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steelers1080

First Round Fantasy Implications

155 posts in this topic

  • Fournette - Went where expected, should do fine with Coughlin leading the team. Yeldon still has a role as a 3rd down back, Ivory has probably little value.
  • Davis - The Titans are a landing spot some liked. I think he could do well, but worry that the running game will overshadow him.  Reduced the hope for Tajae and the role for Rishard.
  • McCaffrey - Went to Carolina as expected. Could do really well with the threat of Cam to take off, and his special teams ability.  Cam doesn't really throw the ball to the RB, so it will be interesting to see if he can change.
  • Williams - Went to the Chargers, a small surprised, lots of analysts had them going D.  He could be great, but they have a lot of mouths to feed in Los Angeles.  Williams, Williams, Allen, Henry, Gates, Benjamin... could someone get traded?  If not, Tyrell is probably the odd man out.
  • Howard - Not many thought he'd last until the Bucs. It's almost a perfect landing spot for both him and Winston. It seems like Brate's value will plummet, but could be interesting if they employ a 2 TE set. Evans, Brate, Howard, Jackson... how do you stop that?
  • Njoku - The Browns probably isn't that bad of a landing spot, but I don't think this is a great landing spot. Hue Jackson has turned TEs into TD machines in the past, but with fairly low yardage numbers. Perhaps this time will be different, but Cody Kessler isn't as good as Andy Dalton.
  • Mitchell Trubisky - Well, the Bears is a bit of a surprise.  He's got solid targets and a potentially good O-line if they can stay healthy. Don't think he's particularly fantasy relevant.
  • Pat Mahomes II - The Chiefs trading up was a surprise, and a pleasant one. Andy Reid can groom a QB to be a good NFL Quarterback. Will he be fantasy relevant? That remains to be seen, but right now I think he has the most upside. The Chiefs have some good pass catchers, and he wouldn't need to start until a year or 2 from now.
  • Deshaun Watson - I thought he was the best pro QB in the draft. His mechanics aren't perfect, he throws too many jump balls and therefore gets picked too much, but he wins big games. You want to draft a winner.  As a fantasy QB I'm not sure he'll ever be reliable, but the Texans have some good WRs and he'll be given the opportunity to take over the role sooner rather than later.  Lamar Miller should also be a good safety net for him, and the defense should be able to keep scores low and allow him to ease into the QB situation, instead of having to air it out a lot.

 

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I hate McAffery to the Panthers. He needs to go somewhere that has a QB that will toss the check down to the RB rather than use his legs to get out of trouble. I LOVED his potential in going into the draft but hate his landing spot now. 

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20 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:
  • Williams, Williams, Allen, Henry, Gates, Benjamin... could someone get traded?  If not, Tyrell is probably the odd man out.

Keenan Allen gets hurt a lot and needs a lot of targets to put up fantasy numbers.  They just added another mouth to feed. Sell while you can. 

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Who cares how many mouths there are to feed when you're the biggest bird in the nest. 

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11 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Keenan Allen gets hurt a lot and needs a lot of targets to put up fantasy numbers.  They just added another mouth to feed. Sell while you can. 

I get the injury risk, but do you have numbers that show Allen is below average in points per target?

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9 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Keenan Allen gets hurt a lot and needs a lot of targets to put up fantasy numbers.  They just added another mouth to feed. Sell while you can. 

The injuries are fluky. I'd see this as a buying opp for Keenan. People are down on him due to an ACL and ruptured spleen and they just spent a high pick on a WR. The hit rate of 1st round WRs is like 50%, right? And they don't all break out as rookies. Personally, I wasn't high on Williams, so as a Keenan fan, I'm not overly worried. I'll be putting in offers where I don't have him and targeting him in redraft. 

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28 minutes ago, TheFanatic said:

I hate McAffery to the Panthers. He needs to go somewhere that has a QB that will toss the check down to the RB rather than use his legs to get out of trouble. I LOVED his potential in going into the draft but hate his landing spot now. 

McCaffrey wont be solely a checkdown. They'll have him in the slot quite a bit. With Ginn gone, theres a lot of potential targets in the passing game. Not too mention he'll return some kicks and punts for leagues that give points for that. I think he piles up points in a variety of ways. Plus Cam ran once per game more than Aaron Rodgers last season. My belief is selecting McCaffrey is partially due to wanting to reduce Cams beating.

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Agree with above.  What are you going to get for K Allen anyway at this point?  The guy had two season ending injuries the last two seasons, both of which were fluky.  He hasn't had a solid season since his rookie year back in 2013.  Add to that the draft pick last night and people are going to be very down on him.  I think he's still in line (if healthy, which is always a concern with him) for a 90 catch, over 1000 yard season. 

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Still many rounds to go but Doug Martin could end up being a winner if he can escape the next round or two.  I just saw a story on how he has been the most impressive player during mini camp and they just added the top TE and a huge downfield threat in DJax.  He has the 3 game suspension and needs to escape a few more potential RB but if you don't mind a gamble he could be huge with those receivers spreading things out and a pretty potent offense.

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47 minutes ago, TheFanatic said:

I hate McAffery to the Panthers. He needs to go somewhere that has a QB that will toss the check down to the RB rather than use his legs to get out of trouble. I LOVED his potential in going into the draft but hate his landing spot now. 

They drafted him 8th to not throw to him. Thats what you come up with? You honestly believe as we sit here today they didnt know he needs to be thrown the ball to also be effective before they used the 8th overall pick on him? 

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Just now, Mavis said:

They drafted him 8th to not throw to him. Thats what you come up with? You honestly believe as we sit here today they didnt know he needs to be thrown the ball to also be effective before they used the 8th overall pick on him? 

A team that hasn't thrown the ball to the RB in 6 years is going to all of the sudden have Edgerin James or Marshall Faulk in the back field. That's what you come up with?

Teams draft players all the time and intend to use them a certain way and that doesn't always happen. Tavon Austin? Teams also reach for players that they want to use but don't use properly. Like teams that play a 3-4 but draft a guy high that is better suited for the 4-3. 

Cam is top 2 or 3 every year for 6 years in attempts by a QB. So you expect in year 7, he's going to be Tom Brady and stand in the pocket and check down to the RB? I've got 6 years of stats. You've got, "But, but, but, they drafted him high." High draft pics bust all the time. I don't think the guy is going to be a bust. I just think he went to a terrible landing spot. 

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Bad year to need a WR, Mike Williams and John Ross fantasy value got torpedoed IMO. Howard landed nicely, but the rest of the TE's I'm a lot less excited about. Lots of mouths to feed in N.Y. and Eli is no spring chicken. Njoku might end up ok in the long run since the Browns actually seem like a competent organization for once, but still... It's the Browns. Like Watson and Mahomes landing spots a lot and sets them up with good chances to develop, but they are hardly slam dunks to succeed at the next level. Bears are a mess and no idea what their brass was thinking, at least Trubisky can sit a little while behind Glennon to get seasoned.

Top 3 picks look like great options. Here's hoping Mixon, Cook and Kamara/others land in some great spots tonight.

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46 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

The injuries are fluky. I'd see this as a buying opp for Keenan. People are down on him due to an ACL and ruptured spleen and they just spent a high pick on a WR. The hit rate of 1st round WRs is like 50%, right? And they don't all break out as rookies. Personally, I wasn't high on Williams, so as a Keenan fan, I'm not overly worried. I'll be putting in offers where I don't have him and targeting him in redraft. 

Keenan Allen could have major value this year.  I'd love to have him as my 3rd WR.  Last year I managed to get Demaryius Thomas as my 3rd WR and was loaded.

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18 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Bad year to need a WR, Mike Williams and John Ross fantasy value got torpedoed IMO. Howard landed nicely, but the rest of the TE's I'm a lot less excited about. Lots of mouths to feed in N.Y. and Eli is no spring chicken. Njoku might end up ok in the long run since the Browns actually seem like a competent organization for once, but still... It's the Browns. Like Watson and Mahomes landing spots a lot and sets them up with good chances to develop, but they are hardly slam dunks to succeed at the next level. Bears are a mess and no idea what their brass was thinking, at least Trubisky can sit a little while behind Glennon to get seasoned.

Top 3 picks look like great options. Here's hoping Mixon, Cook and Kamara/others land in some great spots tonight.

Idk, I actually think Ross could be good in Cincy. AJ takes all the pressure, and Ross will be able to carve up the 2nd CB for most teams. This hurts Boyd a lot though.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

The injuries are fluky. I'd see this as a buying opp for Keenan. People are down on him due to an ACL and ruptured spleen and they just spent a high pick on a WR. The hit rate of 1st round WRs is like 50%, right? And they don't all break out as rookies. Personally, I wasn't high on Williams, so as a Keenan fan, I'm not overly worried. I'll be putting in offers where I don't have him and targeting him in redraft. 

FWIW I thought he got overdrafted in the WSLs given his concerns, but agree that the pendulum might swing too far the other way now and he might be a bargain come the summer. If he falls outside the top 25 WR in redrafts I'll be all over him.

Rishard Matthews is another guy whose stock is going to get unfairly crushed. I thought a WR30 price pre-draft was a little bit rich, but think he might fall to closer to WR50 and I'd be all-in on him there, for all the same reasons as with Keenan (although I do like Davis' NFL prospects quite a bit more than Williams').

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Winston now has 2 great wrs.  2 very good tes.  Hes gonna be awesome next year

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25 minutes ago, TheFanatic said:

A team that hasn't thrown the ball to the RB in 6 years is going to all of the sudden have Edgerin James or Marshall Faulk in the back field. That's what you come up with?

Teams draft players all the time and intend to use them a certain way and that doesn't always happen. Tavon Austin? Teams also reach for players that they want to use but don't use properly. Like teams that play a 3-4 but draft a guy high that is better suited for the 4-3. 

Cam is top 2 or 3 every year for 6 years in attempts by a QB. So you expect in year 7, he's going to be Tom Brady and stand in the pocket and check down to the RB? I've got 6 years of stats. You've got, "But, but, but, they drafted him high." High draft pics bust all the time. I don't think the guy is going to be a bust. I just think he went to a terrible landing spot. 

YES. Thats exactly it. Thats why they drafted him 8th overall and the coach came out and said he will use him like they did at Stanford. Thats why they didnt wait for a more traditional pound the gaps back like Cook or Kamara. 

 

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1 minute ago, Mavis said:

YES. Thats exactly it. Thats why they drafted him 8th overall and the coach came out and said he will use him like they did at Stanford. Thats why they didnt wait for a more traditional pound the gaps back like Cook or Kamara. 

 

Cook is questionable but Kamara is not a between the tackles runner whatsoever. He's less of an inside runner than McCaffery.

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1 minute ago, Mavis said:

YES. Thats exactly it. Thats why they drafted him 8th overall and the coach came out and said he will use him like they did at Stanford. Thats why they didnt wait for a more traditional pound the gaps back like Cook or Kamara. 

 

Coaches call plays. They don't run them. Cam may get a play where McAffery is the #2 option if #1 isn't open. But Cam may decide that there is a juicy running lane and take that instead of the check down. Last I checked, there isn't a coach, GM or scout in the league that lines up under center since Peyton retired. 

But hey, if you think that in one offseason that Cam Newton is going to change into Big Ben or Tom Brady after 6 years of running the ball 90 times a year (and in 5 of those years over 100 times) because they drafted a guy 8th, then by all means believe that. How high did they draft Cam again? 

Also, what is the success rate of first round picks? Is it still at about 50%? So right. So this is absolutely a sure thing. No doubt about it. 

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Cam has terrible touch on those short throws. And it's not just that he is predisposed to take off and run when a play breaks down. It's that he is also predisposed to look further downfield in those spots (not a terrible thing). After a few years of watching him I'm not sure he knows you're allowed to check down. I don't think CMC will be a bust but I definitely have some concerns. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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14 minutes ago, TheFanatic said:

Coaches call plays. They don't run them. Cam may get a play where McAffery is the #2 option if #1 isn't open. But Cam may decide that there is a juicy running lane and take that instead of the check down. Last I checked, there isn't a coach, GM or scout in the league that lines up under center since Peyton retired. 

But hey, if you think that in one offseason that Cam Newton is going to change into Big Ben or Tom Brady after 6 years of running the ball 90 times a year (and in 5 of those years over 100 times) because they drafted a guy 8th, then by all means believe that. How high did they draft Cam again? 

Also, what is the success rate of first round picks? Is it still at about 50%? So right. So this is absolutely a sure thing. No doubt about it. 

So your argument is Cam is not going to run the game plan the coaches do? Also, you act like dumping off to a playmaker is a tough decision to make for Cam. You are now combining two conversations. You are trying to argue McCaffery being a sure thing instead of if they plan to throw with him. Its typical of people who have an embarrassing point of view, they change the point of the discussion. 

When speaking about first-rounder Christian McCaffrey, Panthers GM Dave Gettleman compared him to Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin.

"It doesn’t happen very often," Gettleman said. "The best tackle-box runner I’ve ever seen is Curtis Martin out of Pitt. Christian is right there with him. Running in that tackle box takes unique vision and unique quickness, and he’s got it. Curtis had it, and he had a great career – a Hall of Fame career – and this kid’s got those kind of skills." That's a lofty comparison. Carolina has talked about "evolving" as an offense all offseason, trying to take some pressure off Cam Newton, and McCaffrey's unique skill set should allow it to happen.

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13 minutes ago, TheFanatic said:

Coaches call plays. They don't run them. Cam may get a play where McAffery is the #2 option if #1 isn't open. But Cam may decide that there is a juicy running lane and take that instead of the check down. Last I checked, there isn't a coach, GM or scout in the league that lines up under center since Peyton retired. 

But hey, if you think that in one offseason that Cam Newton is going to change into Big Ben or Tom Brady after 6 years of running the ball 90 times a year (and in 5 of those years over 100 times) because they drafted a guy 8th, then by all means believe that. How high did they draft Cam again? 

Also, what is the success rate of first round picks? Is it still at about 50%? So right. So this is absolutely a sure thing. No doubt about it. 

And Cam may get a play where McCaffrey isn't option #1, #2, or #3, received pressure in the pocket, escapes, and finds McCaffrey releasing down the sideline for a 60 yard TD.  This hypothetical junk about how Cam's 5.5 rushes per game are going to cause McCaffrey to lose 2 catches, 192 yards, and 2 TD's is silliness.  Does a rushing QB potentially limit the RB's output?  Yes.  Is it a death sentence?  No.  And could the threat of Cam running the ball actually benefit a space player such as McCaffrey?  Certainly.

I don't think anybody here has guaranteed success for McCaffrey.  But his ability in the passing game would lead one to believe that he's a very safe ppr prospect. 

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Watching Green Bay closely....Ty Montgomery's value has a lot on the line today...

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1 minute ago, Mavis said:

Also, you act like dumping off to a playmaker is a tough decision to make for Cam.

I've always thought so. He will definitely have to adjust his game. 

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Is Yeldon even a good 3rd down back? I wouldn't take it for granted that Fournette doesn't take 3rd downs as well with the investment they've made in him. He didn't get asked to be a receiver in college, but from the few receptions I've seen there's at least something there to work with. 

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Depending on Mixon's landing spot I'm seriously considering Corey Davis at 1.2.  Cook's landing spot could throw a wrench into the thought, but I'm down on him for several reasons.

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43 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Rishard Matthews is another guy whose stock is going to get unfairly crushed. I thought a WR30 price pre-draft was a little bit rich, but think he might fall to closer to WR50 and I'd be all-in on him there, for all the same reasons as with Keenan (although I do like Davis' NFL prospects quite a bit more than Williams').

:yes:  I tried to acquire Rishard a few weeks ago, at a price I thought possibly was overpaying.  Now I plan to wait a little bit and then acquire him as a WR4 type. 

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Depending on Mixon's landing spot I'm seriously considering Corey Davis at 1.2.  Cook's landing spot could throw a wrench into the thought, but I'm down on him for several reasons.

I'm praying to the Fantasy Gawds that GB drafts Cook to kick off day 2!

Tex

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Depending on Mixon's landing spot I'm seriously considering Corey Davis at 1.2.  Cook's landing spot could throw a wrench into the thought, but I'm down on him for several reasons.

In PPR, I'm thinking he may be 1.1.  The thought of locking down the top target for a rising talent in Mariota is tough to pass on.

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34 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

And Cam may get a play where McCaffrey isn't option #1, #2, or #3, received pressure in the pocket, escapes, and finds McCaffrey releasing down the sideline for a 60 yard TD.  This hypothetical junk about how Cam's 5.5 rushes per game are going to cause McCaffrey to lose 2 catches, 192 yards, and 2 TD's is silliness.  Does a rushing QB potentially limit the RB's output?  Yes.  Is it a death sentence?  No.  And could the threat of Cam running the ball actually benefit a space player such as McCaffrey?  Certainly.

I don't think anybody here has guaranteed success for McCaffrey.  But his ability in the passing game would lead one to believe that he's a very safe ppr prospect. 

I never said he would be a bust. I just said I don't like his situation. You just said that a rushing QB can limit a RB's output. That's exactly what I'm saying too. I love the player, but think he would have a higher ceiling on another team. Can you honestly say that you would rather have McAffery on the Panthers over the Colts?

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38 minutes ago, Mavis said:

So your argument is Cam is not going to run the game plan the coaches do? Also, you act like dumping off to a playmaker is a tough decision to make for Cam. You are now combining two conversations. You are trying to argue McCaffery being a sure thing instead of if they plan to throw with him. Its typical of people who have an embarrassing point of view, they change the point of the discussion. 

When speaking about first-rounder Christian McCaffrey, Panthers GM Dave Gettleman compared him to Hall of Fame RB Curtis Martin.

"It doesn’t happen very often," Gettleman said. "The best tackle-box runner I’ve ever seen is Curtis Martin out of Pitt. Christian is right there with him. Running in that tackle box takes unique vision and unique quickness, and he’s got it. Curtis had it, and he had a great career – a Hall of Fame career – and this kid’s got those kind of skills." That's a lofty comparison. Carolina has talked about "evolving" as an offense all offseason, trying to take some pressure off Cam Newton, and McCaffrey's unique skill set should allow it to happen.

My argument is sound. A running QB limits the upside of a RB. Simple as that. On top of that, dumping off to the RB is not a simple decision for Cam. Either that, or he just decided not to do it very much for 6 years. It must be that. Most guys just flip a switch after 6 years and change the way they play.

Anointing the guy for the hall because he was drafted 8th is idiotic. As is quoting a GM an hour after the draft. I mean really? That's what you got? The GM of the coach of the team that drafted him? What, you couldn't find a quote from his mother? I'll consider that quote by the GM as even remotely valid as an argument if you can show me a single quote by any GM, the day of the draft, from any draft in the history of the league that has anything negative to say about a player that was drafted. It could be a quote about Vince Young, or Akili Smith, or Tim Couch or any player drafted ever. Show me just one negative quote. One. 

And the irony is you used the word "embarrassing." 

Let me ask a serious question. Where do you think McAffery would perform better in fantasy football, with the Panthers or with the Colts?

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1 hour ago, need2know said:

Winston now has 2 great wrs.  2 very good tes.  Hes gonna be awesome next year

2 very good YOUNG TEs that can both still develop into great TEs.

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1 hour ago, steelers1080 said:

Idk, I actually think Ross could be good in Cincy. AJ takes all the pressure, and Ross will be able to carve up the 2nd CB for most teams. This hurts Boyd a lot though.

I think he'll be very good football wise, but not much more than a WR2-3 fantasy wise. He's going to be 2nd fiddle to AJ who's not old yet, Eifert takes the TD's, their O'line is a mess, and Dalton sucked at the deep ball last year. He's going to need a lot of YAC on short passes to be a fantasy force IMO.

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42 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Depending on Mixon's landing spot I'm seriously considering Corey Davis at 1.2.  Cook's landing spot could throw a wrench into the thought, but I'm down on him for several reasons.

Couldn't agree more. I'm sitting at 1.2 in one of my NON-ppr leagues and was expecting to chose between whoever wasn't taken from Fournette and Cooks. But, unless Cooks ends up somewhere close to ideal, I'm thinking it's more sound to go with whoever is available between Founette and Davis.

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30 minutes ago, TheFanatic said:

I never said he would be a bust. I just said I don't like his situation. You just said that a rushing QB can limit a RB's output. That's exactly what I'm saying too. I love the player, but think he would have a higher ceiling on another team. Can you honestly say that you would rather have McAffery on the Panthers over the Colts?

Taking an elite checkdown receiver might be a way to extend Cam's career. You can look at his prior 6 years, but in a lot of ways that history is not maintainable. He'll have to adapt. Vick didn't really throw to RB at ATL (Dunn didn't break 30 receptions, I think), but he threw a lot to McCoy. Well there's two questions will McCaffery get a healthy number of receptions and does it limit his upside. I think the first question the answer is yes. Upside, maybe, but tough to compare to a potentially elite situation like Colts, as most situations would be significantly worse than that. 

ETA: Vick is a bad example since he was such a different player in ATL.

Edited by thriftyrocker

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A.J. Green will love the attention that defenses will need to pay towards John Ross.  When they use the term 'taking the lid of the defense', Ross will deliver this for the Bengals offense.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

FWIW I thought he got overdrafted in the WSLs given his concerns, but agree that the pendulum might swing too far the other way now and he might be a bargain come the summer. If he falls outside the top 25 WR in redrafts I'll be all over him.

Rishard Matthews is another guy whose stock is going to get unfairly crushed. I thought a WR30 price pre-draft was a little bit rich, but think he might fall to closer to WR50 and I'd be all-in on him there, for all the same reasons as with Keenan (although I do like Davis' NFL prospects quite a bit more than Williams').

What concerns? Another lacerated spleen? Doesn't concern me one bit.

As for Matthews, I guess I just don't trust the TEN passing game like I trust Rivers/Whisenhunt. Matthews/Mariota don't have the Keenan/Rivers rapport, either. So I can see why his stock is getting hurt. He's also never been a big volume guy, so his upside was always in question. However, I do agree that it's always a good gamble to bet on the veteran maintaining more targets than people expect when a rookie enters the equation. 

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Just now, Faust said:

A.J. Green will love the attention that defenses will need to pay towards John Ross.  When they use the term 'taking the lid of the defense', Ross will deliver this for the Bengals offense.

The question is will defenses really fear the Ross/Dalton combo that much or would they rather double AJ and dare Dalton to try to throw it deep to Ross? Personally, I'm not enthused about this landing spot for Ross.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Depending on Mixon's landing spot I'm seriously considering Corey Davis at 1.2.  Cook's landing spot could throw a wrench into the thought, but I'm down on him for several reasons.

Ha, way to stick to your convictions.

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