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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (1 Viewer)

Yeah not sure where the sell high revisionist history is coming from, its like those Sell High threads people start at the beginning of the season and eventually peter out, because people just list everyone that had a good game without taking into account what most reasonable owners would actually pay for a player. And they might as well rename the dynasty trade thread as the Trade Rape thread so pointing to a few solitary examples (that we can't even verify are real) doesn't mean much. As an actual dynasty owner, best offer I ever got was Watkins when he was catching 1 to 2 passes tops from Goff and Hunt was tearing things up. Nobody was trading me Zeke (because I tried to do so.)

Aside from a few posters, most people were pretty reasonable and waiting/hoping to see if he could keep putting up some respectable RB1 numbers after his hot start before they were willing to pay much for him...

 
Buckna said:
Yeah not sure where the sell high revisionist history is coming from, its like those Sell High threads people start at the beginning of the season and eventually peter out, because people just list everyone that had a good game without taking into account what most reasonable owners would actually pay for a player. And they might as well rename the dynasty trade thread as the Trade Rape thread so pointing to a few solitary examples (that we can't even verify are real) doesn't mean much. As an actual dynasty owner, best offer I ever got was Watkins when he was catching 1 to 2 passes tops from Goff and Hunt was tearing things up. Nobody was trading me Zeke (because I tried to do so.)

Aside from a few posters, most people were pretty reasonable and waiting/hoping to see if he could keep putting up some respectable RB1 numbers after his hot start before they were willing to pay much for him...
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Here's a Roto thread talking about his trade value. There are a lot of people in there saying they would not trade Hunt straight up for any other player. Not Zeke, DJ, OBJ, anyone.

Now, that's different than people actually offering those guys and a trade being made, because people generally overvalue what they own. But here's one that supposedly the guy was considering.

Hunt + Chris Carson + J tucker for Zeke + Aj green

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/670891-kareem-hunt-consenus-trade-value/

I just found that thread interesting.

 
kutta said:
Here's a Roto thread talking about his trade value. There are a lot of people in there saying they would not trade Hunt straight up for any other player. Not Zeke, DJ, OBJ, anyone.

Now, that's different than people actually offering those guys and a trade being made, because people generally overvalue what they own. 
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Well at least you are finally seeing this. Sure people were getting carried away with saying they wouldn't trade Hunt for those guys, but that's kind of understandable when he's winning you weeks almost single handidly and looking very good while doing it - but you kept brining up how people were trading away Zeke and Bell for him, which was not true in all but perhaps some very rare cases.

 
Ladies.... Ladies..... knock it off. You're both pretty.

Put your skirts back down and lets talk present/future in here... okay? 

 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Well at least you are finally seeing this. Sure people were getting carried away with saying they wouldn't trade Hunt for those guys, but that's kind of understandable when he's winning you weeks almost single handidly and looking very good while doing it - but you kept brining up how people were trading away Zeke and Bell for him, which was not true in all but perhaps some very rare cases.
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ok

 
kutta said:
Here's a Roto thread talking about his trade value. There are a lot of people in there saying they would not trade Hunt straight up for any other player. Not Zeke, DJ, OBJ, anyone.

Now, that's different than people actually offering those guys and a trade being made, because people generally overvalue what they own. But here's one that supposedly the guy was considering.

Hunt + Chris Carson + J tucker for Zeke + Aj green

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/670891-kareem-hunt-consenus-trade-value/

I just found that thread interesting.
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Not sure what linking a redraft thread has anything to do with dynasty. Especially when more than half the posts in that thread echo the exact same thing as what I said.

 
Hankmoody said:
It is, and your post also relies on it. 
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Actually my post doesn't rely only on what has occurred. It looks forward as well as backwards.

Every owner in dynasty has different priorities and different priorities for different teams they have at any given time. Some may be more willing to sacrifice productivity now for productivity in the future. My focus puts more value on producing now than the future, but even those with a very long term view have to consider the present value in their decisions.

Hindsight isn't even relevant to my point.  I am not saying I would have loved those offers be made to me in September because they would have turned out well, I'm saying it because I would have loved them and accepted them at that moment.  If Hunt were averaging 29.2 PPG right now I would still be saying I would have taken EZE for him in September because I would have with the information we had at that time.  And I would have had no regrets either way if I make a decision that just didn't work out. That happens. 
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I don't think many people were giving Eze for Hunt in early September. Maybe you could have gotten Gurley at that time as there was some unknowns about him. You may have been able to get David Johnson for him after Johnson was injured, sacrificing productivity from Hunt now for better productivity in the future, maybe.

While I wasn't pointing the hindsight comment directly at you, but to everyone I do think your previous post stating that you wish you had sold high in early September seems to ignore that Hunt was a productive player for the first seven games, and if you traded him at that time, you would have been sacrificing that productivity. Posts recently are focused on Hunts recent decline in his productivity, not those first seven weeks, if Hunts productivity had not declined, then there would be no reason to be talking about it, as Hunt would still be a high performing player. No need for popcorn posts and so on. It is only because of Hunts lack of productivity the last 5 weeks that these posts are emerging now.

This could still turn itself around and Hunt become a productive player for the rest of this season, or he could continue to struggle, points I made in my previous post that are not based on hindsight, they are forward thinking. It is also possible, perhaps even likely in my view that Hunt is a more productive player in 2018 than he will end up in 2017. There is historical evidence that shows RB performance improving after their rookie seasons. The rookie season is the lowest performing season of a RBs first six seasons on average. Some RB do have their best season as a rookie, but the majority of them do not. On average it is the 3rd season of a RBs career that is the most productive.

These are reasons to think that Hunt (or any RB) will perform better after their rookie season. The only reason I would not expect that is if the RB rookie season was so good that it would be virtually impossible for subsequent seasons to be better. Elliot is a possible example of that, because his rookie year was so productive.

Not all trades are done with this year or now in mind.  It's a dynasty league and I'm managing for the next 3-4 years.  I'd trade Hunt for EZE or DJ right now, today, even in the league I'm a contender in.  If that left me with a starter problem I'm make another trade to fill that.  Trading for a fill-in like Fitzgerald or Stills is a lot easier than getting a shot at Ezekiel Elliott.
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Thats fine. I agree with you in regards to Eze as I stated earlier in the thread. I would trade Hunt for Gurley without hesitation as well. I most likely would do it for Bell or Johnson also, although I would have to think about that a bit more because of those RB age and possible situation change for them affecting their productivity in 2018 and beyond that. I keep hearing that Carson Palmer may retire. I have to worry about how this may affect Johnson next season. If you are talking about these players 4 seasons from now, so the 2020 season, then you are talking about a 28 year old Bell/Johnson compared to a 26 year old Hunt and that does matter a bit to me.

As far as you making another trade to fill that, it would be difficult and expensive to make a trade that gives you a top 5 RB which Hunt was for the first seven weeks of this season, compared to a RB 3/4 that Hunt has been the last 5 weeks.that could pretty easily replaced. Again its a matter of price. What you are giving up are two different things. Top 5 productivity then to top 40 productivity now. How Hunt performs for the rest of the season I would guess will be somewhere in between those two extremes, but maybe not if KC continues to keep sucking.

 
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Buckna said:
Not sure what linking a redraft thread has anything to do with dynasty. Especially when more than half the posts in that thread echo the exact same thing as what I said.
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At the time suspension of Elliot was looming which matters more in redraft than dynasty, although still does matter for dynasty, just not as much.

While I wouldn't have given Eze for Hunt even with the suspension looming, it was at least worth considering/offering I think because of that. Especially in redraft.

As it turns out Eze wasn't suspended until recently. For awhile there it was looking like the suspension would be pushed off until next year, but it was big news every week that could have caused Eze owners to want to sell.

Now that he is suspended, he has left a hole in owners lineups going into the playoffs.

 
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Buckna said:
Not sure what linking a redraft thread has anything to do with dynasty. Especially when more than half the posts in that thread echo the exact same thing as what I said.
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What makes you think it's not dynasty?

 
Buckna said:
Not sure what linking a redraft thread has anything to do with dynasty. Especially when more than half the posts in that thread echo the exact same thing as what I said.
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Just posting a data point. Take it or leave it. :shrug:

 
Biabreakable said:
Nice article. Good to see Schwartz has taken to writing. He is pretty good at it.
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Agreed - I like his no nonsense approach. He doesn’t speculate on things he can’t know, which is a rabbit hole many writers fall into. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Agreed - I like his no nonsense approach. He doesn’t speculate on things he can’t know, which is a rabbit hole many writers fall into. 
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In the link of the article there is a video of where he is breaking down the zone read options KC is using (this is before they started playing badly).

While these plays were very effective at the beginning of the season, I can see how this play calling can get stale when DC's have a lot of it on tape to study and game plan against.

Confusion on the defense gone, scheme no longer effective.

Andy Reid needs to find some new tricks.

I consider a lot of this stuff to be constraint plays, not bread and butter. What does KC do well as far as basic plays without the misdirection?

 
Biabreakable said:
In the link of the article there is a video of where he is breaking down the zone read options KC is using (this is before they started playing badly).

While these plays were very effective at the beginning of the season, I can see how this play calling can get stale when DC's have a lot of it on tape to study and game plan against.

Confusion on the defense gone, scheme no longer effective.

Andy Reid needs to find some new tricks.

I consider a lot of this stuff to be constraint plays, not bread and butter. What does KC do well as far as basic plays without the misdirection?
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Agree 100% - can’t make running sideways a “regular play”. It just gets stale in a hurry. Doesn’t matter if it’s Hunt or Hill doing it. 

I’ve mentioned how predictable the offense has been at times as well. It’s kind of amazing how a team can be both predictable and employ gadget plays, yet Reid somehow manages to pull it off. 

IMO, a team has to do something consistently well in order to have an effective gadget play.  Play-action is the perfect example - run run run run run and when the D finally sells out to stop the run, play action can be deadly. Some of Reid’s plays are brilliant - but you can’t be all style and no substance. Gotta have that bread & butter offense to work off of. 

Then there’s fundamentals like putting your team in good positions. Makable 3rd downs, Too often Reid opts to take a shot deep on 1nd & 10, then runs his RB sideways on 2nd down, which puts his team in more difficult 3rd and long. 

Or instead of simply going play action he’ll opt for a flea flicker, unecessaroly complicating things. More moving parts, less chance of success. When an offense is clicking go for it - roll that crazy Ish out there. But when an offense is stuggling, maybe simplifying things is helpful. 

IMO chiefs need to get back to the basics. West Coast offense, short passes, 3 yards and a cloud of dust running, and then when that’s working, take some shots or bust out a gadget. The Chiefs O we’ve seen the last few weeks has looked nothing like the Chiefs O they came out of the gate with.

Reid is so effective at getting a defense on their heels then picking them apart. It’s almost like he comes into the game assuming they’re on their heels instead of working to put them there.  

I really hope this team can figure it out by week 15. :doh:  

 
Concept Coop said:
PPR ROS - Hunt or Freeman?
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I'm starting Hunt over Freeman this week, if Hunt does nothing I'm locking in Freeman the rest of the year barring injury. Went from so stacked at RB the beginning of the year to wondering if I even have an RB2 out of these two. Sucks. 

 
Gracchi Bros said:
I'm starting Hunt over Freeman this week, if Hunt does nothing I'm locking in Freeman the rest of the year barring injury. Went from so stacked at RB the beginning of the year to wondering if I even have an RB2 out of these two. Sucks. 
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In one league I started with Cook, Hunt & Montgomery. I was getting 90 from those 3 weekly. 

Life comes at ya fast. ;)  

 
The problem with the zone read is that they intentionally leave a edge defender unblocked and the run action with the RB is often going right into this unblocked defender.

It is the QBs job to read that unblocked defender and decide where to go with the ball. But since they are doing that all the time, the defender can just play the running back on his way to the QB and eliminate both of those options pretty effectively, while also knowing that they have help against the QB in the form of a spy or defender responsible for tracking Smith down if he does keep the ball.

This leaves the only good option left being the shovel pass to the TE or whatever other option they have set up on the play. The defense is looking for that by now also.

I remember when Griffen and Kaepernick had a lot of success with the read option back in 2012. Defenses were not really prepared for it because no NFL team had been using it so much in their offense for a really long time. But in 2013 teams adjusted and have been pretty effective with stopping that kind of thing since. The league copying what other offenses are doing effectively has some zone read option in almost every offenses play book now. Hell Andy Dalton runs it a lot. But no team runs this all game long like it seems that Andy and Smith have been doing.

I dunno, I suppose Tyreek Hill is a bit of the problem too, as he isn't really winning in a traditional way either. In a way it is like their offense has morphed into what the Rams were doing with Austin faking jet sweeps and whatnot every single play. Yeah that worked out well. NOT. Gurley was getting stuffed like a turkey last year with this high school level offense.

They need to just be able to win with some quick slants, inside zone, counter runs and more basic stuff. Use the zone read more sparingly and it can still be effective, but they are over doing it and it sucks because of that.

As far as the offense and Hunt, I think if they just got back to some basic plays a bit more frequently then they could stay on schedule, like HSG is talking about. Set up some easier 3rd down situations to convert and possess the ball. Help out the defense. For fantasy Hunt just needs to get a bit more passing yards than he has been the last couple weeks and he will be useful enough to start each week without killing his owners for having him in the line up. The screen game doesn't really work unless the defense really believes the offense is going to run the ball. You have to run the ball enough to make them believe in that, just like the play action pass.

Andy has been doing this way too long to not know all of these things. WTF?

 
Ok so I am curious if anyone knows the situation with Charcandrick West. I have Hunt along with West as a handcuff since I will be making the playoffs and now see West is out for personal reasons. Any reason to believe this will last more than a week and should we be adding Akeem Hunt now as a a handcuff. I couldn’t find anything as to why he’s out other than personal. Anyone out there that knows what the issue is with West? I know I’ve seen out for personal before and it has ended up being ped or other issue that led to discipline, not saying always but have seen it and so curious what’s up. TIA

 
Biabreakable said:
They need to just be able to win with some quick slants, inside zone, counter runs and more basic stuff. Use the zone read more sparingly and it can still be effective, but they are over doing it and it sucks because of that.

Andy has been doing this way too long to not know all of these things. WTF?
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I've been saying this for awhile. It's aggravating to watch. I think they would be dramatically more successful if they would do some vanilla playcalling a bit more.

I'd also like to see them call more RB screen plays, specifically for Hunt, not just because I own him.  Regardless of whether the run game has been effective or whether they've been calling runs.  I've seen them run a couple flares here and there, but that is a different play than a screen.  Reid has been known for his screen game throughout his career. I can't quantify if they have been running fewer RB screens or not  - perhaps someone here can, but I feel like a couple Hunt screens for chunk gains or more could really open up the offense. 

I'd also like to see Smith dump it off to Hunt as a checkdown.  He has been incredibly hesitant to checkdown lately and ends up doing it too late in the play.  Just my thoughts. 

 
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barackdhouse said:
I've been saying this for awhile. It's aggravating to watch. I think they would be dramatically more successful if they would do some vanilla playcalling a bit more.

I'd also like to see them call more RB screen plays, specifically for Hunt, not just because I own him.  Regardless of whether the run game has been effective or whether they've been calling runs.  I've seen them run a couple flares here and there, but that is a different play than a screen.  Reid has been known for his screen game throughout his career. I can't quantify if they have been running fewer RB screens or not  - perhaps someone here can, but I feel like a couple Hunt screens for chunk gains or more could really open up the offense. 

I'd also like to see Smith dump it off to Hunt as a checkdown.  He has been incredibly hesitant to checkdown lately and ends up doing it too late in the play.  Just my thoughts. 
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Your right that Reid has used the RB screen a lot in his career.

The thing about screen passes though is that you need to make the defense actually think you will run the ball for them to be most effective and catch the defense by surprise. Screens are much less effective when the defense is looking for that.

Doing some basic runs and selling that then opens up the screen game more. He needs to do both.

 
Biabreakable said:
Your right that Reid has used the RB screen a lot in his career.

The thing about screen passes though is that you need to make the defense actually think you will run the ball for them to be most effective and catch the defense by surprise. Screens are much less effective when the defense is looking for that.

Doing some basic runs and selling that then opens up the screen game more. He needs to do both.
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They definitely need to do both. I believe that the passing game can help set up the run when it has been struggling.  Screens work against teams stacked in the box sometimes to the effect of taking a long one to the house.  But even against drop back zone coverage a good screen can pick up solid 1st or 2nd down yardage.  

Mind you I don't think screens are like the magic bullet that is missing for them, but I do find it extremely odd that they haven't been calling them to Hunt.  Or have I just not seen them?  Not talking about dumpoffs or flares.

 
I haven't seen their recent games, so I can't really speak on that. Curious myself. I have just been figuring things out based on peoples comments and the Schwartz article that HSG linked.

Perhaps they have been using West more for the screen game and that kind of role instead of Hunt? Or are they just not doing it at all?

 
https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/week-14-market-share-report-josh-gordons-elite-volume/

The Chargers have been busy inside the 10-yard line over the past four games, as both Melvin Gordon (eight) and Keenan Allen (six) rank in the top-15 in opportunities over that time frame. To put those numbers in perspective, over their past four games, the Chiefs have run THREE total plays inside the 10-yard line — one a piece to Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill. The Chargers are currently implied for a slate-high 26.0 points against the Redskins.

 
barackdhouse said:
They definitely need to do both. I believe that the passing game can help set up the run when it has been struggling.  Screens work against teams stacked in the box sometimes to the effect of taking a long one to the house.  But even against drop back zone coverage a good screen can pick up solid 1st or 2nd down yardage.  

Mind you I don't think screens are like the magic bullet that is missing for them, but I do find it extremely odd that they haven't been calling them to Hunt.  Or have I just not seen them?  Not talking about dumpoffs or flares.
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I don’t recall seeing any last week.

 
Do people still feel he is an auto start as even a RB2 anymore?  In PPR he provides a bit more value but still to me he is not a top 20 RB unless the matchup is great. 

 
flipcuplegend said:
Do people still feel he is an auto start as even a RB2 anymore?  In PPR he provides a bit more value but still to me he is not a top 20 RB unless the matchup is great. 
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in dynasty non-ppr, I haven't started him in 4 weeks, but I have Gurley and Gordon. So, no, not an auto-start.

 
Am I an idiot for thinking that Hunt is still a guy who could rise from the ashes of this ####ty playcalling and win people playoff games? You'd think as their season spirals that they'd figure it out eventually, and the schedule does loosen up now...idk. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Am I an idiot for thinking that Hunt is still a guy who could rise from the ashes of this ####ty playcalling and win people playoff games? You'd think as their season spirals that they'd figure it out eventually, and the schedule does loosen up now...idk. 
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His not hit 20 points since week 3 and his high point total over the last 5 weeks is 10.7 and I'm talking PPR. 

But he's still RB7 on the year in average points per game,  his matchup is good and it's the second game with the new playcaller and the first game was a bit hard to gauge since they ran to few snaps because they just kept breaking off huge chunk plays.

I got him on a lot of the national type contest teams and his performance of late it's hard to justify starting him over solid options and I'm talking about stuff like Alson, D Adams, Hunter Henry(TE premium) and  McCaffrey. But at the same time I'm scared to bench him especially in that format because of his theoretical big game potential. I really don't know what to do, super confused.

 
menobrown said:
His not hit 20 points since week 3 and his high point total over the last 5 weeks is 10.7 and I'm talking PPR. 

But he's still RB7 on the year in average points per game,  his matchup is good and it's the second game with the new playcaller and the first game was a bit hard to gauge since they ran to few snaps because they just kept breaking off huge chunk plays.

I got him on a lot of the national type contest teams and his performance of late it's hard to justify starting him over solid options and I'm talking about stuff like Alson, D Adams, Hunter Henry(TE premium) and  McCaffrey. But at the same time I'm scared to bench him especially in that format because of his theoretical big game potential. I really don't know what to do, super confused.
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Exactly where I am...gonna go for it because I think I need the upside, and my other options aren't very good anyways

 
I'm in a "great" position of needing all boom. Winning isn't enough, I need to have a top half high score as well so I have to start all my boom/bust players and hope for the best. Kareem qualifies.

 
Here’s a scary stat. The last td scored by a Chief rb this year was West in week 5 against the Texans. He had two receiving tds in the red zone while Hunt watched from the sideline. From what I’ve witnessed over the last 8 weeks is Hunt hasn’t even seen the field or a gadget play was run inside the 20. I fortunately have a bye this week but need to protect a point lead that’s dwindled. I currently have Freeman, Fournette and Bernard(flex) starting ahead of him IF Mixon is out. If Mixon plays I may start Fitz in the flex. He has been absolutely maddening to own since week 6-7 for me. 

 
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kornbred said:
Here’s a scary stat. The last td scored by a Chief rb this year was West in week 5 against the Texans. He had two receiving tds in the red zone while Hunt watched from the sideline. From what I’ve witnessed over the last 8 weeks is Hunt hasn’t even seen the field or a gadget play was run inside the 20. I fortunately have a bye this week but need to protect a point lead that’s dwindled. I currently have Freeman, Fournette and Bernard(flex) starting ahead of him IF Mixon is out. If Mixon plays I may start Fitz in the flex. He has been absolutely maddening to own since week 6-7 for me. 
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You've gotta start Bernard now - I am at least over him.  The fact a KC RB hasn't scored since week 5 is a ridiculous stat.  Raiders run D has been better with Bowman but I guess it comes down to starting other options like Jamal Williams or Mike Davis over him.

 
joey said:
not even a moment of pause for me if I had both Fornette and Hunt. It's the former ALL THE WAY. Even with his gimpy ankle, Fournette has been performing.
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Sort of. Only one td and one good yardage total in the last four weeks for LF. Plus he faces Seattle this week.

Still better than Hunt but he has Oakland.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Sort of. Only one td and one good yardage total in the last four weeks for LF. Plus he faces Seattle this week.

Still better than Hunt but he has Oakland.
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and last week he had the Jets and didn't do anything.

Hunt is at the point where he has to blow up on my bench before he gets another start. That simple.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Sort of. Only one td and one good yardage total in the last four weeks for LF. Plus he faces Seattle this week.

Still better than Hunt but he has Oakland.
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I looked at my league results.  I blew up the first 5 weeks of the season because of the Chiefs (I have Hunt/Hill).  Then my team went through a lull when, you guessed it, the Chiefs faltered.  But here's the deal--I've got other guys, but they're... other guys.  It's time to dance with the girl you brung.  If Hunt/Hill fail me, then it wasn't meant to be.  But I'm not going to sit them in the playoffs and hope for guys I drafted later/picked up off the waiver wire to ride to the rescue.  It's put up or shut up time.  They will probably shut up... but I'm going down with my best players--Hill/Hunt--playing a fat matchup (OAK's defense).

 
kornbred said:
Here’s a scary stat. The last td scored by a Chief rb this year was West in week 5 against the Texans. He had two receiving tds in the red zone while Hunt watched from the sideline. From what I’ve witnessed over the last 8 weeks is Hunt hasn’t even seen the field or a gadget play was run inside the 20. I fortunately have a bye this week but need to protect a point lead that’s dwindled. I currently have Freeman, Fournette and Bernard(flex) starting ahead of him IF Mixon is out. If Mixon plays I may start Fitz in the flex. He has been absolutely maddening to own since week 6-7 for me. 
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Your points race continues through playoffs? Almost all end after the regular season. 

 
ATB said:
Your points race continues through playoffs? Almost all end after the regular season. 
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Some leagues use total points for prizes or pairings/tie breakers even after the regular season.

Might be the case here, I dunno. I think most do their tie breakers after the regular season though.

I like leagues with total points though, especially dynasty leagues, as this gives incentives for teams eliminated to keep playing their best players.

 
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