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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints

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4 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Can someone explain to me the lack of usage inside the 10? He’s one of the best RBs in the league and there do not seem to be plays in the playbook for him inside the 10. What is up with that?

He can’t ge two yards when needed. Why use him down near the goal when you now have Hill and Murray much more likely to cash in.

He ruined me this year. It was like blowing a first round pick on James White.

Edited by Kwai Chang Caine

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3 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Buy window open in dynasty? 

Yes it has to be. He’s still one of the best RBs in the league.

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9 hours ago, tricky92 said:

Dude already broke my season. Will go down as one of my worst first round picks. Thank God for those two weeks he was out and Lativus actually performed at an RB1 level.

 

7 hours ago, RBM said:

Something not right with him. Hate to think he peaked. 

 

7 hours ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

He can’t ge two yards when needed. Why use him down near the goal when you now have Hill and Murray much more likely to cash in.

He ruined me this year. It was like blowing a first round pick on James White.

He got hurt, whaddaya gonna do?

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8 hours ago, RBM said:

Something not right with him. Hate to think he peaked. 

He had a HAS,  just like Barkley.  They don't all of a sudden suck.  They are hurt.  They can play through a high ankle sprain but it screws a RB throughout the entire season.

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Alvin Kamara rushed 13 times for 25 yards in the Saints' 48-46, Week 14 loss to the 49ers, adding four catches for 18 yards on six targets.

It's been that kind of year for Kamara, who hasn't scored since Week 3. It's hard to believe he's healthy after missing multiple games with a high-ankle sprain. The workload was still there, however, with 17 touches. Latavius Murray was once again just the better player, turning his nine touches into 94 yards. Kamara was stuffed on a 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line in the second quarter before Drew Brees snuck it in for the score on the next play. Kamara has been a massive fantasy bust. He'll get the Colts at home in Week 15.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Both his Tds came in one game. He scored 4 points in my league when saints scored 45. Insane 

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I don’t think he’s healthy. Or at least the ankle injury is playing a role in how he’s being used. I can’t imagine you drafted Kamara in the first and have 30 alternatives you would use over us. I don’t think you sit him

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i get why you guys are reluctant to sit him, but have you watched the way he is playing?  he is clearly not right and is not being used in nearly the same way as prior to the injury.

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2 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i get why you guys are reluctant to sit him, but have you watched the way he is playing?  he is clearly not right and is not being used in nearly the same way as prior to the injury.

He’s clearly hindered by the injury no doubt. And I’ll amend to say in my previous post I’m referring to ppr. I wouldn’t so readily dismiss the thought of benching in standard. In ppr post injury he’s at 15.1 ppg which is tied for rb14. So a high end rb2. 
As far as usage post injury he’s had 12, 23, 20, 15, 17 touches for an average of 17.4 touches per game. His carries are down but his targets and receptions are up compared to before. There’s a lot to work through in those sample sizes- like maybe throwing out the game Brees was hurt in, or throwing out the weird ### kicking Atlanta gave to them, or assessing whether his decrease in carries post injury had more to do with Brees’ return than his injury. 
Regardless, in ppr I feel pretty good about him scoring 12-18 points on average and at some point finding the end zone again in which case he’s pushing 20+. People were complaining about Adams not scoring for 6 straight or whatever then he got wet 3x in 2 games. Nick Chubb had 6 tds his first 6 games then 1 in his next 7. The point is, as most people agree, tds can be somewhat fluky. It’s not like he’s being cucked at the goal line by someone. It’s just been a weird stretch of games for him.

Edited by Cobbler1

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5 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

He’s clearly hindered by the injury no doubt. And I’ll amend to say in my previous post I’m referring to ppr. I wouldn’t so readily dismiss the thought of benching in standard. In ppr post injury he’s at 15.1 ppg which is tied for rb14. So a high end rb2. 
As far as usage post injury he’s had 12, 23, 20, 15, 17 touches for an average of 17.4 touches per game. His carries are down but his targets and receptions are up compared to before. There’s a lot to work through in those sample sizes- like maybe throwing out the game Brees was hurt in, or throwing out the weird ### kicking Atlanta gave to them, or assessing whether his decrease in carries post injury had more to do with Brees’ return than his injury. 
Regardless, in ppr I feel pretty good about him scoring 12-18 points on average and at some point finding the end zone again in which case he’s pushing 20+. People were complaining about Adams not scoring for 6 straight or whatever then he got wet 3x in 2 games. Nick Chubb had 6 tds his first 6 games then 1 in his next 7. The point is, as most people agree, tds can be somewhat fluky. It’s not like he’s being cucked at the goal line by someone. It’s just been a weird stretch of games for him.

yeah, i have one standard league where i have him and 1 small ppr.

fair point about the goal line.  https://www.lineups.com/nfl/running-back-rb-redzone-rush-attempts

Looking at these stats, for the 9 full games he has played:

in the past 4 weeks we have:

RZ rush att: Kamara 9, Murray 2

RZ targets: Kamara 4, Murray 1

WR RZ targets: 9

TE RZ targets: 10

in the first 5 weeks, it was:

RZ rush att: Kamara 11, Murray 1

RZ targets: Kamara 5, Murray 1

WR RZ targets: 9

TE RZ targets: 6

So maybe the usage isn't as different as I thought, at least not in the red zone.  Basically 4 opportunities went away from Kamara and Murray to the TE.  3 of those were to Jared Cook in week 12.  And maybe part of this is just matchup-dependent.

 

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15 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

what do we think?  is it reasonable to sit him this week?

I had three teams with him. 

All are dead.

 

Christ’s sake, Patrick Laird outscored him. That team of mine is still in it. In a way it’s relief that my Kamara teams are out...

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4 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i get why you guys are reluctant to sit him, but have you watched the way he is playing?  he is clearly not right and is not being used in nearly the same way as prior to the injury.

I have a slightly different perspective on Kamara. I agree that he hasn’t flashed the eye popping, crazy, next-level play from his first two seasons as much in 2019 but I don’t see a player that is physically laboring out on the field. I don’t think he’s 100%, but by week 15 who really is? My feeling is that it would be a mistake to sit him on the premise that he’s significantly impaired.

What’s killed Kamara this season has been getting way less TDs and way less big plays. We know that both of those play categories are heavily influenced by randomness. If you look at Kamara’s per-game yardage splits, this season really isn’t much different than his first 2 seasons:

 

TOTAL YARDS PER GAME

2017 – 97.1

2018 – 106.2

2019 – 97.6

 

With a sample size as small as 11 games, TD and big play droughts aren’t uncommon. My feeling is that unless you have very, very good alternatives, you start Kamara and hope the randomness plays out more in his favor.

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Alright Alvin, time to shine today.   No more riding the bus, need you driving the bus.

edit: Alvin - save it for tomorrow.

Edited by kodycutter
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On 12/12/2019 at 10:42 AM, electric Ape said:

I have a slightly different perspective on Kamara. I agree that he hasn’t flashed the eye popping, crazy, next-level play from his first two seasons as much in 2019 but I don’t see a player that is physically laboring out on the field. I don’t think he’s 100%, but by week 15 who really is? My feeling is that it would be a mistake to sit him on the premise that he’s significantly impaired.

What’s killed Kamara this season has been getting way less TDs and way less big plays. We know that both of those play categories are heavily influenced by randomness. If you look at Kamara’s per-game yardage splits, this season really isn’t much different than his first 2 seasons:

 

TOTAL YARDS PER GAME

2017 – 97.1

2018 – 106.2

2019 – 97.6

 

With a sample size as small as 11 games, TD and big play droughts aren’t uncommon. My feeling is that unless you have very, very good alternatives, you start Kamara and hope the randomness plays out more in his favor.

Depends on your scoring setup.  He's riding the pine for Mack and Ekeler for me, in a non ppr TD heavy league.  And beyond the randomness, he just doesn't look as explosive. 

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2 hours ago, Manster said:

Depends on your scoring setup.  He's riding the pine for Mack and Ekeler for me, in a non ppr TD heavy league.  And beyond the randomness, he just doesn't look as explosive. 

I don’t think he’s been healthy most of the season. You’re right... there’s no explosion to his game at all. 

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Good time for the TD regression to happen, glad I trusted him and didn't get cute. Still a stud. 

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Redemption. Glad I survived the TD drought  long enough to make it to the championship 

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Alvin Kamara rushed 11 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints' Week 16 win over the Titans.

He caught 6-of-7 targets for 30 yards in the passing game, but the big news was Kamara ending his personal touchdown drought with a 40-yard score in the third quarter. It was Kamara's longest run of the season and his first score since Week 3. He later put the cherry on top with a one-yard plunge. This was also Kamara's first 100-yard game since Week 12 against the Panthers. Kamara will get Carolina again in Week 17.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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That was the Saints first 40+ yard TD all season. Graphic last night said the Chiefs led the league with 12 and now the Bears were the only team with 0.

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6 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

That was the Saints first 40+ yard TD all season. 

Amazing stat when you consider the offense and its players.

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Alvin Kamara rushed seven times for 21 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Wild Card loss to the Vikings, adding eight receptions for 34 additional yards.

Kamara battled injuries for the first time in his career this season and truly seemed to be operating at less than 100 percent down the stretch. Still, the incredibly fantasy-friendly RB still posted plenty-respectable 171-797-5 rushing and 81-533-1 receiving lines on the season. 2019 marked the third consecutive year that Kamara caught at least 80 passes, a feat only Marshall Faulk and Christian McCaffrey have also accomplished among all RBs to ever play the game. The Saints routinely featured Kamara as their true No. 1 RB ahead of Latavius Murray, as he played at least 59% of the offense's snaps in every game except for their blowout win over the Panthers in Week 17. Kamara should once again be drafted inside the first five-or-so picks in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes in 2020.

Jan 5, 2020, 5:04 PM ET

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Maybe recency bias ... but I don’t want Kamara in the first round next season. Dude’s got to prove it all over again.

Edited by Doug B

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4 hours ago, Doug B said:

Maybe recency bias ... but I don’t want Kamara in the first round next season. Dude’s got to prove it all over again.

agreed. For all the love this kid gets, I just don't see it play out on the field. When I watch Saints games, he's never doing much, he's mostly an ordinary joe. definitely glad I didn't pick him early, and won't be looking to draft him anywhere in the top 2 rounds in 2020.

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9 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

agreed. For all the love this kid gets, I just don't see it play out on the field. When I watch Saints games, he's never doing much, he's mostly an ordinary joe. definitely glad I didn't pick him early, and won't be looking to draft him anywhere in the top 2 rounds in 2020.

Dude killed three of my teams including my most important home league. That said though, he could be a nice value next year if he falls to second round or even the very end of round one.

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14 hours ago, Doug B said:

Maybe recency bias ... but I don’t want Kamara in the first round next season. Dude’s got to prove it all over again.

I don't know if it was the injury or what, but he sleep-walked through most of the season....and looked clueless in the one playoff game.

He's a PPR machine though, that value might bring him back to a late first.  Won't be picked there by me though.

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1 hour ago, Statorama said:

I don't know if it was the injury or what, but he sleep-walked through most of the season....and looked clueless in the one playoff game.

He's a PPR machine though, that value might bring him back to a late first.  Won't be picked there by me though.

that's the thing...i never though he was that talented but he's perfect for that system.  On another team he's a jag but on the saints he's going to catch 70 passes from brees

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On 1/6/2020 at 4:37 PM, Leroy Hoard said:

Non PPR he is problematic unless he gets those TD chances.

This is the issue. He’s not used inside the 10 much. I’m starting to wonder if he’s a RB2 masquerading as an RB1 even in 0.5 PPR. If so, then he could be a “sell medium” instead of a buy low. Also I don’t think you can really buy low on him because every ranking I’ve seen has him as a 2020 first round pick.

Edited by Gandalf
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Curious for a value check. What dynasty WRs would you trade straight up for Kamara?

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Quote

Alvin Kamara said his leg was at 75% last season, but he is now 100% healthy.

Kamara's before and after injury splits were notable in 2019, particularly in the broken tackle department. Whenever healthy, Kamara offers game-breaking ability in the open field, showcasing wiggle and enough strength to break through one-on-one arm tackles. Unfortunately, that was stripped from him in the second half of last season. Assuming he has a healthy offseason, Kamara could be slightly undervalued as a borderline top-five fantasy pick with Drew Brees checking down underneath more than ever. Only Marshall Faulk, Christian McCaffrey, and Kamara have caught at least 80 passes in three consecutive seasons at the position.

SOURCE: Alvin Kamara on Twitter

Mar 10, 2020, 8:30 PM ET

 

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