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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints

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1 hour ago, fruity pebbles said:

The contract offers from both sides make sense though. Kamara wants to be paid the same as CMac’s 16 per and the Saints want to give him the same as Mixon just got at 12 per. I love Alvin but he’s not McCaffrey. He probably should be in that 12-13 range.

Kamara is an idiot if he passes up $12M/year. I know there are many other details (guarantees, etc.), just saying, the Gordon fiasco should be a lesson for all RBs in this situation.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I just read that they’re only $4 million apart. Sounds kind of silly. Alvin wants 16… The Saints want to pay 12… Give the man 14 and call it a day. :shrug: 

My boss and I had a similar disagreement on salary and were $4 million apart. I ended taking the # he gave me.

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Just now, Tool said:

My boss and I had a similar disagreement on salary and were $4 million apart. I ended taking the # he gave me.

LOL. Smart man

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21 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Are you suggesting that Ekeler will be as productive with Taylor/Herbert and/or that White will be as productive with Newton/Stidham? I don't expect that. I don't expect it to be particularly close for Ekeler.

I do expect that. I expect Ekeler to have fewer catches but offset by more rushing attempts. Please see his rushing stats prior to Gordon coming back. I see it as a wash and he will be as productive because he will have more share of rushing attempts. Game script may allow for lots of garbage time work.
 

I also expect White to have as good of a season because of game script. I expect the Pats to have a bit of a rough time as compared to past seasons and White will be on the field a lot more once Pats fall behind in games. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I just read that they’re only $4 million apart. Sounds kind of silly. Alvin wants 16… The Saints want to pay 12… Give the man 14 and call it a day. :shrug: 

Aren't they already paying Taysom Hill in that 12m neighborhood?

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1 hour ago, Blackbear said:

I do expect that. I expect Ekeler to have fewer catches but offset by more rushing attempts. Please see his rushing stats prior to Gordon coming back. I see it as a wash and he will be as productive because he will have more share of rushing attempts. Game script may allow for lots of garbage time work.

Exchanging receiving for rushing is not a wash for Ekeler. Last season, he averaged:

  • 10.8 ypr and 1 receiving TD for every 11.5 receptions
  • 4.2 ypc and 1 TD for every 44 rushing attempts

Do you see a difference there? He would need 3-4 times as many rushing attempts as receptions lost to hold steady... if his rate/efficiency numbers hold steady. But they won't hold steady. Tyrod/Herbert are not going to give him the same quality of targets or the same quality of offense (i.e., shorter drives, fewer red zone touches, etc.) as the Chargers had with Rivers.

As for his rushing stats prior to Gordon coming back, he averaged less than 4 ypc. His fantasy stats were good due to volume, but I don't see him getting that rushing volume with Jackson and Kelley healthy.

:2cents: 

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Saints and Alvin Kamara will "keep working on a deal."

Things certainly were contentious the last few days after Kamara turned down the Saints' $12 million per-year offer. Rapoport reports that "cooler heads have prevailed" and that they'll continue working out the details of a long-term contract. Reports that the Saints were shopping Kamara probably were tied to using leverage for negotiations, especially with the Saints in a very small window to win a Super Bowl with the 41-year-old Drew Brees. As of now, Kamara is expected to report to practice tomorrow while his agent keeps chipping away. It's not a guarantee that a deal is done prior to the season, but there's not enough of a threat to drop Kamara outside of the top six or so picks in fantasy drafts, assuming Kamara's back is fine. He reportedly needed an epidural shot last Thursday. Latavius Murray remains one of fantasy's best pure insurance backs for all reasons listed above.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Sep 1, 2020, 10:19 PM ET

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28 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Exchanging receiving for rushing is not a wash for Ekeler. Last season, he averaged:

  • 10.8 ypr and 1 receiving TD for every 11.5 receptions
  • 4.2 ypc and 1 TD for every 44 rushing attempts

Do you see a difference there? He would need 3-4 times as many rushing attempts as receptions lost to hold steady... if his rate/efficiency numbers hold steady. But they won't hold steady. Tyrod/Herbert are not going to give him the same quality of targets or the same quality of offense (i.e., shorter drives, fewer red zone touches, etc.) as the Chargers had with Rivers.

As for his rushing stats prior to Gordon coming back, he averaged less than 4 ypc. His fantasy stats were good due to volume, but I don't see him getting that rushing volume with Jackson and Kelley healthy.

:2cents: 

My point is the rushing volume will go up. Yes he was great before Gordon came back. I don’t think Jackson and Kelly eat into his work load like Gordon did.

Also on White, another point is Cam got a lot of balls to CMC... he will find White, a lot. 
 

But it is ok for us to disagree, it is what makes this fantasy.

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An epidural shot in the back when you're not even practicing is a worry to me. 

 

Good thing I don't know what these guys go through on a regular basis. 

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On 8/31/2020 at 1:53 PM, zeeshan2 said:

unexcused absence for kamara the past 3 days and it seems to be contract related according to schefter

Kamara had an epidural shot in the back. And he's being fined since the days off were unexcused? Something isn't right.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/saints-alvin-kamara-will-be-fined-for-absence/amp/

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1 hour ago, Yenrub said:

Aren't they already paying Taysom Hill in that 12m neighborhood?

$21 million over two seasons, signed this past April. $16 M guaranteed.

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13 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Kamara had an epidural shot in the back. And he's being fined since the days off were unexcused? Something isn't right.

That fine is never going to come to pass IMHO.

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Quote

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports the Saints and Alvin Kamara are "not far apart" in contract negotiations.

Kamara's side reportedly isn't asking for "Christian McCaffrey money," likely landing a deal in the range of $13-$15 million annually in the coming days. The team was initially open to trading the 25-year-old in return for a first-round pick but that notion has since subsided after both parties continued talking well into Tuesday night. With Kamara expected to report to practice (following an epidural injection) Wednesday afternoon, fantasy players should continue drafting him without hesitation as a top-five option. Even so, Latavius Murray remains one of fantasy's most important and best insurance policies in case discussions go awry.

SOURCE: Jeremy Fowler on Twitter

Sep 2, 2020, 12:32 AM ET

 

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9 hours ago, Truebluey said:

An epidural shot in the back when you're not even practicing is a worry to me. 

 

Good thing I don't know what these guys go through on a regular basis. 

This is the part that scares me the most.  I don't want any risk at the #5 overall pick.

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41 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

This is the part that scares me the most.  I don't want any risk at the #5 overall pick.

who would you say is the least risky at 5 (take out saquon, zeke and cmac)

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8 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

who would you say is the least risky at 5 (take out saquon, zeke and cmac)

I have Henry over Kamara.  If the King goes at 4 I am thinking of pivoting away from Kamara to Mike Thomas.

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36 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

who would you say is the least risky at 5 (take out saquon, zeke and cmac)

Henry for sure in standard. And probably 0.5 point PPR as well. In full PPR, then it gets dicier. 

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2 hours ago, Keith1 said:

Henry for sure in standard. And probably 0.5 point PPR as well. In full PPR, then it gets dicier. 

Full PPR I look hard at Thomas, assuming 1-4 were RBs - at least if I’m trying to minimize risk. 

But I do love me some Cook & Henry. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Full PPR I look hard at Thomas, assuming 1-4 were RBs - at least if I’m trying to minimize risk. 

But I do love me some Cook & Henry. 

And between Cook and Henry only one of them: (a) is injury-prone; (b) is unhappy about his contract situation; and (c) has a back-up that requires a fairly high draft pick

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31 minutes ago, Keith1 said:

And between Cook and Henry only one of them: (a) is injury-prone; (b) is unhappy about his contract situation; and (c) has a back-up that requires a fairly high draft pick

correct & correct, and correct. 

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

correct & correct, and correct. 

A simple...

D) all of the above

would have sufficed.

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1 minute ago, VikingFrog said:

A simple...

D) all of the above

would have sufficed.

Yeah, well, if brevity is like, your thing, man. 

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16 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah, well, if brevity is like, your thing, man. 

The Dude abides !

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16 hours ago, Blackbear said:

My point is the rushing volume will go up. Yes he was great before Gordon came back. I don’t think Jackson and Kelly eat into his work load like Gordon did.

Also on White, another point is Cam got a lot of balls to CMC... he will find White, a lot. 
 

But it is ok for us to disagree, it is what makes this fantasy.

I posted about a Cam-will-turn-White-into-CMC article awhile back. CMC hardly ever came off the field last year (played 93.35% of snaps) while White was a specialist and only played in 42.65% of snaps. Ignoring the fact that CMC didn't really play much at all with Newton last season, he averaged 1 reception every 9 snaps. White averaged a reception every 6.8 snaps.

Back when Cam actually did play with CMC, CMC averaged one reception every 9.3 snaps in 2017 and one reception every 9 snaps in 2018. Bottom line, White saw more receptions per snap with Brady than CMC did with or without Newton in Carolina.

Put another way, if White had the same catch-to-snap rate in NE last year as CMC did in CAR, White would have had 54 catches instead of 72. Who knows what will happen with a lot of changes in NE this year, so it is something to openly question. Given the reports out of camp that Newton has preferred to throw check downs and may not fully grasp the offense, White might see as many targets as he did with Brady. But I personally would take the under if the over / under was set at 72 receptions for White this season.

 

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I am drafting today in one hour.  Any real news?  I pick 11th in non-PPR league.  Should I take him with confidence if he is still there?

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7 minutes ago, Jamesinaz said:

I am drafting today in one hour.  Any real news?  I pick 11th in non-PPR league.  Should I take him with confidence if he is still there?

If he is there you should be grateful, things seem fine with him

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7 minutes ago, Jamesinaz said:

I am drafting today in one hour.  Any real news?  I pick 11th in non-PPR league.  Should I take him with confidence if he is still there?

Injury wise, I think he’s fine.

https://twitter.com/Kat_Terrell/status/1303035434713468929?s=20

I’m not sure about his contract. I doubt he holds out. But it is a risk. I’d be comfortable grabbing him at 11, but would prioritize getting Murray a round or two earlier than you might think.

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Thanks.  I thought at 11 he was sliding too far but wondered when I printed out my cheat sheet why FBG have him as 11 overall in draft order.

 

 

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Even with the contract situation, he is in consideration at pick 5 or 6 even in a non-ppr. It's a no-brainer at pick 11 IMO. 

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I had the 1.07 and landed him in a 12 team PPR draft tonight. Mahomes went 1.04 (someone always does) and Clyde went at 1.06 so I had the choice of Kamara or Thomas at 7.  Never imagined he’d have been there...

Edited by wlwiles

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Quote

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Saints and Alvin Kamara are "extremely close" to finalizing a multi-year extension.

The two sides are hoping to finalize the agreement in the coming days. Although the Saints and Kamara haven't been far apart in negotations over the past week, this development ensures the 25-year-old is available and on the field for his usual amount of reps in Week 1. Expect the final numbers to land somewhere in range of $13-$15 million annually.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Sep 8, 2020, 9:46 AM ET

 

 

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These backs got some REALLY good advice getting their bag right now. 

Next year's RB FA class was scheduled to be loaded. And obviously no guarantee on health.

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24 minutes ago, Craig_MiamiFL said:

These backs got some REALLY good advice getting their bag right now. 

Next year's RB FA class was scheduled to be loaded. And obviously no guarantee on health.


All the guys that were scheduled to make it loaded are pretty much off the market now, so no worries about that. The real fear is the cap going down to the new agreed-upon floor of 175M and they got their guarantees in before that, smartly.

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28 minutes ago, Craig_MiamiFL said:

These backs got some REALLY good advice getting their bag right now. 

Next year's RB FA class was scheduled to be loaded. And obviously no guarantee on health.

:goodposting: :goodposting: 

Smartly the agents got their guys paid NOW. I saw that upcoming FA RB class at start of offseason and thought to myself "These guys better get paid now" and not risk future injury and competition from draft class (or other current NFL RB that emerges outta nowhere like Drake).

If I'm Aaron Jones agent, I'm working round the clock tonight to get something done before opening snap tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Man that last TD looked really close to overturn. 

Looked obviously short if you paused it on the frame as his foot first touches the white.  Can see green between even his glove and the goalline.

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Alvin Kamara rushed 12 times for 17 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 1 win over the Bucs. 

Kamara had a late touchdown called back while doing almost nothing on the ground. As per usual, he excelled as a pass catcher, catching 5-of-8 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. A ho-hum performance for the newly paid Kamara ended well with thanks to the scores. He was out-rushed by backfield mate Latavius Murray, who got 15 totes against Tampa. Kamara gets a plush Week 2 matchup against the Raiders and their exploitable rush defense. 

- Rotoworld

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Saints have the toughest rushing schedule in the league. Glad I avoided Kamara. I think he’s going to disappoint relative to his ADP. 12 for 17 is terrible. I realize he catches too but he’s no CMC, that’s for sure

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2 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Saints have the toughest rushing schedule in the league. Glad I avoided Kamara. I think he’s going to disappoint relative to his ADP. 12 for 17 is terrible. I realize he catches too but he’s no CMC, that’s for sure

The Bucs front 7 ain't too shaby, I'm not sure I would go that far. Let see next week with a +matchup. Plus heck, give me 2 TD's on a tough night any day! 

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2 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Saints have the toughest rushing schedule in the league. Glad I avoided Kamara. I think he’s going to disappoint relative to his ADP. 12 for 17 is terrible. I realize he catches too but he’s no CMC, that’s for sure

Bucs have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, I would not worry about it. Kamara has caught 81 passes exactly in all 3 seasons and since week 5 of his rookie year when Peterson was cut and he was given a regular role in the offense, he has scored 39 TDs in 42 games. 

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I realize bucs defense is pretty good but his year long schedule is the toughest for RBs. In other words, every week gonna be tough sledding. I’m not saying to panic but I’m expecting a down year and him not to live up to his ADP. I avoided Kamara this year. 

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3 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

I realize bucs defense is pretty good but his year long schedule is the toughest for RBs. In other words, every week gonna be tough sledding. I’m not saying to panic but I’m expecting a down year and him not to live up to his ADP. I avoided Kamara this year

 

3 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Saints have the toughest rushing schedule in the league. Glad I avoided Kamara. I think he’s going to disappoint relative to his ADP. 12 for 17 is terrible. I realize he catches too but he’s no CMC, that’s for sure

 

Doesn't seem like you avoided him at all. He's clearly been haunting you. :)

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