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Draft - stone cold locks

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What are your 5 Stone Cold locks for the 2017 NFL draft?  The selections you would bet your beach house on.  (Let's see if anyone goes 5-5 without taking the easy way out)

1.  Cleveland Browns - Myles Garrett. This could be declared already. 

2. Titans trade down from 5 to 10 or 12, add a 2nd round pick. I could see oj Howard as the pick at 5 but they really need another top 50 pick.  Cleveland and Buffalo make sense as trade partners

3. Cleveland Browns - Mitchell Trubisky. I think this is by trading up but maybe not. 

4. Indianapolis Colts - rueben foster. Makes too much sense even if I don't like it (because he's too good and I don't want to see the Colts defense improve)

5. Dalvin Cook is not selected day one. 

 

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

What are your 5 Stone Cold locks for the 2017 NFL draft?  The selections you would bet your beach house on.  (Let's see if anyone goes 5-5 without taking the easy way out)

1.  Cleveland Browns - Myles Garrett. This could be declared already. 

2. Titans trade down from 5 to 10 or 12, add a 2nd round pick. I could see oj Howard as the pick at 5 but they really need another top 50 pick.  Cleveland and Buffalo make sense as trade partners

3. Cleveland Browns - Mitchell Trubisky. I think this is by trading up but maybe not. 

4. Indianapolis Colts - rueben foster. Makes too much sense even if I don't like it (because he's too good and I don't want to see the Colts defense improve)

5. Dalvin Cook is not selected day one. 

 

You took the "easy way out" on your first pick. :D I'm obviously just bugging you. No "argument" needed. 

1) Mahomes goes is the first.

2) Solomon Thomas goes at #4

3) Cleveland trades down from #12

4) Arizona drafts Kizer

5) No RBs going in the top 7.

This is tough without taking the chalk/easy picks but not making wild predictions. 

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9 minutes ago, Borden said:

You took the "easy way out" on your first pick. :D I'm obviously just bugging you. No "argument" needed. 

1) Mahomes goes is the first.

2) Solomon Thomas goes at #4

3) Cleveland trades down from #12

4) Arizona drafts Kizer

5) No RBs going in the top 7.

This is tough without taking the chalk/easy picks but not making wild predictions. 

:lol: Yeah I had to list Garrett. Your bolded is exactly the point. 

Your 4 and 5 will be interesting to see.  Make sense.

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28 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

:lol: Yeah I had to list Garrett. Your bolded is exactly the point. 

Your 4 and 5 will be interesting to see.  Make sense.

For the RBs I wanted to go in the Top 10 but I don't trust Carolina enough. According to mock drafts Fournette is a lock at 4 but I think if Thomas is there, him plus a 2nd round RB is better than Fournette plus a 2nd round DL.

I can't give give a bullet proof argument for Kizer to AZ but it seems like it would work for both sides based on draft spot and position need. Also Kizer might be what they hoped Logan Thomas would be. 

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1. Mixon gets drafted ahead of Cook.

2. Mccaffery gets drafted ahead of fournette

3. Ross gets drafted ahead of davis

4. Engram turns out to be the best fantasy te in this class

5. Trubisky is a top 8 fantasy qb by year 3

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  The main coveted fantasy skill positions of RB, WR and TE will all have exactly 8 first round picks with no position having more than 3.

I don't know how many QB's will go in round one but no more than two but more likely only one  will be selected from the teams original draft position, every other QB who is selected in round one will be as a result of a team trading into that position to draft them.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

1. Mixon gets drafted ahead of Cook.

2. Mccaffery gets drafted ahead of fournette

3. Ross gets drafted ahead of davis

4. Engram turns out to be the best fantasy te in this class

5. Trubisky is a top 8 fantasy qb by year 3

Are we posting locks or crazy sh**?

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31 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

5. Trubisky is a top 8 fantasy qb by year 3

Does it matter which team takes him?

If not he should be the 1st overall pick I would think.

 

I suppose I should make some guesses too though.

1. No RB is drafted in the top 10 picks.

2. The top 4 QB are all selected in the first round.

3. A team trades back up into the end half of the first round to select a QB after 3 of them are gone.

4. Samajae Perine is selected before Joe Mixon.

5. OJ Howard is the first TE selected but isn't the most valuable TE for fantasy from the 2017 draft class.

 

 

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1.....Two RBs are taken in the top ten picks

2.....Mahomes is the second QB off the board

3.....No WRs taken in the top 14 picks

4.....Three TEs go in the first round

5.....Browns move up for a QB

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Does it matter which team takes him?

If not he should be the 1st overall pick I would think.

 

 

 

I think people are drinking the mahomes kool aid and are in on Watson or Kizer because you can get them later. It's hard to be on trubisky a bandwagon because an NFL team has to spend a high pick on him, and it's easy to say "he'll bust" because most do. I just think people are missing the boat or are so entrenched in the "this years qbs suck, this years WRs suck" mentality tht they refuse to think for themselves. If the big worry is taking snaps from under center, well that was mariota's big issue as well and he's just fine. He has the tools, reads the field well, and did well vs good competition. In 3 years the list of NFL qbs will have several household names moving to the retired list, and I think trubisky has the talent to move into yearly top 10 range. 

Unless he goes to the jets.

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2 hours ago, spider321 said:

Are we posting locks or crazy sh**?

You want a lock? Crazy a&$ $@&t happens every year! I'm just taking a stance- you think every NFL team is looking at the same lists? I think mixons and Cook have off field concerns, but mixon is the better talent. Someone will fall in love with Ross' speed and reach. Ok maybe mcc over fournette is overboard, but I'm basically playing the media where if I'm right I can go "see, I said this!". And engram as the best fantasy te isn't that far of a stretch. He's a receiver, not a blocker, so he will be drafted to catch passes. 

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55 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

You want a lock? Crazy a&$ $@&t happens every year! I'm just taking a stance- you think every NFL team is looking at the same lists? I think mixons and Cook have off field concerns, but mixon is the better talent. Someone will fall in love with Ross' speed and reach. Ok maybe mcc over fournette is overboard, but I'm basically playing the media where if I'm right I can go "see, I said this!". And engram as the best fantasy te isn't that far of a stretch. He's a receiver, not a blocker, so he will be drafted to catch passes. 

Yeah, I know they all have different lists, but your post seemed more like unlikely predictions than "locks".

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1. Panthers draft McCaffrey

2. A team will trade up to draft Mahomes

3. Titans draft a WR (Ross or Williams)

4. Broncos draft an offensive lineman at #20

5. Browns draft Trubisky by trading up from #12

 

edited... these to me are stone cold locks (besides the obvious Myles Garrett at #1)

Edited by pbandy1
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1 hour ago, spider321 said:

You shut your ***** mouth!!!! :wall:

lol. I mean if they don't draft Derek Barnett, it would have to be an offensive weapon. If it is not McCaffrey maybe they go with Mike Williams. McCaffrey's return ability has got to be appealing though.

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Not much in the way of locks. Lions will draft a TE and a RB. That's as much of a lock as I can think of.

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3 hours ago, spider321 said:

Yeah, I know they all have different lists, but your post seemed more like unlikely predictions than "locks".

That's fair. I will stand by my unlikely predictions though, I think the NFL and the fantasy community have different outlooks on these guys. I did miss the mark on the point of the op though...

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Didn't think about this before but OL will be the last 3 (non ST) positions to be selected.  I don't remember that happening before. 

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9 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

1. Mixon gets drafted ahead of Cook.

2. Mccaffery gets drafted ahead of fournette

3. Ross gets drafted ahead of davis

4. Engram turns out to be the best fantasy te in this class

5. Trubisky is a top 8 fantasy qb by year 3

All except #5

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Guess this topic was posted twice.... from other thread:

1.  Browns take Garrett #1 (as OP said)

2.  Browns take Trubisky, maybe by moving up (also as OP said)

3.  Niners take Solomon Thomas #2, bookending DeForest Buckner

4.  Jags take Leonard Fournette #4, call it the Zeke Effect

5.  Chargers take best available safety at #7 -- Adams if he's there, or Hooker

... maybe those are too easy. 

Guess this topic was posted twice.... from other thread:

 

 

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These running backs and safeties aren't going top 10 like everyone says.

With the salary cap, top 10 RB and S are among top paid players at their positions. 

D-line, corners, and QBs, like every other year, will be preferred positions for top 10 teams.

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The QB, RB, WR, and TE with the best fantasy football career will all be taken after round #1 of this NFL draft.

I think people are over-estimating the top of this draft and underestimating the depth of this draft at the offensive skill positions.

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10 hours ago, nirad3 said:

Guess this topic was posted twice.... from other thread:

1.  Browns take Garrett #1 (as OP said)

2.  Browns take Trubisky, maybe by moving up (also as OP said)

3.  Niners take Solomon Thomas #2, bookending DeForest Buckner

4.  Jags take Leonard Fournette #4, call it the Zeke Effect

5.  Chargers take best available safety at #7 -- Adams if he's there, or Hooker

... maybe those are too easy. 

Guess this topic was posted twice.... from other thread:

 

 

One thread is "bold predictions" the other is "locks". 

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  1. The draft analysts refer to Cleveland's Front Office with the terms "Analytics" and "Moneyball" multiple times.
  2. They refer to white players as cerebral or grinders or hard workers or high character.
  3. They refer to McCaffrey as shifty.
  4. Cleveland trades twice in the 1st round.
  5. There are 4+ trades on day 1.
  6. At least 3 QBs are taken, but 1 falls further than expected.
  7. 9+ DBs are taken in the 1st round, over 1/4 of all players.
  8. 2 teams trade back into the 1st from the 2nd round.
  9. Mel Kiper looks like a bird.
  10. David Shaw gets to talk about 2 Stanford players in the top 10.
  11. A player who was mocked 1 week ago as a round 1/2 player will go after the 6th round (Probably Brantley).
  12. Reuben Foster falls to pick 30. Just kidding, it won't happen but it'd be awesome if it did. Foster still goes top 15 even with diluted sample and "character concerns".
  13. The Ravens draft an offensive skills position player (WR, RB, TE)
  14. NE doesn't trade Garappolo.

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16 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

The QB, RB, WR, and TE with the best fantasy football career will all be taken after round #1 of this NFL draft.

I think people are over-estimating the top of this draft and underestimating the depth of this draft at the offensive skill positions.

This has happened plenty of times before. The odds are still in favor of the players who are drafted high.

The trick is identifying the players who end up being drafted later by the NFL teams soon enough for that to be useful. It is always a losing proposition to assume you know better than the NFL does about these players. The NFL doesn't draft players for fantasy purposes though, so that is one of the keys to finding the rookies who will outperform. A lot of the time the results are driven more by the situation and supporting cast than the players relative talent to their peers.

To give you an example, if the Vikings had drafted Michael Thomas instead of Laquon Treadwell last season, he is still the same player but he likely would not have performed as well without Drew Brees.

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On 4/23/2017 at 5:17 PM, pbandy1 said:

1. Panthers draft McCaffrey

2. A team will trade up to draft Mahomes

3. Titans draft a WR (Ross or Williams)

4. Broncos draft an offensive lineman at #20

5. Browns draft Trubisky by trading up from #12

 

edited... these to me are stone cold locks (besides the obvious Myles Garrett at #1)

not too bad. Just a miss on the Bears trading up for Trubisky instead of Browns

Edited by pbandy1

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On 4/23/2017 at 11:53 AM, menobrown said:

  The main coveted fantasy skill positions of RB, WR and TE will all have exactly 8 first round picks with no position having more than 3.

I don't know how many QB's will go in round one but no more than two but more likely only one  will be selected from the teams original draft position, every other QB who is selected in round one will be as a result of a team trading into that position to draft them.

 

 

I feel like I kind of nailed it.

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Did anyone predict that a gunslinger would go in the first 10 picks, that a baby would appear on stage and that the Falcons would draft some crazy dude carrying a picture of his dead grandma?

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On 2017-04-23 at 10:53 AM, menobrown said:

  The main coveted fantasy skill positions of RB, WR and TE will all have exactly 8 first round picks with no position having more than 3.

I don't know how many QB's will go in round one but no more than two but more likely only one  will be selected from the teams original draft position, every other QB who is selected in round one will be as a result of a team trading into that position to draft them.

 

 

not too shabby

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On 4/23/2017 at 0:27 PM, spider321 said:

Panther's GM, Dave Gettleman, is too smart to pick a RB at 8. ?

IQ test needed for Dave Gettleman!

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On 4/23/2017 at 5:17 PM, pbandy1 said:

1. Panthers draft McCaffrey

2. A team will trade up to draft Mahomes

3. Titans draft a WR (Ross or Williams)

4. Broncos draft an offensive lineman at #20

5. Browns draft Trubisky by trading up from #12

 

edited... these to me are stone cold locks (besides the obvious Myles Garrett at #1)

Damn nice work here.

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On 4/24/2017 at 9:29 AM, steelers1080 said:
  1. The draft analysts refer to Cleveland's Front Office with the terms "Analytics" and "Moneyball" multiple times.
  2. They refer to white players as cerebral or grinders or hard workers or high character.
  3. They refer to McCaffrey as shifty. They said twitchy, close enough?
  4. Cleveland trades twice in the 1st round.
  5. There are 4+ trades on day 1.
  6. At least 3 QBs are taken, but 1 falls further than expected. Wrong, 3 went fast.
  7. 9+ DBs are taken in the 1st round, over 1/4 of all players.  8! C'mon man!
  8. 2 teams trade back into the 1st from the 2nd round. Browns and 49ers!
  9. Mel Kiper looks like a bird.
  10. David Shaw gets to talk about 2 Stanford players in the top 10.
  11. A player who was mocked 1 week ago as a round 1/2 player will go after the 6th round (Probably Brantley). TBD
  12. Reuben Foster falls to pick 30. Just kidding, it won't happen but it'd be awesome if it did. Foster still goes top 15 even with diluted sample and "character concerns".  IT DID HAPPEN! But the Steelers didn't take him!
  13. The Ravens draft an offensive skills position player (WR, RB, TE)  Wrong. DB
  14. NE doesn't trade Garappolo. They're not going to take less than a 1st for him.

9 right, 2 really close! and 1 TBD. Only 2 wrong!

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On 4/23/2017 at 0:22 PM, Biabreakable said:

1. No RB is drafted in the top 10 picks.

2. The top 4 QB are all selected in the first round.

3. A team trades back up into the end half of the first round to select a QB after 3 of them are gone.

4. Samajae Perine is selected before Joe Mixon.

5. OJ Howard is the first TE selected but isn't the most valuable TE for fantasy from the 2017 draft class.

 

 

The first 3 were wrong. 4 is yet to be determined and 5 is partly correct but the second part cannot be judged for a few years yet.

I found myself surprised by the accuracy of some of the rumors that I didn't think would come to pass, but did. Such as Jax picking Fournette, Mike Williams and John Ross were selected in the top 10. Corey Davis didn't surprise me too much, but these other two being taken this high did. I thought they would be later 1st round picks or even possibly fall to the 2nd round.

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Lamp goes to either the Seahawks or Jags at the top of round two.

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9 hours ago, Pipes said:

Damn nice work here.

thanks brah my hours of reviewing various mock drafts paid off

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