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Dynasty Kareem Hunt Cleveland Browns

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6 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

It could be an indicator, but the Chiefs confidence in him greatly outweighs those concerns for me.

I liked his value prior to this most recent ADP surge, but I do still think there is value as RB12 or lower.

Relatively High floor, high ceiling imho.

 

I get it and I was aggressive in getting him whole the Ware injury was in limbo. I am just trying to think of previous examples of a rookie that was a 2nd day draft pick shooting up draft boards and being taken early 3rd round like this.

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2 hours ago, Keith1 said:

Matt Waldman's article this morning strongly implies that Hunt is NOT particularly proficient in pass-blocking. For what that is worth (for me it is worth quite a bit, as I certainly value Matt's opinion on these matters pretty highly)

Yeah, all due respect to Mr. Waldman (and I respect him lots for his insight) imma go with the Chiefs coaching staff here. 

But no one will really know until the games start. 

And that's next weekend! Woohoo! 

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18 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

It could be an indicator, but the Chiefs confidence in him greatly outweighs those concerns for me.

I liked his value prior to this most recent ADP surge, but I do still think there is value as RB12 or lower.

Relatively High floor, high ceiling imho.

 

At the end of the day though, when your projected starter goes down and you're left with a 3rd round rookie (hardly a throw away pick, but still, third round), and a couple of other "failed" NFL RBs... what are you left to do? You're going to give the ball to the guy who has the most promise and talk about how he's so great and your'e very confident in him.

What do we expect coaches to do in these scenarios? 
"Yeah... we're kind of screwed... Spiller is awful and West has failed in the past... so we're kind of stuck with our third round pick this year as our starter. He's a terrible pass blocker and his athleticism is average at best." 

Get real... coaches are going to talk about how they got a huge steal in round 3 and they have the most confidence in him to lead the way for the season. Why people give "coach confidence" such high weight when it comes to fantasy is beyond me. I've never heard a team talk poorly about the next guy up... it's always optimistic. It has to be. 

 

 

With regards to the second bolded... I would agree to some degree. His ceiling is very intriguing. His floor is not as high as you might think it is. I think 80s hit it on the head:
 

38 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

If Hunt fails it will be because he's a JAG. 
 

We've seen other RBs who are "JAGs" getting high volume due to starters going down. Those players have all the opportunity and volume in the world and failed to produce. So there is no guarantee that his floor is high IMO

Edited by Dr. Dan

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah, all due respect to Mr. Waldman (and I respect him lots for his insight) imma go with the Chiefs coaching staff here. 

Curious, what could the coaching staff have done to give you the opposite impression? Aside from the unrealistic scenario of coming out with a media statement saying how their confidence is lacking in Hunt?

 

My point is, coaches never do this. They always talk about the next man up positively

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Curious, what could the coaching staff have done to give you the opposite impression? Aside from the unrealistic scenario of coming out with a media statement saying how their confidence is lacking in Hunt?

 

My point is, coaches never do this. They always talk about the next man up positively

That's a pretty broad brush generalization  and one i disagree entirely with. 

Here's what the Chiefs could have done:

1. Said his pass blocking needed work. Reid isn't shy about it - he's said it about backs in the past.

2. (And more importantly) gone out and traded for Forte or one of the other RBs on the block.

But they didn't go out and get a RB, nor did they announce a committee. They immediately announced Hunt as the feature back. That speaks volumes about how they feel about his ability to protect the QB. 

 

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To be clear, I'm not anti Hunt. I'm just trying to do my due diligence on him as he is a very hot name right now...


"I like him because the coaches speak highly of him" is not good enough for me. As I've said, I've never seen a coach speak negatively about the next man up to start. So "coach confidence" weighs zero. 

I listened to Mike McCarthy talk very highly of many GB players as they've dealt with their injuries over the last few years, and many of those guys were just awful and didn't even belong on the active roster much less starting. 

 

I hope to grab him because of the potential... but I don't see it as such a lock of a great pick as some may I guess. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That's a pretty broad brush generalization  and one i disagree entirely with. 

Here's what the Chiefs could have done:

1. Said his pass blocking needed work. Reid isn't shy about it - he's said it about backs in the past.

2. (And more importantly) gone out and traded for Forte or one of the other RBs on the block.

But they didn't go out and get a RB, nor did they announce a committee. They immediately announced Hunt as the feature back. That speaks volumes about how they feel about his ability to protect the QB. 

 

True, if we saw kicking the tires with Ryan Matthews, that would be telling. The fact they are staying put is a good sign. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That's a pretty broad brush generalization  and one i disagree entirely with. 

Here's what the Chiefs could have done:

1. Said his pass blocking needed work. Reid isn't shy about it - he's said it about backs in the past.

2. (And more importantly) gone out and traded for Forte or one of the other RBs on the block.

But they didn't go out and get a RB, nor did they announce a committee. They immediately announced Hunt as the feature back. That speaks volumes about how they feel about his ability to protect the QB. 

 

Do you have an example? I can't think of any. It's always "next man up" not "we're screwed... sell your tickets now"

They may not have looked at other RBs out there, but that's not a surprise to me. Veach learned under John Dorsey, who was a GBP head scout under Ted Thompson. The "next man up" philosophy is big in GB and Thompson does not trade draft picks willy nilly. IMO it's a little short sited to not consider that philosophy has trickled down to Veach, and thus to say they could have just traded for a big RB on the market... smart GMs don't panic and do this. Look at MIN last year and how they sold the farm for an average to below average QB...

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I'm a KC homer and I was sold on him as soon as I saw him make a one-handed catch out of the backfield early in camp.   I don't know how to link it, but on Jul 30th Brandon Zenner (@NPNowZenner) tweeted a clip of a few highlights, Hunt is the 2nd play...I was expecting him to be a good runner and push Ware early, but I didn't expect those kind of receiving skills.   I think he really might just be Westbrook 2.0 in this offense.

He may not have the traditional 1,200 yd. rushing stats (although Westbrook did that during his peak years), but the 900 + 50/400 could be norm and that is enticing!  Look at Westbrook's 2008 season - 936/9 + 54/402/5...that is 1,300 total yards, 50+ catches and 14 TDs.  Those Eagles teams didn't have a strong WRs and BW had 355 receptions over his best 5 year span...that is an average of 71. 

I've always felt Ware was JAG, but JAG that fell into a sweet spot and produced when they needed him for the most part.  He had 33/447/2 receiving last year.  The fact that they moved up to draft Hunt speaks volumes to me...he was hand-picked by Reid.

 

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2 minutes ago, B. Nugget said:

I'm a KC homer and I was sold on him as soon as I saw him make a one-handed catch out of the backfield early in camp.   I don't know how to link it, but on Jul 30th Brandon Zenner (@NPNowZenner) tweeted a clip of a few highlights, Hunt is the 2nd play...I was expecting him to be a good runner and push Ware early, but I didn't expect those kind of receiving skills.   I think he really might just be Westbrook 2.0 in this offense.

He may not have the traditional 1,200 yd. rushing stats (although Westbrook did that during his peak years), but the 900 + 50/400 could be norm and that is enticing!  Look at Westbrook's 2008 season - 936/9 + 54/402/5...that is 1,300 total yards, 50+ catches and 14 TDs.  Those Eagles teams didn't have a strong WRs and BW had 355 receptions over his best 5 year span...that is an average of 71. 

I've always felt Ware was JAG, but JAG that fell into a sweet spot and produced when they needed him for the most part.  He had 33/447/2 receiving last year.  The fact that they moved up to draft Hunt speaks volumes to me...he was hand-picked by Reid.

 

This is the biggest reason I'd have confidence in him, surprised no one has mentioned this yet. Thanks for bringing it up. This is an action, not words. Words mean nothing to me. Trading up to get your guy does. 

 

I'd agree about your assessment of Ware... I think he was in a good situation. I was curious about Hunt/Ware splitting time and how that'd play out. Hunt seemed like a good long term replacement. Growing pains at first for sure I'd imagine

Edited by Dr. Dan

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21 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Curious, what could the coaching staff have done to give you the opposite impression? Aside from the unrealistic scenario of coming out with a media statement saying how their confidence is lacking in Hunt?

 

My point is, coaches never do this. They always talk about the next man up positively

They were talking him up prior to the ware injury... huge difference imho.

 

To use several other examples, jamal Williams, Joe Mixon and dontae foreman have not received the same sort of consistent rave reviews and/or confidence that hunt has.  

Edited by TripItUp
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5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

They were talking him up prior to the ware injury... huge difference imho.

 

To use several other examples, jamal Williams, Joe Mixon and dontae foreman have not received the same sort of consistent rave reviews and/or confidence that hunt has.  

This is another reason why I like Hunt more than his profile might suggest- before the Ware injury, Hunt was getting a lot of work with the first team. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

This is certainly no replacement for Decker since he appears to be one of the better young LT prospects in the NFL, but Greg Robinson has potentially turned a corner. He has been pretty good so far in preseason. We all know he's as talented as any LT out there, but it now seems like he might be ready to use those gifts to at least be an average NFL starter. 

Oh I missed that they got Robinson.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is the biggest reason I'd have confidence in him, surprised no one has mentioned this yet. Thanks for bringing it up. This is an action, not words. Words mean nothing to me. Trading up to get your guy does. 

 

I'd agree about your assessment of Ware... I think he was in a good situation. I was curious about Hunt/Ware splitting time and how that'd play out. Hunt seemed like a good long term replacement. Growing pains at first for sure I'd imagine

It was mentioned a few pages back. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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1 minute ago, RalphMouth said:

so.... if you draft Hunt should you handcuff Charcandrick West with your last pick of the draft ?

In most leagues I would.

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18 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

They were talking him up prior to the ware injury... huge difference imho.

 

To use several other examples, jamal Williams, Joe Mixon and dontae foreman have not received the same sort of consistent rave reviews and/or confidence that hunt has.  

I remember Reid being cautious with comments about Chandarick West, too when West was thrust into a brief stint as a lead back. 

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26 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

They were talking him up prior to the ware injury... huge difference imho.

 

To use several other examples, jamal Williams, Joe Mixon and dontae foreman have not received the same sort of consistent rave reviews and/or confidence that hunt has.  

But none of them are the projected starter. If Montgomery went down what do you think MM would say? Mixon has received all kinds of rave since they drafted him, to justify drafting him. 
Foreman sucks... he won't get rave reviews

But yes, they were speaking highly of him before the injury

Edited by Dr. Dan

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I wonder what Waldman and others would say if they saw the 4th down play from the CIN game where Hunt's pass blocking took out not 1 but 2 guys and allowed Smith to throw for a first down?  Smith himself as well as coaches cited what a great job that Hunt did on that play and how well he has been doing in pass protection.  

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26 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It wasn't mentioned a few pages back. 

I haven't read pages back, just trying to stay current. My problem, no one else's. Just don't have time to be honest, been crazy busy

18 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I wonder what Waldman and others would say if they saw the 4th down play from the CIN game where Hunt's pass blocking took out not 1 but 2 guys and allowed Smith to throw for a first down?  Smith himself as well as coaches cited what a great job that Hunt did on that play and how well he has been doing in pass protection.  

I did see that play... was pretty nice. 

 

Again, I'm not anti Hunt. Just trying to find his blemishes and over analyze them. I figure if I can be the biggest pessimist over someone I am intrigued over, and then people can "win me over" then I am pretty confident in drafting that particular player. 

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

I did see that play... was pretty nice. 

 

Again, I'm not anti Hunt. Just trying to find his blemishes and over analyze them. I figure if I can be the biggest pessimist over someone I am intrigued over, and then people can "win me over" then I am pretty confident in drafting that particular player. 

 

I think that's healthy skepticism and I like that a lot.  I'm more concerned when someone, especially someone with a lot of following, latches on to one play and projects it as a normal occurence in a players' capacity. 

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Here's some devils advocate questions:

What does Hunt excel at?

What are his strengths?

Who's a good comparison?

 

From what I see, he's pretty good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He's fairly big, but plays small, but he's not quick. He's got some wiggle and avoids big hits, doesnt fumble, but doesnt make guys miss either, and he's not going to run away from anybody. He doesnt run anybody over for extra yards, but he might miss the big hit and fall for extra yards. It makes sense he's a Chief, because he's a mediocre to decent talent that doesnt do anything to inspire. I'd actually compare him to Ware, but less physical.

Ok, tear that apart for me please :)

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Just now, mbuehner said:

Here's some devils advocate questions:

What does Hunt excel at?

What are his strengths?

Who's a good comparison?

 

From what I see, he's pretty good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He's fairly big, but plays small, but he's not quick. He's got some wiggle and avoids big hits, doesnt fumble, but doesnt make guys miss either, and he's not going to run away from anybody. He doesnt run anybody over for extra yards, but he might miss the big hit and fall for extra yards. It makes sense he's a Chief, because he's a mediocre to decent talent that doesnt do anything to inspire. I'd actually compare him to Ware, but less physical.

Ok, tear that apart for me please :)

Based on his playerprofiler page, he's slow and he's not quick. He has above average burst. All in all, a below average athlete for the RB position. His stats seem to indicate he is a very strong pass catcher. 

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2 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Yeah, Hunt's sparq scores were below average.  I think I heard on a podcast 28th percentile. 

Of course, several HOF runningbacks likely didn't have great sparq scores so it's obviously not an end all be all indicator.  

...and on the flip side a few of the SPARQ darlings have been nothing but complete busts.

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42 minutes ago, mbuehner said:

Here's some devils advocate questions:

What does Hunt excel at?

What are his strengths?

Who's a good comparison?

 

From what I see, he's pretty good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He's fairly big, but plays small, but he's not quick. He's got some wiggle and avoids big hits, doesnt fumble, but doesnt make guys miss either, and he's not going to run away from anybody. He doesnt run anybody over for extra yards, but he might miss the big hit and fall for extra yards. It makes sense he's a Chief, because he's a mediocre to decent talent that doesnt do anything to inspire. I'd actually compare him to Ware, but less physical.

Ok, tear that apart for me please :)

You know what he excels at more than anything?  Having next to no competition for touches on a team with a crap QB who can't/won't throw the ball downfield.  

This is RB2 downside with low RB1 upside folks.   

I also think he is JAG.   Can't hold fournette or mixon's jock talent wise.   Be he is in a WAY better situation than both those guys from a FF perspective.

 

Edited by zoonation
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51 minutes ago, mbuehner said:

Here's some devils advocate questions:

What does Hunt excel at?

What are his strengths?

Who's a good comparison?

 

From what I see, he's pretty good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He's fairly big, but plays small, but he's not quick. He's got some wiggle and avoids big hits, doesnt fumble, but doesnt make guys miss either, and he's not going to run away from anybody. He doesnt run anybody over for extra yards, but he might miss the big hit and fall for extra yards. It makes sense he's a Chief, because he's a mediocre to decent talent that doesnt do anything to inspire. I'd actually compare him to Ware, but less physical.

Ok, tear that apart for me please :)

Hunt strengths- inside runniing with good vision, never fumbles, GREAT balance, good quicks and burst, pass protection, and a very good receiver

He is the complete package except for long speed. I see his style as a Rice, Foster, E. Smith kind of runner. Not know for long speed but has great natural running back instincts.

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17 minutes ago, zoonation said:

You know what he excels at more than anything?  Having next to no competition for touches on a team with a crap QB who can't/won't throw the ball downfield.  

This is RB2 downside with low RB1 upside folks.   

I also think he is JAG.   Can't hold fournette or mixon's kick talent wise.   Be he is in a WAY better situation than both those guys from a FF perspective.

 

I dont think theres any question on opportunity, but the old saying goes 'opportunity gets you fired'.  If, talent wise, he's just another guy in that backfield that gets blown up on short yardage plays, yeah he's still got value but its more like RB3 value in that mix of slop tier.

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6 minutes ago, dmac37 said:

Hunt strengths- inside runniing with good vision, never fumbles, GREAT balance, good quicks and burst, pass protection, and a very good receiver

He is the complete package except for long speed. I see his style as a Rice, Foster, E. Smith kind of runner. Not know for long speed but has great natural running back instincts.

To play the other side of the fence- he could be a poor mans Matt Forte without the 5th gear. Slides away from big hits so he doesnt fumble or get hurt, doesnt have many negative yardage plays, versatility in the passing game. 3 down back that is a fixture/safety valve in a short yardage offense. All purpose and PPR no brainer, but wont do as well in TD only and standard leagues. A compiler without the home run (and possibly goal line) love.

Edited by mbuehner

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23 minutes ago, zoonation said:

You know what he excels at more than anything?  Having next to no competition for touches on a team with a crap QB who can't/won't throw the ball downfield.  

This is RB2 downside with low RB1 upside folks.   

I also think he is JAG.   Can't hold fournette or mixon's jock talent wise.   Be he is in a WAY better situation than both those guys from a FF perspective.

 

Could you expand his situation being way better than Fournette's? 

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54 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

...and on the flip side a few of the SPARQ darlings have been nothing but complete busts.

Absolutely. One of the surest signs of a bust is a player with great SPARQ scores but that didn't produce in college or took a long time to produce in college. 

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47 minutes ago, zoonation said:

You know what he excels at more than anything?  Having next to no competition for touches on a team with a crap QB who can't/won't throw the ball downfield.  

This is RB2 downside with low RB1 upside folks.   

I also think he is JAG.   Can't hold fournette or mixon's jock talent wise.   Be he is in a WAY better situation than both those guys from a FF perspective.

 

He hasn't even played a single regugular season game in the NFL and he's already JAG?? 

Guys from blue chip schools crash and burn the same as those from mid-majors. If you'd seen him play at least a few regular-season games and thought that, I'd actually consider the opinion. 

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1 hour ago, mbuehner said:

Here's some devils advocate questions:

What does Hunt excel at?

What are his strengths?

Who's a good comparison?

 

From what I see, he's pretty good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He's fairly big, but plays small, but he's not quick. He's got some wiggle and avoids big hits, doesnt fumble, but doesnt make guys miss either, and he's not going to run away from anybody. He doesnt run anybody over for extra yards, but he might miss the big hit and fall for extra yards. It makes sense he's a Chief, because he's a mediocre to decent talent that doesnt do anything to inspire. I'd actually compare him to Ware, but less physical.

Ok, tear that apart for me please :)

Here are some of my notes on him before the NFL Combine:

*Draftbreakdown had him listed at 6'0 225 so I was watching him with that expectation

Nice cuts, can make people miss on 1v1, pretty fast for a big guy and hits the hole HARD.  Shot out of a cannon type of burst.  Doesn't seem to be very patient and has a flailing type of running style but with good wiggle.  Downhill scheme probably works best and strong.

Now at the combine he actually was listed at 5'10 216 which makes me question the strength he actually had just playing against smaller guys in general vs. the NFL.  And with his speed being "pretty fast for a big guy" doesn't make him fast enough for a smaller back which he turned out to be.  Seems to be reflective in his athletic profile after the combine.  He actually looks a lot like David Wilson to me without the speed.  The speed is what Wilson such a polarizing prospect though so without that Hunt seems destined to a 60-70% workload, max.  There's other guys who don't have the price tag of what is now a 3rd round startup pick, that have the same floor/ceiling as Hunt that you can get in the 6th or later.  I'd sell in a heartbeat if I owned him anywhere.  

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1 hour ago, mbuehner said:

Here's some devils advocate questions:

What does Hunt excel at?

What are his strengths?

Who's a good comparison?

 

From what I see, he's pretty good at a lot of things, but not great at anything. He's fairly big, but plays small, but he's not quick. He's got some wiggle and avoids big hits, doesnt fumble, but doesnt make guys miss either, and he's not going to run away from anybody. He doesnt run anybody over for extra yards, but he might miss the big hit and fall for extra yards. It makes sense he's a Chief, because he's a mediocre to decent talent that doesnt do anything to inspire. I'd actually compare him to Ware, but less physical.

Ok, tear that apart for me please :)

I think all of these things have been discussed already in the thread.

The first post I cited Lance Zierlein's write up of Hunt where he says that Hunt is elusive, has good vision and instincts. Others cite his vision and balance as things that are strong traits he has.

Your argument is one I have heard about a lot of players, that Hunt is good at a lot of things, but this gets turned into him not being great at anything, instead of just seeing the player as having above average traits in many different things. I don't think that is really fair. You could say that about just about any player. It seems like people think a player has to have one trait that stands out above the others or else they will be considered average.

This is how I feel about this perspective :wall:

Not every player is going to be exceptional in one trait while lacking others. A player being above average in a lot of important traits should not mean the player is average, which is basically what your argument, and people agreeing with it since your post seem to think about Hunt.

How does he play small? I don't really see that at all. He runs with good pad level and gains yards after contact. 

He is quick but his burst may only be average when comparing him to other RB who are quicker and faster than Hunt is. 

He has more than some wiggle. I don't think he would be ranked 3rd in missed tackles over the last 3 years by PFF if his elusiveness were only average at doing that. He was much better than average in this category (that is a combination of different traits) by definition (an average RB would be in 100's or so in this category not 3rd).

You then repeat he doesn't make guys miss either, well he does make defenders miss tackles, so I disagree with your second comment stating that he does not do this.

He does not have top end speed for long explosive runs, that is a weakness.

You say he doesn't run over anyone for extra yards. I disagree with this. I have seen him gain yards after contact consistently, even on plays where it looks like he might be stopped dead in his tracks, he finds a way to get extra yards with good pad level and leg strength.

I think your rhetorical argument is an effective one. Just look at the responses of people agreeing with you, even though a lot of what you said about Hunt, I do not think is accurate.You use minimizing language and just plain false statements to make your case.

So a player who is good and above average in many of the traits one is looking for gets turned into a JAG, or not special by your argument, which is akin to being good at nothing, instead of calling it like I think it is, a well rounded player who is above average in many different traits that are important for a RB to be successful.

Lance Zielien compares Hunt to Olandis Gary which supports your view point. 

I think he is better than that. How much better than that I am not sure, but I don't think he is just a guy. I think he has a lot of good abilities. Not every RB has one trait that stands out as better than every other player at their position. 

I am all for erring on the side of caution, especially considering recent developments that sound like Hunt may be being over valued. I think that optimism should be checked by realistic expectations, however your argument has gone too far in the other direction, making it sound like Hunt isn't good at anything, when from my perspective he is good at a lot of things.

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4 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

If Hunt fails it will be because he's a JAG. His athletic profile screams JAG. He had great college production, but it was at Toledo so the quality of the competition is questionable. Actually, he reminds me of another MAC player from this draft. 

Hunt as a true freshman ran for 800 yards and 6 TDs. I don't care what school you are at, that's a great season for a true freshman. As a sophomore, he goes OFF. 8.0 ypc, 1600 yards and 16 TDs. Then he goes nuclear in their bowl game with 271 yards and 5 TDs. Again, I don't care what you school you are at, those are eye popping numbers from a true sophomore. His junior season is a big step back as he gets suspended 2 games, then gets hurt and misses some time. He only finishes with 900 yards and 12 TDs. Finally, his senior year not only does he rebound, he adds a new dimension to his game. Hunt has 1400 yards and 10 TDs, but adds in 41 receptions for 400 yards and a TD. 

The guy he reminds me of is Corey Davis. Hits the ground running as a true freshman, dominates the MAC for their entire career (Hunt had a little bump with his suspension and injury). Davis finished with 5290 yards and 52 TDs. Hunt finished with 5500 yards and 45 TDs. The difference is Corey Davis didn't compete in any of the athletic testing so we really don't know what kind of athlete he is. Hunt did and we know he's nothing special athletically. 

Yet, Hunt had one of the highest elusiveness scores in college football last year. if he is not athletic, then how did that happen?

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7 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think all of these things have been discussed already in the thread.

The first post I cited Lance Zierlein's write up of Hunt where he says that Hunt is elusive, has good vision and instincts. Others cite his vision and balance as things that are strong traits he has.

Your argument is one I have heard about a lot of players, that Hunt is good at a lot of things, but this gets turned into him not being great at anything, instead of just seeing the player as having above average traits in many different things. I don't think that is really fair. You could say that about just about any player. It seems like people think a player has to have one trait that stands out above the others or else they will be considered average.

This is how I feel about this perspective :wall:

Not every player is going to be exceptional in one trait while lacking others. A player being above average in a lot of important traits should not mean the player is average, which is basically what your argument, and people agreeing with it since your post seem to think about Hunt.

How does he play small? I don't really see that at all. He runs with good pad level and gains yards after contact. 

He is quick but his burst may only be average when comparing him to other RB who are quicker and faster than Hunt is. 

He has more than some wiggle. I don't think he would be ranked 3rd in missed tackles over the last 3 years by PFF if his elusiveness were only average at doing that. He was much better than average in this category (that is a combination of different traits) by definition (an average RB would be in 100's or so in this category not 3rd).

You then repeat he doesn't make guys miss either, well he does make defenders miss tackles, so I disagree with your second comment stating that he does not do this.

He does not have top end speed for long explosive runs, that is a weakness.

You say he doesn't run over anyone for extra yards. I disagree with this. I have seen him gain yards after contact consistently, even on plays where it looks like he might be stopped dead in his tracks, he finds a way to get extra yards with good pad level and leg strength.

I think your rhetorical argument is an effective one. Just look at the responses of people agreeing with you, even though a lot of what you said about Hunt, I do not think is accurate.You use minimizing language and just plain false statements to make your case.

So a player who is good and above average in many of the traits one is looking for gets turned into a JAG, or not special by your argument, which is akin to being good at nothing, instead of calling it like I think it is, a well rounded player who is above average in many different traits that are important for a RB to be successful.

Lance Zielien compares Hunt to Olandis Gary which supports your view point. 

I think he is better than that. How much better than that I am not sure, but I don't think he is just a guy. I think he has a lot of good abilities. Not every RB has one trait that stands out as better than every other player at their position. 

I am all for erring on the side of caution, especially considering recent developments that sound like Hunt may be being over valued. I think that optimism should be checked by realistic expectations, however your argument has gone too far in the other direction, making it sound like Hunt isn't good at anything, when from my perspective he is good at a lot of things.

Now hang on, i'm playing devils advocate here. I think he's probably going to be better than JAG, I dont think he's going to be special, but he doesnt need to be special to be a solid or even top end RB2.

I stand by Hunt playing small. Here's a link to a bunch of runs. He's willing to hit the pile, but he doesnt move the pile like a Mashawn Lynch or even a Spencer Ware. He does have a talent for 'leaning' for extra yards, which i pointed out is just as valuable as bull rushing for it. Moreso, because it one less hit getting piled up. Will that translate to goal line work or will he run into the pile and for no gain consistently? i dont know, and i suspect that answer will have huge implications for his value.

http://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2017/08/24/film-study-kareem-hunt-hard-to-tackle-part-ii/2/

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12 minutes ago, buck naked said:

Yet, Hunt had one of the highest elusiveness scores in college football last year. if he is not athletic, then how did that happen?

Elusive score is a misleading name. It's just a measure of yards created and missed tackles forced. You don't have to be an uber athlete to break tackles. 

Also the tests don't seem to account for balance so I think that may be an untested physical skill he has thats potentially above average.

Edited by Ilov80s

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Elusive score is a misleading name. It's just a measure of yards created and missed tackles forced. You don't have to be an uber athlete to break tackles. 

Its also a measure of bad tackling. which there is plenty of in Mid-American.

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4 minutes ago, mbuehner said:

Its also a measure of bad tackling. which there is plenty of in Mid-American.

That is a very logical conclusion to draw. 

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1 hour ago, zoonation said:

You know what he excels at more than anything?  Having next to no competition for touches on a team with a crap QB who can't/won't throw the ball downfield.  

This is RB2 downside with low RB1 upside folks.   

I also think he is JAG.   Can't hold fournette or mixon's jock talent wise.   Be he is in a WAY better situation than both those guys from a FF perspective.

 

I don't know about Fournette but Mixon, yes he's in a better situation than him. I don't know if that automatically puts him at RB2 with RB1 Upside... 

Look at last year...  

 

CJ Anderson went down and Booker became the back with no competition for touches on a team with a crap QB who can't/won't throw the ball downfield.... how did that work out? 

1 hour ago, mbuehner said:

I dont think theres any question on opportunity, but the old saying goes 'opportunity gets you fired'.  If, talent wise, he's just another guy in that backfield that gets blown up on short yardage plays, yeah he's still got value but its more like RB3 value in that mix of slop tier.

Exactly... if he's JAG then if he falters he's no better than the next guy behind him... IMO that means his floor is incredibly low. He could be worthless in 10 weeks. Could be a top 10 RB. If he's JAG, he is likely a RB2/3. If he's actually got talent, and can get receptions, he is a RB2 for sure with RB1 upside. Measurables and scouting reports have me thinking he may be more of JAG than an actual talent. I'll probably still buy but with tempered expectations 

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9 minutes ago, mbuehner said:

Now hang on, i'm playing devils advocate here. I think he's probably going to be better than JAG, I dont think he's going to be special, but he doesnt need to be special to be a solid or even top end RB2.

I stand by Hunt playing small. Here's a link to a bunch of runs. He's willing to hit the pile, but he doesnt move the pile like a Mashawn Lynch or even a Spencer Ware. He does have a talent for 'leaning' for extra yards, which i pointed out is just as valuable as bull rushing for it. Moreso, because it one less hit getting piled up. Will that translate to goal line work or will he run into the pile and for no gain consistently? i dont know, and i suspect that answer will have huge implications for his value.

http://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2017/08/24/film-study-kareem-hunt-hard-to-tackle-part-ii/2/

Yes I know you are just playing devils advocate here and I appreciate that some of the enthusiasm should be met with a wet blanket for perspective.

However I take issue with some of your statements as I detailed above. It makes a strong case, but also ignores some of his best traits in the process of doing so.

What is special?

Not everyone can be Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell special in traits. Does that mean that they are not good players?

Hunt isn't as powerful moving a pile as Leonard Fournette, or maybe even Ware or Lynch as you say. He is powerful though and generates yards after contact.

We don't know if he will get goal line looks but I would assume he will over giving those opportunities to West. So I think he will get those opportunities for KC this season.

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Its a good question, what does special mean. To some extent, theres a 'I know it when I see it' factor, but thats hardly fair.

So- top end speed, if you can run away from defenders, you have the homerun potential.

Raw power- if you can blow up the pile even with the box stacked against you, you're going to score touchdowns.

Some combination of elusiveness, vision, explosiveness, and ability to break tackles. Thats hard to define, because its really more than a sum of its parts, and different guys can excel at different facets. But i think you have to be great at some of those to be great. Being very good at all of them doesnt get you there.

ELITE quickness, hands, and vision in the passing game (Sproles at his best) could get you there.

Anyway, those are the things I look for. Rookies are tough, most everybody looks special on the college highlight reels, thats why they were drafted. Trying to figure out if that will translate means looking for things they are great at, because the things they are just good at make them average in the NFL, at best.

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9 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

https://youtu.be/w4vZ6llA35M

Here he is being elusive against an SEC defense. 15 carries, 149 yards vs Missouri as a sophomore.

Those holes are enormous! Good for Toledo.

*Hunt does show some nice open field moves for sure.

Edited by mbuehner

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Hunt has done quite a few things in training camp and in the preseason that lead one to his being more than JAG.  The one handed catch, the blocked punt recovery, the moving of piles foward, the burst through a skinny seam, his stringing moves together in the open field, his stiff arm, his taking out 2 rushers in pass protection.

Eventually you have to start summing up all of his plays to date and start to recognize that he's got some serious game to him.  Sure, you will get some rookie mistakes.  Even the very best in the game make mistakes at times.  But JAG type players don't have the ability to put together an amalgam of "wow" plays that sum up to the potential to be a very good player.

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46 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Hunt has done quite a few things in training camp and in the preseason that lead one to his being more than JAG. The one handed catch, the blocked punt recovery, the moving of piles foward, the burst through a skinny seam, his stringing moves together in the open field, his stiff arm, his taking out 2 rushers in pass protection.

I haven't seen this. I've seen everything else.

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11 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Yes, but overall he played against extremely weak competition.  

Sure but the difference between the lower end power 5 programs and the upper end MAC/Mountain West/AAC programs is not as enormous as many think it is.

 

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1 hour ago, mbuehner said:

Its a good question, what does special mean. To some extent, theres a 'I know it when I see it' factor, but thats hardly fair.

So- top end speed, if you can run away from defenders, you have the homerun potential.

Raw power- if you can blow up the pile even with the box stacked against you, you're going to score touchdowns.

Some combination of elusiveness, vision, explosiveness, and ability to break tackles. Thats hard to define, because its really more than a sum of its parts, and different guys can excel at different facets. But i think you have to be great at some of those to be great. Being very good at all of them doesnt get you there.

ELITE quickness, hands, and vision in the passing game (Sproles at his best) could get you there.

Anyway, those are the things I look for. Rookies are tough, most everybody looks special on the college highlight reels, thats why they were drafted. Trying to figure out if that will translate means looking for things they are great at, because the things they are just good at make them average in the NFL, at best.

I don't think Hunt is an elite prospect.

He was a 3rd round pick. I think the guys who have really special speed or power tend to be 1st round picks. Or at least are one of the top 2 or 3 RB selected in any draft class. Some draft classes don't have any special players. Some of those players who were thought to be special turn out to be ordinary.

I don't know where that cut off point is. 

For some people it might be a once in a generation type talent. For other people it might be more common than that.

Pre NFL draft I ranked Hunt as tier 2b prospect. Meaning that even if he was drafted very high in the NFL, I would not rank him as a tier one prospect. Hunt was my 7th overall RB. 

He was drafted in the 3rd round and was the 6th RB selected in the NFL draft. That tells us that at least 5 other teams thought other RBs from the 2017 were better players than Hunt. 

A player I have seen some compare him to that makes sense to me is Kenneth Dixon. I ranked these two players pretty close to the same although from different draft classes. Matt Waldman has compared him to Chester Taylor, a player that I like a lot, but I think Hunt is better than Taylor was, more powerful than Taylor, but maybe not as good as a receiver (perhaps close?) I thought Taylor was a pretty good on screen plays.

could see Hunt being as good as Ray Rice but for Hunt to have a career this good, would be exceeding my expectations for him. Westbrrok is another player Hunt has been compared to, similar to Rice I think that is an optimistic expectation.

Based on things like combine metrics and athleticism I think a lot of people would not consider Westbrook or Rice to be special players either, they sure performed well for fantasy though, and not just for one good season.

In my research of RB performance history I found that the average number of RB one type seasons for a RBs career was two seasons. So for me special would be exceeding this threshold, a player capable of having 3 or more top 12 fantasy seasons based on the history. That would be above average.

I don't really see Hunt as that no. I think its possible he could do that, it just doesn't seem likely. Very few RB have accomplished this feat.

Some have stated in this thread that Hunt has been drafted over the top 4 RB in dynasty formats. I think that is a mistake even though it could work out for those who are doing that. I think Cook, McCaffrey, Fournette and Mixon all demonstrate traits that to me are more special than what I have seen from Hunt as far as pure talents. Odds are one or more of those top 4 will fail to deliver on the promise I see in them as prospects, and possible that Hunt has a better career than one or more of them. But just based on what I have seen of these players, I think those four are tier one prospects. While I still consider Hunt a tier two prospect.

It's all relative I think. I likely agree with what your saying. I am just not sure where to actually draw the line between special and good. Everyone likely has different criteria for that. 

I think Kareem Hunt is a good football player, but not a generational talent, or a player I would expect to be top 12 three or more times in his career. I see him as a tier two RB who is unlikely to have a top 12 finish and if he does it may only be for one or two seasons of his career and that is good, but not special.

I didn't think LeVeon Bell was a special prospect either. I thought he was good, but not special. He became a special player in his second season in the league, and looked like a much different player than he was in college. 

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5 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Could you expand his situation being way better than Fournette's? 

Sure. The JVille o-line is awful and the coaching staff couldn't game plan a good running attack if they had the game tape the night before.  

And, as bad as Smith is, Bortles is worse without the self awareness.  

Bottom line:   It will be easier to run the ball in KC.  

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