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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
how on earth was he clearly the guy, when KC moved up in the third round to select Hunt?Chaka said:
Chaka
Footballguy
I think people put a little too much stock in 3rd round draft capital. Drafting Hunt was as much an indictment on West as anything.
Ware was the clear starter going into last year, and I don't recall Andy Reid saying otherwise.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Winning the rushing title has not been a good predictor of following year success.Buckna said:Yeah, I question if the guy who led the league in rushing last year is the best back on his own team too.
The 10 years prior to hunt, the rushing title winners averaged 1700 yards. Hunt only had 1327.
Not one of those rushing title winners improved on their numbers the following year averaged 848. Less than half the year before.
There are different reasons. Zeke got suspended. Murray changed teams. Peterson got hurt one of the years. So did mjd. Tomlinson won the rushing title in back to back years but dropped from 1800 to 1400 yards.
But that's the point. Even great running backs suffered setbacks after their best years. It takes a lot of good luck to win a rushing title, and it's hard to repeat that good luck, good health, good schedule, wear and tear on the body, coach deciding not to give you a rest, changing teammates, etc.
I am not saying I wouldn't take hunt, and I don't think there's some kind of magical curse on these guys, but I wouldn't ignore the possibility of him falling off in year two because he won a rushing title last year.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Huh? Ware was 13th in the league in yards from scrimmage in 2016. He had more yards from scrimmage than Antonio Brown even though he played 1 fewer game. How is that the “definition of JAG”?bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Tau837
Footballguy
Agree that this is the point for Hunt. He had a perfect situation last season. QB Smith had a career year and was elite. Other than Hunt himself, the team only had 2 quality targets in the passing game. Incumbent starting RB was hurt in preseason and out for the year. He had an OC that used him heavily.
Hunt is still the same guy but every one of those surrounding factors has changed. That was the point of my post above.
Not saying Hunt is going to be a bust. But I think his overall performance will slip from what it was last season (RB4).
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
proof you can make stats say anything......he was 16th RB in 2016 via FBG scoring....his ypc was 4.3....generally RBs that don't share touches get a high TOTAL yards count, where as WRs dont get carries thus their total yards volume is generally low in comparison to high touch RBs.....your point is pretty meaningless...as great as he was he didn't break 1k yards rushing that season......JAG...volume player in 2016...…. a 3rd round pick is a decent amount of capital to invest in a position if you feel you have someone special at the spot, which KC didn't feel Ware was.....we will never know how 2017 would of played out due to injury but Im guessing Hunt would of taken over at some point....
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GoBirds
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Since when is 4.3 ypc a jag? That's a good average. And saying he didn't break 1000 yards is a bit misleading. He got 921 rushing yards in 14 games. 33 catches for 447 yards isn't bad either. Being able to run well and catch is valuable.
Also, spending a pick on hunt wasn't necessarily an indictment of ware. The chiefs have added significant running back depth almost every year under Reid, spending a 6th, 3rd, 4th and a 3rd plus bringing in free agents like ware and the two they added this year. .
I don't really have a dog in this fight - I see ware as a high upside backup in case of a hunt injury, but not because I would ever expect to use him if hunt was healthy. It's because he played well and i think he could again if needed.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The only people making up stats here is you. In no world is the 13th highest yard from scrimmage leader in the league the "definition of JAG". No NFL coach is going to say that his starting running back is a JAG because he was the RB16 in fantasy football scoring. Thats a ridiculous statement. In reality football--before Ware got injured--he was one of the top tier running backs in the league. In 2016 when he was the starting running back--he accounted for nearly 30% of his total teams yards--put him 8th in the league.
http://www.footballperspective.com/2016-yards-from-scrimmage-leaders-as-a-percentage-of-team-yfs/
That is not JAG--by any standard--those metrics show that when he was a healthy starting running back--he was one of the best ones in the league. Period.
When you evaluate the potential of a stud rb in fantasy--you have to look at the quality of the backup behind him. Why do you think that David Johnson, Zeke, Gurley, Bell and Saquon are going early? Their backups are dozens of tiers below them when it comes to talent and upside. Look at guys like Mixon and Cook--people are lukewarm on them because they have pretty solid rb's behind them like Latavious and Bernard. I think Hunt will be a very solid RB--but the notion that a healthy Ware is "just a guy" and is nothing for Hunt owners to think about is absurd. People are vastly underestimating how good Ware was before the injury. If he looks good in his first action back--potential Hunt draftees should absolutely take notice. I'm not saying not to draft him--but ignoring Ware as if he's zero to worry about is ridiculous. If he's really healthy and looks good--he could easily be the best or one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.
Tau837
Footballguy
Are you saying the "rookie wall" was the reason for his subpar 7 game stretch in the middle of the season? I've never heard the rookie wall to explain a middle season stretch. Usually it is given as a possible reason for a late season fade.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
what stat did I make up? Either way....Ill gladly take Hunt at the bottom of round1 in any format and Ware is a cheap enough cuff that I don't have to worry about spending an super early pick on him.....
Slider
Footballguy
Yep. His last three weeks when he seemed to be rejuvinated were against some pretty bad teams.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The statement that "Ware is the definition of a JAG" is nothing but an opinion that is brutally false and unsupported by stats. You said it as if it were a fact -when it was actually extraordinarily far from the truth. Look at every stud RB this season and look at their backups. Ware is the backup that was most recently a stud in the NFL--he was legit elite right before he got hurt in the preseason last year. No other starting "bell cow" running back has that breathing down their neck. Mixon and Bernard, and dalvin and latavious are maybe the next closest ones. You painted a picture that completely ignored that fact.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Are the bears playing their starters? From the looks of the boxscore on offense none of the starters are playingWell there he goes...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Calling him a JAG is going too far one way. Calling him elite is going too far the other way.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
As a fantasy player--ware was a low end rb1 high end rb2 the last time he started. As an NFL running back--he was elite in 2016. Like i said--he had the 13 highest yards from scrimmage playing 14 games. Nine of the players above him played more games than him. He accounted for nearly 30% of his teams total yards--which was eighth best in the league. Ware was absolutely an elite NFL player in 2016 as a starter. That is not even close a stretch.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Ware looks a lot more like a one year wonder than the stud you’re trying to make him into. Entering his 6th year in the league he has played in 27 games - 11 more than Hunt did in his rookie year, and had his one good year in 2016 which was substantially less productive than Hunt’s rookie season was. If you watch Hunt run as opposed to Ware, there’s no doubt which one the stud is. KC apparently thinks so too - they converted half his $1.45M salary this year into incentives, reducing his base salary to $725k.
Good luck toting that Ware banner this year. But at least there will be plenty of seats to choose from on the train.
ETA - And I traded to acquire Ware so that I had a Hunt’s handcuff since I already owned Hunt. But I have no doubt that Hunt is my RB1, but I am also comfortable knowing that I’ll get solid production if Hunt goes down. Not Hunt production, but definitely solid.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’ll just disagree - maybe we just define elite differently but I’d imagine you’d be on an island calling Ware an elite RB.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'm not toting the "Ware banner". This is the Kareem Hunt thread. If we are evaluating a guy that is being drafted as a stud fantasy rb--we have to evaluate the dude that is backing him up. The dude backing him up had an elite season and was in line to be the starter over Hunt before he went down with an injury in the pre-season. There are people in here that are glazing over the fact that he was one of the best rb's in football the year that he was a starter and calling him things like the definition of "JAG". That is not objective nor is it accurate. I'm just pointing that out. I should be able to do that without being called a person that "totes the Ware banner". He's not the zero that many of the people here are making him out to be. That's all.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Ware is definitely a jag. Ufa, cut by the team that picked him up originally. Reid makes RBs look good and that’s about what I’d say. The idea that he’s going to cut into Hunts share this year is strange. I’m really surprised how far he’s falling.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
And there is one guy trying to turn one good season out of 5 in the nfl as some kind of indicator of an elite RB. He’s a 6th year RB who had one very good season so far, and has shown very little other than that. And his one good season was still significantly less productive than Hunt’s rookie year.
He’s a legit threat to get Hunt some rest during games right now. As a Hunt owner I like that a lot.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
JAGs aren’t zeros. They are the predominant number of members on all teams, and they give the teams solid production when called upon - sometimes as starters for the entire year. If you want others to quit with hyperbole, I suggest that you do the same.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think his slide down to the bottom of round1 has more to do with the QB switch to Mahomes than Ware.....
jm192
Footballguy
I keep thinking of Brian Westbrook back when Reid was with the eagles. I think Hunt could be in line for more catches this year. I think he's underrated this year. If Mahommes can deliver on the promise of the bigger arm then Hunt will have more room to work. Today's pre-season game gives me optomism that he's at least competent. He'll have some turnovers, but the Chiefs offense will move the chains. Hunt's going to play a central role. Big year incoming.
matuski
Footballguy
Which is weird because this is what held him higher in my personal ranking.
Mahomes is going to be blitzed, Hunt is going to get a TON of those dump offs.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
People don't like Hunt because he was essentially free last year and dropped a 40 burger on them the first week of the season. <---- me
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Hunt got 86% of KC's RB carries last year. I don't think it happens again. If he only gets 75% (which is still a lot) he only ends with 235 carries (in 15 games) and it pushes him out side the first round for me. He is in a tier with Cook, Freeman, Howard on my board.
Hunt is probably going to score a lot of TD's this year but it is hard to ignore the fact the Chiefs seem to really want to avoid throwing him the ball. Spencer Ware is the clear 3rd down/hurryup back and at the end of the first half in hurry up mode they actually put Damien Williams in ahead of Hunt when Ware needed a breather. As bad as the Chiefs D is, there are going to be weeks where they are playing catch up in the 2nd half and it doesn't look like Hunt will be part of that.
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Will things regress to this outcome or continue away from Hunt getting any looks in the passing game?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
This sounds like Reid prefers Ware and Williams blocking over Hunt if that is the case.
I don’t know about anyone else but I was encouraged by today’s game. Looks explosive and was involved in passing game nicely even after dropping the check down that had about forty yards of real estate in front of him. Could have easily been a 100 receiving and td game. And he was given chances to have two more rushing tds.
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Fever in the Funkhouse
Footballguy
In addition, Hunt doesn’t seem to be tackled for a loss much, which keeps the offense in good down&distance, and on the field.
Sure, Hunt’s been off the field when it’s clear the Chiefs want to pass (a lot), but Ware isn’t getting a ton of touches in those situations. Hunt is a key piece for this offense and it will mean good, steady stats ROS.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
flapgreen
Footballguy
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Not to make this a wdis but what kind of return have you gotten or are you looking for? Hunt owner who loved last night but weeks 1-3 have me wondering if it’s time to cash in.
*this is dynasty
*this is dynasty
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The thing with Andy Reid is a double edged sword.
Historically Rb in Reids offense have been very good. But there will also be times where he forgets to use them.
The defense is going to keep them passing.
I wouldn't be looking to trade Hunt away unless I was getting Star caliber player in return.
Historically Rb in Reids offense have been very good. But there will also be times where he forgets to use them.
The defense is going to keep them passing.
I wouldn't be looking to trade Hunt away unless I was getting Star caliber player in return.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I've always been big on Hunt and as such am likewise heavily invested in him.
The good news is he still looks like a stud out there. Several of those plays he picked up an extra 10-30 yards when it looked like there was nowhere to go.
The bad news is all situational, even in a game where he put up big fantasy numbers. The biggest problems is that Andy Reid finally has another QB who can actually string together a good game when he forgets about his stud RB. He's not getting punished for ignoring the run like he did last year even with Alex Smith playing pretty well in spurts. Last night at the end of the 3rd quarter Hunt was averaging 6.5ypc while Mahomes was averaging only 5ypa yet they had 29 passes to 16 rushes at that point. They still came back and won so didn't have to pay for it.
The other bad news is that Reid gets so damned cute down by the goaline. They rarely just line up under center and pound it up the middle. There is always some reverse or shovel pass or TE screen action going on from the 1 yard line.
And lastly, while I don't have any numbers on this (would love if there were some way to look it up) it seems like Hunt is a much better runner when the QB is lined up under center rather than in shotgun, but Mahomes almost always lines up in shotgun.
In redraft I'd probably be looking to sell off the back of this big game. In dynasty I still like the talent too much to move him.
The good news is he still looks like a stud out there. Several of those plays he picked up an extra 10-30 yards when it looked like there was nowhere to go.
The bad news is all situational, even in a game where he put up big fantasy numbers. The biggest problems is that Andy Reid finally has another QB who can actually string together a good game when he forgets about his stud RB. He's not getting punished for ignoring the run like he did last year even with Alex Smith playing pretty well in spurts. Last night at the end of the 3rd quarter Hunt was averaging 6.5ypc while Mahomes was averaging only 5ypa yet they had 29 passes to 16 rushes at that point. They still came back and won so didn't have to pay for it.
The other bad news is that Reid gets so damned cute down by the goaline. They rarely just line up under center and pound it up the middle. There is always some reverse or shovel pass or TE screen action going on from the 1 yard line.
And lastly, while I don't have any numbers on this (would love if there were some way to look it up) it seems like Hunt is a much better runner when the QB is lined up under center rather than in shotgun, but Mahomes almost always lines up in shotgun.
In redraft I'd probably be looking to sell off the back of this big game. In dynasty I still like the talent too much to move him.
