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Biabreakable

Dynasty Kareem Hunt Cleveland Browns

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45 minutes ago, Chaka said:

The Chiefs sure used the heck out of him on that drive.  He looked pretty good IMO. I thought he may have missed some yards on two of his first three rushes where it looked like there were big holes on the left side of the o-line but I like the way he lowers his pad level as he hits the pile and he seems to carry the ball very securely.  Solid stiff arm too.

Hunt is a pretty solid all around player. When I watch RB I focus a lot of attention on their ability to make defenders miss, and their elusiveness. Hunt has some good moves that for me is a lot of fun to watch. I recall EBF seeing Hunt as a powerful RB, which I don't think is his best asset but he has that too. Just tells me that Hunt has a good overall skill set that different people see different traits that stand out about him.

As far as these evaluations of vision and if RB are missing opportunities goes, I think that is really important and something we should be looking for in all of these players. I appreciate these criticisms and I hope people will keep looking for things like this. If Trent Richardson taught us anything, it is the importance of vision and reading the right holes and assignments. At the same time I think it is something difficult to evaluate as we don't necessarily know the play call or what the reads are for the RB on many of these plays, how they are being coached to read the blocking. I think some of these criticisms are a bit harsh, or at times even inaccurate.  As Big Tex pointed out recently, with the benefit of hindsight one could find missed opportunities for any RB. They have to make decisions quickly and they don't always make the right ones. It is not my intent to disuade anyone from these criticisms, I hope people keep looking at this and commenting if they think the player has missed a hole, or should be more patient and so on. 

At the same time II think critics should realize that these guys are rookies getting their first taste of NFL speed. You should expect some jitters and mistakes made by them as they get used to their linemen and how defenses are attacking their plays. These are teaching opportunities that coaches don't have until there are actually games played. It's a process

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Sucks for Ware owners but this is exciting news for Hunt as Ware was going to always force an RBBC. Hunt will be a fantasy stud getting the lions share of carries.

Edited by ponchsox

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Spiller as the #3 guy for sure unless he proves washed up.  Wow, that says I don't know ..it about Spiller right now.

 

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Doesn't sound like Ware is hurt bad, he could be ready for week 1. 

Edited by Ojaays

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4 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Only watched tonight game but his vision looks very questionable 

He only missed one hole on that draw play that I saw. DId you see other examples of poor vision besides this?

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22 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Only watched tonight game but his vision looks very questionable 

One of his positives. Questionable athletics is more on the negative side.

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12 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

where are you seeing this?

This was from ESPN.

Schefter that Ware suffered a PCL injury, but he will undergo an MRI on Saturday to determine extent of the injury and how much time he will miss. The timetable could be as little as two weeks and as many as eight, per the source, who added that Ware's ACL is thought to be fine.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

When they carted him off, he didn't look like a guy that tore his ACL.

Solid analysis here. What does a guy look like that tore his ACL?

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21 minutes ago, KingPrawn said:

Solid analysis here. What does a guy look like that tore his ACL?

You'll see. He had the look of a guy that knew the injury was not that bad.

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2 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

So how far are people bumping hunt up?

Jump up to Abdullah territory? Or higher with the Mixon tier?

All depends on the MRI result. 

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29 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

All depends on the MRI result. 

yeah, if its just PCL strain / out 2-6 weeks I'm downgrading all KC RBs for uncertainty.

more importantly, it looks like Hunt lacks vision to see wide open running lanes, and the offense as a whole looked like crap....even with accounting for the fact it was Seattle.

 

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Florio says it's a PCL and the ACL is apparently good.

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25 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

yeah, if its just PCL strain / out 2-6 weeks I'm downgrading all KC RBs for uncertainty.

more importantly, it looks like Hunt lacks vision to see wide open running lanes, and the offense as a whole looked like crap....even with accounting for the fact it was Seattle.

 

Hunt will at least get a couple of weeks as the featured back so if he succeeds he could get a majority of the carries when Ware returns. Week one against New England is a bad matchup though. I can see the Chiefs getting behind early and seeing a lot of West and Spiller in the passing game.

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30 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

more importantly, it looks like Hunt lacks vision to see wide open running lanes, and the offense as a whole looked like crap....even with accounting for the fact it was Seattle.

 

What is the basis of your observation?

He missed one hole that I saw and you are making a statement that suggests this is a bigger problem than one mistake. I haven't seen evidence of that.

#overreactmuch?

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2 hours ago, KingPrawn said:

Solid analysis here. What does a guy look like that tore his ACL?

Where is moderated when you need him?

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Maybe the people who have watched Kareem Hunt are blind?

Lance Zierlein

Quote

Runs with good vision and overall instincts

Charles Goldman

Quote

Two traits in particular stand out as elite amongst the group of tools Hunt has to work with are his vision and his balance. 

KelceKrazies

Quote

Vision - Hunt has impeccable vision for not only finding small creases but cutback lanes multiple gaps away

Alexander Haynes

Quote

There is little doubt that Kareem Hunt’s vision is incredible – it is not only vision, but foresight into defenders. He reads hips and eye angles like few other running backs do

I could go on with many more examples of people calling Hunts vision (and balance) a strength of his game. From what I have watched of him in college I agree with this observation.

Always possible I have missed some examples of Hunt not seeing running lanes. I have only seen one example of that on the draw play last night. He missed that.

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

You'll see. He had the look of a guy that knew the injury was not that bad.

Edgerrin James walked off the field  when he tore his ACL....just sayin'.  Today's MRI will tell the story. 

Edited by JohnnyU
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So much for semi-sleeper status.

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37 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Edgerrin James walked off the field  when he tore his ACL....just sayin'.  Today's MRI will tell the story. 

Olandis Gary played a quarter after tearing his ACL

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14 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

He only missed one hole on that draw play that I saw. DId you see other examples of poor vision besides this?

I noticed 3 when I watched the game and the draw play was one of them. I'll have to rewatch again. 

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1 minute ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I noticed 3 when I watched the game and the draw play was one of them. I'll have to rewatch again. 

Okay.

I did watch the replay on youtube last night but didn't notice anything else.

Maybe there is an everyplay cliip for him. I will look.

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I'm looking back at my snaps/utilization chart and there really wasn't much of a timeshare between Ware/West before Ware had to miss time due to a concussion and even after he came back.

When Ware came back week 10 the Ware/West utilization splits were 16/5, 19/3, 19/4, 18/1, 22/2 respectively.

The snap percentage splits were 64/31, 77/19. 48/44, 78/22, 73/24.

Pre-injury the situation was about the same. West didn't do much when given the lead opportunity, I just remember him working on passing downs and eating into Ware's floor.

 

Do we just assume we'll see similar splits between Hunt/West? Hunt is a rookie and hasn't established himself yet so does Reid give deference to the vet? I'm not sure how to project Hunt/where to possibly target him. I feel like rounds 3/4 may be a reach but that's where he's been going.

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I just watched the above (I think this is all of his plays but maybe some are not here) and I did not notice any other vision errors besides the draw play which is the third run on this clip. The hole looks a lot more obvious from the backside view than it does on this side view clip of it.

He does drop the pass at the end of this. It was a difficult catch to make but you could call that a second error on Hunts part from these plays.

Curious if anyone sees anything else? I definitely miss things at times.

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10 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Okay.

I did watch the replay on youtube last night but didn't notice anything else.

Maybe there is an everyplay cliip for him. I will look.

I wanted to add that I'm sure some of this was nerves and him being anxious. 

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16 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

I'm looking back at my snaps/utilization chart and there really wasn't much of a timeshare between Ware/West before Ware had to miss time due to a concussion and even after he came back.

When Ware came back week 10 the Ware/West utilization splits were 16/5, 19/3, 19/4, 18/1, 22/2 respectively.

The snap percentage splits were 64/31, 77/19. 48/44, 78/22, 73/24.

Pre-injury the situation was about the same. West didn't do much when given the lead opportunity, I just remember him working on passing downs and eating into Ware's floor.

 

Do we just assume we'll see similar splits between Hunt/West? Hunt is a rookie and hasn't established himself yet so does Reid give deference to the vet? I'm not sure how to project Hunt/where to possibly target him. I feel like rounds 3/4 may be a reach but that's where he's been going.

Good stuff SSND.

From the evaluation of Andy Reids coaching history (not quite as detailed as what you laid out above) there was not a tendency for RBBC found there much either. Time shares over the season were more due to injuries to players than anything else. I think there was one year where a starter hadn't fully established themselves in there. Would have to go back and look.

Generally I don't think Reid likes to split carries mid game.

Not sure on projections right now as it isn't clear to me how many games Ware might miss at this time.

If he is being drafted in the 3rd or 4th round in todays drafts, maybe that is right, I really am not sure about that yet.

eta - When Est was in there I noticed he was pass blocking a lot. And doing a pretty good job of it. . Based on your numbers above the touch to snap percentage for West isn't as high as it is for Ware, so I would assume he is blocking on a lot of those plays or running routes but wasn't targeted.

Edited by Biabreakable

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3 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I wanted to add that I'm sure some of this was nerves and him being anxious. 

Well if you find some in the clips above, please share your observations.

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52 minutes ago, SameSongNDance said:

I'm not sure how to project Hunt/where to possibly target him. I feel like rounds 3/4 may be a reach but that's where he's been going.

In the Ware thread Faust just posted that Scheftler said Ware will be out 2-8 weeks. He said Reid also named Hunt as the starter.

The Chiefs have a bye in week 10 this year.So if Ware is out for the longer stated time frame, its possible they don't use him until after their bye and that would mean Hunt for the first 10 games.

If Ware is ready to come back sooner than this? The time frame of 2-8 weeks averages 5 weeks Ware would be out. So about half of the 10 possible games if Ware is kept out until after their bye week. Certainly possible Ware is back in week 8 or something and the bye doesn't matter at all as well.

So based on this, one could project two different scenarios, one 5 weeks and one 10 weeks before Ware comes back and West with the starter touches.

I still think Hunt is working on pass protection and as a receiver. There have been positive comments about Hunt in pass protection from the coaches, and Reid naming Hunt as the starter seems like a positive sign as far as that goes as well. But possible that West might get more playing time with Ware out than Hunt would have with Ware healthy. Or higher snap/utilization numbers for West than when Ware was healthy last year from your numbers above.

I am curious to hear what kind of numbers you come up with based on this information. Something I am also pondering over right now.

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23 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

In the Ware thread Faust just posted that Scheftler said Ware will be out 2-8 weeks. He said Reid also named Hunt as the starter.

The Chiefs have a bye in week 10 this year.So if Ware is out for the longer stated time frame, its possible they don't use him until after their bye and that would mean Hunt for the first 10 games.

I don't agree with this. If the high end of the timetable is 8 weeks, that means he would miss the first 7 games. To hold him out until after the bye means him missing 2 more games. I don't see why they would do that unless his recovery goes poorly (i.e., the 8 week top end estimate is notably short). KC is a playoff caliber team that will be in a dogfight all season for their division, a playoff spot, and playoff seeding.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

I don't agree with this. If the high end of the timetable is 8 weeks, that means he would miss the first 7 games. To hold him out until after the bye means him missing 2 more games. I don't see why they would do that unless his recovery goes poorly. KC is a playoff caliber team that will be in a dogfight all season for their division, a playoff spot, and playoff seeding.

Okay.

Just trying to consider contingencies here. I suppose you could have one time line at exactly 8 weeks.

I have just seen a tendency with teams that if a players is close to being back from an injury near the bye week that teams will often err on the side of caution and use that extra week. Maybe 8 weeks isn't close enough to week 10.

I didn't want to do a contingency for every possible outcome was just looking at two different time frames for a range.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Well if you find some in the clips above, please share your observations.

The one run with 3:37 left in the half on their own like 5 he had room to the left. Took it up the gut. I guess it was just the 2 plays. Like I said I chalked them up to nerves really. 

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7 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

The one run with 3:37 left in the half on their own like 5 he had room to the left. Took it up the gut. I guess it was just the 2 plays. Like I said I chalked them up to nerves really. 

The 3rd run in the clip is the one that Dan Fouts called him out on....he has a clear lane to his right...with MAYBE one defender (who is engaged) to beat for a huge run...but he runs straight ahead into a wall of his own linemen.  The mistake is not in running ahead; the mistake is in not pausing to see the lane develop before plowing ahead.

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36 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

The one run with 3:37 left in the half on their own like 5 he had room to the left. Took it up the gut. I guess it was just the 2 plays. Like I said I chalked them up to nerves really. 

Thanks I will give that play a look again.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

In the Ware thread Faust just posted that Scheftler said Ware will be out 2-8 weeks. He said Reid also named Hunt as the starter.

The Chiefs have a bye in week 10 this year.So if Ware is out for the longer stated time frame, its possible they don't use him until after their bye and that would mean Hunt for the first 10 games.

If Ware is ready to come back sooner than this? The time frame of 2-8 weeks averages 5 weeks Ware would be out. So about half of the 10 possible games if Ware is kept out until after their bye week. Certainly possible Ware is back in week 8 or something and the bye doesn't matter at all as well.

So based on this, one could project two different scenarios, one 5 weeks and one 10 weeks before Ware comes back and West with the starter touches.

I still think Hunt is working on pass protection and as a receiver. There have been positive comments about Hunt in pass protection from the coaches, and Reid naming Hunt as the starter seems like a positive sign as far as that goes as well. But possible that West might get more playing time with Ware out than Hunt would have with Ware healthy. Or higher snap/utilization numbers for West than when Ware was healthy last year from your numbers above.

I am curious to hear what kind of numbers you come up with based on this information. Something I am also pondering over right now.

KC and Reid are predictable. They're annually bottom third in passing attempts, middle of the pack in rushing attempts, bottom third in play volume so I think we're afforded the luxury of an accurate projection if we can get the split right.

Over the past 4 years RBs have totaled ~340 carries in a season like clockwork. There's been ~80 targets up for grabs, although that average did seem a little higher when Charles was the lead back for obvious reasons.

To be honest I don't expect Hunt's share to be as heavily skewed towards him as it was for Ware, specifically right out of the gate. I feel like a 2:1 split is the safest bet, maybe even less. I could see Hunt getting 13-15 carries a game and West/Spiller getting 7-9 carries a game. As for targets, I think a lot of that is going to come down to pass protection. I could see Hunt seeing 2-3 targets a game and West seeing 3-4. We probably see West in the hurry up like we did last year.

When I look at it, even if I were to project this over the course of a full season assuming Ware isn't coming back, I still wouldn't take Hunt in the 3rd or 4th round. He should probably be going where Ware was being drafted originally, which is the 5th/6th round. It's very likely that some type of timeshare was always the best case scenario for any RB in this backfield.

For the record, I don't think West is particularly good but I didn't think he was particularly good last year and Reid still used him. And this year he may have even more of an incentive, it's not like Ware is a poor pass catcher/blocker. The jury is still out on Hunt in that regard.

 

Edited by SameSongNDance
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Math


2014 962 total plays 493 passing attempts 420 rushing attempts QB rushing attempts 52 (pro rated missed game) 84 RB targets
2015 955 total plys 473 passing attempts 436 rushing attempts QB rushing attempts 84 67 RB targets
2016 990 total plays 546 passing attempts 412 rushing attempts QB rushing attempts 51 (pro rated missed game)76 RB targets

3 year average 969 total plays 504 passing attempts 423 rushing attempts 62 QB rushing attempts 

361 RB rushing attempts 76 targets

Spencer Ware in 14 games 2016 had 214 rushing attempts 42 targets which pro rating for the 2 missed games is 245 rushing attempts (15.3 per game) 48 targets (3 per game)


Charcandrick West in 15 games 2016 had 88 rushing attempts 34 targets which pro rating for the missed game is 94 rushing attempts (5.9 per game) 34 targets (2.3 per game)

West had 34 targets in 2015 as well with 160 rushing attempts but Ware didn't play in the first 5 games and only started in two. Ware only saw significant action in 3 of these games in 2015 game 10, 11 and 16 anyhow West had the same number of targets in the last two seasons, so that number seems stable.

Assuming that the split will be pretty much the same between Hunt and West as it was between Ware and West last season 15.3 rushing attempts per game and 3 targets per game for Hunt while Ware is out, over 3 time frames. 2 weeks 5 weeks and 10 weeks

Scenario one (2 weeks) 15.3 x 2 = 30.6 + 5.9 x 14 = 82.6 total 113.2 rushing attempts league average 4.2 ypc 475 yards  6 targets + 2.3 x 14 = 32.2 total 38.2 targets 


Scenario two (5 weeks) 15.3 x 5 = 76.5 + 5.9 x 11 = 64.9 total 141 rushing attempts league average 4.2 ypc 594 yards 15 targets + 2.3 x 11 = 25.3 total 40.3 targets


Scenario three (10 weeks) 15.3 x 10 = 153 + 5.9 x 6 = 35.4 total 188.4 rushing attempts league average 4.2 ypc 791 yards 30 targets + 2.3 x 6 = 13.8 total 43.8 targets

Average of these 3 scenarios 147 rushing attempts 588 yards 41 targets (league average 73% for RB) 30 receptions (league average 7 ypr for RB?) 210 yards = 798 total yards not sure about TD 4 or 5 I suppose. 103.8 points in standard (6.5 points per game) 133.8 points in PPR (8.4 points per game)

You coould do the 8 week time frame as I think JWB suggested as well, that would be a bit different. But using the range of these 3 different scenarios I think is fair.

Even in the best case scenario 188 rushing attempts 44 targets 1014 combined yards with 30 receptions 4 TD is 125 points in standard (7.8 points per game) or 155 points in PPR (9.7 points per game) its worth starting but I wouldn't say those are numbers worthy of the 3rd or 4th round of a 12 team draft.

Some of the targets here may be too optimistic as well, just giving Hunt as many as Ware was getting last year.

The above assumes that Ware would relegate Hunt to Wests role upon return from injury, which could happen but isn't a given either. Really depends on how well Hunt is doing I would think. If he is doing well then maybe when Ware comes back there is more of an even split between the two or even Hunt having the majority share after the return. Or if Hunt isn't doing well, then perhaps West gets more action while Ware is out and they try to get Ware back sooner (if possible) because of this.

There are  lot of moving parts here, but yeah I would agree with SSND that 3rd and 4th round seems to rich to take Hunt in my opinion. I would be more comfortable drafting those numbers a bit later than that. such as the 6th round where I was passing Ware. 

Always possible Hunt exceeds these numbers I suppose, the above projected workload (218 touches) is still less than what I think starting RB numbers in the NFL are recently, 220 rushing attempts and 30 receptions (250 touches). Ware was on pace for almost 300 combined touches last season. So the above projection is quite a bit lower than what Ware got last season.

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1 hour ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

The one run with 3:37 left in the half on their own like 5 he had room to the left. Took it up the gut. I guess it was just the 2 plays. Like I said I chalked them up to nerves really. 

Okay so I just spent some time watching this play and looking for what you are talking about. Here is what I see.

Chiefs at the 3 yard line pinned back near their end zone with 3:39 seconds left in the half (28 second mark of the clip) 3 WR left on the far side of the field 1 WR left in the slot shotgun Hunt is to the left slightly behind Smith. The defense lines up with their line to the left side one defender in press against the slot also near the LOS 2 LB balanced behind the defensive line 3 defenders to the right in a triangle against the 3 WR one safety deep and off the screeen. As far as the presnap read goes, the defense is offering 5 defenders against 4 blockers if Hunt runs to the right side. So I don't think the play should go that way into the stregth of the defense.

I am watching the play at quarter speed. I see the lane open up to the left very briefly and the tackle is blocking 55 upright at the time that Smith gives Hunt the ball, Hunt runs forward 55 disengages from his block and was there to fill the hole if Hunt had tried to run to that gap to the left. Because Hunt runs up the middle 55 isn't able to get to him and he runs into the guard briefly before getting to him from behind. The tackle has failed to seal 55 off from the gap. So I am going to disagree with your perspective about this being a hole he missed. The LB filled the hole and would have met Hunt at the LOS if he tries to go this way. It would require him to somehow break a tackle on 55 in the hole, with 3 orther defenders on that side to also support based on the pre snap read of the defense.

Unless you mean Hunt should have taken this play outside the left tackle and run east west 3 yards from their own end zone (I doubt the play call asks him to do this) then he could have tried to get behind the receiver bunch on the left side. But you would have 4 defenders on 3 there. I don't think that would be a good choice as good chance he loses yards on the play if he tries this. What he does do is run up the middle where he has a double team block on the defensive tackle, they have the 3 interior linemen blocking the two defensive tackles giving them a one man advantage in this space. He finds a small crease up the middle and even though two LB are closing on the hole as he crosses the LOS, he has a good head of steam going by then and with good pad level is able to drive forward through contact for an additional 3 yards. The play results in 6 yards gained on 1st and 10 from the 3 which is a successful run. Giving the Chiefs a manageable 2nd down situation and more breathing room from their end zone.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Just to provide some context, our 14 team, non-PPR redraft league drafted today starting at 1pm EST.  Obviously the news was out that Ware was hurt, but no one had reported the "2 to 8 week" timeline yet by the time I drafted him with the 6.4 pick (pick 74). I felt like I reached a round, especially with several "who is that?" comments, but I didn't want to risk him not making it back to me at 7.11 (pick 95). After the Schefter update, I obviously feel even better about it.

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2 hours ago, ldizzle said:

Sounds like Ware has damage to LCL and PCL

Possible out 10 weeks

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11 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

So how far are people bumping hunt up?

Jump up to Abdullah territory? Or higher with the Mixon tier?

Lol. I expected this thread to be on fire about Hunt but I sense some trepidation.

Have only seen a few clips. I mean...is this guy any good? Does he pass the eye test?

See some blurbs saying he should go 3rd or 4th round, but not feeling it at all. 

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12 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Lol. I expected this thread to be on fire about Hunt but I sense some trepidation.

Have only seen a few clips. I mean...is this guy any good? Does he pass the eye test?

See some blurbs saying he should go 3rd or 4th round, but not feeling it at all. 

I'm not sure about his ability but, I think he is probably better than West and I love the way KC uses their lead back. So I'm in.

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