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Post draft, projected first round fantasy rookie draft (1 Viewer)

KellysHeroes

Footballguy
I'll give it a go but still digesting the draft

1.01 a) Fournette (even in PPR I like him more than McCaffrey; I don't think McCaffrey fits into Cam's game and Fournette going to be feed a lot, throw in they drafted an OT to boot).

1.01 b) Davis, Tenn and rising star QB gets a WR1.  

1.03 McCaffrey, again don't think its fits their style but draft at #8 their sure going to try.

1.04 Cook, will rise to the top of that RB chart

1.05 Kamara should be a PPR machine in that offense

Also, feel free to add you leagues Rookie Draft

 
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Fournette, McCaffrey,  //  Davis, Mixon, Cook

(Followed by Williams, Ross, Kamara, Howard, Engram, Njoku)

 
Assuming non PPR.  In PPR 1&2 are very close.

1. Fournette

2. McCaffrey

3. Davis

4. Mixon

5a Cook

5b. Howard

I hate the Cook to Vikes so I see a huge drop to from 4 to 5.

 
Here is my first stab at a post NFL draft ranking

2017 post NFL draft

Tier One - possible top 12 players at their position within the next 3 years

(5) Corey Davis Titans
(8) Christian McCaffrey Panthers
(4) Leonard Fournette Jaguars
(41) Dalvin Cook Vikings
(48) Joe Mixon Bengals
(22) Evan Engram Giants
(17) OJ Howard Buccaneers
(29) David Njoku Browns

Tier Two - possible top 24 upside within their first 3 seasons

(7) Mike Williams Chargers
(9) John Ross Bengals
(86) Kareem Hunt KC Chiefs
(37) Zay Jones Bills
(40) Curtis Samuel Panthers

(12) Deshaun Watson Texans
(10) Patrick Mahomes KC Chiefs
(2) Mitch Trubisky Bears
(52) Deshone Kizer Browns

(69) Cooper Kupp Rams
(89) D'Onta Foreman Texans
(62) JuJu Smith-Schuster Steelers
(72) Taywan Taylor Titans
(82) Carlos Henderson Broncos
(84) Chris Godwin Buccaneers
(67) Alvin Kamara Saints
(79) Ardarious Stewart Jets
(44) Gerald Everett Rams
(45) Adam Shaheen Bears

Tier two players who haven't been drafted yet who might still might be ranked there with a good fit, but most likely tier 3

Samaje Perine
Marlon Mack

Tier Three - possible top 36 upside withing their first 3 seasons

First here are the players drafted already that I haven't watched enough to have much of an opinion, so just listed in the order they were drafted for now, then followed by my pre NFL draft ranking for the players I have watched but haven't been drafted yet.

(87) Davis Webb Giants
(96) Kenny Golladay Lions
(98) Chad Williams Cardinals
(100) Jonnu Smith Titans
(104) CJ Beathard 49ers
(105) James Conner Steelers
(106) Amara Darboh

Bucky Hodges
Jeremy McNichols
Aaron Jones
Josh Reynolds
Wayne Gallman
Brad Kaaya
Dede Westbrook
Jamal Williams
George Kittle
Jordan Leggett
Isaiah Ford
Jake Butt
Amba Etta-Tawo
Elijah Hood
Corey Clement
Chris Carson

Not that much has changed from my pre-draft ranking, maybe it will more with time to think about it. 

I dropped Cook because him falling out of the 1st round and not an ideal landing spot.

I moved Mixon up to tier one because I like his fit with the Bengals and they drafted him high enough for me to not be scared away. If he would have fallen to day 3 and a lot of other RB selected ahead of him then I would have kept him in tier two.

Kareem Hunt gets perhaps the biggest boost from my pre draft rankings as I do really like the fit for him there with Andy Reid.

 
My top 6 are sill occupied by the same 6 players. Order is a bit different.  PPR.

1) Fournette

2) Davis

3) McCaffrey

4) Mixon

5) Williams

6) Cook

 
Tier 1

Somewhat interchangeable among the top 3.  Pretty large gap after that.

1.  Corey Davis.  Top 5 pick.  Clear #1 target on the team.  Passes the eye test.  Paired with a stud young QB.  Nothing not to like here.  This was the ideal landing spot.

2.  Christian McCaffrey. Went to an offense that is only 1 year removed from being dominant and with a top 10 selection, hes going to be the guy.  The lack of goal-line work was already built into McCaffrey's value, so its not really a big deal.  Offense has a chance to be special, and McCaffrey has a chance to be the centerpiece of that.  

3.  Leonard Fournette.  Still has the potential of being a ####ty offense, but Fournette is the guy and I imagine they will be building around him for years to come.  Hope he can hold up.

Tier 2

Interchangeable as well depending on your needs / preferences.

4.  Dalvin Cook.  Vikings were the 2nd worst RB landing spot among teams that actually needed a RB.  Bad O-Line, bad offense, bad running production, QB uncertainty.  Only positive is that he should run away with the job and he is still super talented.

5.  Joe Mixon.  The actual worst RB landing spot.  Terrible O-Line and lots of other talented skill players.  Bernard is not going to go away.   

6.  Mike Williams.  #2 WR on the team.  Lots of mid-level talent that did decent last year and could see Williams getting Treadwell'd (cant find a role cause others outperform him in training camp).  QB situation will be in flux in a few years. 

7.  OJ Howard.  If you really need a TE or are in a TE-premium league, I would easily move him to 4.  Lots of targets to share, but this team made Brate a productive TE last year and OJ Howard is a stud.  Definitely a + landing spot for him.

 
I'm not a fan of cook but why is his spot in Minnesota worse than Mixon in Cincy?  I'd keep them pretty close together. 

1. Fournette, Davis

2. McCaffrey, cook, Mixon, Williams

3. Howard, njoku, Engram, Ross, hunt, Kamara, Watson

4. Jones, Samuel, Mahomes, kupp, juju, 

5. Trubisky, foreman, Taylor, Golladay,

I'm trying to figure out where to slot the idp. I think I'll put Reddick just above foster and Davis close behind him.  All in tier 3, depending on your scoring.  I just can't put Garrett that high but he's in tier 4. Safeties aren't worth much in my leagues but adams sure is intriguing - tier 5 in most leagues.  

 
Damn, Bia. Zero love for the NCAA all-time leading rusher.
I presume you mean Pumphrey?

I have not seen him play so I am completely indifferent about him. My list was already long, I didn't include guys on the watch list that I haven't gotten around to yet.

 
Fournette

Mixon - high risk huge reward pick

Davis

Trade out

Howard - really safe pick

Cook - shoulder issues, off field issues, risky pick

McCaffrey

 
Surprised Williams isn't getting more love, rivers should have a few years left. I think he has a pretty safe floor and should produce out if the gate. 

Davis

Fournette

CMC

williams

mixon

ross

cook

hunt

howard/njoku/engram in any order

move up the te in premium leagues, and Cook is ranked low based more on my opinion of him than landing spot, although the oline in minny needs a lot of help

 
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0.5 PPR.  Only through two picks:

1.01 McCaffrey

1.02 Fournette (this was my pick and very happy he landed to me)

 
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Damn, Bia. Zero love for the NCAA all-time leading rusher.
If anyone would like to discuss Pumphrey I have started watching him this morning. And I see some really nice things, his change of direction ability, his vision and timing are excellent, I can see why people like this player. He reminds me a bit of Warrick Dunn although not as powerful. He has kind of an upright running style that reminds me of DeAndre Washington that I do not like. He gets arm tackled by a defender who is still being blocked. He goes down very easily if the defense can get a piece of him, and this is against San Jose.

He has this funny hop step he does right before receiving the pitch on several runs that I don't quite understand why he does that. It is a wasted move and also a tell for him taking the run outside. He drops an easy reception in this game. My impression so far is that he is a better runner than receiver.

There is a lot to like about him, there is some stuff I don't like as well. I am going to watch some more though as I want to watch Siragusa as well. Only watched the Cal and San Jose game so far. Maybe the San Jose game wasn't one of his better ones. He has some really awesome runs in the Cal game.

 
1. Fournette

2. Davis

3. McCaffrey

4. Cook

5. M. Williams 

Having a tough time with Mixon. If I had a "luxury" first round choice, I'd consider pulling the trigger, but if I have a lousy team and am picking high in the draft, the risk factor is just too high for me.

 
Fournette

Davis

McCaffrey

Mixon

Cook
I agree with this.

Fournette - I think it takes him a year or 2 to really become a top 5 fantasy back. Yeldon will still get 3rd down work, their line isn't that good and we need to see if Bortles can rebound. Fournette will need to improve his pass blocking, receiving and either hope Bortles bounces back or they improve the line, then he will be a no doubter top 5 guy.

Davis - I always thought he was in the conversation for being one of the top picks in dynasty rookie drafts, how early he got drafted and the landing spot confirmed it. I can't kill anyone for taking Davis ahead of Fournette

Tier break IMO

McCaffrey - This is also going to take a year or 2 to play out if you want a top 5 back, he is clearly behind Stewart. He probably won't get any shortage carries this year or next, because of Stewart, and Cam. I really think the Panthers are doing right by Cam, by getting him some weapons and making it easier for him to stay in the pocket and not run as much, I do think it will take a year or so for Cam to learn to dump it off to McCaffrey instead of running.

Mixon - I love this spot for him, it won't be until the end of the year, but he will over take Jeremy HIll. The only thing that stopped him from being higher is Bernard and the fact that the Bengals are still loading up on offense. I don't think you will see him catch a lot of passes.

Cook - I have never been sold on him, if any of the other backs on this list landed with Minnesota I would have loved it. I think Cook starts as a 3rd down/CoP guy and I am not sure if the Vikings will ever not have a different goal line back.

 
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Extending beyond top 5 in tiers:

1-2

Fournette

Davis

3-6

McCaffrey

Mixon

Cook

Williams

7-8

Howard

Ross

Big group 9-15 in tier 4

Njoku

Kamara

Foreman

Hunt

Godwin

Engram

Ju Ju Shuster

Wildcard depends on landing spot- Perine

 
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I'll tinker with this a ton more still but my top3 are unchanged.

Davis, Fournette, McCaffrey then it gets really complicated for me.  After those 3, there's 7 other guys that could be in almost any order for me right now.  These trades for QB's are consideration, all these high picked TE's (even higher than most of the "other" RB's) makes me want to move them up a bit especially in my 2+TE leagues.  I thought that Mixon being taken in the 2nd would give me confidence but I'm actually more concerned than ever about him.  In a league I have #1, #5, #6, #7 and I need RB's I might take him here as a luxury but other than that I don't think I'll have him in my top8 or so.  

Bia your draft spots are a little off from the real slot they were taken just so you know.  Mostly the TE's that I noticed right away then I stopped looking at that number.  

 
things change fast in the NFL those of you bemoaning the Vikings Oline, IIRC they were devasted by injuries, Just drafted a Center and signed Riley Rieff who is a solid pro to play tackle.  I think the over reaction on Cook is puzzling. While he probably splits with L.Murray this year, its truly a one year deal signed by Murray with team options.....

 
Surprised Williams isn't getting more love, rivers should have a few years left. I think he has a pretty safe floor and should produce out if the gate. 

Davis

Fournette

CMC

williams

mixon

ross

cook

hunt

howard/njoku/engram in any order

move up the te in premium leagues, and Cook is ranked low based more on my opinion of him than landing spot, although the oline in minny needs a lot of help
I agree.  Williams landed in a great spot with a great QB, and Allen's struggled with staying healthy.  I have him closer to Davis (more 1a/1b for WRs) than I do Ross.  

 
Can you post a link of your draft to this thread? Would like to get this thread to the top of the forum and get others to post. Many drafts start today and tomorrow. Thanks. 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/755473-official-post-your-2017-rookie-draft/#comment-20060282
I can't because ours is conducted over email and then we manually input it into sportsline.  I can post the whole thing as it goes thought. We are through 5 picks so far...

1.1 McCaffrey

1.2 Fournette

1.3 Cook

1.4 Davis

1.5 Mixon

 
things change fast in the NFL those of you bemoaning the Vikings Oline, IIRC they were devasted by injuries, Just drafted a Center and signed Riley Rieff who is a solid pro to play tackle.  I think the over reaction on Cook is puzzling. While he probably splits with L.Murray this year, its truly a one year deal signed by Murray with team options.....
It is puzzling. Not hard to believe they may draft OL or sign some more next offseason before Cook can take off. The assumption that all rookies must perform in their first year is puzzling on its face. 

 
Extending beyond top 5 in tiers:

1-2

Fournette

Davis

3-6

McCaffrey

Mixon

Cook

Williams

7-8

Howard

Ross

Big group 9-15 in tier 4

Njoku

Kamara

Foreman

Hunt

Godwin

Engram

Ju Ju Shuster

Wildcard depends on landing spot- Perine
Fournette

Davis

McCaffrey

Cook

Mixon

Williams

Ross

Kamara

Njoku

Howard

Engram

Ju Ju Shuster

Foreman

Hunt

Godwin

Williams (SF)

Kupp

 
McNichols looks like he might start day 1 on one of the potentially best offenses in the league. WOW

 
IMO there is a clear top 4 right now: Fournette, Cook, Mixon, Davis. The order to rank them depends on league parameters and franchise makeup.

I think McNichols would be #5 over McCaffrey if TB releases Martin before the season. But I expect Martin to play in 2017 and then be released if McNichols looks good. That could still warrant the #5 ranking, maybe not.

I also like Perine a lot, and see him as a tier 2 player.

I am lukewarm on McCaffrey. Initially, there was a thought that he might split out to the slot and play as a hybrid RB/WR. Then the team drafted a hybrid RB/WR in the second round. Combining that with the Cam-related issues (inaccuracy, TD vulture) and the possibility that Stewart sticks around beyond 2017 pushes McCaffrey out of the top tier for me. At least as of right now.

These are my top 7 non-QBs at this point. I play in one Super Flex league where I assume Trubisky and Watson will be first round picks and Mahomes and Kizer will be NLT than high second rounders.

Based on the conversation in this forum, I think Mike Williams, Ross, Kamara, and Hunt will be overrated.

I'm not sure yet how to slot in the TEs, but I doubt I would take any TE before #8 at the earliest.

 
things change fast in the NFL those of you bemoaning the Vikings Oline, IIRC they were devasted by injuries, Just drafted a Center and signed Riley Rieff who is a solid pro to play tackle.  I think the over reaction on Cook is puzzling. While he probably splits with L.Murray this year, its truly a one year deal signed by Murray with team options.....
:goodposting:

The Vikings had 2 good OL last year, G Boone and C/G Berger. They signed free agents LT Reiff and RT Remmers, and traded up to draft C Elflein, last year's Rimington award winner as best C. So they have upgraded the 3 OL positions that needed it. I think Cook takes the lead in this backfield by mid-season and Murray is released after 2017.

 
Well that is all she wrote except for the UDFAs

My list of players to watch grew a lot today.

2017 post NFL draft

Tier One 

(5) Corey Davis Titans
(8) Christian McCaffrey Panthers
(4) Leonard Fournette Jaguars
(41) Dalvin Cook Vikings
(48) Joe Mixon Bengals
(22) Evan Engram Giants
(17) OJ Howard Buccaneers
(29) David Njoku Browns

Tier Two 

(7) Mike Williams Chargers
(9) John Ross Bengals
(86) Kareem Hunt KC Chiefs
(37) Zay Jones Bills
(40) Curtis Samuel Panthers

(12) Deshaun Watson Texans
(10) Patrick Mahomes KC Chiefs
(2) Mitch Trubisky Bears
(52) Deshone Kizer Browns

(69) Cooper Kupp Rams
(89) D'Onta Foreman Texans
(62) JuJu Smith-Schuster Steelers
(67) Alvin Kamara Saints
(72) Taywan Taylor Titans
(114) Samaje Perine Redskins
(143) Marlon Mack Colts
(132) Donnell Pumphrey Eagles
(82) Carlos Henderson Broncos
(84) Chris Godwin Buccaneers
(117) Josh Reynolds Rams
(44) Gerald Everett Rams

Tier three 

(45) Adam Shaheen Bears
(110) Dede Westbrook Jaguars
(134) Jamaal Williams Packers
(201) Bucky Hodges Vikings
(150) Jordan Leggett Jets
(79) Ardarious Stewart Jets
(144) George Kittle 49ers
(182) Aaron Jones Packers
(162) Jeremy McNichols Buccaneers
(174) Eric Soubert Falcons
(143) Jake Butt Broncos
(140) Wayne Gallman Giants
(87) Davis Webb Giants
(249) Christopher Carson Seahawks
(237) Isaiah Ford Dolphins
(154) Jeremy Sprinkle Redskins
(242) Elijah Hood Raiders
(215) Brad Kaaya Lions

Watch list

(96) Kenny Golladay Lions
(98) Chad Williams Cardinals
(100) Jonnu Smith Titans
(104) CJ Beathard 49ers
(105) James Conner Steelers
(106) Amara Darboh Seahawks
(117) Mack Hollins Eagles
(119) Tarik Cohen Bears
(121) Joe Williams 49ers
(127) Michael Roberts Lions
(128) Josh Malone Bengals
(133) Ryan Switzer Cowbos
(135) Joshua Dobbs Steelers
(139) Jehu Chesson Chiefs
(141) Chad Hansen Jets
(156) Brian Hill Falcons
(166) Shelton Gibson Eagles
(170) Rodney Adams Vikings
(171) Nathan Peterman Bills
(172) Isiah McKenzie  Broncos
(175) DeAngelo Yancy Packers
(177) Trent Taylor 49ers
(179) TJ Logan Cardinals
(188) Elijah McGuire Jets
(203) DeAngelo Henderson Broncos
(207) Brandon Wilson Bengals
(209) Robert Davis Redskins
(219) Stacy Coley Vikings
(226) David Moore Seahawks
(238) Devante Mays Packers
(239) Noah Brown Cowboys
(241) Khalfani Muhammad Titans
(247) Malachai Dupree Packers
(251) Mason Scherck Bengals
(252) Matt Dayes Browns
(253) CHad Kelly Broncos

 
So far. 6 picks. 0.5 PPR. Standard scoring. Players typically kept 3-6 years based on salary cap.

1.1 McCaffrey

1.2 Fournette

1.3 Cook

1.4 Davis

1.5 Mixon

1.6 OJ Howard

 
Ok so rough thought:

1. Davis- I think he is WR prospect just a notch below AJ Green or Julio. This guy is a B+ with a TO ceiling. Pairing him with one of the best young QBs, best young OLs and no other player on the roster capable of being a #1. This has the potential to be a cornerstone of a dynasty team for 10 years. 

2. Mixon- Best overall RB in the class, Bengals jumped on him quick. Hill is out of town. Gio had his injury. A team doesn't spend a 2nd round pick on a guy with the kind of baggage and doesn't play him. The OL is a mess right now, but based on recent history, I trust that the Bengals were work to address it. Unlike the Jags, the Bengals have a 3 year track record of good RB production. John Ross  and AJ Green are going to scare DBs and should create plenty of space for Mixon to run and catch. 

At this point, I think you can likely get more in a trade than you could from the pick. I would try to deal. 

3. Fournette- Scheme fit is perfect. No doubt the Coughlin is going to to want to pound Fournette 20 times a game. I am seeing flashes of Gurley- both 2015 and 2016. There is so much potential here but we have a bit of a chicken and egg situation in Jacksonville. For the last 2 years, they have been about the least productive backfield in football. Is this because Yeldon, Ivory, Gerhart, Denard, etc. were just bad players or was it because the offense is significantly flawed by a weak OL, and weak QB. Yeldon rarely ever had room to run and I'm not  sure Fournette will either. I will give bonus points for taking Cam Robinson in the 2nd. At least they recognize that the need to support Fournette. 

4. McCaffrey- Love the player, hate the fit. Stewart is still likely to see a lot of touches. Samuels could also interfere with touches- depending on how they use him. McCaffrey profiles as a guy that can kick into the slot and be like a more explosive version of Edelman/Landry. That doesn't seem to align with Cam's strength. Cam seems to excel on the deep throws and I don't recall seeing him hit many short/intermediate timing routes. He definitely has a Westbrook like ceiling, but also a Gio like floor. 

5. Marlon Mack- What's not to like? Good speed and good burst. NFL RB size. He showed some pass catching skills. We can't really expect Gore to continue to hold that job. There is a big opening in an explosive offense with a great young QB. There is certainly the chance Mack is a total bust, but he also has a huge ceiling. 

Having trouble sorting out here between Cook, Ross, Njoku, Hunt and Godwin. 

Eta: Just did some research. Mack had a bad fumbling problem and maybe isn't quite the pass catcher I thought. I'm pulling back a bit on him.

 
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Ok so rough thought:

1. Davis- I think he is WR prospect just a notch below AJ Green or Julio. This guy is a B+ with a TO ceiling. Pairing him with one of the best young QBs, best young OLs and no other player on the roster capable of being a #1. This has the potential to be a cornerstone of a dynasty team for 10 years. 

2. Mixon- Best overall RB in the class, Bengals jumped on him quick. Hill is out of town. Gio had his injury and really hasn't been given. A team doesn't spend a 2nd round pick on a guy with the kind of baggage and doesn't play him. The OL is a mess right now, but based on recent history, I trust that the Bengals were work to address it. Unlike the Jags, the Bengals have a 3 year track record of good RB production. John Ross  and AJ Green are going to scare DBs and should create plenty of space for Mixon to run and catch. 

At this point, I think you can likely get more in a trade than you could from the pick. I would try to deal. 

3. Fournette- Scheme fit is perfect. No doubt the Coughlin is going to to want to pound Fournette 20 times a game. I am seeing flashes of Gurley- both 2015 and 2016. There is so much potential here but we have a bit of a chicken and egg situation in Jacksonville. For the last 2 years, they have been about the least productive backfield in football. Is this because Yeldon, Ivory, Gerhart, Denard, etc. were just bad players or was it because the offense is significantly flawed by a weak OL, and weak QB. Yeldon rarely ever had room to run and I'm not  sure Fournette will either. I will give bonus points for taking Cam Robinson in the 2nd. At least they recognize that the need to support Fournette. 

4. McCaffrey- Love the player, hate the fit. Stewart is still likely to see a lot of touches. Samuels could also interfere with touches- depending on how they use him. McCaffrey profiles as a guy that can kick into the slot and be like a more explosive version of Edelman/Landry. That doesn't seem to align with Cam's strength. Cam seems to excel on the deep throws and I don't recall seeing him hit many short/intermediate timing routes. He definitely has a Westbrook like ceiling, but also a Gio like floor. 

5. Marlon Mack- What's not to like? Good speed and good burst. NFL RB size. He showed some pass catching skills. We can't really expect Gore to continue to hold that job. There is a big opening in an explosive offense with a great young QB. There is certainly the chance Mack is a total bust, but he also has a huge ceiling. 

Having trouble sorting out here between Cook, Ross, Njoku, Hunt and Godwin. 
And not a mention of Mike Williams...

 
msudaisy26 said:
Mixon - I love this spot for him, it won't be until the end of the year, but he will over take Jeremy HIll. The only thing that stopped him from being higher is Bernard and the fact that the Bengals are still loading up on offense. I don't think you will see him catch a lot of passes.
OU would often line him up as a flanker as the season went along, he is one of the best pass catching college RBs I've ever seen.  His value is in his versatility, he's not really a downhill runner despite having good size, he's better in open field with space.  He's going to be a RB that will have pass plays called for him on all downs. 

 
Nothing ground breaking (non-ppr):

Fournette

Davis

McCaffrey

Mixon

Cook

Williams

 
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I am torn between Cook and McCaffrey at 1-2. Davis is 3rd. Having picks 2 and 4 in different leagues I hope I don't need to bother ranking anything beyond those 3. I also hope I leave those drafts with one Cook and one McCaffrey.

 

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