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FredG

2017 first round for 2018 first round - please comment

Question

Got another trade that I might offer up but before I do wanted to run it by the group

Guy in my league in rebuild mode he finished last place last year so unless he hits home runs with hi rookies he will probably be near the bottom again but he has been accumulating first round picks. I'm new in the league so I did not see what and who he traded but he has no real offense talent so either he started with nothing or traded it away.

Here is what I am considering but not sure he will bite. I give my 2017 1.06 for his 2018 1st round + Cameron Meredith. I think it is a no brainer and I would not take it if I were him but he might have rookie fever....

I'm new to dynasty so thought I'd run it by you all.

 It is dynasty PPR, 12 teams, roster 54, Start   QB 1 / RB 1-3 / WR 2-5 / TE 1-4 / PK 1 for 9 total offense + 9 defense    

 My roster  (primary offense players)

QB:   Tyrod, Bradford, Bridgewater, Alex Smith

RB:   Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, Jalen Richard, Prosise, Jacquizz Rodgers

WR: Julio Jones, Willie Snead, Kelvin Benjamin, Decker, Moncrief, Eli Rogers, Perriman, Doctson

TE:  Gronk, Hooper, Swoope, Richard Rodger

Picks: 1.06, 3.06, 5.06, 6.06

Just traded my 2.06 for Doctson with someone else in my league which I believe was a good deal. From everything I read in the various sites the odds of rookie picks panning out are a bit of a crapshoot and better off to trade uncertain picks for players with names and some history. Especially for picks oustide of the first 6-8 picks???

In the case of the 1.06 for the 2018 1st + Meredith I believe I would just be getting Meredith for free though a little delayed gratification on the first rounder.

Thoughts and comments please...

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not a Meredith fan.  I would like the 1.6 pick over that package.  That 2018 pick could be a mid rounder and I value 2017 picks higher than next year considering what is there this year.

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PIcks are a crapshoot as you stated.  I assume you think that the 2018 pick will be better than the 6th pick overall based on that team you are trading with being a last place team with no real players at this point to improve. 

I think the trade is fairly blah although the "expert" consensus seems to think the talent drops off after 1.06.  I think Meredith is fine but nothing to get excited about.  If you don't like the players that will be available at 1.06 then it is no big deal for you to move that pick to next year.....especially if you think it will be a top 3 or 4 pick.     

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Need more info on his roster. 

In comparing the drafts, I think the 1.06 this year is going to be worth more than the 1.06 next year. So if you're just punting to another mid-first, it's not worth it. 

But, I would take the 1.01 next year (Saquon Barkley) over anybody in this class. If you think there's a pretty good chance you can get the 1.01 next year, then I like the deal for you.

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It's a gamble. 1.06 is a very good prospect this year that could help your rb situation or depth to wr which you need. At this point in the offseason I'd rather wait for the NFL draft to have a better gauge for where that first tier will be. 

While trading picks for established players is a good strategy, don't get too crazy shipping off your picks. While 2nd/3rds are a crapshoot, sometimes that shot is Jordan Howard, Hopkins, or Keenan Allen.

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Even if you think he has a low pick next year, don't trade your 1.06.

This is an unusual draft class in that the first tier of players is six deep (in no particular order): Fournette, Cook, Davis, McCaffrey, Mixon, Williams.

In most year the top tier is usually two players max, occasionally three.

If his 2018 1st ends up 1.01 or 1.02, you have a wash. If it is 1.03 or 1.04 it may or may not be even. If it is 1.05 or 1.06 you are probably a loser in the first round pick swap.

Meredith is interesting and I would like to own him in my leagues, but not enough to pull the trigger in a deal like this.

I suggest you keep you pick. Just my :2cents:

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