bostonfred
Footballguy
This is one of the hottest trade markets in dynasty. The couple days around the nfl draft when even the most casual dynasty player is catching up on the news, and even the guys with no first round picks are into it. It's also the time when people panic - especially at running back. There are so many good backs coming out. What if my guy loses his job? There are some great buying opportunities right now if you can guess right.
Some guys who might be cheaper than they should
Paul Perkins - quietly looks like he could be the lead back and a three down rb. The Giants are said to be interested in adding Blount. That is ideal for Perkins' value. You might be thinking the opposite - Blount had over 300 touches and 18 touchdowns last year, couldn't he do the same for the giants. Doubtful. His high water mark before last year was 7 touchdowns, and he has 32 in 6 nfl seasons. He hasn't broken 200 touches since his rookie year, when he had 206 followed by 199, 42, 155, 135, 171... and 306. His 299 rushes went for just under 3.9 per carry, and anyone who watched him knows that his first and second quarter carries were abysmal. He didn't start ripping off gainers until he'd worn defenses down a little. Blount is also a terrible fit for the three receiver shotgun sets and audible heavy plays the giants like. I don't expect rb1 numbers, but Perkins could be a strong rb2 if given the opportunity. He runs well, catches well, and after a late start to training camp learned all the blocking schemes and audibles. Lots of breakout potential.
Rob Kelley - took over as the volume back week 8. In 9 games, he had 151 rush attempts. 601 yards, 6 touchdowns, with 11 catches, 81 yards. That pro rates to a decent but unspectacular 1250 total yards and 11 touchdowns. Normally I wouldn't even think about a guy like this, but people are acting like the redskins have already replaced him. He might be the cheapest young rb out there, and at his current price he might be worth a roster spot as a pure backup rb lottery ticket. It's like winning the daily numbers game instead of the big multi million dollar prize - not nearly as exciting but a realistic chance of paying off.
Frank Gore - this is the year the Colts take a running back early, right? It has to be. That's what everyone said last year, when Gore had his 9th 1000 yard rushing season of his career. His owners would love to time the market and sell when he's obviously going to lose his job this week - but what if he doesn't? Send a trade offer and see what it costs to get a 34 year old back who might not have a job - it can't be much.
Jamaal Charles - yeah, he's old and he's done and he doesn't even have a team. But he's also the guy who will get the first phone call when there's a camp injury, and his value will spike as soon as someone inevitably gets hurt. He's the type of guy you can buy cheap now when there's no news and flip later when there is. Might be even cheaper after the nfl draft dust settles.
Kenneth Dixon - there are reasons to be down on him, no doubt. 4 game suspension. Terrance West listed as starter. Woodhead signed. They could draft someone else. His stock had plummeted. But. As deep as this rb draft is, the Ravens have a lot of needs, and they just addressed running back in free agency. If the Ravens draft a guy in the first couple rounds, Dixon is on life support. But if they don't, it may be a signal that he's their rb of the future. West is their rb1 by default and was good enough to keep the seat warm, but not a guy the Ravens want to build around. Woodhead is a very good role player but he won't get 200 touches. His high water marks are 178 and 182 touches,the only years he broke 1000 total yards. In those two years, he had 1361 receiving and 760 rushing - in other words, the lead back can still have a big role in accumulating yards and touchdowns. If the Dixon owner is starting to panic, you might be able to get an emerging feature rb cheap.
Danny Woodhead - if he is healthy, and if he can stay healthy, and if he's still good at 32 years old coming off his second major injury in three years... yikes. Why is he on this list if Dixon is too? The reason - weeks one to four. The Ravens open up with the Bengals, Browns, jaguars and Steelers and it looks like west and woodhead will be the top rbs. West could be a nice value for those games, too - but woodhead is a much easier guy to flip than west. The ideal case is you get those first couple good games, get good value from him and then trade him for something with real long term value.
Isaiah Crowell - I have such a hard time getting excited about this guy. But the Browns have put together a good offensive line, and hue wants to run. If Crowell survives the draft, this might actually be the year. He's also got some contact drama - he refused to sign his rfa tender, after getting an offer sheet at the second round level. If his owners are nervous, this might be a chance to buy a 24 year old starting back for an improving team who just had 40 catches and yards per carry in the high 4s, with an emerging o line, a good coach... maybe there's something here. At the right price.
Spencer ware - another guy who is already getting dirt shoveled on his grave. It's possible he was miscast as a starter, but he averaged 98 yards per game and probably would have done more if he hadn't dealt with a concussion and a rib injury. If the Chiefs draft a guy early, I'd rather have that guy. But if they don't, ware might be a solid value pick
Cj Anderson - there was a news blurb a few days ago where the Broncos said if Anderson is ready for OTAs, he's ready for the season. It was reported as Anderson not ready for OTAs , might not have job. Then he showed up to OTAs. So he should be ready for the season. Then the Broncos talked about mccaffrey. Maybe they are going hard after a running back. Or maybe Elway the former quarterback is excited about his best receiver's son. Regardless, it seems like Anderson news has all been negative recently, but when the guy plays, he's consistently been a low end rb1 or better. If you can buy him at a pre draft discount you might get a steal.
This might look like a pretty ugly group of backs right now, but that's the point - their price is low, and we're about to get a lot of new information about them in the next couple days. If the Giants and Broncos add a first round offensive lineman and no running back in the first couple rounds, and the Ravens, Browns and chiefs don't all grab running backs early, and if the Colts once again defy all logic... there might be some value here. It should be cheap to find out.
Some guys who might be cheaper than they should
Paul Perkins - quietly looks like he could be the lead back and a three down rb. The Giants are said to be interested in adding Blount. That is ideal for Perkins' value. You might be thinking the opposite - Blount had over 300 touches and 18 touchdowns last year, couldn't he do the same for the giants. Doubtful. His high water mark before last year was 7 touchdowns, and he has 32 in 6 nfl seasons. He hasn't broken 200 touches since his rookie year, when he had 206 followed by 199, 42, 155, 135, 171... and 306. His 299 rushes went for just under 3.9 per carry, and anyone who watched him knows that his first and second quarter carries were abysmal. He didn't start ripping off gainers until he'd worn defenses down a little. Blount is also a terrible fit for the three receiver shotgun sets and audible heavy plays the giants like. I don't expect rb1 numbers, but Perkins could be a strong rb2 if given the opportunity. He runs well, catches well, and after a late start to training camp learned all the blocking schemes and audibles. Lots of breakout potential.
Rob Kelley - took over as the volume back week 8. In 9 games, he had 151 rush attempts. 601 yards, 6 touchdowns, with 11 catches, 81 yards. That pro rates to a decent but unspectacular 1250 total yards and 11 touchdowns. Normally I wouldn't even think about a guy like this, but people are acting like the redskins have already replaced him. He might be the cheapest young rb out there, and at his current price he might be worth a roster spot as a pure backup rb lottery ticket. It's like winning the daily numbers game instead of the big multi million dollar prize - not nearly as exciting but a realistic chance of paying off.
Frank Gore - this is the year the Colts take a running back early, right? It has to be. That's what everyone said last year, when Gore had his 9th 1000 yard rushing season of his career. His owners would love to time the market and sell when he's obviously going to lose his job this week - but what if he doesn't? Send a trade offer and see what it costs to get a 34 year old back who might not have a job - it can't be much.
Jamaal Charles - yeah, he's old and he's done and he doesn't even have a team. But he's also the guy who will get the first phone call when there's a camp injury, and his value will spike as soon as someone inevitably gets hurt. He's the type of guy you can buy cheap now when there's no news and flip later when there is. Might be even cheaper after the nfl draft dust settles.
Kenneth Dixon - there are reasons to be down on him, no doubt. 4 game suspension. Terrance West listed as starter. Woodhead signed. They could draft someone else. His stock had plummeted. But. As deep as this rb draft is, the Ravens have a lot of needs, and they just addressed running back in free agency. If the Ravens draft a guy in the first couple rounds, Dixon is on life support. But if they don't, it may be a signal that he's their rb of the future. West is their rb1 by default and was good enough to keep the seat warm, but not a guy the Ravens want to build around. Woodhead is a very good role player but he won't get 200 touches. His high water marks are 178 and 182 touches,the only years he broke 1000 total yards. In those two years, he had 1361 receiving and 760 rushing - in other words, the lead back can still have a big role in accumulating yards and touchdowns. If the Dixon owner is starting to panic, you might be able to get an emerging feature rb cheap.
Danny Woodhead - if he is healthy, and if he can stay healthy, and if he's still good at 32 years old coming off his second major injury in three years... yikes. Why is he on this list if Dixon is too? The reason - weeks one to four. The Ravens open up with the Bengals, Browns, jaguars and Steelers and it looks like west and woodhead will be the top rbs. West could be a nice value for those games, too - but woodhead is a much easier guy to flip than west. The ideal case is you get those first couple good games, get good value from him and then trade him for something with real long term value.
Isaiah Crowell - I have such a hard time getting excited about this guy. But the Browns have put together a good offensive line, and hue wants to run. If Crowell survives the draft, this might actually be the year. He's also got some contact drama - he refused to sign his rfa tender, after getting an offer sheet at the second round level. If his owners are nervous, this might be a chance to buy a 24 year old starting back for an improving team who just had 40 catches and yards per carry in the high 4s, with an emerging o line, a good coach... maybe there's something here. At the right price.
Spencer ware - another guy who is already getting dirt shoveled on his grave. It's possible he was miscast as a starter, but he averaged 98 yards per game and probably would have done more if he hadn't dealt with a concussion and a rib injury. If the Chiefs draft a guy early, I'd rather have that guy. But if they don't, ware might be a solid value pick
Cj Anderson - there was a news blurb a few days ago where the Broncos said if Anderson is ready for OTAs, he's ready for the season. It was reported as Anderson not ready for OTAs , might not have job. Then he showed up to OTAs. So he should be ready for the season. Then the Broncos talked about mccaffrey. Maybe they are going hard after a running back. Or maybe Elway the former quarterback is excited about his best receiver's son. Regardless, it seems like Anderson news has all been negative recently, but when the guy plays, he's consistently been a low end rb1 or better. If you can buy him at a pre draft discount you might get a steal.
This might look like a pretty ugly group of backs right now, but that's the point - their price is low, and we're about to get a lot of new information about them in the next couple days. If the Giants and Broncos add a first round offensive lineman and no running back in the first couple rounds, and the Ravens, Browns and chiefs don't all grab running backs early, and if the Colts once again defy all logic... there might be some value here. It should be cheap to find out.
