportunity. He was the 9th RB drafted, so 8 other teams wanted an RB and thought someone else was more talented. Even if two or three of those teams were incorrect or wanted a different type of RB, how many useful fantasy RBs do you think come out of an average draft class? (The answer is 5.1) And for opportunity, two years ago, WAS drafted an RB in the 3rd Round. What’s to stop them from drafting another RB next year or the year after? You think even if they draft someone next year, he's going to produce his year because all he has to do is top Rob Kelly, but 6 RBs drafted after the 3rd Round of the NFL draft have rushed for 1,000 yards as rookies in the last 25 years. That's 1 every 4+ years and we had one last year. At some point, you're just ignoring history. I don't know what else to say.

The guidelines I created are just numbers, plain and simple. I didn’t look at any player drafted in terms of opportunity or talent. I didn’t look at situations or roles. I just wanted numbers because they're objective and no personal bias could influence them. They set the priority for my draft order based on how successful previously drafted players have been and the difference between even a 3rd Round RB and a 4th Round RB is substantial. Don't let me stop you from drafting Perine ahead of 3rd Round RBs and 2nd Round WRs. We're dealing with probabilities here. I will freely admit there's a possibility Perine becomes successful but I'm saying it's not very likely.
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Did you include undrafted rookies in your analysis?  If you throw in Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Fred Jackson, LeGarrete Blount, Thomas Rawls, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead, etc. are a few RB's who have went completely undrafted yet made their various impacts on fantasy football. 

 
Men-in-Cleats said:
Did you include undrafted rookies in your analysis?  If you throw in Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Fred Jackson, LeGarrete Blount, Thomas Rawls, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead, etc. are a few RB's who have went completely undrafted yet made their various impacts on fantasy football. 
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I included any UDFA that was drafted in the rookie drafts I looked at. Foster and Blount were included. Holmes and Jackson were before 2004. Rawls was after 2013. Thomas and Woodhead weren't drafted. Drafted UDFAs were actually slightly more successful than drafted 7th Rounders.

 
Just a quick point influenced by behavioural economics. A stock's value is derived not from what it is actually worth, but what people think other people think it is worth.

In the same way, NFL teams do not draft players based purely on how they rank them, or at least not all of them. They draft them where they think is the optimal place they can get them, which in turn is influenced by how they think other teams rank them.

I may have a RB ranked as a 2nd round talent, but if I think I can get him in the 4th because no-one else will take him before there, I'll wait till the 4th.

 
Good stuff.  

Ever since I took Chris Henry (the Titan) over Patrick willis I've decided to take the better talent at lb over offense.  I still won't take DL or DBs high in drafts simply because they're easy to replace. 

But I am seriously contemplating Adams in the 2nd this year, he has too much talent to overlook. 

 
Miro Z said:
Just a quick point influenced by behavioural economics. A stock's value is derived not from what it is actually worth, but what people think other people think it is worth.

In the same way, NFL teams do not draft players based purely on how they rank them, or at least not all of them. They draft them where they think is the optimal place they can get them, which in turn is influenced by how they think other teams rank them.
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This seems like an assertion with no facts to back it up.

 
massraider said:
This seems like an assertion with no facts to back it up.
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There are multiple very serious books written about behavioural economics, which is "a method of economic analysis that applies psychological insights into human behaviour to explain economic decision-making." 

I am making the point that this thinking almost certainly extends to the psychology of making NFL draft picks, about which there is no serious academic analysis.

 
Miro Z said:
There are multiple very serious books written about behavioural economics, which is "a method of economic analysis that applies psychological insights into human behaviour to explain economic decision-making." 

I am making the point that this thinking almost certainly extends to the psychology of making NFL draft picks, about which there is no serious academic analysis.
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I kind of already preemptively responded to this but I guess it was missed. SF traded up to draft CJ Beathard in the 3rd Round. Everyone else seems to have had a 5th Round grade on him. ARI drafted Chad Williams in the 3rd Round, again with everyone else seemingly having a 5th Round grade on him. A team will ignore other team's draft grades to ensure they get the guys they want.

Washington, without a GM, may have decided they really wanted Perine but knew he would last until the 4th so gambled and got him there. Or they may have reset after the 3rd round, looked at who was left on the board and decided Perine was one of the best players left and he was a value at this point. If it's the second scenario, how committed will they be to Perine? When they hire a new GM, how committed will that GM be to Perine? The investment of a 4th Round pick is relatively minor.

 
ChicagoArch said:
I kind of already preemptively responded to this but I guess it was missed. SF traded up to draft CJ Beathard in the 3rd Round. Everyone else seems to have had a 5th Round grade on him. ARI drafted Chad Williams in the 3rd Round, again with everyone else seemingly having a 5th Round grade on him. A team will ignore other team's draft grades to ensure they get the guys they want.

Washington, without a GM, may have decided they really wanted Perine but knew he would last until the 4th so gambled and got him there. Or they may have reset after the 3rd round, looked at who was left on the board and decided Perine was one of the best players left and he was a value at this point. If it's the second scenario, how committed will they be to Perine? When they hire a new GM, how committed will that GM be to Perine? The investment of a 4th Round pick is relatively minor.
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Other teams don't publish their draft grades so there is nothing there to ignore and much of what other teams do let out is misinformation.  If a team has Chad Williams rated as a 3rd rounder then they have to assume that someone else has them rated as a 4th despite the fact that draft analysts have him listed as a 5th. 

As for Perine, the level of commitment to him will be based on his level of production as it is on any pick, you just generally get a slightly longer leash the higher you are drafted because there is generally a higher initial investment in that player.  If you don't produce, there isn't anybody that will keep their commitment to a player for very long. 

 
Miro Z said:
There are multiple very serious books written about behavioural economics, which is "a method of economic analysis that applies psychological insights into human behaviour to explain economic decision-making." 

I am making the point that this thinking almost certainly extends to the psychology of making NFL draft picks, about which there is no serious academic analysis.
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I get you, and I am sure that there are times when NFL teams wait on a guy because they think other teams over-value them.  

But I don't believe that many NFL teams use this as a regular part of drafting.  It would be a fool's errand, thinking you have every other team's take on a player you might like.  There is an element of secrecy that applies here.  

I do know that teams move up in front of another team to get a player.  THAT makes sense.  Team X has heard that Team Y likes Player Z.  That happens all the time.  And I am sure that teams have their own late round guys they are thinking about, that they figure no one else likes much, so they can wait on him.  

But in the example of stocks, everyone has all the info.  What the business is doing, and what people are paying.  This is the same in fantasy drafts.  If you like Jamal Adams, and you have three 2nd round picks, you probably take him with the last one, because he's a safety, and good ones are on the wire.  You take a RB or a LB over him, beccause they have more positional value.  

The NFL doesn't have ADP data (lol) to decide where they value guys.  I know the Raiders were considering Melifonwu with their first round pick.  Conley became availabe because of the allegations, and they took the higher rated player.  Obi was there in the 2nd, and they took him.  Now we KNOW for sure that Melifonwu in the 1st would have been a reach (after all, he was available in the late 2nd), but at the time, if the Raiders had taken Obi in the 1st (he was even mocked there often), no one would have blinked.  

 
Flying Elvis said:
Interesting read. Thanks. Makes me feel pretty solid with my choice to take Jamal Adams over Marlon Mack @ 2.09. lol
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What you can really pull from this as well is that you can flip these 4th-7th round RBs for good value the second you draft them, and probably should.  

 
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